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southasiadisasters.net June 20182

ABOUT THIS ISSUE

INTRODUCTION

Asian Early Warning Systems:A View

The Asia–Pacific region continuesto be the most disaster prone

region in the world. According tolatest UN figures, between 1970-2016disasters killed over 2 millionpeople in the region and destroyedassets worth US$ 1.3 trillion. In 2017alone, 6,543 people lost their livesresulting from over 200 disasters ofa major scale affecting 66.7 millionpeople. In fact, in the last decade, theAsia-Pacific region has accounted forhalf of the global disaster mortalityand over 80% of the total disasteraffected population.1

The enhanced vulnerability andexposure of communities in Asia-Pacific to various disaster andclimate risks makes it imperative forthe region to address the causes ofits underlying vulnerability. Earlywarning systems can go a long wayin reducing Asia's vulnerability andexposure. UNISDR defines an EarlyWarning System (EWS) as anintegrated system of hazardmonitoring, forecasting andprediction, disaster risk assessment,communication and preparednessactivities systems and processes thatenables individuals, communities,governments, businesses and othersto take timely action to reducedisaster risks in advance ofhazardous events.

Given the uniqueness of the Asianexperience with disasters, it becomesimportant to evolve EWS that arerooted in the region's socio-economic realities. There are somevery interesting questions that arisefrom this position. Firstly, the Asia-

Early warning has beenrecognized as an effective

approach for reducing disasterrisk and the loss of life. At theinstitutional level, there has beena paradigm shift from singlehazard to multi-hazard earlywarning and from providinghazard information to providingrisk and impact information.Acknowledging the importanceof early warning in reducingdisaster risk, the SendaiFramework's Target 7 calls tosubstantially increase theavailability of, and access to,multi-hazard early warningsystems and disaster riskinformation and assessments tothe people.

This issue of Southasiadisasters.netis titled "Early Warning Systems"and highlights the importance ofsuch systems in helping tominimize the detrimental impactof disasters on communities andassets. The effectiveness of suchsystems depends upon the activeinvolvement of at-riskcommunities, facilitation of riskawareness and dissemination ofalerts and warnings to ensure aconstant state of preparedness.

This issue highlights the variousaspects of early warning systemsin India and South Asia such asleveraging social media for earlywarning, early warning in hillyregions, community participationin early warning, etc. This issuealso highlights how there aregaps in effective implementationof people-centred, multi-hazardwarning systems and what can bedone to seamlessly integrate riskknowledge and impactinformation into such earlywarning mechanisms.

– Kshitij Gupta

Pacific region needs an acceleratedevolution of EWS to catch up withthe rest of the developed world.Asian countries like China, Japanand India have made considerableprogress in evolving EWStechnology through advances insatellite imagery. Secondly andmore importantly, we should notview EWS in a separate silo ofcomplex and quantitative weathermodels and simulations. Instead,EWS should be viewed as a muchlarger and holistic platform that notonly provides opportunities toconvey early warning to at- riskcommunities but also enables thesecommunities to prepare themselvesagainst multiple hazards byenhancing their response capacities.

As the leaders of the various Asiancountries congregate in Ulaanbaatarfor the upcoming Asian MinisterialConference on Disaster RiskReduction (AMCDRR), theimportance of EWS for the regionshould be highlighted. Communitybased EWS for relaying informationto floods in remote and high altitudeareas is also a uniquely Asianinnovation that should be scaled upand replicated in other areas as well.Most importantly, EWS in Asia-pacific region will not only protectthe robust economic growthexperienced by the region in therecent decades, but will also help inthe effective resolution of severaltrans-boundary DRR issues byimproving regional collaborationamong the various countries of thisregion.

– Mihir R. Bhatt

1 The International Disaster Database, https://www.emdat.be/.

southasiadisasters.netJune 2018 3

REGIONAL COOPERATION ON EWS

Regional Collaboration for better Flood EarlyWarning and Resilience in India

India is increasingly threatened byfloods, and its resilience depends

on successful trans-boundary earlywarning systems. During a nationalworkshop, organized by PracticalAction, key stakeholders cametogether from across the region todiscuss how a successful flood earlywarning system could be designedand implemented. Here they sharetheir insights and actions for thefuture:

India's Vulnerability to FloodsAccording to the United NationsGlobal Assessment Report onDisaster Risk Reduction 2015, India'saverage annual economic loss dueto disasters is estimated to beUS $ 9.8 billion. This includes morethan US$ 7 billion loss on account offloods. The country also plans toinvest US$ 3 trillion on infrastructureprojects, in next five to ten years.Thus, the country will need to makesubstantial efforts to ensure thatthese investments are sustainable. InIndia, the devastation caused onaccount of the floods in riversflowing from the Himalayas, issubstantial and this would need tobe adequately factored into ourefforts in disaster risk reduction,especially through early warningsystems.

Poor Regional CooperationThe regional cooperation across thecountries of the region, primarilyIndia, Nepal and Bangladesh, onriverine floods across South Asia isa major concern that meritsimmediate attention. Often thedestruction from floods happens dueto the inability to obtain timelyinformation from the variousinstitutions that are designed togenerate, analyse, disseminate andcommunicate the information to a

range of stakeholders at differentlevels on a trans-boundary basis.Often the government togovernment interfaces happen in aformal and straight jacketed manner,providing limited scope, space andopportunities to communities toexpress their needs, demands andconcerns, especially on matterswhich govern their lives.

Regional Workshop for a Better EarlyWarning SystemBuilding on years of experienceworking in Disaster Risk Reductionin South Asia, Practical Action Indiatook a decision to organise a day-long national workshop on EarlyWarning Systems and FloodResilience in New Delhi on 27thApril 2018. The event was organisedin partnership with InternationalWater Management Institute,Christian Aid, Oxfam and the SpecialCentre of Disaster Research JNU andNational Institute of DisasterManagement, New Delhi.

The purpose of this workshop wasto hold an interactive discussion

where policy makers, thinkers,practitioners, researchers and otherstakeholders could come togetherand discuss the importance, potentialimpacts and feasibility of aneffective and functional earlywarning system for floods andanalyse how the community couldbe meaningfully engaged in theseefforts, in the context of newtechnologies and changing climate.

The participants at the eventexplored key gaps among thedifferent institutions working inflood risk reduction. They alsodiscussed planning strategies, newinnovative procedures for operationand management, capital/infrastructure improvements,innovations in forecastingmethodologies, communication/dissemination challenges and theneed for regional collaboration toachieve flood resilience.

By sharing case studies ofcommunity-based early warningsystems in Nepal and India theworkshop also helped the

Building on years of experience working in Disaster Risk Reduction in SouthAsia, Practical Action India took a decision to organise a day-long nationalworkshop on Early Warning Systems and Flood Resilience in EWS Workshop,JNU on April 27, 2018 at New Delhi.


participants to gather a better andmore nuanced understanding of howan effective early warning systemcould be designed and implemented.Including operational, structural andpolicy-support requirements, and itseventual impact on communityresilience.

What's next?The needs and demands forappropriate institutionalarrangements and facilitatingprotocols for regional coordinationand cooperation among theGovernment/Non-GovernmentInstitutions were identified as highpriority area of work to follow up.This workshop was the first steptoward the collaborative approach todeal with floods and this needs tobe followed up by inclusion of allrelevant stakeholders who areresponsible to generate anddisseminate early warnings. Theinvolvement of all stakeholders andother players, who are directly andindirectly involved in the flooddisaster management programmeswas considered essential.

The highlighted outcomes of theworkshop included a cohesiveunderstanding of the variousdimensions of early warning systemand agreeing to initiate a proposalfor organizing a regional levellearning platform to advocate theinstitutional collaboration amongdifferent government and civilsociety organizations to work onEWS and Flood Resilience. Theparticipating agencies also agreed todefine an annual plan of action toadvocate the cause of EWS and FloodResilience and initiate the interactionwith the state level disastermanagement authorities/disastermanagement departments especiallyin the two states of Northern Indiaof Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Otherimportant outcomes were tostrengthen the network of datacollection mechanisms, aimed ataccurate monitoring and effectiveforecasts. Other follow up actionsinclude:• To collaborate with SAARC

(South Asian Association forRegional Cooperation) for

better flood information sharingwith neighboring countries.

• Free flow of communicationacross borders should bestreamlined.

• To develop more space basedadvance technologies forshifting from forecasting tonow-casting.

• To build capacities of thecommunities to understand theimplications of now-casting.

• To democratize the EWS forbridging the gap betweentechnical departments andcommunities.

• Community based earlywarning system is possible withregional cooperation andcollaboration.

• There should preferably be asingle instrument of risktransfer mechanism rather thanmultiple ones as available now.

• Raising the communityawareness of crop insurancescheme offered by thegovernment.

– Mihir R. Bhatt

BREAKTHROUGHS IN EARLY WARNING

Reducing the Fear of Getting Isolated during DisasterInnovative solution by Oxfam India to ensure active participation ofwomen in EWS for flood

While most of us wait withbated breath for monsoon

and rains, in flood-prone areas theapproaching season makes peopleanxious and nervous about theirfuture. The fear of being isolatedduring the advent of disaster terrifiesthe poor and marginalized families,no information or warning about theapproaching disaster further makesthem vulnerable.

Early warning information can savelives, prepare communities andreduce the impact of the disaster. Itis important to include women inestablishing an early warning

process as they are active andresourceful disaster responders.Evidence shows that their seclusionfrom early warning informationincreases the vulnerability ofcommunities and families. TheSendai Framework for Disaster RiskReduction (SFDRR) also clearlytargets a substantial increase in theavailability and access to multi-hazard early warning systems anddisaster risk information to thepeople at the community level.

Oxfam India implements all the DRRinterventions with a focus on theactive participation of women at all

levels of planning andimplementation. Task Force Groupsare formed and nurtured atcommunity level to spearheadactivities like Early Warning, Rescue,Water, Sanitation & Hygiene(WASH) and others. Women play avery crucial role in all these activitiesand their participation is ensured forall groups.

Our experience from the fieldsuggests that the active participationof women in the Early WarningGroup always acts as the keycontributor towards ensuringefficient EWS and disaster resilience


Oxfam India's flood response in Assam in 2017.

of the community. This is not onlybecause of the fact that women takeproactive steps to collect anddisseminate Early Warninginformation, but also because of thefact that the women remain presentat the community level while themen folk migrate outside the villagefor work which renders theirparticipation in EWS highlyirregular.

In order to enhance the effectivenessof the community based EWS byusing the updated technology,Oxfam India has taken an initiativein Odisha by establishing aVolunteer Network ManagementSystem (VNMS). The objective is tocreate a platform and introduce asystem that works very effectivelyto collect accurate information fromreliable sources and disseminate thesame among the communitymembers on a real time basis.

Local NGOs, CBOs and the womenfrom Self Help Groups (SHGs) are

the member of this network ofvolunteers. The presence of womenmembers in the volunteer networkin the disaster- prone areas help incontinuation of work related to EWSas they receive training to managethe related works.

The information regarding EarlyWarning is collected from thereliable sources, mostly thegovernment departments dealingwith disaster. In order to ensure realtime dissemination, a technologyenabled mobile Application isdeveloped. The Early Warningmessages are communicated throughthe mobile messages in vernacularlanguage. This ensures that thevolunteers who are fromcommunities receive accurateinformation on real time basis.Accordingly, they communicate theEarly Warning among thecommunity members.

The VNMS is a manifestation of thebelief that ensuring access to control

of information by women during adisaster situation can bringdiscernible changes in the form ofreduction of loss of life andlivelihoods for the poor andmarginalized communities.

"Since our village is isolated and notwell-connected with the grampanchayat, we have always lived ina constant fear that warning of floodwill not reach us on time. Duringthe 2013 floods, we faced huge lossof life and livelihood. With theVNMS in place, we now receiveregular and accurate informationregarding flood. This helped us tospend peaceful life even during rainyseason, which was not possibleearlier," said Padmavati Behra, amember of VNMS fromChandnamkhana village inOdisha.

– Amitabh Behar,CEO, Oxfam India, and

Andrio Naskar,Manager, India Humanitarian

Programme, Oxfam India,Kolkata, West Bengal, India


LEVERAGING SOCIAL MEDIA

Twitters and Early Warning Systems: Limitsand Potential for India

Online social media (OSM) hasbecome a popular platform for

people to share information ondiverse topics. Twitter, a micro-blogging service, has been widelyused as an informationdissemination agent, particularlyduring crisis situations such asearthquakes, floods, hurricanes orpolitical conflicts (Wang andZhuang, 2017). Twitter enables itsusers to share text and/ormultimedia content directly from thelocation where the incident has takenplace, thereby allowing commonpeople to serve as news reporters.Due to this, it has become a commontrend to see event updates to beavailable on social media first andthen introduced in the mainstreammedia thereafter. Continuous effortsare being made to use Twitter as aneffective communication channelduring crises and for this purpose,Twitter started a new service calledTwitter alerts, designed to prioritizeinformation from credibleorganizations during crises whenother communication channels arenot accessible.

In South Asia, the potential ofTwitter to serve as a disasterresponse agent was first realized

during the Kashmir floods of 2014,when citizen groups organizedthemselves entirely on Twitter toprovide assistance to agencies on theground. During this extreme event,a Twitter hashtag "# JK Flood Relief"was recognized as a ground-breaking effort that usedcrowdsourced information forraising awareness as well as gettingpeople and corporations to donaterelief materials. Twitter played avital role to ensure connectivityamong people during the 2015Chennai flood when the entire citywas suffering from power cutslasting from two to five days. Ithelped local people to getinformation about how to commutefrom one place to another based onwhich roads the water had receded.National Disaster ManagementAuthority (NDMA), an Indiangovernment organization, has beenleveraging the use of Twitter tomake India a disaster risk resilientcountry. During the Mangalurufloods of 2018, NDMA used Twitterto gather information about thedamage caused in the affected areasand create awareness among thecitizens by employing Twitter as adisaster early warning system.

Despite the advantages of Twitter asa disaster management tool, it hasalso been criticized for spreadingrumors and misinformation duringcrises. Twitter users could respondto rumor information by spreadingit, doubting it, or seekingconfirmation provided that they areinvolved in that particular topic ofrumor through their posting oftweets. A recent study by Wang andZhuang (2018) found that most ofthese misinformed Twitter userstend to spread the rumorinformation, indicating the poorrumor detection ability of Twitterusers. The response behaviour ofrumor spreading users is a majortopic of discussion since it has beenfound that during crisis situations, amajority of these users did notrespond effectively to prevent thespread of their rumors after theywere debunked. However, thedebunking process of rumors in itselfwas significantly fast duringdisasters, thereby playing a majorrole in preventing large-scale panicsand economic loss. Hence, in India,people can take the advantage ofTwitter as a disaster early warningsystem during extreme events; butat the same time they must becautious and take proper steps tominimize the spread ofmisinformation. – Puneet Agarwal, and Jun Zhuang,Department of Industrial and Systems

Engineering University, Buffalo,New York, USA

References:1. Wang, B., & Zhuang, J. (2017).

Crisis information distribution onTwitter: a content analysis oftweets during Hurricane Sandy.Natural Hazards, 89(1), 161-181.

2. Wang, B., & Zhuang, J. (2018).Rumor response, debunkingresponse, and decision makingsof misinformed Twitter usersduring disasters. NaturalHazards, 1-18, published online.

Twitter as a disaster response agent.


DRR IN HILLY REGIONS

Early Warning for Floods in South Asia

South Asia is highly vulnerable toextreme weather events and

natural hazards such as floods,landslides, earthquakes, avalanches,droughts, thunderstorms, extremetemperatures and cyclone. Between1980 and 2015 a total of 1289 disasterevents have been recorded affectingmore than 2 billion people in theregion. Floods and landslides are themost frequently occurring naturalhazards, particularly during themonsoon season and account fornearly half of the events recorded inthe countries of South Asia. In recentyears, increasingly erratic andunpredictable monsoon rainfallpatterns and increased climatevariability have led to severe andfrequent flood disasters in theregion.

The floods have resulted in loss oflives and livelihoods, agriculturalproductivity, and hydropowerproduction, among others as well asin the displacement of millions ofpeople, threatening achievement ofthe United Nations SustainableDevelopment Goals. Between 1980and 2015 the social and economiccosts of floods have been almost84,000 people dead and US$ 88billion in damages. The 2017 floodsacross South Asia killed more than1000 people and affected almost 45million people in the region. Oftenthere is differential impacts of suchdisasters killing more women,children, elderly and physically-challenged people who are typicallymore vulnerable to the adverseeffects of floods.

The transboundary scale of suchdisasters calls for effectivecooperation between the countries

sharing the Indus, Ganges andBrahmaputra basins: Bangladesh,Bhutan, China, Nepal, India andPakistan. The existing bilateral rivertreaties and data sharing agreementsare not sufficient to avert floodcatastrophes of such transboundaryscale. Thus, investments in earlywarning systems with sharing oftimely data and information, stronginstitutional mechanism, effectiverisk communication and educationand awareness of the communitiescan be critical in saving lives andassets and strengthening theresilience of vulnerablecommunities.

More systematic regionalcooperation in hydro meteorologicaldata collection and sharing isnecessary, to enable effective andtimely forecasting of floods anddisaster prevention as well as floodmanagement at the regional level.In 2010, the International Centre forIntegrated Mountain Development(ICIMOD), the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO)and ICIMOD's partner countriesBangladesh, Bhutan, China, India,Nepal and Pakistan initiated thedevelopment of the Hindu KushHimalayan Hydrological CycleObserving System (HKH-HYCOS).The project's overall objective is tominimize the loss of human livesand property damage. The projecthelped build the capacity of thepartner countries' national hydrometservices and modernized thehydromet networks in the region: atotal of 38 hydromet stations (9 inBangladesh, 9 in Bhutan, 12 in Nepaland 8 in Pakistan) were upgraded toshare real-time data. A regionalflood information system was

established to facilitate thetransboundary exchange of real-timedata and know-how. Theinformation system allows thevisualization and extrapolation ofreal-time data from the stations toany geographical location byproviding information on the river-water levels and amounts of rainfall.

The data transmitted in real-timealong with global datasets are usedto develop flood outlook productsand to validate model results, suchas in satellite-derived products.These products are used by partnersto forewarn communities ofincreasing river-water levels, helpingreduce risks. In August 2014 and2017, for example, the flood outlookwas used by Nepal's Department ofHydrology and Meteorology alongwith other forecasts to issue floodadvisories. It did so by means offlood bulletins which were widelydisseminated through its websiteand shared with the NationalEmergency Operation Centre andtargeted recipients to enable timelyflood warning.

The hydromet services ofBangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal andPakistan have since been able toattract sizeable investments for themodernization of their hydrometnetworks. Activities funded throughHKH-HYCOS have improved thecapacity of the hydromet services totake up these projects, andcontributed to building climateresilience for people at risk.

– Mandira Singh Shrestha, Programme Coordinator: Hi–RISK,

International Centre for IntegratedMountain Development (ICIMOD),

Kathmandu, Nepal


1 The argument is confirmed in the UNISDR report on EWS structure of disaster management in India https://www.unisdr.org/2005/mdgs-drr/national-reports/India-report.pdf, where institutions of sciences such as IMD DopplerRadar wind profiler.

2 See 'Disaster Law: The Emerging Thresholds'(Routledge 2017) by Amita Singh.

LOCAL LEVEL EWS

Early Warning System (EWS) and CommunityResilience to Floods

The Disaster Management Act2005 has strongly mentioned the

need for an early warning system.The Hyogo Framework for Actionand subsequently the Sendaiframework referred to it as anindispensable tool to save livesduring disasters. Notwithstandingthe recognized importance of EWS,the approach remained fragmented,adhoc and withdrawn fromcommunities and local needs1. Overthe years EWS has acquired a newmeaning. It has shifted from theexisting isolated, fragmented andtechno-centric science to a betterintegrated science suitable forposterity to benefit from.

Every warning system has toencompass three stages ofoperations involving differentgovernment organizations i.e;Detection and Warning,Communication and Response.The first involves the scienceinstitutions exclusively andreflects upon the capacity ofcountry's satellite and remotesensing agencies, last stagereflects upon the localgovernment capacities to workwith people and manageefficient administration. Themiddle stage is a platform forintensive partnership andsharing amongst disconnectedorganizations such as thescience institutions, districtadministration, NDMA/SDMAs/DDMAs/universities/schools/NGOs and local groupsof people. It is the second and

the last stage which fails EWS inIndia despite the most sophisticatedsuperstructure of science erected onthe DMA 2005 design. This has ledto an inconsistent, incomplete anddiluted EWS system in India.

The key institution for EWS in Indiais the Indian MeteorologicalDepartment (IMD) which hadinitially worked on a two stageEWS. Gradually much improvementhas taken place and more stageshave been introduced in the 'Pre-Cyclone watch' and the 'post-landfallScenario'. As the stages are added thegovernance of EWS becomes easier

to manage and coordinate withdistrict administration and thedisaster management CrisisManagers. Once detection takes placea bulletin is issued by the IMD for aCyclone-Alert. This may be from 48hrs or less but enough to evacuatehumans and nonhumans to saferplaces. Much advancement has alsotaken place in science on the AircraftMeteorological Data Relay system,the Cloud Motion Vectors (CMVs)and the Very High ResolutionRadiometer (VHRR) payload onboard INSAT-2E to provide watervapor channel data in addition to VIS& IR on-board. A separate payload

known as Charged CoupleDevice (CCD) has also beendeployed on board this satellite.The concern for the universityresearch is to explore theinvestment, capacityenhancement and itsproportional benefits in pushingthe disaster managementstructure to act in time. Thisdraws further to connect to manyethical, social and legal issueswhich are embedded inaccountability, transparency andefficiency of NDMA relatedstructures of operations at thecommunity levels2.

Forecasting for floods, flashfloods, fire, stampede,earthquakes and any othergeospatial disaster involvesdifferent compartments whichare interconnected yet separatein operations, equipment andrescue designs. When theEWS at Odisha meteorological station.


REGIONAL COOPERATION ON EARLY WARNING

Planning Early Flood Warning Across India,Nepal and Bangladesh Rivers: A View

ContextIt is an established fact that floods

occurred more than any other the otherdisaster from 2000 to 2017. The data fromCRED (Centre for Research on theEpidemiology of Disasters) on the basisof four countries India, Nepal, Bangladeshand Myanmar authenticates thisstatement.

Furthermore, among three countriesof South Asia, viz. India, Bangladeshand Nepal all the disasters happen

either due to the floods or storms inthe aforementioned period. InBangladesh around 29% was affectedby the floods, where as in India 55%affected by the floods whereas inNepal 49% were affected by thefloods1. It is quite evident thatflooding has had a major impact oncommunities across South Asia.

One of the important aspects offlooding in South Asia is the trans-boundary nature of floods that

mostly generates from theHimalayan mountain range. It iswidely known that recurringcatastrophes/ floods in trans-borderriver basins of the Ganga and theBrahmaputra cause extensivedamages to the lives, livelihoods andproperties of the communities at-riskand increase their vulnerability toexternal shocks. Total reporteddamages were US$ 352,000, just 0.1%of the losses estimated by MunichRe to be US$ 3.5 billion. Of this,

Table-1.: No of event from 2000–2017.

scientific flood forecasting wasinitiated by the Central WaterCommission (then known as CentralWater & Power Commission) inNovember, 1958, a FloodForecasting Centre was set up at itsHeadquarters in Delhi. The networkhas since expanded to cover all themajor flood prone inter-State riverbasins in the country.

The international partners fromNepal, (ICIMOD) discussed theregional flood information systemin the Hindu Kush Himalayanregion (HKH-HYCOS) which isadapted to the World MeteorologicalOrganization's (WMO) model ofWorld hydrological Cycle ObservingSystem (WHYCOS). The HKH region

also concerned the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and the Indusriver basins. However, the expertsagreed that there is no reliability ofdata as research documentation inlinkage to communities and theirresponses has yet to be undertakenin India. This also weakens resilienceefforts such as insurance schemes,Index Based data and effectivecompensation to victims.

The workshop highlighted the needfor research, data and emphasis onthe ethics towards duty andresponsibility to mankind and allliving creatures. The coming ofdrones make identification easier butit the administrator on the other sidewho may or may not decide to

record more vulnerablecommunities such as women,elderly, children, disabled andsocially ostracized.

In conclusion, the EWS invitesattention of NDMA's structure ofdisaster governance and universityand academic institutions forgenerating a data bank ofcomparative socio-legal andeconomic vulnerabilities ofcommunities as well as theadministrative and science basedsystems. – Dr. Amita Singh, Professor of Law

& Governance, Chairperson,Special Centre for Disaster

Research, Jawaharlal NehruUniversity (JNU), New Delhi,

India


1 Decoding the monsoon flood in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Nepal, report by CRED2 ibid

some US$ 350 million in occurred inBangladesh, US$ 2.5 billion in Indiaand US$ 600 million in Nepal2.

While understanding the nature ofthe problem, the Sendai Frameworkfor Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 has outlined the regional andglobal coordination mechanisms foreffective flood recovery andmitigation. Early Warning Systems(EWS) was recognized as a keycomponent for DRR at variouslevels. Further the Asian MinisterialConference on DRR (AMCDRR) heldin New Delhi in November 2016 hasemphasized the need for promotingcooperation, collaboration andcoordination among the nations foran effective Trans Border Flood EarlyWarning System.

Early Warning SystemThough flood mitigation process isa complex web of systems thatrequires coordination, planning andmanagement at several levels fromcentre to the state, an effectiveapplication of early warningmeasures on most of the transboundary rivers can reduce theimpact of loss and damagecommunities are suffering over theyears.

The Early warning systems, alongwith other information servicesbased on weather, water and climatedata play a key role in disasterpreparedness and improving theproductivity and performance ofclimate sensitive sectors such asagriculture. Along with investmentsin resilient infrastructure, riskfinancing strategies and capacitybuilding measures, they are a keypart of a toolkit for strengtheningdisaster and climate resilience.

Need of Regional ApproachThe bilateral river treaties and datasharing agreements currently in

place are not sufficient to avert andadapt to flood catastrophes on atrans-border scale. Most of thenational government thoughmaintain the government togovernment level interaction andtends to exchange informationregarding floods and other naturaldisasters on an ad-hoc basis.However, the institutionalinteraction between the countries arestraightjacketed in nature andcountries bounded by the bilateraltreaties, hindered the informationsharing process with third countries.It is clear that because of the regionalnature of floods regionalinterdependencies between countriesin terms of weather and climate isbound to happen.

The current water sharing agreementis limited to the Ganges River. Anagreement on the Tista/TeestaRiver, a tributary to theBrahmaputra, has been discussed formany years but has not been signed.The cause and effect of weatherpattern mostly being generated bymonsoonal rains also requirescomprehensive regional planningand effective coordination amongSouth Asian countries. Whilesignificant progress has beenachieved in strengthening regionalearly warning systems for tsunamisand tropical cyclones, especiallysince the 2004 Indian OceanTsunami, critical gaps exist for otherhazards, despite the technologybeing largely available. Specifically,countries in Asia/South Asia. In the

present situation the regionalinstitutional agreements between theSouth Asian countries areinadequately addressed. The SAARCforum which is the largest policymaking body at South Asian level isnot functioning optimum due todifferent geo-political anddiplomatic exigencies of the region.

Involvement of Community and WaterDiplomacyAn involvement from thecommunity across the border isrequired for effectiveimplementation of early warningmeasures. This can be done througheither formulating regionalinstitutions with a mandate forcommunity involvement or bypromotion of track II waterdiplomacy by having river basindialogue on annual basis ensuringthe participation of most of therelevant stakeholders

Governance FrameworkRegular government to governmentinteraction in terms of developingdisaster management strategyshould be priority action. The firstlevel of interaction should happenwithin the country among thedifferent organizations working inthe space of flood mitigation.

Updating of existing disastermanagement strategies and actionplans is required to empower theflood victim trans-bordercommunity for better operationthrough CEWS. Persuasion isrequired to develop bilateral andmultilateral agreements that supporthydro-meteorological data sharingbetween countries and basin scaleflood forecasting in all trans-borderrivers.

– Rajeev Jha, DRR Specialist, andSwati Chhibber, Partnership

Development Manager, PracticalAction, New Delhi, India

Along with investments inresilient infrastructure, riskfinancing strategies and capacitybuilding measures, they are akey part of a toolkit forstrengthening disaster andclimate resilience.


COMMUNITY BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Role of EWS on Floods: A View from Bihar

An Early Warning System (EWS)can be defined as a chain of

information communication systemsand which comprises of sensors,event detection, and decisionsubsystems. They work together toforecast and signal disturbances thatadversely affect the stability of thephysical world, providing time forthe response system to prepare forthe adverse event and to minimizeits impact.

What is the relevance of EWSs?EWSs prevent loss of life and reducethe economic and materialisticimpact of disasters. To be effective,

early warning systems need toactively involve communities atrisk, facilitate public education andawareness for risk, effectivelydisseminate alerts, and warningsand ensure a constant state ofpreparedness. A complete andeffective early warning systemsupports four main functions: Riskanalysis, Monitoring and Warning;Dissemination and Communication;and a Response Capability.

Special issues attached to itsRelevanceIt is widely known and accepted thatdisasters affect women and men

differently. The United NationsHandbook for Estimating theSocioeconomic and EnvironmentalEffects of Disaster (2003) emphasizesthat one consequence of disaster "isthe decapitalization of women andthe reduction of their share ofproductive activities in the formaland informal sectors."

WHO research says that women andchildren are particularly affected bydisasters, accounting for more thanseventy-five percent of displacedpersons. In addition to the generaleffects of natural disaster and lackof health care, women arevulnerable to reproductive andsexual health problems, andincreased rates of sexual anddomestic violence. Moreover,gender roles dictate that womenbecome the primary caretakers forthose affected by disasters -including children, the injured andsick, and the elderly - substantiallyincreasing their emotional andmaterial work load. Women'svulnerability is further increased bythe loss of men and/or livelihoods,especially when a male head of thehousehold has died and womenmust provide for their families.

(Similar to its general relevance, EWSdefinitely helps women and allowsabsolute awareness for preparedness)

Vulnerability? Talk of Floods?Major Show for EWS: CBFEWS

Specialised Zone: Hindu KushHimalaya (HKH)The border between India and Nepalin Sitamarhi District of Bihar isgenerally characterized as a flat,flood prone, and partiallywaterlogged area. Light to heavy

Knock. Knock. "Who's there?" "Disaster"

I prefer not to open the door, if disaster knocks it. Even though I know that it will knock it down and enter, at least I'll be prepared.


rainfall in the Churia Hills of Nepalcan cause flash floods that affect thiszone. Flash floods have an impacton the Ratu river in the Sursandblock of Sitamarhi every year. Theserapid and intense flash floods causehuge losses of life and livelihood.Local people are aware of traditionalearly warning and preparednessmethods that pertain to recurrentflood risks. However, they areunable to receive appropriate andtimely information to minimizecasualties and loss.

To address the challenges of flashfloods, the International Centre forIntegrated Mountain Development(ICIMOD), in partnership withYuganter, is supporting theimplementation of Bihar's roadmapon Disaster Risk Reduction, led bythe Disaster ManagementDepartment of the Government ofBihar through a pilot project onCommunity-Based Flood EarlyWarning System (CBFEWS).

What is CBFEWS, Exactly? And whatare its Features?A Community-Based Flood EarlyWarning System (CBFEWS) is anintegrated system of tools and plansto flood emergencies prepared andmanaged by communities. Theobjectives are to manage flood orflash flood risk by providing earlywarning to downstreamcommunities and to enhancecooperation between upstream anddownstream communities in thesharing of flood information.CBFEWS is implemented incommunities under flood risk toenhance the capacity of local peopleto withstand the adverse effects offloods or flash floods. A properlydesigned and implemented systemcan save lives and property byproviding time for downstreamcommunities to prepare and respondto the threat of floods.

Features of CBFEWS• Implemented in tributaries and

flashy rivers.

• Upstream-downstream linkages• Provides almost real-time

information.• Low-cost technology.

How does it work?To be more accurate, this system isinstalled on the river tributaries,which has a high flooding risk,making the downstreamcommunities extremely vulnerable.The upstream community generatesthe flood information using asimple low cost instrument anddisseminates the real time earlywarning to the downstreamcommunities providing sufficientlead time for preparedness. Thesystem consists of a transmitter unit(which is placed on the river at apoint where level reaches during theflood) and a receiver unit placed atthe house of the nearest village. Thehouse owner is known as thecaretaker. He monitors the unit anddisseminates the informationreceived from the instrument to thedownstream community, localgovernment, line department andother stakeholders through mobileaccess.

Key Elements of CBFEWS1. Risk Knowledge and Scoping–

Systematically collect data andundertake scoping risk assessments.

2. Community Based Monitoringand Early Warning – Upstreamcommunities to install earlywarning instrument and monitorfloods.

3. Dissemination andCommunication – Upstreamcommunities to communicate floodinformation and provide earlywarning to downstreamcommunities.

4. Response Capability andResilience – Enhance communityresponse capabilities and buildresilience.

Talk of its Impacts and SuccessStories!A special mention of social impacton community is needed here. This

system had helped the communitypeople in responding to thealarming situation in a much easierway, than before.

People of all ages, irrespective ofany differences, have been providedwith basic necessities, as perrequirement.

Exempli Gratia (for the Sake ofexample)• Rani Jha is an Anganwadi

worker of AWC-138. She hasbeen working in SrikhandiBittha panchayat in Sursandblock of Sitamarhi district andfinds the EWS very useful. Shediscussed that before theestablishment of the system,members of the community hadno source of estimation for flashfloods and so they had to faceacute problems in theevacuation and preparation ofthe same. This situation had alsoled to large scale destruction ofeverything that came to its way.Sometimes it was socatastrophic that it led to asevere number of casualties. Shealso stated that in herremembrance, in that year(when this interview was taken)they got timely information andpeople took shelter at saferplaces. Hence, there was no loss,either in terms of lives or ofproperty.

• Bhagsheela Devi is an ASHAworker of Srikhandi Bittha East.She narrated that she receivedthe news about the flood fourhours prior to it, because of theEWS. As a result, she was ableto take all the pregnant womento a nearby school, so as toensure their safety during thefloods and made sure that themedical assistance was easilyaccessible to them.

– Sanjay Pandey,Executive Director, and

Salony Vyas,Intern, Yuganter, Bihar, India


Inundation of Srinagar City - Areal View, 10th September 2014.Source: National Remote Sensing, Department of Ecology, Environment and Remote Sensing, Government of Jammu & Kashmir.

EARLY WARNING AND URBAN RESILIENCE

Community Perception Changes for DisasterRisk Reduction Management after SrinagarFloods–2014

The frequency and severity ofweather- and climate-related

hazards has increased due to humanactivities, exposing more people anda greater value of assets to disasters.These extreme weather events haveimpacted both natural and humansystems. (STERN, 2006; IPCC, 2007c).Sendai Framework of Action, hasrightly endorsed Disaster risk-reduction management (DRM)through community resiliencemeasures, as a key to reduce thedisaster related affects.Mainstreaming disaster risk-reduction management within thepolicies and programmes ofdifferent sectors ensures that theeffects of disasters are minimized andpeople are made resilient for

improved coping capacities to attainresettlement at the earliest.

The state of Jammu & Kashmirexperienced the worst floods in thepast 60 years, during first week ofSeptember 2014, due tounprecedented and intense rains."The synchronization of movementof westerly winds in the extremenorth, with the passage of monsoondisturbances in the lower latitudescaused heavy to very heavy rainfallalong the foothills of the Himalayas,and adjoining areas of Jammu &Kashmir" (KAMALJIT RAY et.al,2015). A total of 1.16 million peopleout of 1.27 million people ofSrinagar Urban Agglomeration wereaffected by the September 2014floods. (NRSC-ISRO, 2014, p54).

A survey was conducted, to examinethe changes in the perceptions,towards Disaster Risk ReductionManagement in terms of adoptingprotective measures, preparednessand disaster risk reductionawareness after Srinagar 2014 floods.A total of 125 households affectedby the Srinagar floods, wererandomly selected for the surveyfrom 4 severely affected areas ofSrinagar city in May-June 2016. Theresults from the survey depictscomparisons of the perceptionbefore the September 2014 floodsand after the floods in May-June2016. (Refer Table No. 1).

The results depict that the Statemachinery has been created forensuring a conducive atmosphere of


implementing rules and regulationsespecially, zero tolerance towardsillegal encroachments in the riverchannels. The community has beensufficiently informed about rules andregulations of not encroaching riverchannels and flood channels. Evencivil society organizations andindividuals have better perceptionof disaster-risk reduction methods.They have observed significantimprovement in the strategies beingadopted towards disaster riskreduction, protective andpreparedness measures. Steps likede-silting, dredging, maintenance ofbund walls, clearance of riverchannels have been taken effectivelyby government agencies. However,

awareness generation measures likesafety audits, implementation ofbuilding codes and development ofemergency resettlement centres arenot being looked into. Althoughearly warning system equipmenthave been installed but people arenot aware as to how such warningwill be communicated and whatmeasures are required during thewarning period. More mock drillsand adequate capacity building ofcommunity, individuals and otherstakeholders need to beundertaken.

– Bupinder Zutshi Professor, Centre for the Study of

Regional DevelopmentJawaharlal Nehru University,

New Delhi, India

References:1. Kamaljit Ray*, S. C. Bhan and B.

K. Bandopadhyay, 2015, Thecatastrophe over Jammu andKashmir in September 2014: aMeteorological observationalanalysis, CURRENT SCIENCE,VOL. 109, NO. 580 3

2. NRSC, ISRO and Department ofEcology, Environment and RemoteSensing, Government of Jammu &Kashmir, A SATELLITE BASEDRAPID ASSESSMENT ONFLOODS IN JAMMU &KASHMIR – SEPTEMBER, 2014,Table No.6, pp54.

3. Stern, N. (2006). The economics ofclimate change: The Stern Review.New York: Cambridge UniversityPress.

Table No. 1Surveyed Respondents in Srinagar City

Perception of Preparedness of Disaster Risk Reduction Management (Percentage)

Source: Field Survey by Research Team March - May 2016.

Indicator Before DuringSeptember 2014 May–June 2016

Percentage PercentageInstalled Early Warning System No (100) No (60)Appropriate Awareness created about flood eventually by Government Yes (5) Yes (40)Awareness about flood eventually by Civil Society/ NGOS Yes (10) Yes (80)Awareness through mock drills by Government No (100) Yes (25)Knowledge of Rules and Regulations in place like not to construct Yes (10) Yes (75)around river channels/ flood channelsImplementation status of such rules No (100) No (60)Knowledge of de-silting and drudging activities of government for river No (100) No (30)channels/ flood spill channelsImplementation of de-silting and drudging activities of government for No (100) No (30)river channels/ flood spill channelsImplementation of rules and regulations for the removal of unauthorized No (100) No (40)and illegal constructions around river channels/ flood channelsAny knowledge of any safety audits in place by government to avoid No (100) No (90)flooding in the flood prone areasObserved or have knowledge of steps taken by government to No (100) No (60)strengthen flood protection walls/ strengthen bunds Yes / NoIf yes how would you rate its implementation No idea (100) Good (70)Knowledge that government has identified safe areas of evacuations in No idea (100) No Idea (90)case of emergency at the time of disastersHow would you rate the overall preparedness of Government to face Poor (95) Poor (50)any such eventuality in future


FLOOD FORECASTING IN HIMALAYAS

EWS for Floods: A View from Himalayas

Himalayan region is prone tonatural hazards like floods,

glacial lake outburst, droughts,landslides, avalanches andearthquakes. The unstablegeological conditions and steepterrain, combined with climatechange and frequent extremeweather conditions, pose myriadchallenges for the communities. Thefrequent occurrence of flash floods,one of the major natural disasters inthe region, threatens lives,livelihoods and infrastructure, bothin the mountains and downstream.Vulnerable groups like the poor,women, children, the elderly andpeople with disabilities often sufferthe worst impacts.

The establishment of a regionalflood information system allowedfor a timely exchange of flood dataand information for reducing floodvulnerability. A wide range ofinformation is produced to supportmulti-scale disaster risk reduction(DRR) systems using satellite rainfallestimation, satellite altimetry basedflood early warning systems, floodinundation modelling, and modelderived hydrological information.Whereas, Community Based FloodEarly Warning System (CBFEWS)enabled by wireless technology isone of the promising interventionsfor minimizing flood risk at thecommunity level.

Flood Forecasting Capacity in theHindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) RegionUnderstanding the presentcapabilities of hydro meteorologicalservices in the participatingcountries and disaster managementauthorities and utilizing theexpertise available is necessary forthe development of an RegionalFlood Information System (RFIS).

Adequacy of hydro meteorologicalobservation networks and qualitycontrol of observations ofHydrometric information isfundamental to the planning,operation and management of waterresources and flood defense. Hydrometeorological observationnetworks include stage anddischarge measurements as well asmeteorological observations such asrainfall, temperature, humidity,pressure and wind speed.

Development of a Regional FloodInformation SystemThe occurrence or threat of naturaldisasters creates opportunities tofacilitate cooperation amongcountries by fostering linkages.Given the geopolitical sensitivity inthe HKH region, there are fewregional initiatives for cooperationand management of hazards andwater resources. But the increasingproblems of floods that are commonto all countries have brought themtogether to work collectively inlooking at ways to minimize theadverse impacts. One such example

is the HKH Hydrological CycleObserving System (HYCOS), aregional initiative to establish anRFIS in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Indus Basins. ICIMODinitiated this project in partnershipwith WMO and the regional membercountries Bangladesh, Bhutan,China, India, Nepal and Pakistan(Molden et al., 2014).

Real-time Monitoring NetworkEarly flood warning for betterpreparedness is largely dependenton the timely availability andquality of hydro meteorologicaldata. Collection of hydrometeorological data in real timerequires a range of sophisticatedsensors together with professionalcompetence in management andoperation. The first priority was toupdate and automate existing hydro-meteorological stations to makethem capable of observingparameters and transmitting the dataat regular and specific intervals. Awide range of options are availablefor automatic in situ water-levelobservations, including stilling

Village level trained task force member.


Editorial Advisors:

ALL INDIA DISASTER MITIGATION INSTITUTE411 Sakar Five, Behind Old Natraj Cinema, Near Mithakhali Railway Crossing, Ashram Road,Ahmedabad–380 009 India. Tele/Fax: +91-79-2658 2962E-mail: [email protected], Website: http://www.aidmi.org, www.southasiadisasters.net

Denis NkalaRegional Coordinator, South-South Cooperationand Country Support (Asia-Pacific), UnitedNations Development Programme, New York

Ian DavisVisiting Professor in Disaster Risk Management inCopenhagen, Lund, Kyoto and Oxford BrookesUniversities

Dr. John TwiggSenior Research Fellow in the Risk and Resilienceprogramme, Overseas Development Institute(ODI), London

Madhavi Malalgoda AriyabanduSub-Regional Coordinator, Central Asia & SouthCaucasus, United Nations Office for Disaster RiskReduction (UNISDR), Kazakhstan

Mihir R. BhattAll India Disaster Mitigation Institute, India

Dr. Satchit Balsari, MD, MPHThe University Hospital of Columbia and Cornell,New York, USA

T. Nanda KumarFormer Chairman, Institute of Rural ManagementAnand (IRMA), Anand, Gujarat, India

wells, pressure sensors, bubblersensors and radar sensors.

Data StorageFor the HYCOS initiative, datastorage is provided in three differentplaces. At the site level, site-specificdata are stored in a cyclic memorythat can hold data for 2-10 years.Real-time data is transmittedsimultaneously to the nationalservers and a regional server; thetwo servers are synchronizedperiodically to ensure that the sameset of data is available on both. Inaddition, an automated plausibilityanalysis of incoming data isperformed as a first-order qualitycheck.

NepalNepal is highly vulnerable to theimpacts of climate change. Thecountry's average temperature isincreasing at the rate of about 0.04oC,and the trend is much higher in theHigh Himalaya region (4,000-8,000m). This contributes to glacialretreat and expansion of lakes,raising the risk of Glacial LakeOutburst Flood (GLOF). At the sametime, deforestation and landdegradation of Churai region (700-1,500m) have increased flash floodsand inundations especially causingsevere damage to the downstreamTerai region (below 750m).

Addressing the situation, theNational Adaptation Programme ofAction (NAPA) has prioritized in itscombined profile 4 as GLOFMonitoring and Disaster RiskReduction.

The Community Based Flood EarlyWarning System has been installedand operated within the capacityand capability of the communitiesof the affected area to ensure thesustainability of the project.

Local community has developedflood maps, identification ofevacuation routes, designation ofevacuation sites and shelters, andimplementation of the CommunityBased Flood Early Warning System(CBFEWS) in small tributaries forflash flood.

Communication between upstreamand downstream communities waspromoted to enhance collaboration.Increases in river water levelupstream are a good indicator offlooding events downstream. DHMemployed the local monitoring stafffrom the upstream community, andequipped them with basic rivermonitoring system (solar poweredfor communities with no gridconnectivity), but most of theactivities were carried out byupstream communities themselves.

Creative use of existing resourcesand collaboration with variousGovernment Agencies, NGOs andprivate-sector companies were keyto deliver the CFGORRP. Also, thereis a risk of mountain trekkers beingcaught up in the GLOF along thetrail. To solve these problems, DHMinstalled an automated monitoringstation at the glacial lake with thecollaboration with the Ministry ofHome Affairs (MoHA) andtelecommunication companies(Nepal Telecom and NCELL) todisseminate warning using SMS.

Institutional ArrangementsThe executing agency is theDepartment of Hydrology andMeteorology (DHM) under theMinistry of Population andEnvironment (MoPE), which istechnically supported by UNDP. TheDepartment of Soil Conservationand Watershed Management(DSCWM), the Department of WaterInduced Disaster and Prevention(DWIDP), and the Department ofNational Park and WildlifeConservation (DNPWC) arecollaborating partners, andresponsible for providing inputs toplanning, technical oversight.

– Dr. Bhanu Mall, Secretary,Purvanchal Garmin Vikas Sangathan

(PGVS), Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh,India

snet 170 heat wave

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