solving the climate-energy problem
TRANSCRIPT
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Solving the Climate-Energy Problem:Germany, Europe and the World
John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre
Ottmar Edenhofer, Potsdam Institute
Sustaining the WorldBrandenburg‘s Research Contributions
3 October 2006, London
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0054Tipping Points in the Earth System
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Volume of GIS: 2.8 x 1015 m3
Time-scale 1000 years ⇒ 2.8 x 1012 m3/yr ≈ 0.1 Sv
Accelerated Greenland Melt-Down
Current volume loss: 2.2 x 1011 m3/yr ≈ 0.007 SvHas doubled over past decade
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Tibetan Plateau
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Projected Amazon Die-Back Drought of 2005
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0008
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Image: WJ Schmitz, WHOI
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Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al. 2005, GRL 32, 15707 (see also Ball 2005, Nature, August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
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The Oceans Turn Sour
One third of all anthropogenic CO2 goes into the oceans
Acidification by CO2 endangers oceans’ organisms
Riebesell et al. 2000
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0055Teleconnections and Feedbacks
ENSOTriggering
IndianMonsoon
Transformation
Bodele DustSupply Change?
Bistability ofSaharan
Vegetation
Bistability /Collapse ofAmazonian
Forest?
ReducedPerformance
of MarineCarbon Pump
TibetanAlbedo Change?
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ertzrtzertzertzetzertztzetrtzerztetzTeleconnections and Feedbacks
Atlantic DeepWater Formation
Southern Ocean Upwelling /Circumpolar Deep Water Formation
Instability of West AntarcticIce Sheet?
Instabilityof Methane
Clathrates
Instability ofGreenland Ice Sheet?
ENSOTriggeringBodele Dust
Supply Change?
Bistability ofSaharan
Vegetation
Bistability /Collapse ofAmazonian
Forest?
ReducedPerformance
of MarineCarbon Pump
TibetanAlbedo Change?
IndianMonsoon
Transformation
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Bistability ofSaharan
Vegetation
IndianMonsoon
Transformation
Bistability /Collapse ofAmazonian
Forest?
Bistability ofSaharan
Vegetation
Bodele DustSupply Change?
TibetanAlbedo Change?
Atlantic DeepWater Formation
ReducedPerformance
of MarineCarbon Pump
TibetanAlbedo Change?
ReducedPerformance
of MarineCarbon Pump
Bodele DustSupply Change?
Atlantic DeepWater Formation
ENSOTriggering
Southern Ocean Upwelling /Circumpolar Deep Water Formation
Instability of West AntarcticIce Sheet?
Instability ofGreenland Ice Sheet?
ENSOTriggering
Instability ofGreenland Ice Sheet?
Instability of West AntarcticIce Sheet?
Southern Ocean Upwelling /Circumpolar Deep Water Formation
Runaway Greenhouse Dynamics?
AnthropogenicGreenhouse Gas
Emissions
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Energy Poverty Map(Electricity Consumption, kWh per Capita, 2003)
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Mitigation Gap for the 2° C Target
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Models in the IMCP
Computational general equilibrium models (CGE)
IMACLIM-R
Static equilibrium + recursive dynamics
Simulation modelsE3MG
Initial value problems
Energy system modelsMESSAGE-MACROGET-LFLDNE21+
Cost minimization
Optimal growth modelsENTICE-BR FEEM-RICEDEMETER-1CCSAIM/Dynamic-GlobalMIND 1.1
Welfare maximization
Bottom UpTop DownCalculus
Technological detail
Department of Global Change & Social Systems
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Sour
ce: E
denh
ofer
, Les
sman
n e
t al.
2006
Mitigation Costs with Induced Technological Change
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„Some models suggest there would be no cost; others that global output could be as much as 5 % lower by the end of the century than if there were no attempt to control emissions. But most estimates are at the low end – below 1 %. The technological and economic aspects of problem are, thus, not quite challenging as many imagine. The real difficulty is political. Climate change is one of the hardest problems the world have ever faced…“
The Economist September 9th 2006, p. 9
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-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1 2 3 4 5 6
Temperature
in %
GD
P
Source: OECD (2003) and Kemfert (2004)
Economic Damages in % of GDP
Temperature Increase
Nordhaus
NaturalScientists
Kemfert (high)
Environmental Scientists
Tol
SocialScientists
Kemfert (low)
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Results for Nordhaus / Boyer damage fct.
Losses BAU: GWP - 0.84% / 8.5% (2175-2195)
Losses CBA: GWP - 0.8% / 1.8% (2050) ; Cons. - 1.2% / 3.3%(2050)
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An Overview of Geo-Engineering Options(here: including Carbon Management)
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Captured CO2 and Total CO2Emissions
Sour
ce: E
denh
ofer
, Les
sman
n et
al.
2006
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Source: Obersteiner, M., Azar, C., Möllersten, K., Riahi, K. (2002): Biomass Energy, Carbon Removal and Permanent Sequestration – A ‚Real Option‘ for Managing Climate Risk, IIASA Interim Report IR-02-042
The carbon cycle of bioenergywith carbon capture and sequestration
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Berndes et al., Biomass and Bioenergy 25 (2003)
Biomass energy supply potential(A synthesis of existing studies)
Stabilization of
GHG concentration
at 450 ppm in
2100 will require
~400 EJ biomass
energy
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Area requirement for 400 EJ biomass energy(Back-of-the-envelope calculations with three single crops)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Maize Sugar cane Poplar
Prim
ary
ener
gy y
ield
(GJ
per
ha)
High potential for carbon plantations and biofuels in Former Soviet Union and Eastern Asia (Schaeffer et al. (2006): Climate impacts of carbon and biomass plantations, GBC).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Maize Sugar cane Poplar
Mill
ion
sqkm
Area required for 400 EJ (million sqkm) Current area
1.40.2
Total forest
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Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production
Haberl et al. (2006)
Biofuel Projections for 2100: 400 EJ/yr = 7-9 GtC/yr>50% of current total HANPP
Natural (GtC/yr)ActualHuman alterationHuman harvestHuman firesTotal HANPP
Backflows
100%90%10%11%
2%23%
2%
= 270 EJ/yr(caloric) (incl. 35-55 EJ/yrbiofuels)
65.559.2
6.37.21.1
14.7
1.5
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Comparative advantagesand trade barriers in
bio-ethanol production
Henke, IfW 2005
Current production costs for bio-ethanol
Import tariffs on ethanol
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Responsibility, Innovation and Partnership
• Low Stabilisation Target: 450 ppm
• Innovation Induced by Climate Policy
• Closing the Gap between North and South
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Proposal for the German Twin Presidency
• Targets and time tables for a Kyoto Plus regime
• Extension of ETS to a global "Coalition of the Willing"
• "Technology Protocol" for Renewables
• Fair competition on the European electricity market, setup of modern and efficient network structures
• Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy
• Pilot projects for coupling bioenergy production with CCS
• Climate-energy partnerships with India, Mexico and South Africa
• National plan for adaptation to climate change