solar future 2012 the success of pv market development in the uk
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Colin McNaught, AEA Knowlege Leader and author of the AEA Microgeneration Index (http://www.aeat.com/microgenerationindex/) reviews the success of PV market development in the UK at The Solar Future UK Conference 2012.TRANSCRIPT
Solar FutureThe success of PV market development in the UK
Colin McNaught
26th June 2012
Major provider of environment and energy consultancy
and advice to the private sector
Advised DECC on Renewables roadmap, RHI, FIT,
CRC
Auditor for the RHI schemeCHP Quality AssuranceUK emissions inventory
BPVA MCS Installer survey
WRAP PV Industry report
AEA
• Looking back – trends & patterns
• Looking forward – who & where is the growth?
Agenda
A brief history…
DTI Domestic Field Trial2002 installs:• 262 kWp• 12 sites• Avg £7,200 per kWp
Low Carbon BuildingsLCBP Solar PV:• 11,490 kWp• 5,586 sites• Avg £5,924 per kWp• £45.5 million grant
Clear Skies“The gap led to "a famine". "a lot of damage to a rapidly-growing industry"
Source: IEA & DECC
The Impact of the FIT
Capacity 1,250 MW 282,000 Installations
Registered schemes – Ofgem 22 June 2012
• Domestic sector = 75% of capacity 97% of installs
The Impact of the FIT on Solar PV
Registered schemes – Ofgem 22 June 2012
Surges in Solar PV
• Peak of 29 MW in one week, circa £75 million invested
• 2010/11 around £640 million invested
• Surge around 6 weeks before deadlineDECC 22 June 2012 up to 50 kWp
Certain reduction 43p to 21p/kWh
Possible reduction 43p to 21p/kWh
Energy Efficiency requirements
Falling module prices
Source IMS
• Centre for Economics and Business Research: “The primary danger is that once deflationary expectations are entrenched, consumers will delay spending and businesses will delay investing as this can be done more cheaply in the future. As a result, deflation can contribute to downward economic spirals and turn a recession in to a deep and lasting depression.”
• Tariff cuts may over-ride the impact of deflation
• Difficult questions:
Are tariff cuts needed to motivate buyers?
What happens as the cuts become smaller?
The danger of deflation
Location, Location – Solar PV by Postcode
Focus on London
Focus on Sheffield
Ofgem Jan 2012 Domestic only
Which districts have the best market?
Scale of Domestic Market
Less:- Listed buildings- Shaded roofs- Unsuitable roof
structures
26 Million Homes
26 Million Homes
96% are not flats
67% Owner occupied
50% EPC D or better
50% Southwards facing
Target Market 4.1 million
homes
• Around 300,000 installs
• Around 2/3 on single properties (not rent a roof/social housing)
• So 200,000 owner occupiers
• Or 5% of estimated 4.1 million market
• How do future buyers compare with past buyers?
Scale of Domestic Market
InnovatorsEarly
Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards0.10 million
0.3 GW0.55 million
1.7 GW1.40 million
4.2 GW1.40 million
4.2 GW0.66 million
2.0 GW
Profiling the market
4.1 million homes
• Innovators – venturesome, educated, multiple info sources;
• Early adopters – social leaders, popular, educated;
• Early majority – deliberate, many informal social contacts;— More risk averse = De-risk the process and the returns
— Need confidence = They seek the market leader
— Less affluent = Price Matters + Finance Matters
• More Ford Focus than Morgan kit car?
• Need to re-build awareness post the big cuts
The next generation of customers
• Increasing the value of export
• Impact of energy price rises
Moving beyond the FIT
• A £6,000 investment in Solar PV vs. Cash ISAs
• 12 million Cash ISAs in 2010/11 = £38 billion
A competitive investment
• Needed to re-engage and update customers– On cost, on investment returns, on quality
– Public Sector: EST, Green Deal, DECC…
– Private Sector: Which?, money journalists, banks…
• But need Clarity and Consistency of messages
Allies and Partners
EST: Main Solar PV web page
An average system is 3 kWp and will cost around £10,000 (including VAT at 5%). Most domestic PV systems cost around £3,000 to £3,500 per kWp installed, though small systems cost proportionately more. Costs vary between installers, so it is important to get several quotes.
EST: Home Energy Generation SelectorPotential costs & savings for Solar Electricity
Panel
Typical capital cost before grants,
depending on size and type of system
installed.
£8,000 - £16,000
Financial saving (£/year)
£190
Estimated payback 14 years
Estimated CO2 saving (kgCO2/year)
920kg CO2
New Strategies
• The FIT and the surge have opened the market
• The Challenge is to sustain growth:– New market segments
– The financial case is still excellent
– Less reliance on FIT = less policy risk
– But less push from the tariff cuts
– Smarter installations to maximise the other income
– Focus on cities
Solar FutureThe success of PV market development in the UK
Colin McNaught
26th June 2012