solar energy cash flow canadian solar share xls stripped 01

43
Solar Energy Cash Flow Calculator b Enter data in these cells. SolarShare Toronto Project Description Location Toronto Rated Power DC (kW) 200 Type (Residential or Com Commercial Solar Resource Yield (kWh/kW/yr) 1,200 Annual Decrease in Yield -0.8% Availability 100% Array Efficiency 100% Cost Specific Cost ($/kW) $8,000 Installed Cost ### Total Installed Cost ### Financing Terms Equity to Debt 20% Return on Equity 13.0% Term of Debt 10 Interest on Debt 7.0% Discount Rate (nominal) 8.2% Inflation Rate (General) 2.5% Inflation Rate (Energy) 3.0% Equity $320,000 Debt ### Federal Tax Position Use Federal Subsidy (yes yes Type of Subsidy payment/kWh Tax Credit Buy-Down Payment 0 Year 1 Payment/kWh 0 Federal Tax Rate 25% Federal Sales Tax 6% Provincial Tax Position Use Provincial Subsidy (yes or no)

Upload: bhaskar-vijay-singh

Post on 23-Nov-2014

100 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Solar Energy Cash Flow Calculator by Paul GipeEnter data in these cells.

SolarShare TorontoProject DescriptionLocation TorontoRated Power DC (kW) 200Type (Residential or CommercCommercial

Solar ResourceYield (kWh/kW/yr) 1,200Annual Decrease in Yield -0.8%Availability 100%Array Efficiency 100%

CostSpecific Cost ($/kW) $8,000 Installed Cost $1,600,000 Total Installed Cost $1,600,000

Financing TermsEquity to Debt 20%Return on Equity 13.0%Term of Debt 10Interest on Debt 7.0%Discount Rate (nominal) 8.2%Inflation Rate (General) 2.5%Inflation Rate (Energy) 3.0%Equity $320,000 Debt $1,280,000

Federal Tax PositionUse Federal Subsidy (yes or yesType of Subsidy payment/kWhTax CreditBuy-Down Payment 0Year 1 Payment/kWh 0Federal Tax Rate 25%Federal Sales Tax 6%

Provincial Tax PositionUse Provincial Subsidy (yes or no)Type of SubsidyProvincial Tax CreditBuy-Down Payment 0Year 1 Payment/kWh 0

Page 2: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Provincial Tax Rate 11%Provincial Sales Tax 11%

Annual Reoccurring ExpensesTotal Expense 1.2%Applies to % of Installed Cost 100%

Power Purchase Agreement or ContractTariff T1 ($/kWh) $0.420 Term T1 (yr) 20Tariff T2 ($/kWh) $0.000 Term T2 (yr) 0Portion of T1 Adjusted for Infl 0%Portion of T2 Adjusted for Infl 0%

Avoided Cost of Energy ($/ $0.10

Page 3: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Solar Energy Cash Flow Calculator by Paul Gipe

ResultsDetermines yield. IRR-20 yr 1.8%Note that some projects are rated in kW AC. IRR-30 yr 8.8%Determines tax treatment. ROE-20 yr 2%

ROE-30 yr 18%NPV-20 yr ($185,466)

See tab: Yield Examples NPV-30 yr $37,843 Allowance for cell degradation over time. PI-20 yr -0.58Allowance for downtime to perform maintenance. PI-30 yr 0.12Any other losses not included in Yield estimate.

Desired. Used in WACC.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital. Used in NPV.

Use of subsidy optional.Type "payment/kWh", "tax credit", or "buy-down".There may be no tax credit available.There may be no payment available.There may be no payment available.

Use of subsidy optional.Type "payment/kWh", "tax credit", or "buy-down".There may be no tax credit available.There may be no payment available.There may be no payment available.

Page 4: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

See tab: Annual Cost Examples

Current retail price of electricity.

Page 5: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

AnnualizedAnnualizedUsing WACC

Using WACC

NPV/Equity InvestmentNPV/Equity Investment

Page 6: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Results

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

($1,000,000)

($500,000)

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

SolarShare Project

Year

Cu

mu

lativ

e C

ash

Flo

w

Page 7: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

($1,000,000)

($500,000)

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

SolarShare Project

Year

Cu

mu

lativ

e C

ash

Flo

w

Page 8: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Cash FlowYear 0 1 2

Income

Revenue from Generation $0 $103,200 $102,374 Provincial Sales Tax Rebate $177,600

Expenses

Equity Investment $320,000 Federal Sales Tax $96,000 Provincial Sales Tax $177,600 Annual Reoccurring Costs $0 $19,200 $19,680 Debt Repayment $0 $182,243 $182,243

Before Tax

Profit (Loss) ($593,600) $79,357 ($99,549)Cumulative Profit (Loss) ($593,600) ### ($613,792)

After Tax

After Tax Value of Depreciation $144,400 $216,600 $108,300 After Tax Value of Interest Expense $0 $32,346 $30,005 After Tax Value of Annual Reoccurring Cost $0 $6,931 $7,104

Profit (Loss) ($449,200) $335,234 $45,860 Cumulative Profit (Loss) ($449,200) ### ($68,106)

IRR-20 yr 1.8%IRR-30 yr 8.8%

ROE-20 yr 2% AnnualizedROE-30 yr 18% AnnualizedNPV-20 yr ($185,466) Using WACC

NPV-30 yr $37,843 Using WACC

PI-20 yr -0.58 NPV/Equity InvestmentPI-30 yr 0.12 NPV/Equity Investment

Page 9: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

$101,555 $100,743 $99,937 $99,138 $98,344 $97,558 $96,777

$20,172 $20,676 $21,193 $21,723 $22,266 $22,823 $23,393 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243

($100,860) ($102,177) ($103,499) ($104,829) ($106,165) ($107,508) ($108,859)($714,652) ($816,828) ($920,328) ### ### ### ###

$54,150 $27,075 $13,538 $6,769 $3,384 $1,692 $846 $27,500 $24,819 $21,951 $18,883 $15,599 $12,086 $8,326

$7,282 $7,464 $7,651 $7,842 $8,038 $8,239 $8,445

($11,928) ($42,818) ($60,360) ($71,335) ($79,143) ($85,491) ($91,242)($80,034) ($122,853) ($183,212) ($254,548) ($333,691) ($419,183) ($510,424)

NPV/Equity InvestmentNPV/Equity Investment

Page 10: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

$96,003 $93,020 $92,276 $91,538 $90,806 $90,079 $89,358

$23,978 $24,578 $25,192 $25,822 $26,467 $27,129 $27,807 $182,243 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

($110,218) $68,443 $67,084 $65,716 $64,338 $62,950 $61,551 ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

$423 $212 $106 $53 $26 $13 $7 $4,304 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $8,656 $8,873 $9,094 $9,322 $9,555 $9,794 $10,038

($96,835) $77,527 $76,284 $75,091 $73,919 $72,757 $71,596 ($607,260) ($529,733) ($453,449) ($378,358) ($304,439) ($231,682) ($160,086)

Page 11: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

$88,644 $87,934 $87,231 $86,533 $36,914 $37,717 $38,538

$28,503 $29,215 $29,945 $30,694 $31,461 $32,248 $33,054 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

$60,141 $58,719 $57,286 $55,839 $5,452 $5,469 $5,484 ### ### ### ### ($830,388) ($824,919) ($819,436)

$0

$3 $2 $1 $0 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

$10,289 $10,547 $10,810 $11,081 $11,358 $11,642 $11,933

$70,434 $69,268 $68,097 $66,920 $161,210 $161,511 $161,816 ($89,652) ($20,385) $47,712 ### $275,842 $437,353 $599,169

Page 12: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

$39,376 $40,233 $41,109 $42,003 $42,917 $43,851 $44,805

$33,881 $34,728 $35,596 $36,486 $37,398 $38,333 $39,291 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

$5,496 $5,506 $5,513 $5,518 $5,519 $5,518 $5,514 ($813,940) ($808,434) ($802,921) ($797,403) ($791,884) ($786,366) ($780,851)

$144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

$12,231 $12,537 $12,850 $13,171 $13,501 $13,838 $14,184

$162,127 $162,442 $162,763 $163,089 $163,420 $163,756 $164,098 $761,296 $923,738 ### ### ### ### ###

Page 13: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

31 32 33 34 35

$45,780 $46,776 $47,794 $48,834 $49,897

$40,273 $41,280 $42,312 $43,370 $44,454 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

$5,507 $5,496 $5,482 $5,464 $5,443 ($775,344) ($769,848) ($764,366) ($758,902) ($753,459)

$144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

$14,539 $14,902 $15,275 $15,657 $16,048

$164,446 $164,798 $165,157 $165,521 $165,891 ### ### ### ### ###

Page 14: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Annual Reoccurring Expenses

Total Expense 1.2%Inflation Rate (General) 2.5%Installed Cost ###Applies to % of Installed Cos 100%

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5

$0 ### ### ### ### ###

Page 15: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 16: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 17: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 18: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Commercial Deductions

Installed Cost ###Class 43.2 Depreciation 50%First Year Rule 50%Federal Tax Rate 25%Provincial Tax Rate 11%Total Corporate Tax Rate 36.1%

CCA Capital Cost Allowance Canada Year 0 1 2 3

Opening Balance ### 1,200,000 600,000 300,000Depreciation 400,000 600,000 300,000 150,000

Maximum Depreciation 400,000 600,000 300,000 150,000Closing Balance ### 600,000 300,000 150,000

After Tax Value of Depreciation 144,400 216,600 108,300 54,150After Tax Value of Interest Expense 0 32,346 30,005 27,500After Tax Value of Annual Reoccurring Costs 0 6,931 7,104 7,282

Earnings Before Tax, Depreciation, & Amortization

Page 19: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

150,000 75,000 37,500 18,750 9,375 4,688 2,344 1,172 58675,000 37,500 18,750 9,375 4,688 2,344 1,172 586 293

75,000 37,500 18,750 9,375 4,688 2,344 1,172 586 29375,000 37,500 18,750 9,375 4,688 2,344 1,172 586 293

27,075 13,538 6,769 3,384 1,692 846 423 212 10624,819 21,951 18,883 15,599 12,086 8,326 4,304 0 0

7,464 7,651 7,842 8,038 8,239 8,445 8,656 8,873 9,094

Page 20: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

293 146 73 37 18 9 5 2 1146 73 37 18 9 5 2 1 1

146 73 37 18 9 5 2 1 1146 73 37 18 9 5 2 1 1

53 26 13 7 3 2 1 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9,322 9,555 9,794 10,038 10,289 10,547 10,810 11,081 ###

Page 21: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 22: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

34 35

0 00 0

0 00 0

0 00 0

### ###

Page 23: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Annual Generation Revenue

Solar ResourceRated Power DC (kW) 200Yield (kWh/kW/yr) 1,200Annual Decrease in Yield -0.8%Availability 100%Array Efficiency 100%

Energy Generation Year 0 1 2 3 4Gross kWh/yr 0 240,000 238,080 236,175 234,286Net kWh/yr 0 240,000 238,080 236,175 234,286

Revenue

Gross Revenue $0 ### ### $99,194 ###Federal Production Payment $0 $2,400 $2,381 $2,362 $2,343 Federal Buy-Down Payment $0

Provincial Production Payment $0 State or Provincial Buy-Down Payment $0

Total $0 ### ### ### ###

Page 24: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14232,412 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###232,412 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

$97,613 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###$2,324 $2,306 $2,287 $2,269 $2,251 $2,233 $0 $0 $0 $0

$99,937 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 25: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 26: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 27: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

35######

###$0

###

Page 28: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Inflation of Electricity Price

Price in Year 0 $0.10 Inflation Rate (Energy) 3%

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5

$/kWh ### ### ### ### ### ###

Inflation of Tariff PaymentTariff T1 ($/kWh) $0.42 Term T1 (yr) 20Tariff T2 ($/kWh) $0.00 Term T2 (yr) 0Portion of T1 Adjusted for Inf 0%Portion of T2 Adjusted for Inf 0%

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5

$/kWh ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 29: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 30: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 31: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Page 32: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Federal Tax Credits, Buy-Downs, or Production Payments

Federal Tax CreditType Tax Credit Cap

$

Commercial 30% 1.0E+9Residential 30% $2,000

Federal Buy-Down (Subsidy) PaymentType Payment Cap

$/kW kW

Commercial $0 1.0E+9Residential $0 100

Federal Production PaymentType Payment

Years $/kWhTerm 10

Commercial $0.01 Residential $0.01

Page 33: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

State or Provincial Tax Credits, Buy-Downs, or Production Payments

State or Provincial Tax CreditType Tax Credit Cap

kW

Commercial 30% 1.0E+9Residential 30% $2,000

State or Provincial Buy-Down (Subsidy) PaymentType Payment Cap

$/kW kW

Commercial $0 100Residential $0 100

State or Provincial Production PaymentType Payment

Years $/kWhTerm 10

Commercial $0.00 Residential $0.00

Page 34: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Debt Repayment

Debt ###Term 10

Interest on Debt 7.0%

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5

Beginning Balance $0 ### ### ### ### ###Principal Payment $0 ($92,643) ($99,128) ### ### ###Closing Balance $0 ### ### $982,161 ### ###

Payment $0 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243 ### ###Interest Payment $0 $89,600 $83,115 $76,176 $68,751 $60,807

Page 35: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

### ### ### ### #################################### ### ### ### #################################### ### ### ### $0 ##############################

### ### ### ### #################################$52,306 $43,211 $33,478 $23,065 $11,922 ##############################

Page 36: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Page 37: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Total

33 34 35

$0 $0 $0 ###$0 $0 $0 ###$0 $0 $0 ###

$0 $0 $0 ###$0 $0 $0 $542,432

Page 38: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Solar Radiation & Yields on Tilted Surface

mono-Si poly-Si SourcekWh/m2/ykWh/kW/ykWh/kW/y

GermanyHamburg 1,110 938 RetScreenKassel 1,100 932 RetScreenNuernburg 1,180 994 RetScreenStuttgart 1,300 1,089 RetScreen

CanadaToronto, ON 1,450 1,217 1,089 RetScreenToronto, ON/Sanyo 1,180 RetScreenToronto, ON 1,486 1,083 NRELWiarton, ON 1,590 1,345 RetScreenOttawa, ON 1,490 1,262 RetScreenOttawa, ON 1,580 1,166 NREL

FranceNice, France 1,790 1,457 RetScreen

ItalyRome 1,400 RetScreen

SpainMadrid 1,442 RetScreen

USABakersfield, 1,965 1,637 RetScreenBakersfield, 2,124 1,461 NRELSacramento, 1,920 1,599 RetScreenAverage, CA 1,500 RetScreenSalem, OR 1,500 1,253 RetScreenBend, OR 1,590 1,328 RetScreenAverage, OR 1,168 RetScreenAlbany, NY 1,540 1,318 RetScreenNew York, NY 1,353 RetScreenNew York, NY 1,218 NRELMadison, WI 1,375 RetScreenMilwaulkee, 1,500 1,350 RetScreenMilwaulkee, 1,653 1,227 NRELEau Claire, WI 1,367 RetScreenMinneapolis, 1,730 1,286 NREL

Page 39: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Source: RETScreen® Solar Resource and System Load Calculation - Photovoltaic Project

http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/codes_algs/PVWATTS/

Average generation from solar in California in 2005 ~1,500 kWh/kW is ~203 GWh. CEC-300-2006-009-F.

Page 40: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Average generation from solar in California is 1,150 kWh/kW, Measured Performance of California Buydown Program, Residential PV Systems, Regional Economic Research.

Average generation for Oregon ~1,168 kWh/kW. ODOE, Christopher Dymond.

Page 41: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Annual Reoccurring (Running) Costs

Fesa B31 Reoccurring ExpensesYear 2

Installed Cost ###Reoccurring Expenses % of Installed Cost

Deductible start-up costs

Management 6,691 0.3%Tax advice 1,500 0.1%Land lease 500 0.0%System monitoring 2,979 0.2%Maintenance and repair 1,020 0.1%Provision for removal 1,065 0.1%Insurance 5,477 0.3%Subtotal of expenses 19,232 1.0%

Regionsonne Breisgau Buergerbeteiligung

Year 1Installed Cost ###Reoccurring Expenses % of Installed Cost

Deductible start-up costs 0.0%Management 12,915 0.5%Tax advice 0.0%Land lease 0.0%System monitoring 0.0%Maintenance and repair 9,228 0.4%Provision for removal 1,820 0.1%Insurance 7,175 0.3%Subtotal of expenses 31,138 1.2%

Stuttgart School Roof Top Buergerbeteiligung

Year 1Installed Cost ###Reoccurring Expenses % of Installed Cost

Deductible start-up c 0 0.0%Management 6,163 0.2%Tax advice 1,530 0.1%Land lease 0 0.0%Roof reconstruction 0 0.0%System monitoring 0.0%Maintenance and repa 5,507 0.2%Provision for removal 720 0.0%Insurance 3,231 0.1%Partner commission 1,250 0.0%

Page 42: Solar Energy Cash Flow Canadian Solar Share XLS Stripped 01

Subtotal of expenses 18,401 0.7%

Average

Total Installed Cost ###Total Expenses 68,771 1.2%