Social Inclusion, Climate Change and Decision Making for Australia’s Urban Settlements

Andrew BeerCentre for Housing, Urban and

Regional Planning

Introduction

• Impacts of climate change will affect the most vulnerable in the global population most and will affect the most vulnerable in Australia to the greatest degree

• Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (2006) estimated the cost of climate change at 5% of global GDP – Significant impacts

• Dislocation via forced migration• Greater variability and vulnerability in agricultural production• Cost of access to water

Social Inclusion and Exclusion

• Social Inclusion conceptually opposite of social exclusion – Competing definitions

• Social exclusion is a shorthand term for what can happen when people or areas suffer from a combination of linked problems such as unemployment, poor skills, low incomes, poor housing, high crime environments, bad health and family breakdowns. (socialexclusionunit.gov.uk)

• The question of social exclusion and integration, it can be argued, largely revolves around access...to decision making, access to resources, and access to common narratives, which enable social integration (Mandipour, 1998 p, 7)

– Generally refers to multiple and linked social, economic and cultural problems within an area or group

• But a contested concept (March 1998) reinforced by the programs of the EC

Social Inclusion and Exclusion

• Somerville noted three drivers of social exclusion in advanced economies: – Disadvantage in labour markets– Political/legal structures that disenfranchise some

individuals or groups from publicly provided benefits

– Exclusion as a result of predominant ideologies – eg racism, sexism, prejudice

Social Inclusion and Climate Change: How are Australia’s Settlement Affected?

Social Inclusion and Climate Change: How are Australia’s Settlement Affected?

Climate Change, Social Inclusion and Australian Settlements

• Ist order impacts of climate change– Direct impacts on the economy, events

• Cyclone Yarsi – reduced GDP by 3% • Impact of drought

– Cost of structural adjustment as some industries fail

• Australian industry often dependent on access to resources

Climate Change, Social Inclusion and Australian Settlements

• 2nd order impacts – Infrastructure failure and the need to build better

and higher quality facilities and assets

Climate Change, Social Inclusion and Australian Settlements

• 3rd order impacts– The cost of adjusting to failed industries– Climate change impacts will arrive on top of other

drivers of cchange change

Left Labour Force Unemployed/Under-employedFull time employment

Not All Settlements Will be Affected Equally

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AlburyOrangeBallaratColacEchucaSheppartonMaryboroughBurnie-SomersetDevonport

Raymond TerraceWodonga

MaitlandBacchus MarchGladstoneBunburyMandurah

Mt IsaKalgoorlie-BoulderPt HedlandMuswellbrookSingletonKarratha

WangarattaPt PirieMt GambierKurri Kurri-WestonWhyalla

GriffithMurray BridgePt LincolnMilduraBundabergGympieWarwick

DefenceMining/ PowerGeneration

HighManufacturing

Agribusiness

Higher MiningCoal Mining

Moe-YallournMorwellTraralgon

High GovernmentAdministrative

Sevices/Cultural Services

HighEducation

High Mining

Manufacturing

Mixed RegionalCentres

Regional Centres/High Government

Administrative Services

8

HighManufacturing/

Commuters

KiamaOcean Grove-Barwon Heads

BathurstDubboGoulburnGraftonTamworthWagga WaggaMackayRockhamptonToowoombaLauncestonLismoreTareeBainsdaleBendigoWarrnamboolNambour

High Services

RemoteTourism

Tourism/Leisure

Regional Centreswith Tourism

HigherGovernment

AdministrativeServices

Cessnock-BellbirdLithgow

BallinaCoffs HarbourForster-TuncurryPt MacquarieSawtellHorshamHervey BayAlbanyBusseltonGeraldton

CairnsBroome

Nowra-BomaderrySaleTownsvilleAlice SpringsBroken HillPt Augusta

Armidale

4

Community Services/High Government

AdministrativeServices

•Regional Cities by function at the 2001 Census • Smaller settlements more likely to be vulnerable •More remote settlements more vulnerable •Path dependency and ‘lock in’

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AlburyOrangeBallaratColacEchucaSheppartonMaryboroughBurnie-SomersetDevonport

Raymond TerraceWodonga

MaitlandBacchus MarchGladstoneBunburyMandurah

Mt IsaKalgoorlie-BoulderPt HedlandMuswellbrookSingletonKarratha

WangarattaPt PirieMt GambierKurri Kurri-WestonWhyalla

GriffithMurray BridgePt LincolnMilduraBundabergGympieWarwick

DefenceMining/ PowerGeneration

HighManufacturing

Agribusiness

Higher MiningCoal Mining

Moe-YallournMorwellTraralgon

High GovernmentAdministrative

Sevices/Cultural Services

HighEducation

High Mining

Manufacturing

Mixed RegionalCentres

Regional Centres/High Government

Administrative Services

8

HighManufacturing/

Commuters

KiamaOcean Grove-Barwon Heads

BathurstDubboGoulburnGraftonTamworthWagga WaggaMackayRockhamptonToowoombaLauncestonLismoreTareeBainsdaleBendigoWarrnamboolNambour

High Services

RemoteTourism

Tourism/Leisure

Regional Centreswith Tourism

HigherGovernment

AdministrativeServices

Cessnock-BellbirdLithgow

BallinaCoffs HarbourForster-TuncurryPt MacquarieSawtellHorshamHervey BayAlbanyBusseltonGeraldton

CairnsBroome

Nowra-BomaderrySaleTownsvilleAlice SpringsBroken HillPt Augusta

Armidale

4

Community Services/High Government

AdministrativeServices

Impacts will vary by location •Human Dimensions of Environmental Decision Making

• funded by the PSRF • shadows a biosciences project entitled ‘Transects for Environmental Decision Making’

Conclusion

• Anthropogenic climate change will have complex impacts on Australia’s settlement system – Shaped by location – Economic structure – Infrastructure– Decision making capacity/achievement

Conclusion

• Many living in non metropolitan Australia are already amongst the most disadvantaged Australians – Higher levels of Indigenous populations – Lower incomes – Lower educational attainment

• Further social exclusion is likely – In the labour market – the compounding impacts of restructuring

associated with climate change– Political legal structures that reduce access to government

decision making and investment – Attitudinal exclusion – the ideology of the self reliant ‘bush’ as a

barrier to action