SOCIAL MOBILITY – ARE WE GETTING ANYWHERE?

Quaglino’s, Thursday 12 September

AGENDA FOR TODAYWelcome – Simon Rogers

THE ECONOMIC FORECASTDennis will provide his usual unique take on the macro economy, focusing on the impact of cuts

in public sector spending and will share his views on how it needs to reform for the future.THIS DEBATE IS HERE TO STAY!

Stephen Isherwood, CEO, Association of Graduate Recruiters, will share some extracts from the recent AGR annual survey of employers, looking at how firms are measuring

progress in recruiting a socially diverse workforce and how the social mobility debate in graduate recruitment is getting a lot more attention.

THE CLASS CEILINGPolly Toynbee, political and social commentator, The Guardian, will talk about

the broad structural problems within our society that invariably lead to an imbalance of opportunity for young people.ARE WE GETTING ANYWHERE?

Simon Howard, Chairman, work group, will argue that, no matter how much employers might trumpet their commitment to diversity and inclusion, their current graduate

recruitment practices result in low levels of social mobility – and always will.

Unveiling the new TARGETjobs

New features of TARGETjobs

• Employer hubs – company information, jobs and how to get hired advice in one designer microsite

• Responsive design – easy navigation across mobile, tablet and desktop• Personalisation benefits – including saved search and companies launching early

October• Direct access to timely career advice – improved homepage and sector homepage layout

to direct users to key content• Improved search – all content searchable, discoverable and easy to access

National Graduate Employability Conference• The only employability

conference in the UK to bring together 600–800 multi-disciplinary undergraduates with recruiters and universities

• Keynote speaker announced shortly

• Facilitated by Radio 1’s Aled Haydn-Jones

• Presentations, cross-sector panel debates, interactive mixed-table discussions and networking sessions

• Sponsorship opportunities available including hosting your own table of students from your target course area

New 11 November at Wembley

Stadium

trendence UK Graduate Barometer

• Brand new London-based research centre• Dedicated UK research team• 25,000 students will take part over next 6 months• 400 employers• A NEW diversity focus for 2014 – covering ethnicity,

nationality, social mobility, gender…

As well as…..uniquely surveying students in a way that generates insights by year group, Russell Group vs non-Russell Group and by individual campuses, offering a bespoke competitor analysis and much more….

Bespoke reports

Workshop

Online tool

NEW trendence Law Student Barometer

• 50+ key STEM course campuses

• 4000+ responses• STEM female students only,

cut by year groupCompetitor AnalysisA NEW! Diversity focus Line your firm up against the

top 10 firms that STEM females most want to work for – and find out why!

• 25 key law course campuses

• 3000+ responses• Law & non-law students,

cut by year groupCompetitor AnalysisA NEW! Diversity focus Collecting 25% more

responses from Law Students @ target group campuses and courses

NEW trendence STEM female Student Barometer

Bespoke reports

Workshop

Online tool

THE ECONOMIC FORECAST

Dennis Turner, former chief economist, HSBC Bank plc

THE RECOVERY STRENGTHENS

The recovery takes hold

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% QUARTERLY

ANNUAL

Long-term average

But bumps in the road remain

1 Consumer debt overhang

75

100

125

150

175

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

%

75

100

125

150

175

%

Household debt:income ratios

2 Europe still in the doldrums

20102011

2013

20142012

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

%

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

%

Euro Area Greece Portugal Spain

GDP growth

3 Unemployment stubbornly high

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

% o

f wo

rkfo

rce

Unemployed 000s (L axis)Unemployment rate (R axis)

4 The squeeze on the public sector

a) Finances

Government finances weakened

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12

% o

f G

DP

20

25

30

35

40

45

50%

of G

DP

CURRENT REVENUE (RHS)

CURRENT EXPENDITURE (RHS)

SURPLUS/DEFICIT (LHS)

So net debt (as a % of GDP) soared

Sustainable Investment Rule

Budget Statement, March 2013

Getting the deficit down

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016-17 2017-18

£ bn

0

2

4

6

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10

12

%

Net borrowing (L axis)

% of GDP* (R axis)

Govt receipts and spending

35

40

45

50

55

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

% of

GDP

Budget Statement, March 2013

----- Spending----- Receipts

4 The squeeze on the public sector

a) Jobs

Public sector employment

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

%

Public v private employment trends

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12

14

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22

24

26

28

30

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,0000

00

s

------ Public sector share (%)------ Total employment (000s)

Annual changes in employment

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

---- Private sector---- Public sector

Regional dependencies on public sector

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

NorthEast

NorthWest

Yorksand

Humb

EastMidlands

WestMidlands

East ofEngland

London SouthEast

SouthWest

Wales Scotland NorthernIreland

%

OUTLOOK

Inflation – now likely to ease

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% c

han

ge m

on

th o

n m

on

th

CPI RPI

Target

Range

Interest rates to stay low

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%Forecast

GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%)

Where is growth coming from?

Real earnings starting to grow again

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Average earnings growth

Consumer price inflation

Real earnings growth

%

So, a slow consumer recovery

-3.5

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

% C

HA

NG

E

Consumer spending growth (%)

GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) +

Investment (15%)

Where is growth coming from?

Companies reluctant to spend but

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

%

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140£

billio

n

Investment relative to post-tax surplus(L axis)

Level of investment (R axis)

Investment by Private Non-financial Corporations

investment to pick up……at last

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% a

nn

ual

gro

wth

Business Investment

Forecast – OBR 2013

GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) +

Investment (15%) +

Government spending (23%)

Where is growth coming from?

Govt unwilling contributors to spending

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016-17 2017-18

£ bn

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

%

Net borrowing (L axis)

% of GDP* (R axis)

GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) +

Govt consumption (23%) +

Investment (15%) +

Net trade (-2%) (Exports 30% – Imports 32%)

Where is growth coming from?

Trade becomes a plus for growth

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

% o

f G

DP

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9A

nn

ual %

chan

ge

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT (LHS)

Annual export growth (% RHS)

Annual import growth (% RHS)

Turning the corner

Sluggish growth as good as it gets

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

%

QUARTERLY

ANNUAL

Long-term average

Forecast

THANK YOU

A classy approach to Social Mobility

Stephen Isherwood, Chief Executive, Association of Graduate Recruiters

The charts that shame Britain Source: The

Guardian

The business case – the economy suffers

“Without proper investment in skills, people languish on the margins of society, technological progress does not translate into economic growth, and countries can

no longer compete in an increasingly knowledge-based global society”

Andreas Schleicher, OECD, 2012

The business case – shrinking talent pools

Base population 735,000Base GDP 2012 - £1,541,000mSource: Office for National Statistics

Diversity is an American import

• Ethnicity• Gender• Disabilities• Sexual orientation

Diversity is an American import

• Ethnicity• Gender• Disabilities• Sexual orientation

Class

The heart of the problem

Children's behavioural styles at age 3 are

linked to their adult personality traits at

age 26By Avshalom Caspi, et al, Institute of

Psychiatry, Kings College London & University of Wisconsin-Madison: Journal of Personality,

71(4), 2003, p. 496-513.

Children whose parents earned over

£691 per week had an advantage equivalent to being almost three

months older than those whose parents earned less than £193

per week‘Social Class and Inequalities in Early Cognitive

Scores’, by Alice Sullivan, Sosthenes Ketende and Heather Joshi, was published in the

journal Sociology in April 2013.

Children with professional parents

were more than seven months ahead of their peers whose parents

had manual jobs‘Social Class and Inequalities in Early Cognitive

Scores’, by Alice Sullivan, Sosthenes Ketende and Heather Joshi, was published in the

journal Sociology in April 2013.

Our industry must start measuring

Source: AGR Summer Survey 2013

Best practice

• ProgrammesAllen & Overy–Smart Start Summer work experience for 16-17 yr olds from disadvantaged backgrounds now in fifth year – over 500 students–Winner of AGR Social Mobility Award

• MeasurementTeach First–32% of intake 1st generation to university, 23% free school meals or EMA–All applicants asked about their school, free school meals entitlement and first generation at university status

Best practice

• AGR guide to Social Mobility on www.agr.org.uk

• Diversity Forum for members on 27th Sept – book online

NEW SOCIAL MOBILITY AWARD

• Define exactly what you mean by Social Mobility within your organisation• State the aims and objectives of your social mobility strategy (with

timescales)• What is the evidence that these have been successfully achieved/partly

achieved and what metrics have you put in place to measure their success now and in the future?

• What is the impact of your social mobility actions to the business now and what do you expect it to be in five years’ time?

• How did you sell your social mobility strategy to the business?• How have you promoted/plan to promote the strategy to potential

applicants? Please give examples

Entry forms available from early October

THE GLASS CEILING

Polly Toynbee, political and social commentator, The Guardian

ARE WE GETTING ANYWHERE?

Simon Howard, Chairman, work group

The graduate jobs market

SCHOOL

72% of privately educated students get a 2:1+

64% of state educated students get a 2:1+SOCIAL CLASS

70% of grads from the top two social classes get

2:1+

58% of 2:1+ come from top two social classes

Graduate recruitment practices that limit social mobility

1. Degree class

SUMMARYA 2:1 bar favours graduates educated at private schools as well

as those from privileged family backgrounds

Source: RGCC analysis of HESA data

SCHOOL

62% of privately educated entrants have 360+

Versus only 37% of state school entrantsSOCIAL CLASS

47% of entrants from top two classes gain 360+

Versus 34% of entrants from all other social

classes

Graduate recruitment practices that limit social mobility

2. Tariff points

SUMMARYA levels (UCAS tariff points) are a poor predictor of academic achievement or performance in a career, however they are

reliable markers of class, ethnicity and education background.

Source: RGCC analysis of HESA data

Graduate recruitment practices that limit social mobility

3. Campus targeting

TOP 30 (T30) Campuses

The 30 campuses most visited by employers –

and consequently the 30 campuses polled for

the Top 100 Employers

SCHOOL

23% of all T30 students are privately educated

Versus only 7% at all other campuses

SOCIAL CLASS

67% of all T30 grads come from the top two

social classes

Compared to 52% at all other campuses

SUMMARYBy targeting your expenditure and presence on High Fliers

campuses, you are addressing a more middle class, more white and more privately educated audience.

Source: RGCC analysis of HESA data

If you’re serious about social mobility:

Drop the 2:1 bar – not a predictor of job success, it’s discriminatory and is changing campus life for the worse

Drop all reference to UCAS tariff point thresholds – not a proxy for ability, just a marker for exclusion

Drop your fixation with the Top 100 Employers – your budgets are blown on 30 campuses, 91 others are mostly ignored

Of course you won’t – and you shouldn’t

What might be done?

• Tell the truth: 300,000 graduates chase 24,000 graduate jobs

• Don’t hide the truth – it’s tough joining the elite

• De-gradify – with more ‘doors marked open’ for 16 & 18 year olds

• Better careers guidance

• A consumer-focused education system(i.e. run for the benefit of students, parents and employers, not educationalists, bureaucrats, politicians and unions)

Odd one out?

SAVE THE DATE

The next TARGETjobs Breakfast News is Thursday 28 November