Social Strategy Shift: Avoiding Globalization Threats

Social Strategy Shift: Avoiding Globalization Threats

Pavel LukshaHigher School of Economics

http://www.geocities.com/pluksha bowin@mail.ru

Presentation for RC51 SOCIOCYBERNETICS Conference

Lisbon, July 26-31, 2004

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AgendaAgenda

• Globalization and Growth• Deriving Meta-Startegies from Minimal Self-

Reproductive Structure of Society• Self-Organized Criticality of Meta-Strategies• Coping with SOC By Counter-Programs• Cultural Dissemination as Meta-Strategic Shift

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Threats of GlobalizationThreats of Globalization

• Globalization is a multi-facet process that involves economic, ecological, political and cultural aspects (Beck 1997, Therborn 2001). It has now clearly presented its failures (Stiglitz, 2002)

• Following critical ‘knots’ identified for both developing and developed countries (Fuchs, 2003): (1) environmental crisis [unlimited use of non-renewable resources and critical

over-exploitation of renewables]; (2) socio-economic crisis [growing difference between richest and poorest part

of society, and rich and poor societies, and thereby emerging discontent]; (3) social crisis [degradation and elimination of traditional social institutions

such as family, friendship etc.]; (4) cultural crisis [degradation and destruction of culture, especially due to its

‘commercialization’].

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Growth as Source of ThreatGrowth as Source of Threat

• ‘Knot problems’ are due to globalization driving force: the constant growth and development of capitalistic system that requires growing resource absorption and increasing involvement of social individuals into globalizing markets

• Economic growth has become an ultimate value of societies, and a scope of state policies. The main reason behind this is competition between societies (e.g. (Stewart, 2000))

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Growth as a Strategy of CompetitionGrowth as a Strategy of Competition

• Economic growth has become a major (meta-)strategy of winning intra-society competition (see e.g. (Charlton, Andras, 2003))

• It has emerged as a response to threats of other competitive strategies, in particular, ‘war conflict’ strategy, that resulted in major massacre never seen by humanity before: WWI & WWII [multiple indications of speeding-up globalization as an economic process after WWII (Krugman, 1995), (Baldwin&Martin, 1999) etc.]

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Minimal Self-Reproductive StructureMinimal Self-Reproductive Structure

Activity / passivity of social indi-

viduals (expressed through bodies)

Natural (outer) environment of social system

Social memory (languages,technologies, rituals etc.)

in individual memory

executing regulatory structures of social system

objects and structures outside of given social system (nature, other societies)

controlling regulatory structures of social system

Social individuals

Social system

Artificial (inner) environment•means of production•objects of consumption•non-economic material culture (e.g. sacred objects)

executing regulatory structures of social system natural environment

internal memory

internal SAFE / external memory

external SAFE

non-contact environment

element of informational / cybernetic system (Luksha, Plekhanov, 2003)

from (Luksha, 2001), amended

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Meta-strategies executedMeta-strategies executed•It is evident that societies undergo the evolutionary process, as do other biological and social entities (Campbell, 1965, 1974; Plotkin, 1994; Dennet, 1995)

•Evolving entities can overcome their opponents by quantitative suppression or by open aggression

•Four major meta-strategies executed. Other strategies possible?

element of society suppression destruction

social memory replication of social memory of a given society

warfare as the harmonized activity of social memory, soma and military meanssoma

(human biology)replication of genome of a given population (society)

artificial environment reproduction of artificial environment of a given society

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Meta-strategies of Social CompetitionMeta-strategies of Social Competition

Meta-Strategy Description Value System Dominating Hierarchy

Period of European History

(a) genetic suppression

growth of population quantity [competition in strict Darwinistic sense]

sex, love and family

kindred / age hierarchy [importance of women]

Primitive (often: pre-historical)

(b) war conflicts destructive conflict interactions: military and conquering activities

military valor military and political hierarchy [importance of men]

Ancient World / Feudalism

(c) economic suppression

growth of volume and borders of ‘technological sphere’ [society artificial environment], increase in quantity and variety of material goods available

economic prosperity and max. consumption

economic (property and wealth) hierarchy [importance of equality]

Modernity [Age of Capitalism]

(d) cultural dissemination

distribution of social memory of a given society: ‘creeping capture’ of other societies

creativity; cognition; dissemination of knowledge

hierarchies of experts and creators

Post-Modernity [Age of Information Society?]

•Throughout human history, meta-strategies yielded different dominating values and social hierarchies. Economic suppression as a new ‘world system’ that emerged in Medieval Europe (Wallerstein, 1974, 1997)

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Relationship of StrategiesRelationship of Strategies

Meta-Strategy Type of Competition Relationship of Strategies (a) genetic suppression

‘Olympic games’ often precedes (b) [Mongolian and Huns Invasions, ‘Drang nach Osten’ etc.]

(b) war conflicts destructive competition can precede (a), (d) (c) economic suppression

‘Olympic games’ can precede, or replace, (b) [arms race, e.g. ‘Cold War’]

(d) cultural dissemination

less explicit form of competition (‘creeping capture’)

can compliment (a), (b) and (c) [few examples are: Islamic world, Slavic brotherhood, American nation, dissemination of Christianity and capitalism, etc.]

•Meta-strategies were often realized inter-dependently, more explicit competition complemented with less explicit one

•However, one type of strategy always remains dominant for a given society

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Few Indications: Genetic SuppressionFew Indications: Genetic Suppression

1970-75 2000-05East Asia and the Pacific 5 2Latin America 5.1 2.5South Asia 5.6 3.3Sub-Saharan Africa 6.8 5.4Central & Eastern Europe & CIS 2.5 1.4Middle East & North Africa 6.7 3.8OECD 2.5 1.8

rate of fertilityworld regions

Female fertility in different world regions, 1970-75 and 2000-05

Source: (UN HDR, 2003)

overall fertility decreasing, rates of

decrease are different

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Few Indications: War ConflictsFew Indications: War Conflicts

civil wars

conflicts with developed countries (of them, US)

conflicts with developing countries

total

East Asia and Pacific 4 3(2) 3 10 Sub-Saharian Africa 5 - 1 6 South Asia 2 2(2) 4 8 Latin America and Caribbean

3 3(2) - 6

Central, Southern and Eastern Europe and the CIS

2 1(1) 2 5

Middle East and Northern Africa

4 8(2) 1 13

Total 18 17(9) 11 46

Major war conflicts, 1950-2004

Major war conflicts within developed countries:1900-1925: 5, including WWI1926-1950: 3, including WWII1950-2004: 0

Calculations based on (Teeple, 2002) and author’s amendments

importance reduced during

last 25 yrs

increasing importance in

last 25 yrs

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Few Indications: Economic SuppressionFew Indications: Economic Suppression

Indications of economic development in different regions, 2001

WORLD REGIONSGDP per capita

GDP pc growth 1975-2001

MFG as % of exports

East Asia and the Pacific 4233 5.9 86Latin America 7050 0.7 49South Asia 2730 2.4 55Sub-Saharan Africa 1831 -0.9 33Central & Eastern Europe & CIS 6598 -2.5 55Middle East & North Africa 5038 0.3 19OECD 23363 2 81

Source: (UN HDR, 2003)

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Readiness for Cultural DisseminationReadiness for Cultural Dissemination

Indications of ‘cultural dissemination infrastructure’ in different regions, 2001

Although cultural level may be comparable, the ‘digital divide’ and institutional infrastructure makes OECD countries the only capable to accomplish the strategic shift towards ‘cultural dissemination’ strategy

Source: (UN HDR, 2003)

WORLD REGIONSUN educ index

internet users

cellular subscribers

royalties and license fees

East Asia and the Pacific 0.80 41.4 113 0.1Latin America 0.86 49.0 160 0.7South Asia 0.56 6.3 7 n/aSub-Saharan Africa 0.56 7.8 28 0.1Central & Eastern Europe & CIS 0.92 42.8 120 1.0Middle East & North Africa 0.63 15.6 58 0.3OECD 0.94 332.0 539 62.7

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Regional Strategies PursuedRegional Strategies Pursued

WORLD REGION Class of Meta-Strategy

Meta-Strategy

East Asia and Pacific

PURE economic suppression

Latin America TRANSITION no clear strategy chosen

South Asia MIX genetic suppression;

[shifting to] economic suppression

Sub-Saharian Africa PURE genetic suppression

CEE & CIS TRANSITION no clear strategy chosen

Middle East & North Africa

MIX genetic suppression; war conflicts [?]

OECD MIX economic suppression; war conflicts [with non-OECD countries, esp. Arab States]; cultural dissemination

Rough indication of dominating meta-strategies

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SOC of Meta-StrategiesSOC of Meta-Strategies

• Despite its ‘positive’ side for a society (that is, survival), every program bears inside itself a threat of society elimination; its implementation is always a self-organized criticality (SOC).

• A chance to avoid a crisis is to change the dominating strategy (driven by set of social values) – that is, to introduce a ‘counter-program’. On different stages of human history, most competitive civilizations were able to do so.

• Shift of ideology and universal widespread of counter-programs also destroys the existing system of values, and a corresponding social hierarchy: kindred and age hierarchies have been devalued with widespreading of political and military hierarchies; the latter have lost their significance as soon as economic hierarchies start to dominate.

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SOCs and Counter-ProgramsSOCs and Counter-ProgramsMeta-Strategy Threat(s) of SOC SOC Counter-Program(s) (a) genetic suppression

overpopulation moral restrictions (‘celibacy’ etc); population control; ‘better quality children’

(b) war conflicts increasing number of war conflicts and possibility of omnicide

pacifism (incl.: it is better to trade than to battle); terrorism (minimal number of deaths, but great impact)

(c) economic suppression

1. excessive use of natural resources 2. growing inequality 3. de-humanization and ‘consumization’ of culture and other non-economic spheres

1. ‘environmental awareness’, ‘green movement’ 2. egalitarian ideologies and practices 3. various (e.g. preservation through ‘esoteric circles’ in culture)

(d) cultural dissemination

potential threats: - ‘crisis of knowledge’ (Willke, 2002) - ‘negative selection’ of cultural samples (degradation of culture) - public opinion manipulations - distribution of cultures favoring ignorance, hate and aggression; etc.

? (counter-programs unrevealed)

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Counter-program developmentCounter-program development

implementation of meta-strategy (driven

by value system)

emergence of SOC

social concern about new risk

shift of value system

social discontent dueto reduction of ‘old’

hierarchies and values

emergence of a newalternate strategy

socialself-reflection variety of social

strategies ‘supplied’ byvarious strata

•Even if homogenous initially, societies will performa ‘mix’ of strategies after several ‘shifts’ (both between them and inside them)

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SOC: Current StatusSOC: Current StatusMeta-Strategy SOC manifestations Regions in which

risk was (mostly) overcome Regions for which risk remains

(a) genetic suppression

overpopulation crises: medival and 19th century Europe; modern Africa; etc.

countries with low birth and mortality (most developed countries); countries that introduced birth control

parts of Southern and Eastern Asia (e.g. India), of Latin America and of Africa

(b) war conflicts

conquering and colonial wars; WWI/WWII

developed countries (esp. those in possess of MDW, or their alliances)

aggression of developed countries against developing (e.g. Pax Americana), some developing countries

destruction of natural environment

some developed countries (pollution reduction programs)

socio-economic conflicts

some developed countries (socially responsible states)

newly industrialized countries (emerging economies)

(c) economic suppression

‘dehumanization’ and ‘consumization’ of non-market institutions

? (alternatives still unclear, should emerge along with ‘alternatives to capitalism’, e.g. ‘new families’ (Budgeon, Roseneil, 2004))

most developed and developing countries

(d) cultural dissemination

risks still unrevealed

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Shift Toward Culture Dissemination Strategy

Shift Toward Culture Dissemination Strategy

• The shift from ‘economic suppression’ strategy towards ‘cultural dissemination’ strategy occurs presently in most developed countries. Some of its manifestations are observable (Internet information boom, TV-democracies, Hollywoodization etc.), noted e.g. as the ‘Third Wave’ by Toffler (1991) [although Toffler reduces these processes primarily to economic ones].

• Shifts in economy are also noticeable, with capitalism switching from ‘exploitation of men and machines’ towards ‘utilization of competences’, and increased importance of services, knowledge and culture. It has been argued that the contemporary variety of capitalism is quite different from what it used to be in mid-19th century England when Marx made his account of it (Hodgson, 2002).

• The contemporary period is transitional, with major changes of values and social hierarchies; most likely, a new dominating hierarchy shall be based on intellectual and creative capabilities of society members.

• New social formation, that will present its own threats, most likely should not be called ‘capitalism’ at all: values and targets of this formation will be notably different from those traditionally accepted in capitalistic society.

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Key Issues for Emerging SocietyKey Issues for Emerging SocietyDemolition of• traditional pricing mechanisms

– the traditional pricing mechanism was an efficient self-organization rule for self-reproducing society: thus, theories of ‘natural price’ such as Marxist labor theory of value; with intangible goods dominating exchange, this does work anymore

• traditional property mechanisms– how to restrict usage of idea, when ideas are produced by ideas; how to

restrict reproduction of ideas, when ideas are translated through their retranslation (why pirate and not schoolteacher); etc.

• traditional economic motivation– people are interested no more in getting their ‘share of material well-

being’, but rather in interesting and creative work– reduction of ‘work-hobby’ contraposition– volunteer economics – gift as socio-economic activity (Kendall, 2003)

• traditional human relationship system interlocked with the property relationships (e.g. traditional family)– networking structures and ‘new families’ based on friendship (Rosneil,

Budgeon, 2004)

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Strategic Shift: Chance for Crisis ResolutionStrategic Shift: Chance for Crisis Resolution

• The contemporary economic system of global labor division rests upon inequality: knowledge-producers exploiting knowledge-users

• The ‘shift’ of strategy therefore does not imply that globalization threats are resolved globally – they are ‘outsourced’ from most developed countries into those developing

HOWEVERthere exist opportunities to launch the process on the global scale:• Countries attaining the level of technological development in material

production comparable with OECD countries, with a minimal share of human labor involved into manufacturing activities, and the military force parity (e.g. by access to MDW) may transit to the ‘cultural competition’

• Mass-scale change of consuming habits towards ‘responsible consumption’ due to public awareness [recent examples of ‘minor’ concern: CFC] and ethical reasoning could undermine the basis of global economy growth [back to middle-age philosophy of need-driven consumption?]

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Implications for Global CrisisImplications for Global Crisis• It thus can be argued that resolution of crises presented by

globalization (as an expansion of capitalism) may occur naturally, as values supporting ‘counter-programs’ to ‘economic suppression’ strategy disseminate.

• This process will be pioneered by developed countries, yet still for a relatively long time other meta-strategies will also remain executed.

BUT: this only ‘a possible world’:• The lesson of WWI/II: society had to run into all threats before

it coped with them. Will the contemporary societies be wiser not to run into threats presented by global capitalism?

• Self-reflective nature of societies allows to amplify the tendencies and make the transition process towards new sustainable strategy less painful; the role of social scientists to point out to existing threats and possible ‘way out’ should not be underestimated.