solar energy cash flow canadian solar share xls stripped 01
TRANSCRIPT
Solar Energy Cash Flow Calculator by Paul GipeEnter data in these cells.
SolarShare TorontoProject DescriptionLocation TorontoRated Power DC (kW) 200Type (Residential or CommercCommercial
Solar ResourceYield (kWh/kW/yr) 1,200Annual Decrease in Yield -0.8%Availability 100%Array Efficiency 100%
CostSpecific Cost ($/kW) $8,000 Installed Cost $1,600,000 Total Installed Cost $1,600,000
Financing TermsEquity to Debt 20%Return on Equity 13.0%Term of Debt 10Interest on Debt 7.0%Discount Rate (nominal) 8.2%Inflation Rate (General) 2.5%Inflation Rate (Energy) 3.0%Equity $320,000 Debt $1,280,000
Federal Tax PositionUse Federal Subsidy (yes or yesType of Subsidy payment/kWhTax CreditBuy-Down Payment 0Year 1 Payment/kWh 0Federal Tax Rate 25%Federal Sales Tax 6%
Provincial Tax PositionUse Provincial Subsidy (yes or no)Type of SubsidyProvincial Tax CreditBuy-Down Payment 0Year 1 Payment/kWh 0
Provincial Tax Rate 11%Provincial Sales Tax 11%
Annual Reoccurring ExpensesTotal Expense 1.2%Applies to % of Installed Cost 100%
Power Purchase Agreement or ContractTariff T1 ($/kWh) $0.420 Term T1 (yr) 20Tariff T2 ($/kWh) $0.000 Term T2 (yr) 0Portion of T1 Adjusted for Infl 0%Portion of T2 Adjusted for Infl 0%
Avoided Cost of Energy ($/ $0.10
Solar Energy Cash Flow Calculator by Paul Gipe
ResultsDetermines yield. IRR-20 yr 1.8%Note that some projects are rated in kW AC. IRR-30 yr 8.8%Determines tax treatment. ROE-20 yr 2%
ROE-30 yr 18%NPV-20 yr ($185,466)
See tab: Yield Examples NPV-30 yr $37,843 Allowance for cell degradation over time. PI-20 yr -0.58Allowance for downtime to perform maintenance. PI-30 yr 0.12Any other losses not included in Yield estimate.
Desired. Used in WACC.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital. Used in NPV.
Use of subsidy optional.Type "payment/kWh", "tax credit", or "buy-down".There may be no tax credit available.There may be no payment available.There may be no payment available.
Use of subsidy optional.Type "payment/kWh", "tax credit", or "buy-down".There may be no tax credit available.There may be no payment available.There may be no payment available.
See tab: Annual Cost Examples
Current retail price of electricity.
AnnualizedAnnualizedUsing WACC
Using WACC
NPV/Equity InvestmentNPV/Equity Investment
Results
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
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29
30
31
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33
34
35
($1,000,000)
($500,000)
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
SolarShare Project
Year
Cu
mu
lativ
e C
ash
Flo
w
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
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35
($1,000,000)
($500,000)
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
SolarShare Project
Year
Cu
mu
lativ
e C
ash
Flo
w
Cash FlowYear 0 1 2
Income
Revenue from Generation $0 $103,200 $102,374 Provincial Sales Tax Rebate $177,600
Expenses
Equity Investment $320,000 Federal Sales Tax $96,000 Provincial Sales Tax $177,600 Annual Reoccurring Costs $0 $19,200 $19,680 Debt Repayment $0 $182,243 $182,243
Before Tax
Profit (Loss) ($593,600) $79,357 ($99,549)Cumulative Profit (Loss) ($593,600) ### ($613,792)
After Tax
After Tax Value of Depreciation $144,400 $216,600 $108,300 After Tax Value of Interest Expense $0 $32,346 $30,005 After Tax Value of Annual Reoccurring Cost $0 $6,931 $7,104
Profit (Loss) ($449,200) $335,234 $45,860 Cumulative Profit (Loss) ($449,200) ### ($68,106)
IRR-20 yr 1.8%IRR-30 yr 8.8%
ROE-20 yr 2% AnnualizedROE-30 yr 18% AnnualizedNPV-20 yr ($185,466) Using WACC
NPV-30 yr $37,843 Using WACC
PI-20 yr -0.58 NPV/Equity InvestmentPI-30 yr 0.12 NPV/Equity Investment
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
$101,555 $100,743 $99,937 $99,138 $98,344 $97,558 $96,777
$20,172 $20,676 $21,193 $21,723 $22,266 $22,823 $23,393 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243
($100,860) ($102,177) ($103,499) ($104,829) ($106,165) ($107,508) ($108,859)($714,652) ($816,828) ($920,328) ### ### ### ###
$54,150 $27,075 $13,538 $6,769 $3,384 $1,692 $846 $27,500 $24,819 $21,951 $18,883 $15,599 $12,086 $8,326
$7,282 $7,464 $7,651 $7,842 $8,038 $8,239 $8,445
($11,928) ($42,818) ($60,360) ($71,335) ($79,143) ($85,491) ($91,242)($80,034) ($122,853) ($183,212) ($254,548) ($333,691) ($419,183) ($510,424)
NPV/Equity InvestmentNPV/Equity Investment
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
$96,003 $93,020 $92,276 $91,538 $90,806 $90,079 $89,358
$23,978 $24,578 $25,192 $25,822 $26,467 $27,129 $27,807 $182,243 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
($110,218) $68,443 $67,084 $65,716 $64,338 $62,950 $61,551 ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
$423 $212 $106 $53 $26 $13 $7 $4,304 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $8,656 $8,873 $9,094 $9,322 $9,555 $9,794 $10,038
($96,835) $77,527 $76,284 $75,091 $73,919 $72,757 $71,596 ($607,260) ($529,733) ($453,449) ($378,358) ($304,439) ($231,682) ($160,086)
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
$88,644 $87,934 $87,231 $86,533 $36,914 $37,717 $38,538
$28,503 $29,215 $29,945 $30,694 $31,461 $32,248 $33,054 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$60,141 $58,719 $57,286 $55,839 $5,452 $5,469 $5,484 ### ### ### ### ($830,388) ($824,919) ($819,436)
$0
$3 $2 $1 $0 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$10,289 $10,547 $10,810 $11,081 $11,358 $11,642 $11,933
$70,434 $69,268 $68,097 $66,920 $161,210 $161,511 $161,816 ($89,652) ($20,385) $47,712 ### $275,842 $437,353 $599,169
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
$39,376 $40,233 $41,109 $42,003 $42,917 $43,851 $44,805
$33,881 $34,728 $35,596 $36,486 $37,398 $38,333 $39,291 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$5,496 $5,506 $5,513 $5,518 $5,519 $5,518 $5,514 ($813,940) ($808,434) ($802,921) ($797,403) ($791,884) ($786,366) ($780,851)
$144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$12,231 $12,537 $12,850 $13,171 $13,501 $13,838 $14,184
$162,127 $162,442 $162,763 $163,089 $163,420 $163,756 $164,098 $761,296 $923,738 ### ### ### ### ###
31 32 33 34 35
$45,780 $46,776 $47,794 $48,834 $49,897
$40,273 $41,280 $42,312 $43,370 $44,454 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$5,507 $5,496 $5,482 $5,464 $5,443 ($775,344) ($769,848) ($764,366) ($758,902) ($753,459)
$144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $144,400 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$14,539 $14,902 $15,275 $15,657 $16,048
$164,446 $164,798 $165,157 $165,521 $165,891 ### ### ### ### ###
Annual Reoccurring Expenses
Total Expense 1.2%Inflation Rate (General) 2.5%Installed Cost ###Applies to % of Installed Cos 100%
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
$0 ### ### ### ### ###
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Commercial Deductions
Installed Cost ###Class 43.2 Depreciation 50%First Year Rule 50%Federal Tax Rate 25%Provincial Tax Rate 11%Total Corporate Tax Rate 36.1%
CCA Capital Cost Allowance Canada Year 0 1 2 3
Opening Balance ### 1,200,000 600,000 300,000Depreciation 400,000 600,000 300,000 150,000
Maximum Depreciation 400,000 600,000 300,000 150,000Closing Balance ### 600,000 300,000 150,000
After Tax Value of Depreciation 144,400 216,600 108,300 54,150After Tax Value of Interest Expense 0 32,346 30,005 27,500After Tax Value of Annual Reoccurring Costs 0 6,931 7,104 7,282
Earnings Before Tax, Depreciation, & Amortization
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
150,000 75,000 37,500 18,750 9,375 4,688 2,344 1,172 58675,000 37,500 18,750 9,375 4,688 2,344 1,172 586 293
75,000 37,500 18,750 9,375 4,688 2,344 1,172 586 29375,000 37,500 18,750 9,375 4,688 2,344 1,172 586 293
27,075 13,538 6,769 3,384 1,692 846 423 212 10624,819 21,951 18,883 15,599 12,086 8,326 4,304 0 0
7,464 7,651 7,842 8,038 8,239 8,445 8,656 8,873 9,094
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
293 146 73 37 18 9 5 2 1146 73 37 18 9 5 2 1 1
146 73 37 18 9 5 2 1 1146 73 37 18 9 5 2 1 1
53 26 13 7 3 2 1 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9,322 9,555 9,794 10,038 10,289 10,547 10,810 11,081 ###
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
34 35
0 00 0
0 00 0
0 00 0
### ###
Annual Generation Revenue
Solar ResourceRated Power DC (kW) 200Yield (kWh/kW/yr) 1,200Annual Decrease in Yield -0.8%Availability 100%Array Efficiency 100%
Energy Generation Year 0 1 2 3 4Gross kWh/yr 0 240,000 238,080 236,175 234,286Net kWh/yr 0 240,000 238,080 236,175 234,286
Revenue
Gross Revenue $0 ### ### $99,194 ###Federal Production Payment $0 $2,400 $2,381 $2,362 $2,343 Federal Buy-Down Payment $0
Provincial Production Payment $0 State or Provincial Buy-Down Payment $0
Total $0 ### ### ### ###
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14232,412 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###232,412 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
$97,613 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###$2,324 $2,306 $2,287 $2,269 $2,251 $2,233 $0 $0 $0 $0
$99,937 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
35######
###$0
###
Inflation of Electricity Price
Price in Year 0 $0.10 Inflation Rate (Energy) 3%
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
$/kWh ### ### ### ### ### ###
Inflation of Tariff PaymentTariff T1 ($/kWh) $0.42 Term T1 (yr) 20Tariff T2 ($/kWh) $0.00 Term T2 (yr) 0Portion of T1 Adjusted for Inf 0%Portion of T2 Adjusted for Inf 0%
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
$/kWh ### ### ### ### ### ###
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Federal Tax Credits, Buy-Downs, or Production Payments
Federal Tax CreditType Tax Credit Cap
$
Commercial 30% 1.0E+9Residential 30% $2,000
Federal Buy-Down (Subsidy) PaymentType Payment Cap
$/kW kW
Commercial $0 1.0E+9Residential $0 100
Federal Production PaymentType Payment
Years $/kWhTerm 10
Commercial $0.01 Residential $0.01
State or Provincial Tax Credits, Buy-Downs, or Production Payments
State or Provincial Tax CreditType Tax Credit Cap
kW
Commercial 30% 1.0E+9Residential 30% $2,000
State or Provincial Buy-Down (Subsidy) PaymentType Payment Cap
$/kW kW
Commercial $0 100Residential $0 100
State or Provincial Production PaymentType Payment
Years $/kWhTerm 10
Commercial $0.00 Residential $0.00
Debt Repayment
Debt ###Term 10
Interest on Debt 7.0%
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Beginning Balance $0 ### ### ### ### ###Principal Payment $0 ($92,643) ($99,128) ### ### ###Closing Balance $0 ### ### $982,161 ### ###
Payment $0 $182,243 $182,243 $182,243 ### ###Interest Payment $0 $89,600 $83,115 $76,176 $68,751 $60,807
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
### ### ### ### #################################### ### ### ### #################################### ### ### ### $0 ##############################
### ### ### ### #################################$52,306 $43,211 $33,478 $23,065 $11,922 ##############################
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total
33 34 35
$0 $0 $0 ###$0 $0 $0 ###$0 $0 $0 ###
$0 $0 $0 ###$0 $0 $0 $542,432
Solar Radiation & Yields on Tilted Surface
mono-Si poly-Si SourcekWh/m2/ykWh/kW/ykWh/kW/y
GermanyHamburg 1,110 938 RetScreenKassel 1,100 932 RetScreenNuernburg 1,180 994 RetScreenStuttgart 1,300 1,089 RetScreen
CanadaToronto, ON 1,450 1,217 1,089 RetScreenToronto, ON/Sanyo 1,180 RetScreenToronto, ON 1,486 1,083 NRELWiarton, ON 1,590 1,345 RetScreenOttawa, ON 1,490 1,262 RetScreenOttawa, ON 1,580 1,166 NREL
FranceNice, France 1,790 1,457 RetScreen
ItalyRome 1,400 RetScreen
SpainMadrid 1,442 RetScreen
USABakersfield, 1,965 1,637 RetScreenBakersfield, 2,124 1,461 NRELSacramento, 1,920 1,599 RetScreenAverage, CA 1,500 RetScreenSalem, OR 1,500 1,253 RetScreenBend, OR 1,590 1,328 RetScreenAverage, OR 1,168 RetScreenAlbany, NY 1,540 1,318 RetScreenNew York, NY 1,353 RetScreenNew York, NY 1,218 NRELMadison, WI 1,375 RetScreenMilwaulkee, 1,500 1,350 RetScreenMilwaulkee, 1,653 1,227 NRELEau Claire, WI 1,367 RetScreenMinneapolis, 1,730 1,286 NREL
Source: RETScreen® Solar Resource and System Load Calculation - Photovoltaic Project
http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/codes_algs/PVWATTS/
Average generation from solar in California in 2005 ~1,500 kWh/kW is ~203 GWh. CEC-300-2006-009-F.
Average generation from solar in California is 1,150 kWh/kW, Measured Performance of California Buydown Program, Residential PV Systems, Regional Economic Research.
Average generation for Oregon ~1,168 kWh/kW. ODOE, Christopher Dymond.
Annual Reoccurring (Running) Costs
Fesa B31 Reoccurring ExpensesYear 2
Installed Cost ###Reoccurring Expenses % of Installed Cost
Deductible start-up costs
Management 6,691 0.3%Tax advice 1,500 0.1%Land lease 500 0.0%System monitoring 2,979 0.2%Maintenance and repair 1,020 0.1%Provision for removal 1,065 0.1%Insurance 5,477 0.3%Subtotal of expenses 19,232 1.0%
Regionsonne Breisgau Buergerbeteiligung
Year 1Installed Cost ###Reoccurring Expenses % of Installed Cost
Deductible start-up costs 0.0%Management 12,915 0.5%Tax advice 0.0%Land lease 0.0%System monitoring 0.0%Maintenance and repair 9,228 0.4%Provision for removal 1,820 0.1%Insurance 7,175 0.3%Subtotal of expenses 31,138 1.2%
Stuttgart School Roof Top Buergerbeteiligung
Year 1Installed Cost ###Reoccurring Expenses % of Installed Cost
Deductible start-up c 0 0.0%Management 6,163 0.2%Tax advice 1,530 0.1%Land lease 0 0.0%Roof reconstruction 0 0.0%System monitoring 0.0%Maintenance and repa 5,507 0.2%Provision for removal 720 0.0%Insurance 3,231 0.1%Partner commission 1,250 0.0%
Subtotal of expenses 18,401 0.7%
Average
Total Installed Cost ###Total Expenses 68,771 1.2%