solar variability and climate changesolar.physics.montana.edu/svecse2008/pdf/cubasch_svecse.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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Solar variability and ClimateChange
Ulrich Cubasch
Freie Universität, Berlin
Joint work with Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, Tom Crowley, Gabi Hegerl, Stefanie Legutke, Jürg Luterbacher, Ulrich Schlese, Hans von Storch, Reinhard Voss, Eduardo Zorita U. Langematz, K.Matthes, S. Schimanke, P. Sinigoj,
T. Spangehl, S. Wagner
Joint work with Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, Tom Crowley, Gabi Hegerl, Stefanie Legutke, Jürg Luterbacher, Ulrich Schlese, Hans von Storch, Reinhard Voss, Eduardo Zorita U. Langematz, K.Matthes, S. Schimanke, P. Sinigoj,
T. Spangehl, S. Wagner
Sponsored by SPP CAWSES, DFG Germany
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outline
• Introduction• Orbital influences• Direct influences• Indirect influences• Summary
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Introduction
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7The climate system
External ForcingAnthropogenic Forcing
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Change of solar inputby orbital parameters
obliquity�tilt of the earth axis
excentricityprecession
~100 ky
~ 23 und 19ky
~41 ky
precessionexcentricity
excentricity
precession
obliquity
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Sun
UV
Earth
Ozone T, U
Indirect Influence
Dynamical impact
trop.
Strat.
Visible
Earth
Direct Influence
Radiativeimpact
trop.
Strat.
Sun
?
Possible Ways for Solar Influence on Climate
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The influence ofcosmic rays onclouds
Possible Ways for Solar Influence on Climate
Not yet quantified and not yet modelled!
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11A climate model
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The land-sea mask of a typical climatemodel used in long simulations
(ca. 3.75 x 3.75 deg)
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Orbital forcing
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Simulations of 125 ky BP and 115 ky BP (Eem and its end)
known: orbital parameterknown: greenhouse gas
concentration
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15125 ka bp
115 ka bp
You are here
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Periodicity of the orbital parameter115 ky bp
125 ky bp
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125 ky BP 115 ky BP
The radiation anomaly compared to present day
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125 ka bp 115 ka bp
The near-surface temperature
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January temperatures of the early Eemian(Corylus-phase)
(difference to observed present-day values)
N. Kühl
modelled reconstructed
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Transition to the cold phase
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Permanently snow-covered areas in thesimulation for 115 kyr BP
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Sea level changes
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Years
Sea
leve
l cha
nge
[m]
Snow accumulation over North America
Oceanic density changes
Oceanic density changes with removedtrend of preindustrial simulation
snow accum.
thermal expansion
total
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Simulations for the Holoceneclimate optimum
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7 ka BP-present 6 ka BP-present 5 ka BP-present
Forcings
Orbital Forcing (Berger, 1978)
S. Wagner
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Solar forcing: based on 14C production rate (Solanki et al., 2004)Scaling corresponds to 0.30% insolation difference present day- Maunder Minimum S. Wagner
Selected time interval
today
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ForcingsGreenhouse gas forcings: Antarctic ice cores (Flueckiger et al., 2002)
CO2
CH4
N2O
S. Wagner
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DJF
Time series filtered with 50 year Hamming low pass filter
JJA
„Europe“:0 - 30°E45°N - 70°N
S. Wagner
only orbital
only orbital
orbital, GG, TSI
orbital, GG, TSI
European temperatures
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Direct influence
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How was the climate variabilitybefore industrialization?
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+
=
Volcanisms
solar radiation
Forcing
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solar variability
• 11-year cycle (Schwalbe-cycle): ca. 0.1 % ~ 0.24 W/m2 at the surface• 80-year cycle (Gleissberg-cycle): ca.
0.24 - 0.3 % 0.5-0.75 W/m2 at thesurface
• many more.....?
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Simulations of the climateof the last century
Volcanism
Solar variability
Greenhouse Gases
Temperaturelittleice age
medivalwarm period
IPCC, 2007
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Simulated near surface-temperature anomaly1675-1710
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1675-1710vs. 1550-1800
Reconstruction from historicalevidence , from Luterbacher et al.
Model-Simulation
Late Maunder Minimum
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What part of the climatevariability is anthropogenic, what
part natural?
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The observed near-surface temperature change,averaged over the northern hemisphere
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The observed and modelled (solar only) near-surface tem perature change,averaged over the northern hemisphere
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The observed and modelled (solar only, volcanoes only) near-surface temperature change, averaged over the north ern hemisphere
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The observed and the modelled (solar, volcanic, solar&v olcanic) near-surfacetemperature change, averaged over the northern hemispher e
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The observed and the modelled (greenhouse gases) near-su rfacetemperature change, averaged over the northern hemispher e
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The observed and the modelled (greenhouse gases&solar) n ear-surfacetemperature change, averaged over the northern hemispher e
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The observed and the modelled (greenhouse gases&volcanoe s)near-surface temperature change, averaged over the north ern hemisphere
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The observed and the modelled (greenhouse gases in connec tion withsolar, volcanic, solar&volcanic) near-surface
temperature change, averaged over the northern hemispher e
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The observed and the modelled (greenhouse gases, dto. in connection withsolar, volcanic, solar&volcanic) near-surfacetemperature change , averaged over the northern hemispher e
observations
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The AR4 modelling results
natural and anthropogenic forcing
natural forcing
observations
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Can we see the 11-year solar cycle in the troposphere/ocean?
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NCEP-reanalysis
GPRC Xie & Arkin
The precipitation anomalyin the tropical Pacificduring solar maximum
van Loon et al, 2006
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scheme for solar max•solar forcing is spatial heterogeneous, strongest in the cloudless subtropics• increased solar radiation enhances the evaporation in the subtropics• intensified moisture transport reinforces the main precipition regimes• increased subsidence decreases cloud cover in the subtropics• stronger trade winds enforce upwelling and trigger a La Nina like situation
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Meehl et al. (in press)
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The precipitationanomaly duringsolar maximum
observed
van Loon et al, 2006
When I know the state of the solar cycle, I canpredict ENSO and with it the rain in California for
the next 10 years!? …..butENSO has no 11-year cycle!
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The idealized forcing and the response of the near surface temperature
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Precipitation patternObserved: J/F mean max year anomaly (van Loon et al. 2006)Modelled: January/February max-
min composite of 60 years
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• precipitation declines along the equator with pos. changes northward and southward during solar maximum
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• The 11-yr signal in Sun’s irradiance appears to excite a damped resonant response (i.e. the QDO) in the Earth’s climate system. (White + Liu, 2008) with a lag of 3-5 years.
• The direct forcing appears to be insufficient to explain the size of the response (Meehl et al, in press), therefore both, the direct and the indirect response have to work together.
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Indirect influence
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Solar effect in the stratosphere
• Solar heating modulates temperature gradients in the upper stratosphere/ lower mesosphere• reinforcement of zonal winds deflects planetary waves, which creates positive divergence of Eliassen-Palm-flux• this results a weakening of the Brewer-Dobson-circulation aligned with positive temperature anomalies in the lower tropical stratosphere
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Kodera and Kuroda 2002
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Forcing of 110 year runComposite (1953 to 2004) + repeat (1962-2004)
1953 20041962
f10.7 flux
U (m/s) @50 hPa
from observations
(NOAA/SEL f10.7 dataset)
from observations
(M. Giorgetta’s extended QBO dataset)
repeat
repeat
repeat
repeat
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Solar Signal in Ozone (%/100 f10.7)WACCM vs. Observations
modelled observed
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Solar Signal in Temperature (K/100 f10.7)modelled observed
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Summary• The sun influences the climate on various time-scales
by orbital variations, TSI and UV-shift• However, its influence is not sufficient to explain the
recent warming.• The 11-year solar signal in the upper stratosphere
leads to circulation changes in the lower stratosphereand down to the troposphere at polar and equatoriallatitudes.
• There are indications that it has some influence in thePacific region, which might give some potential fordecadal weather prediction.
• The interplay between direct and indirect effect is notclear.
• The interstellar partical flux and its influence on climate are not yet quantified and can therefore notbe modellled.