solar flares cme's & emps

7/30/2019 Solar Flares CME's & EMPs

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Solar Flares AND SUN SPOTS (Big Problem for the next two years)

Astronomers have determined that the sun experiences regular cycles of intense magnetic storms known as sunspots or

solar flares, caused by coronal magnetic eruptions (CME), averaging in duration about 11 years each. According to NASA,

the end of the last sun storm cycle ended on March 10, 2006 when all solar flares on the sun became quiet - signaling an

end to the most recent sunspot cycle. This also marks the beginning of the next cycle which, according to the National

Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder Colorado, will be about 30 to 50 percent stronger than the previous one.

They predict the most intense date for the solar flares to be late in 2012, coinciding with the Mayan calculations for the

sun's galactic alignment. Because this phenomenon has never occurred with the population and technology we have

today, no one knows for certain what effects these solar storms may have on our future. What we do know for certain islarge influxes of energy from the sun drive extreme weather patterns causing hurricanes, tornadoes and blizzards. This

influx of energy is what creates La Nina, El Nino and the incredible display of the Northern Lights.

Based on future scanning theoretical and anticipatory analysis threat analysts have devised several worse-case

scenarios: A 50 percent stronger solar cycle could be catastrophic and result in huge, Katrina-size storms one after

another. The results would be complete power outages, bridges and roads destroyed, oil refineries destroyed,

communities devastated, infrastructures ruined, lives lost and the possible collapse of our economy.

ELECTROMAGNETIC OR GEOMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP)

An Electromagnetic Pulse can be generated by either a nuclear EMP attack or by solar storms called a Geomagnetic

EMP. A severe solar storm can produce geomagnetic storms when combined with Coronal Mass Ejections (CME). CMEs

produce huge clouds of plasma that generate strong magnetic fields. In 1972, a 230,000 volt transformer in Canadaexploded when rapidly shifting magnetic fields caused by solar weather induced excessive current in the grid. On March

13, 1989, millions of homes and businesses were plunged into darkness when a solar storm caused a blackout in

Quebec.

But perhaps the largest known CME occurred just before noon on September 1, 1859, and lasted 8 days. The Carrington

Event, named after the astronomer Richard Carrington who observed the solar activity as it occurred, caused significant

disruption on Earth. According to scientists at the European Space Agency "The entire Earth was engulfed in a gigantic

cloud of seething gas, and a blood red aurora erupted across the planet from the poles to the tropics. Around the world,

telegraph systems crashed, machines burst into flames and electric shocks rendered operators unconscious. Compasses

and other sensitive instruments reeled as if struck by a massive electric fist." For the first time in recorded history,

people throughout the Caribbean were treated to spectacular displays of the Aurora Borealis. Of course, 1859

technology was quite low in comparison to today's technology; the telegraph had only been invented 15 years prior.

The earth is protected from the harmful effects of solar radiation by its magnetic field, called the magnetosphere.

Cracks in the field were discovered in 2003 by both NASA and the European Space Agency and the cracks have since

damaged satellites during transit through it.

If a CME event of the size and intensity that occurred ion 1859 happened today, it is estimated that the power grid will

take between 2 and 10 years to be restored and the following effects will occur:

Municipal water will run out in 48 hours

Sewage systems will stop operating within 2 weeks

Refrigeration will immediately cease

Hospitals and nursing homes will experience a drastic increase in deaths due to shortages in medicineFood will run out at the grocery stores with 3 days

97% of all manufacturing will cease

Crop cultivation will decrease by 80%

Food riots and civil unrest will occur within 7 days


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New Solar Cycle Prediction

May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for

the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot

number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16

peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space

Weather Prediction Center.

Right: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.

It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could

give the wrong impression.

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space

weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859,

for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size were predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating

solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that

people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found

that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and

require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion indamage.

Above: This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle in blue and the predicted peak of

the next solar cycle in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. [more]

The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar

minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in

2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.

"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center,

NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

Researchers have known about the solar cycle since the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller

coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. At first glance, it looks like a regular pattern, but

predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome. Cycles vary in length from about 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.htmlhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.htmlhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.htmlhttp://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2008/12/15/15dec_solarflaresurprise_resources/296969main_flare_sxilabeled_HI.jpghttp://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2008/12/15/15dec_solarflaresurprise_resources/296969main_flare_sxilabeled_HI.jpghttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html


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high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch out much

longer. In the 17th century the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that

still baffles scientists.

Above: Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2008. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be

similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked by a red arrow. Credit: NASA/MSFC

Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records

for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a

significant solar flare.

"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond

the date we predicted in 2007."

In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are

popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the suns surface ("zonal flows") are gaining

strength and slowly drifting toward the suns equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in

solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's

new, almost unanimous forecast.

According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view,

that's good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity

has a profound effect on Earths atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit

because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles.Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are

other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.

Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and

more revisions to the forecast.

"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."

Report: Chance of a Catastrophic Solar Storm Is 1 in 8; Would Take

Down Power Grid, Food Transportation, Water Utilities, FinancialSystems

SPACE WEATHER: THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS, VOL. 10,

S02012, 12 PP., 2012

doi:10.1029/2011SW000734

On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events
http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2009/05/29/29may_noaaprediction_resources/maunderminimum.jpg


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Key Points

Probability of a Carrington event occurring over next decade is ~12% Space physics datasets often display a power-law distribution Power-law distribution can be exploited to predict extreme events

Pete Riley

Predictive Science, San Diego, California, USA

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to

study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtuallyimpossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this

study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass

ejection speeds, Dst, and >30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability

of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of theseverity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the

probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For

example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst< 850 nT) occurring within the next

decade is 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assumetime stationary, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this techniquecannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

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