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SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AGAnalyst / Investor PresentationQuarterly Financial Results: January to September 2018
SMA Solar Technology AG
Jürgen Reinert, CEOUlrich Hadding, CFONovember 8, 2018
Disclaimer
IMPORTANT LEGAL NOTICEThis presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite or otherwise acquire, any securities of SMA Solar Technology AG (the "Company") or any present or future subsidiary of the Company (together with the Company, the "SMA Group") nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract to purchase or subscribe for any securities in the Company or any member of the SMA Group or commitment whatsoever.All information contained herein has been carefully prepared. Nevertheless, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing herein shall be construed to be a representation of such guarantee. The Company shall assume no liability for errors contained in this document, unless damages are caused intentionally or through gross negligence by the Company. Furthermore, the Company shall assume no liability for effects of activities that evolve from the basis of data and information provided by this presentation.The information contained in this presentation is subject to amendment, revision and updating, which does not underlie any prior announcement by the Company. Certain statements contained in this presentation may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on the management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements as a result of, among others, factors, changing business or other market conditions and the prospects for growth anticipated by the management of the Company. These and other factors could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date of this presentation.This presentation is for information purposes only and may not be further distributed or passed on to any party which is not the addressee of this presentation solely after prior consent of the Company. No part of this presentation must be copied, reproduced or cited by the addressees hereof other than for the purpose for which it has been provided to the addressee. The content of this presentation, meaning all texts, pictures and sounds, are protected by copyright. The contained information of the presentation is property of the Company. This document is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States of America. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States of America absent registration or an exemption from registration under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 as amended.
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• Market outlook 2018-2020 adjusted mainly due to higher installations in China: In 2018, we expect global new PV installations of 99 GW, thereof 39 GW in China (previously: 83 GW / 25 GW).
• Managing Board expects sales of €800m to €850m in 2018 and a break-even to slightly negative EBITDA (after one-off effects from restructuring).2
• The SMA Managing Board is anticipating sales growth and positive EBITDA for 2019.
Managing Board Expects Sales of €800m to €850m in 2018 and Anticipates Sales Growth and Positive EBITDA for 2019
3
Financial HighlightsQ1-Q3/2018
Top Line • SMA increased volume to >6 GW (+6% y/y)• Sales decreased slightly y/y to € 575m mainly due to accelerated price
pressure in all segments and project postponements.Profitability, Bankability
• EBITDA decreased by 9% to €51m in Q1-Q3/18 year over year; both periods were impacted by positive net effects.1
• Solid balance sheet structure with >50% equity ratio, > €370m net cash and €100m long-term credit facility
1.Q1-Q3/18 net EBITDA effect of €8m: release of general warranty provision + €33m, devaluation of inventories - €14m and - €11m for single warranty provisions; Q1-Q3/17 included the book gain from the sale of the Railway division (high single-digit €m-amount)
2.Previously: Sales of €900 million to 1,000 million and EBITDA of €90 million to €110 million
Outlook 2018
Strategic Highlights
New strategic storage partnership
New subsidiary
New Products
Jürgen Reinert Becomes New Chief Executive Officer
Sales Decreased Slightly Mainly due to Accelerated Price Pressure in all Segments and Project Postponements
41.Q1-Q3/18 net EBITDA effect of €8m: release of general warranty provision + €33m, devaluation of
inventories - €14m and - €11m for single warranty provisions; Q1-Q3/17 included the book gain from the sale of the Railway division (high single-digit €m-amount)
2. Net Working Capital ratio: inventory + trade receivables - trade payables (advanced payments included); as of last twelve months sales
Q1-Q3/ 2017
Q1-Q3/ 2018 Change
MW sold 5,894 6,216 6%Sales 593 575 -3%
Residential 170 131 -23%Commercial 188 192 2%Utility 190 206 8%Storage 45 46 3%Digital Energy 0 0
Gross Margin (in %) 21% 23%EBITDA1 55 51 -9%Depreciation 39 40 0%EBIT 16 11 -30%.Net income 25 9 -66%Free Cash Flow (adj.) 57 -66 n.m.Net CapEx (incl. R&D) 22 27 25%
Key Financials (in € million)
2017/12/31 2018/09/30 ChangeNet cash 450 373 -17%Total assets 1,216 1,141 -6%NWC ratio (in %)2 19% 24%
2017/2018Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Sales 299 183 212 180Residential 63 39 44 48Commercial 84 57 75 60Utility 100 67 84 55Storage 52 20 9 17Digital Energy ./. 0 0 0
Gross margin 25% 21% 27% 20%EBITDA 42 18 23 10
FIT CUTS IN CHINA LED TO ACCELERATED PRICE PRESSURE IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
SMA EXPECTS MARKET CONSOLIDATION OF INVERTER MANUFACTURERS TO ACCELERATE
Global PV Market Development is Affected by China due to FIT Cut Announcement of Government
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Most recent price drop may accelerate volume growth in coming years. 1.SMA Market Model Q4 2018; New PV installations, Res ≤10kW plants, Com >10kW to 1MW plants, Uti >1MW plants2.China PV Installations in January – September 2018 reached 34.5 GW 3.New installations (plant size >10 kW) in January – August 2017 compared to 2018 according to Federal Network Agency
Core Business: PV Installations (GWdc)1
Market Trends
EMEA market increase is mainly driven by
Germany and France. Utility and Commercial segments in Germany experienced 90% YoY
growth.3
PV market in China is expected to reduce by 26%2 in 2018 due to FIT cuts for all segments except
poverty alleviation and top runner program. Especially small,
domestically operating Chinese players are expected to disappear.
Utility and commercial segments account for >85% of total volume. Projects are
now being postponed due to rapidly falling prices caused by overcapacity from China. Growth expected in 2020.
Growth in mature markets is driven by the
competitive costs of solar power and significant battery
penetration for self-consumption.
Effective programs drive fast growth from a small base in many countries
(e.g. Indonesia, Vietnam) or help to reach
ambitious political targets (e.g. India).
REGIONS SEGMENTS
13 18 21 2515 16 19 222126
32 3653 39
4040
113
2017 20192018
102
2020
99122
ChinaAPAC
EMEAAMER
11 12 13 1526 25 28 30
65 6272 78
113
20192017 2018 2020
122102 99
Residential
UtilityCommercial
in GW in GW
Strong Price Decline for PV Inverters Leads to a Rather Stable Market from 2018 to 2020
71.SMA Market Model Q4 2018; PV Inverter incl. new and repowering installations, Res ≤10kW plants, Com >10kW to 1MW plants, Uti >1MW plants 2.Power Purchase Agreement3.Wind, PV, Gas
Core business: PV Inverter Revenue (€ bn)1
Market Trends
Projects compete on the cost of energy independent from the technology.3 Key success factors for ground-mounted projects are the right market
focus and cost-competitiveness over lifetime.
In contrast, roof-top projects compete for the best site. Key success factors are the right segment focus, the technical know-how to integrate the
solution and the brand.
Regulatory framework (import
tariffs, NEC) impact market
development as well.
REGIONS SEGMENTS
1.0
1.41.3
1.5
0.9
2017
0.8
1.4
1.1
1.1
2018
1.3
1.1
0.8
1.1
2019
1.0
0.9
1.1
2020
4.7 4.4 4.4 4.3
APACChina
EMEAAMER
4.42.0 1.9
1.4 1.3
1.3 1.21.2
2017 2018
2.0
1.2
2019
2.0
1.2
1.2
2020
4.7 4.4 4.3
UtilityCommercialResidential
in € bn in € bn
Many customers in all regions wait with purchase decision
until prices stabilize.
The suspension of approvals for FIT-supported plants in
China effective June 2018 led to increasing price pressure
on PV inverters for all segments. Annual price drop
between 10% and 25%.
• The megatrends decarbonization, technical cost decrease, sector convergence and digitalization will lead to a higher share of renewable energy and its growth.
• The need for digital solutions and battery storage will create new value pools.
• PV inverters will serve as the backbone for smart grid solutions connecting the components and collecting data.
• The traditional PV market is expected to grow outside China in volume until 2020. The stabilization of price pressure is expected towards 2020.
• O&M services gain importance with continuously declining equipment prices and are key for sustainable PV investments.
The Disruption in the Energy Sector will Open up New Value Pools for Technology Driven Companies such as SMA
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The China announcement changed the PV market landscape. Going forward, SMA expects market consolidation of inverter manufacturers to accelerate.
1.Full O&M2.SMA Market Model Q4 2018
in € bn
6.5
20192017 2018 2020
1.1
6.27.2
8.1
4.7
0.90.6
4.4
1.0
0.70.4
4.4
0.9
0.8
1.3
4.3
1.0
1.5
+9% p.a.
Market Comments
Digital solutions
PV inverter businessO&M servicesStorage inverters
New PV Installs2in GWdc 102 99 113 122
Core and New Business: Global Market Outlook by Sector (in € bn)
1
SMA WILL LAUNCH COST IMPROVED PRODUCTS IN ALL SEGMENTS TO REDUCE VARIABLE COSTS
SMA WILL RESTRUCTURE THE INFRASTRUCTURE TO LOWER FIXED COSTS
SMA’s New Cost Improved Products Improve Variable Cost in All Segments
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Power+ Solution,North America
Sunny Tripower
Q1/18 Q3/18
ResidentialNEC 2017 compliantSunny Boy with integrated MLPE-communication• Power classes: 3.0 – 7.7
kW
ResidentialSunny Tripower with integratedMLPE-communication• Power classes: 3.0 – 6.0 kW
Medium Voltage Power StationUtility• Power Class: 6 MW
Sunny HighpowerPEAK3UtilityNext generation Inverter for decentralized PV plants• Power class: 150 kW
UtilityInverter for decentralized PV plants• Power classes: 60 kW / 75 kW
NEW
Solid Q
Sunny Boy StorageResidential• Power classes: 3.7 -
6.0 kW
Sunny Highpower PEAK1
Sunny TripowerStorageCommercialPower classes: 60 kW
New CORE1 ReleaseCommercial• Power class: 62.5 kW• NEC 2017 compliant
Medium Voltage Power StationUtility• Power Class: 4.6 MW
Sunny BoyResidentialNew platform• Power classes:
3.0 – 5.8 kW
2019Q2/18
SMA + BYD Solar SolutionResidential U.S. Market• Power class:
5-60 kW
• The strategy 2020 remains in place.• SMA will accelerate its effects to become a
system and solution provider to enter into higher margin business.
• SMA will foster its service business to capitalize on its installed base of 70 GW.
• SMA will continue to offer energy services (Coneva) to benefit from the transition in the energy sector.
• SMA‘s management will negotiate the restructuring concept with the workers council until end of 2018.
• Implementation is planned for 2019. EBIT effectiveness of restructuring measures will take beyond 2019.
Due to the High Price Pressure SMA has to Lower the Fixed Cost Base as well to Protect Profitability
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One-offs for key restructuring measures will amount to an upper double-digit million euro figure. Details will be disclosed once negotiations with workers council are completed.
Strategy and TimingKey Restructuring Areas
1234
Reduce Complexity in R&D and ProductionSMA operates sites in Germany, Poland and China. Going forward, SMA will consolidate its footprint to lower fixed costs and complexity.Adjust Service ConceptSMA operates field service teams and contact centers in all key regions. Going forward, SMA will outsource certain activities to improve efficiency.
Adjust Portfolio SMA serves all segments and regions. Going forward, SMA will streamline the portfolio to reduce complexity.
Restructuring of OverheadSMA will adjust processes and work scope to increase efficiency across all overhead functions.
MANAGEMENT EXPERIENCED ACCELERATED PRICE PRESSURE IN ALL SEGMENTS AND POSTPONEMENTS OF PROJECTS IN Q3/2018
ON SEPTEMBER 27, MANAGEMENT LOWERED SALES AND EARNINGS GUIDANCE AND ANNOUNCED RESTRUCTURING
Sales Decreased Slightly Mainly due to the Residential Segment
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U.S. market remains below expectations in the commercial and utility segments.
170
188
190
45
131
192
206
46
Residential
Commercial
Storage
Utility
Q1-Q3/2017Q1-Q3/2018Q1-Q3/17
33%
41%
23%
2017
44% 26%
33%
EMEA18%
49%
33%
Q1-Q3/18
Americas
APAC
891
593 575-3%
Sales (in € million)
5.9GW 8.5
Sales by Segment1
(in € million)6.2
1415
2
products2 services2
156116
187
19171182
1.w/o Digital Energy2.New Segment information according to IFRS 15 shows sales with external services per segment. Thereby, External Services are unlike the former Service segment and include
commissioning, extended warranties, service and maintenance contracts, operational management, remote system monitoring and digital energy services. External Product Sales include inverters, storage systems, communication products, spare parts and accessories. See back up for further information.
24
5186
EBITDA Decreased by 9% to €51m Year over Year; Both Periods Were Impacted by Positive Net Effects.1
14
The Residential and Commercial segments increased profitability as a result of new product launches and a positive effect from the release of general warranty provisions.
97
55 51
Q1-Q3/20182017 Q1-Q3/2017
Depreciation/Amortization
EBIT by Segment2 (in % of Sales)
-39-53
EBITDA (in € million)
11%Margin 9%
-40
9%
16%Residential
Commercial
3%Utility
11%
Storage
0%
1%
-11%
3%-1%
Q1-Q3/2017Q1-Q3/2018
1.Q1-Q3/18 net EBITDA effect of €8m: release of general warranty provisions + €33m, devaluation of inventories - €14m and - €11m for single warranty provisions 2.w/o Digital Energy
Strong Balance Sheet with Equity Ratio of > 50 % - Provisions Declined Significantly due to Adjustment of Warranty Provisions
15
Net working capital increased due to a build-up in inventories to ensure the ability to deliver in the Residential and Commercial segments.
88 119
6483
160118
-130 -112
13
-27
206
September 30, 2018Dec. 31, 2017(adjusted)2
168
-17
15
Trade receivablesTrade payables
Unfinished goodsRaw materials and consumables
Finished goods
Advanced Payments
NWC ratio1 2017/12/31 2018/09/30 Change
Non-current assets 358 344 -4%
Working capital 325 335 3%
Other assets 63 70 13%
Total cash 470 392 -17%
Shareholder‘s equity 612 608 -1%
Provisions3 156 126 -19%
Trade payables 130 112 -15%
Financial liabilities4 20 18 -10%
Other liabilities3 298 277 -7%
Total 1,216 1,141 -6%
Group Balance Sheet, reclassified (in € million)
1.Net Working Capital ratio: inventory + trade receivables - trade payables (advanced payments included); as of last twelve months sales
2.NWC ratio as of 2018 reporting includes advanced payments; the year end figure 2017 has
been adjusted accordingly (see back up for further information)3.Not interest-bearing4.w/o not interest bearing derivatives: € 2.0m (2017: € 0.4m)
24%19%
Net Working Capital (in € million)
Q1-Q3/2017 Q1-Q3/2018 Change
Net Income 25 9 -66%Gross Cash Flow 51 10 -81%Cash Flow from Operating Activities 79 -39 n.m.Net Capex2 -22 -27 25%Free Cash Flow (Adj.) 57 -66 n.m.Net Investments from Securities and Other Financial Assets -85 14 n.m
Acquisitions/ Divestitures 17 0Free Cash Flow (IFRS) -11 --52 n.m.
Cash Flow from Operating Activities Lower than Previous Year Mainly due to Tax Payments and Higher Inventories1
161. Income tax paid: Q1-Q3/2018: - €25m; Q1-Q3/2017: - €12m; change in inventories Q1-Q3/2018:-- €65m, Q1-Q3/2017 - €38m2. Thereof R&D capitalization: Q1-Q3/2018: €14m (Q1-Q3/2017: €14m)
SMA’s business is not capital intense. Gross cash flow will remain positive in 2018.
Cash Flow (in € million)
Order Backlog Decreased due to Higher Ability to Deliver and Lower than Expected Order Intake
17
The order backlog is expected to increase in the months to come.
62111
408 405 391 393 386
338 246 256 187 163
31.03.201830.09.2017 31.12.2017 30.06.2018
746647651 580
30.09.2018
549
-26%
Service3Products
Order Backlog by Segment (in €m) and Region (in %)
Order Backlog Development (in € million)
Total order backlog: €549m (Sep. 30, 2018)1
Product order backlog by regions (in%)
6554
386
2619
Service2
Utility2
Commercial2Residential2Storage2
19%
39%
41%AmericasEMEAAPAC
1. Thereof €187m for products2. w/o „Service“3. Order backlog attributable to the former segment „Service“, which will be recognized over a period of 5 to 10 years
Guidance 2018 (in € million) Management Comment
For 2019 Management Expects Slight Sales Growth and Positive EBITDA
181.After one-off effects from restructuring2.As of 2018, the net working capital ratio includes advanced payments: inventory +
trade receivables-trade payables (incl. advanced payments); as of LTM3. Incl. c. €20m for R&D
2018Expenses for Digital Solutions >€10mNWC-Ratio2 19-23%Tax Ratio n.m.CapEx (incl R&D)3 c. €45mDepreciation / Amortization c. €50m
• Supply constraints that impacted SMA’s business in H1/2018 will have only a small impact for the rest of the year.
• Price pressure in Utility remains high. Higher price reductions than initially expected in Residential and Commercial.
• Strong sales growth in Commercial due to new products and less supply constraints.
• Energy Management and digital solution business will only have limited sales contribution.
• SMA plans to increase market share, mainly in APAC (China, Japan, Australia).
• Acquisitions in the fields of energy management technology and O&M (total volume €50-100 m) possible.
EBITDASales
800-850891
97
Break-even toslightly negative1
2017 2018
One-offs for key restructuring measures will amount to an upper double-digit million euro figure. Details will be disclosed once negotiations with workers council are completed.
SMA is a Leading Player for PV Inverters, Storage and O&M
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Investment Highlights
Uniquely positioned in the solar market / best brand
• A leading global specialist for photovoltaics system technology with 70 GW installed base
• Complete portfolio to serve all PV segments• Present in 19 countries with strong service capabilities
and access to all channels• Award-winning 20 GW production to achieve scale
Leverage PV expertise to enter into high margin business
• Strong partnerships to create a new ecosystem• Know-how & products to benefit from strong growth in the
field of battery storage• With ennexOS1, SMA has set the basis to manage the
complexity of integrated solutions• Infrastructure to expand into data-driven business models and
services
Key Financials2018
Sales€800 m - €850 m EBITDABreak-even to slightly negative
1.SMA’s Energy Management Platform
SMA has an experienced management team with a proven track record.
Key ProductInnovations 2018
SOCIAL MEDIAwww.SMA.de/Newsroom
SMA Solar Technology AG
BACK UP
SMA has a Sound Strategy in Place to Benefit from the Disruption in the Energy Sector
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GLOBAL MARKET LEADER in all SegmentsWe want to be #1in the RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL, UTILITY, SERVICE and STORAGE segments.
SMA is a Provider of Systems and SolutionsBy 2020, sales of non-PV inverters are expected to rise from around 20% of total sales to > 40%.
Sustainable Profitability and low Capital IntensitySMA strives for continuous efficiency improvements. If necessary, the profitability will be ensured by means of reductions in structural costs.
Development of SMA by means of Disruptive ApproachesWe want to achieve this by focusing on three disruptive initiatives. “Energy Services” and “Energy Portal” are technology-driven, data-based business models while “Energy Shop” is an end-to-end sales model to digitize our sales channel.
SMA is an ATTRACTIVE COMPANYWe live by our values and provide freedom for responsible entrepreneurial action. We stand out due to fairness, internationality and sustainability.
Back up