solvency ii introduction to pillar 1 ii – introduction to pillar 1 06.05.2016 . ciaráin kelly,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Solvency II – Introduction to Pillar 1
06.05.2016
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Ciaráin Kelly, FSAI
Patrick Meghen, FSAI
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter(s)
and not necessarily of the Society of Actuaries in Ireland
Presenters
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Agenda
1 Solvency II Balance Sheet
2 Valuation of Assets
3 Best Estimate Liability
4 Risk Margin
5 Internal Model v Standard Formula
6 SCR details
7 MCR
8 Own Funds
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Three Pillar Approach
Measurement of assets, liabilities and capital
Eligible capital
Technical provisions
Capital requirements
Asset and liability valuation
Pillar 1
Supervisory review process
Corporate governance
Internal control
Risk management
ORSA
Pillar 2
Reporting & Disclosure
Public Disclosure
Supervisory Reporting
Pillar 3
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Capital
Balance Sheet
Total assets
Best estimate liabilities
Risk margin
MCR
Free capital
Other liabilities
At market value
Reinsurance counted as asset
Best estimate
calculation
Minimum Capital
Requirement
Allowance for cost of
capital
Solvency Capital
Requirement
Confidence level of 99.5%
over 1 year
SCR
Technical provisions
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Agenda
1 Solvency II Balance Sheet
2 Valuation of Assets
3 Best Estimate Liability
4 Risk Margin
5 Internal Model v Standard Formula
6 SCR details
7 MCR
8 Own Funds
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Asset Valuation
Key Principle – Market Value
International Accounting Standards
Reinsurance recoverables are an asset
Similar approach for other Liabilities
Total
assets
Best
estimate
liabilities
Risk margin
Free capital
Other
liabilities
SCR
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Market Principles
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Valuation Hierarchy
1. Quoted Market Prices
2. Quoted Market Prices Similar Assets
3. Alternative Valuation Methods
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Other valuation rules
Goodwill Intangibles
DAC Related
undertakings
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Agenda
1 Solvency II Balance Sheet
2 Valuation of Assets
3 Best Estimate Liability
4 Risk Margin
5 Internal Model v Standard Formula
6 SCR details
7 MCR
8 Own Funds
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Technical Provisions
Best Estimate Liability
Risk Margin
Technical Provision calculated as a whole
Total
assets
Best
estimate
liabilities
Risk margin
Free capital
Other
liabilities
SCR
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Segmentation
o Segment insurance liabilities into homogeneous risk groups
o Or by line of business at a minimum o Nature of risks not legal form o Unbundling required for contracts split across lines
of business
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Lines of Business
Life
Insurance with profit participation
Index-linked & unit-linked
Other life insurance
Non Life
Medical Expense insurance
Income protection insurance
Workers compensation insurance
Motor Vehicle Liability
Other Motor insurance
Marine, Aviation, and Transport insurance
Fire and other damage to property insurance
General Liability insurance
Credit & Suretyship insurance
Legal Expenses insurance
Assistance
Miscellaneous Financial Loss
Health similar to
Life (SLT)
Health not similar
to Life (NSLT)
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Technical Provisions – Best Estimate liability
• Calculation:
– Cash flow projection
– All cash flows included
– Present value of cash flows
– Probability weighted – uncertainty of future cashflows
– No restrictions i.e. positive or negative
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Technical Provisions – Best Estimate liability
t Premiums Claims Expenses Investment return
Net Cashflow
Discount Factor
DiscountedCashflow
1 10.0 (4.0) (0.5) 1.0 6.5 99.0% 6.44
2 9.5 (3.5) (0.5) 1.0 6.5 98.0% 6.37
3 9.0 (3.0) (0.5) 1.0 6.5 97.1% 6.31
4 8.5 (2.5) (0.5) 1.0 6.5 96.1% 6.25
5 8.0 (2.0) (0.5) 1.0 6.5 95.1% 6.18
6 7.5 (2.0) (0.5) 1.0 6.0 94.2% 5.65
… … … … …. … …
BEL Sum (54.68)
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Assumptions
Market Consistent Best Estimate Undertaking specific – not necessarily Actual v Expected analysis Expert Judgement Future management actions
Market Consistent
Best Estimate
Not Undertaking Specific
Actual v Expected analysis
Expert Judgement
Future management actions
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Contract Boundaries
Is new premium considered new business?
If Yes, exclude premiums & associated liabilities
Consider unbundling
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t Premiums Related BEL
1 100 (15)
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
6 0 0
BEL (15)
Contract Boundaries
t Premiums Related BEL
1 100 (15)
2 100 (15)
3 100 (15)
4 100 (15)
5 100 (15)
6 100 (15)
BEL (90)
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Reinsurance Asset
Consistent with BEL
calculation
Difference between Gross
and Net BEL
Allow for expected loss due to default
Separate for LOB and
reinsurers
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Principle of Proportionality
• Nature, Scale, & Complexity of undertaking • Deterministic • Claim counts not amounts • Not splitting premium and claim provisions • Duration or factor-based approaches
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Agenda
1 Solvency II Balance Sheet
2 Valuation of Assets
3 Best Estimate Liability
4 Risk Margin
5 Internal Model v Standard Formula
6 SCR details
7 MCR
8 Own Funds
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Risk Margin
Total assets
Best estimate liabilities
Risk margin
Free capital
Other liabilities
SCR
• Concept: Cost of capital required to support the insurance obligations over their future lifetime
Only capital for unavoidable risks
Transfer to notional “reference undertaking”
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Risk Margin
• Calculation:
– Cost of capital calculation
– CoC rate defined as 6% (in excess of risk free)
SCR(0) SCR(1)
SCR(2) SCR(3)
t = 0 t = 1 t = 2 t = 3
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Risk Margin
t SCR 6% Discounted Sum
1 100 6.0 5.9 42.5
2 95 5.7 5.6
3 90 5.4 5.2
4 85 5.1 4.8
5 80 4.8 4.4
6 75 4.5 4.0
7 70 4.2 3.7
8 65 3.9 3.3
9 60 3.6 3.0
10 55 3.3 2.6
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Agenda
1 Solvency II Balance Sheet
2 Valuation of Assets
3 Best Estimate Liability
4 Risk Margin
5 Internal Model v Standard Formula
6 SCR details
7 MCR
8 Own Funds
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Capital
Balance Sheet
Total assets
Best estimate liabilities
Risk margin
MCR
SCR
Other liabilities
Free capital
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• Three ways to calculate the SCR
– Standard Formula
– Internal Model
– Partial Internal Model
• Every company has a model for calculating the BEL
– “Internal Model” simply means the SCR shocks have been tailored to that company instead of using the standard ones
– All shocks must be calibrated to be equivalent to a 1-in-200 event (99.5% VAR scenario) at a minimum
Standard Formula vs Internal Model
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• Why use an Internal Model?
– Standard formula does not capture the specifics of your business
– Regulatory requirement
– Capital efficiencies
Standard Formula vs Internal Model
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• Allocate capital to each of the risks your Company faces
• Should have enough capital to survive a 1-in-200 year event (i.e. 99.5% VaR)
• The capital requirements for each of these risks are combined using correlation matrices (to capture diversification benefits)
• This gives you the overall Solvency Capital Requirement!
SCR Calculation
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Agenda
1 Solvency II Balance Sheet
2 Valuation of Assets
3 Best Estimate Liability
4 Risk Margin
5 Internal Model v Standard Formula
6 SCR details
7 MCR
8 Own Funds
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SCR – Octopus View
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SCR – Octopus View
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SCR – Standard Formula
SCR
Basic SCR
Life Underwriting
Mortality
Longevity
Disability/
Morbidity
Expense
Revision
Lapse
Catastrophe
Health Underwriting
SLT
Mortality
Longevity
Disability/
Morbidity
Expense
Revision
Lapse
NSLT
Premium & Reserve
Lapse
Catastrophe
Mass Accident
Accident Concentration
Pandemic
Non-Life Underwriting
Premium & Reserve
Lapse
Catastrophe
Counterparty Default Risk
Intangible Assets
Ops Risk SCR Adjustment
Concentration
Currency
Spread
Property
Equity
Interest Rate
Market Risk
Modules
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SCR – Standard Formula
SCR
Basic SCR
Life Underwriting
Mortality
Longevity
Disability/
Morbidity
Expense
Revision
Lapse
Catastrophe
Health Underwriting
SLT
Mortality
Longevity
Disability/
Morbidity
Expense
Revision
Lapse
NSLT
Premium & Reserve
Lapse
Catastrophe
Mass Accident
Accident Concentration
Pandemic
Non-Life Underwriting
Premium & Reserve
Lapse
Catastrophe
Counterparty Default Risk
Intangible Assets
Ops Risk SCR Adjustment
Concentration
Currency
Spread
Property
Equity
Interest Rate
Market Risk
Sub-Modules
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• Building blocks of the SCR Calculation
• For each sub module calculate
a capital amount to cover a
1-in-200 risk event for that risk category
• Types of Calculations
– “Delta NAV”
– Factor based
Sub Module Calculations
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• Delta NAV (or D NAV) is the change in net asset value resulting from a particular shock
• Types of “Delta NAV” shocks
– Asset shock
– Financial Assumption change
– Decrement change
– Expense change
• Many of the SCR components are calculated on this basis
“Delta NAV” Calculations
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• Property Risk Sub-Module
– Recalculate your NAV (i.e. the assets and liabilities) assuming a shock to property prices of 25%
• Expense Risk Sub-Module
– Recalculate your NAV assuming a 10% increase in expenses and a 1% increase in inflation rates
“Delta NAV” Calculation - Example
Scenario Assets Liabilities Net
BEL €100m €100m €0m
Property Risk €75m €100m €-25m
D NAV = €25m
Scenario Assets Liabilities Net
BEL €100m €100m €0m
Expense Risk €100m €112m €-12m
D NAV = €12m
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• Formula provided by EIOPA
• Most are based on premiums/reserves
Factor based calculations
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Factor based calculations - Example
• Premium & Reserves Risk
– Standard Deviation
– Volume measure
– With prescriptive rules on how both of these variables are derived for various lines of business
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“Delta NAV” Sub Modules
SCR
Basic SCR
Life Underwriting
Mortality
Longevity
Disability/
Morbidity
Expense
Revision
Lapse
Catastrophe
Health Underwriting
SLT
Mortality
Longevity
Disability/
Morbidity
Expense
Revision
Lapse
NSLT
Premium & Reserve
Lapse
Catastrophe
Mass Accident
Accident Concentration
Pandemic
Non-Life Underwriting
Premium & Reserve
Lapse
Catastrophe
Counterparty Default Risk
Intangible Assets
Ops Risk SCR Adjustment
Concentration
Currency
Spread
Property
Equity
Interest Rate
Market Risk
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“Factor based” Sub Modules
SCR
Basic SCR
Life Underwriting
Mortality
Longevity
Disability/
Morbidity
Expense
Revision
Lapse
Catastrophe
Health Underwriting
SLT
Mortality
Longevity
Disability/
Morbidity
Expense
Revision
Lapse
NSLT
Premium & Reserve
Lapse
Catastrophe
Mass Accident
Accident Concentration
Pandemic
Non-Life Underwriting
Premium & Reserve
Lapse
Catastrophe
Counterparty Default Risk
Intangible Assets
Ops Risk SCR Adjustment
Concentration
Currency
Spread
Property
Equity
Interest Rate
Market Risk
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Market Risk Module
Risk drivers SCR shock
Interest Rate risk Increase/decrease in interest rates
Equity risk Equity prices fall
(22% to 49% shock +/- adjustment of up to 10%)
Property risk 25% fall in property prices
Spread risk Stress to value based on credit quality
Currency risk 25% movement up/down in exchange rates
Concentration risk Formula based on total exposure and credit quality
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Life Underwriting Risk Module
Risk drivers SCR shock
Mortality risk 15% increase in mortality rates
Longevity risk 20% reduction in mortality rates
Disability risk 35% increase in year 1, 25% increase later years, 20%
decrease in recovery rates
Lapse risk Max (50% increase in rates, 50% decrease in rates,
immediate 40%* mass lapse)
Expense risk 10% increase in expenses and 1% increase to expense
inflation
Revision risk 3% increases in annuity benefits
Catastrophe risk 0.15% increase in mortality rates in year 1 of projection
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Non-Life Underwriting Risk Module
Risk drivers SCR shock
Premium &
Reserve risk
Formula based on volumes and standard deviation.
Inputs by class of business
Lapse risk Discontinuance of 40% of business
Catastrophe risk
Formula based approach from several sub-modules
- Natural catastrophe
- Non-proportional property reinsurance
- Man-made catastrophe
- Other non-life catastrophe
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• Two approaches:
– Health that is like Life business
– Health that is like Non-life business
• Classification is based on the nature of the underlying risks as opposed to the form of contracts
• SCR calculations follow a very similar format to the corresponding Life or Non-Life section
• Diversification benefits if risk is spread across sub-modules
Health Underwriting Module
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Health Underwriting Module
SCR
Basic SCR
Life Underwriting
Mortality
Longevity
Disability/
Morbidity
Expense
Revision
Lapse
Catastrophe
Health Underwriting
SLT
Mortality
Longevity
Disability/
Morbidity
Expense
Revision
Lapse
NSLT
Premium & Reserve
Lapse
Catastrophe
Mass Accident
Accident Concentration
Pandemic
Non-Life Underwriting
Premium & Reserve
Lapse
Catastrophe
Counterparty Default Risk
Intangible Assets
Ops Risk SCR Adjustment
Concentration
Currency
Spread
Property
Equity
Interest Rate
Market Risk
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• Covers the risk of financial loss through a counterparty default
• The capital requirement is calculated from a complicated formula using:
– Probabilities of default
– “Loss Given Default”
– Collateral arrangements/risk mitigation
• Separate formulas for Type 1 and Type 2 exposures
– Formula to combine SCR for classes 1 and 2 into a total SCR for counterparty default
Counterparty Risk Module
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• If intangible assets are recognised on the balance sheet, then there may be risks attached (and therefore capital requirements)
• A simple formula is used:
SCR for intangible assets = 80% of the value of intangible assets
Intangible Assets
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Life Underwriting
Health Underwriting
Non-Life Underwriting
Counterparty Default Risk
Intangible Assets
Market Risk
“BSCR” – Basic Solvency Capital Requirement
Basic SCR
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• Correlation Matrices
• Captures Diversification Benefits
– All submodules shocks occurring at one time would be much less likely than a 1-in-200 year event
– Risks can be positively or negatively correlated
Aggregation
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• Factor-based formula
• For unit-linked business (where the investment risk is borne by the policyholder):
– Ops risk is 25% of the unit-linked expenses
• For everything else:
– calculate an operational risk component based on premiums and one based on reserves, and use the higher,
– with a cap of 30% of the Basic SCR
Operational Risk Module
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• The loss absorbing capacity of technical provisions
– e.g. company changing the bonuses they might pay to with-profit policyholders in shocked scenarios
• The loss-absorbing capacity of deferred tax
– SCR shocks could result in losses (or reduced future profits)
– This could reduce the Deferred Tax liability or increase the Deferred Tax asset, resulting in a negative adjustment to the SCR
Adjustments
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• Sum of:
– Basic SCR
– Operational Risk Sub Module
– Adjustments
• Finished the SCR!
...but what about the MCR?
SCR Calculation
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Agenda
1 Solvency II Balance Sheet
2 Valuation of Assets
3 Best Estimate Liability
4 Risk Margin
5 Internal Model v Standard Formula
6 SCR details
7 MCR
8 Own Funds
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• Factor-based formula - calibrated using a Value-at-Risk measure, with an 85% confidence level, over a one-year period
– Uses premiums, technical provisions, capital at risk as inputs
• The MCR is then adjusted to bring it up to 25% of the SCR, or to bring it down to 45% of the SCR if it falls outside those parameters
• Absolute Minimum level (“AMCR”):
– €3.7m for Life
– €2.5m for Non-Life
– €3.6m for Reinsurers
“MCR” – Minimum Capital Requirement
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MCR is a subset of SCR
Total assets
Best estimate liabilities
Risk margin
MCR
SCR
Other liabilities
Free capital
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Agenda
1 Solvency II Balance Sheet
2 Valuation of Assets
3 Best Estimate Liability
4 Risk Margin
5 Internal Model v Standard Formula
6 SCR details
7 MCR
8 Own Funds
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• Own Funds
= Capital (amount available to meet capital requirements )
Own Funds - definition
Total Own Funds
Total assets
Best estimate liabilities
Risk margin
Free capital
Other liabilities
SCR
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• Own Funds include: Basic Own Funds + Ancillary Own Funds
• Basic Own Funds
= Excess of Assets over Liabilities + subordinated liabilities
• Ancillary Own Funds
= Contingent Capital (unpaid share capital, letters of credit, guarantee etc.)
• Use of Ancillary Own Funds requires prior supervisory approval
Basic & Ancillary Own Funds
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• Own Funds are classified into 3 Tiers
– Availability to absorb losses • Liquidity
• Permanent
– Subordination • Claim on assets in wind-up situation
• Examples
– Tier 1: Ordinary Share Capital, Debt
– Tier 2: Preference Shares
– Tier 3: Anything that doesn’t meet tier 2 or 3 requirements
Own Funds - Tiers
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• Tiering of eligible items:
• Limits/restrictions:
Own Funds
Condition 1 Condition 2 Condition 3
Solvency Test T1 + T2 + T3 ≥ SCR N/A N/A
For SCR Tier 1 ≥ 50% of SCR Tier 3 < 15% of SCR Tier 2 + Tier 3 ≤ 50% of SCR
For MCR Tier 1 ≥ 80% of MCR Tier 2 < 20% of MCR No Tier 3 allowed
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Capital
Balance Sheet
Total assets
Best estimate liabilities
Risk margin
MCR
SCR
Other liabilities
Free capital
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• Level 1: Directive
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:02009L0138-20140523&from=EN
• Level 2: Delegated Acts
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=OJ:L:2015:012:FULL&from=EN
• Level 3: Guidelines
https://eiopa.europa.eu/publications/eiopa-guidelines
Useful Links
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Questions