socio-economic aspect of mobile application in · pdf filesocio-economic aspect of mobile...

OECD FORESIGHT FORUM 2011

Socio-Economic Aspect of Mobile Application

in Japan

October 26, 2011

Dr. Makoto Yokozawa

Nomura Research Institute

Professor of Collaborative Research Unit,

MOIS Labo., Kyoto University

http://www.mois.asia/

.

Copyright(C) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

AGENDA

• Ubiquity and Mobile Applications

• Mobile Applications as the Gateway to ICT Innovation

Current Status and Issues of Mobile Application

• Risk management and Resilience – APEC 2011 DSG Seminar Output

The “311” Quake-Tsunami-Nuclear Disaster

• Bandwidth Governance

• Frequency Management Policy to Enlarge Capacity for Mobile Communication

• NFC Applications and Electronic Money Systems in Japan

Numbers and Trends in Mobile Applications in Japan

• Open Government

• Participative Mobile Applications, Games and Social Medias

Cloud and Crowd, Left and Right … Ubiquity and Innovation

• Policy Scope in Japan

• Reliability and Resilience in Mobile Applications

Conclusion

1


Ubiquity and Mobile Applications, A DAY IN THE NETWORK LIFE

2

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2005 Networked Life Scenes

A Day in the Network

Life, from Morning to

Midnight, Clockwise

Human Centered

Network Connection

360 degree around,

24hours

Ubiquitous Network

Society and Structural

Reform in Business and

Industry

“Life and Business with

ICTs, everywhere,

everyone, 24hr

365days”


Mobile Applications are the Gateway to ICT Innovation

Safety and Reliability

Aging Society Disaster

Readiness and Recovery

Green and Sustainability

Healthcare and Medicare

Innovation and Growth

Employment Education

3

Ubiquitous Mobile Applications,

Everyone, Everywhere and Everytime

SOCIAL ISSUES


Damaged by 311 TUSNAMI

www.iwate-np.co.jp

http://www.iwate-np.co.jp/cgi-bin/topnews.cgi?20110323_14


DISASTER READINESS

IN ICT

DISASTER READINESS

BY ICT

FORECASTING DISASTER

MONITORING NATURE

ANALYSING DATA

SECURING INFRA

QUICK RESPONSE

TRANSPARENCY

APEC TEL44 DSG OUTPUT FROM DISASTER MANAGEMENT

SEMINAR,

MODERATOR’S NOTE … 3 PHASES AND “IN ICT/BY ICT”

7

RISK MITIGATION

IN ICT

RISK MITIGATION

BY ICT

DESCISION MAKING

ALERT SYSYTEM

QUICK RESPONSE

KNOWLEDGE SHARING

VISUALIZATION IN

MANAGEMENT

DISTRIBUTED DATA CENTER

RESILIENCE

IN ICT

RESILIENCE

BY ICT

RESILIENCE BY DESIGN

COMMUNICATION

PLANNING

STANDARDIZATION

REDUNDANCY

COMMUNICATION

The 10m High Anti-Tsunami Wall was

not Sufficient.

EMERGENCY

ALERT!

PREPARE FOR

THE SHOCK

Facebook from

Refuge by

Mobile

READINESS RISK MITIGATION RESILIENCE

Google Crisis Response

Road Closure Map


Damages in Mobile Communication at 311 Disaster

NTT DocoMo

au E-mobile Willcom

Softbank

6,720

3,680 3,786

704

13,760

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000 15000

～～

Stations

29,000 Base Stations of 4 Operators Lost Functionality

Peak Numbers of Lost Stations of Each Operator

Damages in Base Stations

NTT DoCoMo

Voice

NTT DoCoMo

Data

au

Voice

au

Data

Softbank

Voice

Softbank

Data

%

Congestion

70-95% of inbound/outbound Voice calls was suppressed

Maximum Suppression Rate (in Red) of Each Operator

90%

30%

95%

0%

70%

0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

NTT DoCoMo transmission

facilities in Iwate

(Source NTT DoCoMo)

Packet Data Communication

was not affected so much


Traffic Shaping for Mobile Users

by Major Mobile Operators in Japan

Congestions are Not Only in the Disastrous Areas

Operator

Shaping Criteria

Shaping

Duration

Date

Started

KDDI（au）Smartphones

300Million Packets/Consecutive 3 Days =122MB/Day

24 hours Oct.1, 2011

KDDI（au）

Feature Phones

(non-smart)

300Million Packets/Month =12MB/Day

One Month

(21:00-25:00) Oct.1,2008

E mobile

300Million Packets/Day =366MB/Day

One Day

(21:00-26:00) Oct.24,2010

Softbank Mobile

Smartphones

1000Million Packets/Month =41MB/Day One Month

Dec. 1, 2009

Softbank Mobile

Feature Phones

(non-smart)

Feature (Non-Smart) Phones

300Million Packets/Month =12MB/Day One Month

Dec. 1, 2009

NTT DoCoMo 3G


24 hours Oct. 1, 2009

NTT DoCoMo LTE


(7GB/Month from Oct 2012)

24 hours

(One Month)

Dec.24,2010

(Oct.1,2012)

(planned)

0

50

100

150

200

250

JUN2011 SEP2011

16 19

166 184

Downlink Uplink

Average Monthly Traffic per User

MB/User/Month

Quarterly Traffic Growth 13.2%

(64% per Year)


Growth in Smartphone Market in Japan

10

スマートフォンの普及状況

【出典】（株）ＭＭ総研「国内携帯電話およびスマートフォンの市場規模予測」

スマートフォン販売台数は、 2015年度には2,030万台に達し、携帯電話販売台数に占める販売台数比率は54.6%になると予測されている。

スマートフォンの契約数は、 2015年度には4,760万件に拡大し、携帯電話端末の契約数※に占めるスマートフォンの契約率は40%に達すると予測されている。

※ 通信カード・通信モジュール契約数を除く

217万台

386万台

660万台

1,050万台

1,530万台

1,840万台

2,030万台

2009年度のスマートフォン販売台数は、iPhoneの好調等により217万台に。

2010年以降、Android搭載機が相次いで発売されてからは普及がさらに加速。

3

Forecasted Sales of Smartphone

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sales (Million Sets)

25

20

15

10

5

0

Subscriptions

LTE/WiMax

Smartphones

Digital TV Tuner

NFC Payment by

Smartphones

Game Phones


NFC Mobile Applications in Japan

11

Urban Transportation

Airline Boarding

Mobile Payments

Loyalty Programs

Personalized Marketing

Wallets in Cellphone


Frequency Re-organization Action Plan 2011

700/900MHz Bands to be Re-Organized for Mobile Communications

710 715 725 730 770 806 815 830 845 860 875 890

915 950 958

820 840 860 880 900 920 940 800 760 960 740 720

(MHz)

710

MCA MCA ITS DTV RFID

780

KDDI(au)

NTT DoCoMo

FPU / Radio Microphone

ｱﾅﾛｸﾞｱﾅﾛｸﾞ

Voice

STL/TTL

Radio Microphones

２

With use of GHz Bands,

300MHz bandwidth in 2015 and 1500MHz bandwidth in 2020 are Planned


Cloud and Crowd as Mobile Applications

13

Social Medias on the Clound Computing

Wisdom of the Crowd

Reliability Increase Rating

of Information Sources

At 311 Disaster

(Source:NR, 2011I)

Public TV News

Web Portal Sites

Social Medias

University and

Research Institute

Governments

Commercial

Broadcasting

Newspaper

Challenges :The use of SNS by public agencies

（Advantage）

The use of Twitter allows to…

provide information directly to large

number of people instantly.

•Breaking news

•Disaster information

Distribute information through PC

or mobile devices

•No need for special equipments

（Risk ）

Spoofing eventually distorting the real information (It’s important to reach to the accurate primary

information. )

The government created a guideline(April 5,2011 ) & mechanism to verify the authenticity of the public agency’s Twitter account.

After the earthquake (3/11), greater number of governmental

agencies and public institutions actively use SNS to distribute

public information including breaking news and disaster

information.

94

101

106108

113

121

148

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

２２年１０月

１１月

１２月

２３年１月

２月

３月（震災前）

４月４日現在

行政機関のツイッターアカウント数の推移

国・地方公共団体等のTwitterアカウント数の推移

（経済産業省調べ）

Transition of the number of public agency’s Twitter account

(2010) Oct. Nov. Dec. (2011)Jan. Feb. Mar.10th Apr

After 3.11


Smartphone Application Prize 2011 for Energy Saving

Encourage Developers for Application

Foster Energy Saving Mindset of Consumers by Using Smartphone Application

Usability Prize Functionality

Prize and

Idea Prize

Design Prize

Electricity Saving Meter Electricity Usage Widget Blackout Finder


CONCLUSIONS

Basic Policy Scope in Japan

Mobile Communication and its application will be one of the new source for the growth

Focusing on Strategy to promote the readiness of infrastructure

Also Focusing on Strategy to foster innovative applications for new life and business styles

Reliability and Resilience in Mobile Applications

Safety, Reliability and Resilience in Mobile Applications is vital for business creation

Robustness as a Critical Infrastructure of the Society needs Long Term Frequency Management

Bandwidth and Capacity needs to be Improved by Next Generation Technology

Social and Economic Factor of Mobile Applications

Disaster Management and Quick Recovery of the Community by Mobile Application

New Innovation Tools for Business, such as Personalized Marketing by NFC, Contents Delivery Platforms and the Energy Saving Application

Open Government and Participative Business and Community

16

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