slides presentation transformation and choice of european

KAABA SymposiumThe Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis

Seoul, June 23, 2010

Transformation and Choiceof European Automobile Industry

Post-Global Financial Crisis

Michel FREYSSENETCNRS ParisGERPISA

CONTENT

• European auto industry, the year before the crisis

• The actions of the carmakers and of the Statesand their effects on the automobile crisis

• Opportunities and new orientations to prepare thefuture

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation andChoice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

The year before…

• Europe: one third of the world automobile market and of theworldwide production

• A slight tendantial bipolarization of the automobile demand structure

• Trajectories divergence of Western Europa and of Central Europa

• Vehicle type preferences of South Europa and of North Europa

• Different profit strategies of carmakers

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformationand Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choiceof Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

Market share

Diesel 4x4

Average cubic capacity Average power


Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "TheTransformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy


The actions of the carmakers and of the Statesand their effects on the auto crisis (1)

• The common reactions of carmakers- free cash plans- axing of temporary jobs, work time reduction, hiring stop- modifications of the products plans

• The differentiated reactions of carmakers- transfer of subsidiaries and plant closures by GM andFord- at the contrary of the others


The actions of the carmakers and of the Statesand their effects on the auto crisis (2)

• Support plans to the banks of carmakers to be able tofinance the automobile credit

• Support plans to car demand : « scrappage premiums » and« CO2 reduction premiums »

• A moderate fall of demand• A boom of small and less carbon cars• After the premiums?


Source: ACEA

Opportunities and new orientations (1)

• Unusual race to increase the national competitivity, bteweenFrance and Germany

• The battle for Opel: Fiat, Magna, GM.Why didn’t PSA, VW or others buy Opel?

• European specialist carmakers on sale: Saab and Volvo.Only Chinese and sport carmakers were interessed.Why?

• European carmakers prefered new alliances and joint ventures:VW-Porsche-SuzukiMaruti… may be ProtonPSA, Mitsubishi… may be ChanganRenault/Nissan-Daimler…may be SsangYongFiat-Chrysler…and Sollers

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "TheTransformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, 2010. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

Opportunities and new orientations (2)

• The clean(er) automobile perspective: evolution or revolution?

• The contrasted and changing positions of the carmakers

• The different preferences and policies of the States

• What are their real strategies?

• The newcomers and their chances


(changing!) clean(er) automobile strategies:priority to…

PSAVolkswagenDaimlerBMW

Hybridversus alltypes

Renault-Nissan andnewcomers(Bolloré,Heuliez,Micro Vett,Lightning…)

FiatVolvo

full electricplug-in hybridless carbonfuels: gaz,agrofuel


alternative energies national preferencefor clean(er) cars …until now…

GermanyEuropean Union

FranceGreat BritainPortugalSpainIrlandDanemarkSwitzerland

RussiaItaly

Sweden

Objectives ofreduction, only

Plug-in hybrid,full electric

Natural gasAgro-fuel


Conclusion

• From 2008 crisis …to a Second Automobile Revolution

• A new architecture automobile?

• A complete change of the geography, the economy and thesociology of the world automobile industry?

A hard battle is starting


For more informations and analysis

http://freyssenet.comhttp://gerpisa.univ-evry.frhttp://leblog.gerpisa.org


slides presentation transformation and choice of european

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