1

SMART POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGY FOR AFRICA

JACOB KLIMSTRA FOR WÄRTSILÄ POWER PLANTS

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 2012

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20122

THE CHALLENGE: MUCH MORE QUALITY ELECTRICITY NEEDEDAS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,0000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Gross Domestic Product (PPP) per capita per year in 2009 (year 2000 U$$)

Electricity use per capita per year (kWh)Africa

LatinAmerica

Asia (excl. China)

China

Middle East

EuropeNorth America

WorldAverage

Trend lineR2 = 0.95

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20123

AFRICA IS NOT AFRICA AVERAGED

1,050 1,000 950 900 850 800 7500

100

200

300

400

500

600

Final electricity use per capita (kWh/annum)

Population (millions)

Africa totalaveraged

World Average2 500 kWh/cap/year

Africa total minusRep. South Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa minusRep. South Africa

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20124

Typical trend for a desirable electricity supply

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2015 20250

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000desired kWh/cap trend year 2009 world average target for 2025

kWh/capita/year

year

Growth:from 7% towards > 20%

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20125

FLEXIBILITY IS CRUCIAL:THE SMART APPROACH‘Economic boom for Sub-Saharan Africa’‘Bleak outlook for the world economy’‘Solar PV reaches grid parity’‘(No) Agreement on CO2 reduction’

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20126

MULTIPLE GENERATING UNITS IN PARALLEL OR ONE BIG ONE?

• Reliability and availability(tripping & maintenance)

• Power output flexibility(demand variations)

• Power capacity flexibility(economic circumstances)

• Fuel flexibility (gas, bio gas, oil, bio oil)• Capital costs• Local skills

Single Big Power Plant500 MW

n Smaller units500 MW

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20127

POWER AVAILABILITY

IN ENERGY-DEPENDENT COUNTRIES (OECD OR EDC): 99% to 99.99% availability of electricity

99%: 3.7 days per year no electricity

99.9%: 9 hours per year no electricity

99.99%: 53 minutes per year no electricity

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20128

THE N+ 1 APPROACH: 5 CAN CARRY THE LOAD OF 6

2 3 4 5 6 71E-11

0.000000001

0.0000001

0.00001

0.001

0.1

10

Probability (%)

Number of units failing at the same time

0.144089402

0.001940598

1.47015E-05

5.94E-08

1E-10

99.85%sufficient power

Unit reliability 99%

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20129

A TYPICAL DAILY DEMAND PATTERN

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Power (MW)

Time of the day (h)

Intermediate load

Peak load

Base load

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201210

NOW: SOLAR PV BREAKS THROUGH

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Power (MW)

Time of the day (h)

Solar Demand Generators

Steep andsubstantial peak

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201211

FAST RESPONSE NEEDED

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 4200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Power (MW)

Time (minute)

Gas Engine GTCC Steam Plant

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201212

LOWER UTILISATION FACTOR CAPITAL COSTS

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

5

10

15

20

25

30

Relative capital costs per kWh

Utilisation factor (%)

Coal-fired PP Nuclear PPGas Engine PP

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201213

SMART POWER GENERATION:EFFICIENT, FLEXIBLE, FAST, LOW COSTS

Multiple units in parallel runonly when needed

Electricity grid connection

Fuel supply

1 102 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201214

CASCADING: ONLY RUN WHEN IT IS REALLY NEEDED

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1800

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Fuel efficiency (%)

Power output (MW)

Single Generating Unit Cascading Power Plant

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201215

MINIMUM MAINTENANCE COSTS

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1800

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Specific maintenance costs (€cts/kWh)

Power output (MW)

Single Generating Unit Cascading Power Plant

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201216

POWERPLANTS IN AFRICA

HFO DUAL LFO

GAS Crude

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201217

AFRICA INDUSTRIES

HFO DUAL LFO

GAS Crude

Total output 2442.4 MWPlants 353Engines 752In Countries 38

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201218

AFRICA UTILITIES

HFO DUAL LFO

GAS

Total output 4198.9 MWPlants 417Engines 949In Countries 42

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201219

IN CONCLUSION

1. Africa shows huge growth in power demand

2. Africa needs flexible power plants

3. Power plants based on multiple units offer flexibility,reliability and efficiency

4. Africa is already a forerunner with flexible plants

© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201220

VISION – SMART POWER GENERATION