social media and military suicide

NATIONAL CENTER FOR VETERANS STUDIES

Long-term, near-term, and imminent social media “signatures” of emerging suicide death among military

personnel

Craig J. Bryan, PsyD, ABPPSungchoon Sinclair, MS

AnnaBelle O. Bryan, BSPHJonathan E. Butner, PhD

National Center for Veterans Studies & The University of Utah



Background

• Previous NCVS/PERSEREC/Northrop Grumman research collaboration supports the utility of social media data to predict which military personnel will die by suicide

• In addition to knowing who will die by suicide, knowing when suicide will occur is key

• Little is known about emergent suicide risk because traditional analytic methods do not consider nonlinear change processes or model interactions among multiple changing variables over time

• Dynamical systems models may uncover previously unrecognized patterns



What is Dynamic System Theory (DST)?

• Assumes emergence; i.e., the many constituent parts interact to form complex relationships that cannot easily be deduced from the individual parts

• Emergence articulates that variability in an outcome(s) is a function of three things: stable temporal patterns, the ability to move between these stable patterns, and perturbations due to the fact that social systems are quite large and we are only examining part of the system when we choose an outcome(s) to describe it

• Depicting models where forms of change are treated as the outcome(s) are able to simultaneously depict temporal patterns and the stability of those patterns under an assumption of constant perturbations. We can then characterize the system through the set of these patterns and how/when the system moves between them, essentially mapping out emergence both descriptively and inferentially



Procedures

• Analyses were restricted to participants based on the following rules:

– Posts made by the user– Posts within 365 days of death– Posts preceding or on the date of death– Posts appearing in chronological order– Weighted difference between posts to account for varying lengths of time between posts



Data Analysis

• Multilevel actor-partner interdependence model (APIM) data structure– Separate intercepts for each of five cluster variables: trigger, cognition, emotion, physiology, behavior– Separate models run for different time frames centered at 182, 90, 30, 7, and 1 day prior to death



6 months 3 months 1 month 1 week Day of death

Suicide

Control

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Emot

Cog

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot



Simulations

The effect of change in triggers on subsequent cognition posts



Simulations

The effect of change in triggers on subsequent emotion posts




Suicide

Control

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Emot

Cog

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot



Simulations

The effect of change in cognition on subsequent emotion posts




Suicide

Control

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Emot

Cog

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot

Trigger

Phys

Beh

Cog

Emot



Simulations

The effect of change in behavior on subsequent cognition posts


Conclusion/Summary



Summary

• Results of the analysis explain an estimated 45 percent of the variance in death

• Suicides and controls show different patterns of coordination among the five domains

• “Signatures” of emerging suicide death:– Overall: Triggers driving change in emotion and cognition– Three months before suicide: Coupling of physiological domain with cognitive and emotional domains disappears– One month before suicide: Coupling of behavior with cognition emerges (increased behaviors drive less change in cognition)– One week to one day before suicide: Coupling of behavior with cognition strengthens


Case Examples



Case 839

29 12/6/2011 Chilling with my baby!!!!30 12/7/2011 Sweet dream My Baby, I love you, Always and Forever!!!!!!31 12/8/2011 My Baby just left and Im a total mess right now, I miss her so much already!!!!

32 12/9/2011 Has officially decided that I FLIPPIN’ HATE goin’ to bed and waking up with out MY Baby!!!! Slept like shit last night without her!!! Miss her so much!!!!

33 12/9/2011 I know right???

34 12/9/2011 I am an always have been my own worst enemy an possibly just fukked up the BEST thing that ever happened to me!!!!!

35 12/9/2011 P Always & Forever36 12/9/2011 Always & Forever37 12/9/2011 [link to song lyrics]38 12/9/2011 FUK IT!!!!39 12/10/2011 So do not have enough alcohol for the night 12/11/2011 Case 839 dies of self-inflicted gunshot wound


www.veterans.utah.edu@vetstudies/ Veterans Studies

Questions

Craig [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

social media and military suicide

Science