Current focus: Land monitoring and the UNFCCCObserving essential climate variables (ECV)Reduce uncertainties in monitoring the global climate system Land cover, biomass and fire as key variablesDevelopment of standards and prepare implementation programmes

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)Stronger mitigation role of developing countries in post-2012 agreementRemote sensing capabilities to build national forest carbon monitoring systemshttp://www.gofc-gold.uni-jena.de/reddwww.fao.org/gtos/topcECV.html

Observing land cover as ECVwww.fao.org/gtos/

Global Observation of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics

1/2/3 Background REDD

Carbon StockSectoral Crediting BaselinesDirect BarterDesign positive incentives:Programatic or sectoral scale

Similar to programmatic CDM

Calculate historical and future baseline carbon stock credits gained for performance below baselinePNGSolomonsBoliviaIndonesiaIndiaCosta RicaChinaInternational incentive mechanisms need to work for all nations

Draft decision text for Copenhagen

Foundations for REDD monitoringGuidance for monitoring and implementation provided under the UNFCCC;Monitoring should be part of the national REDD implementation strategy and objectives;Knowledge in the use and application the methods of IPCC LULUCF good practice guidelines;Existing national forest monitoring capabilities;Expertise in estimating terrestrial carbon dynamics and related human-induced changes;The consideration of different capabilities for monitoring forest changes in the historical and for the future.

IPCC principles and developing country capacities

Consistency: use of heterogeneous data sources rather than a systematic and consistent monitoringTransparency: expert opinions, independent assessments or model estimations are commonly used as dataComparability: few countries have experience in using the IPCC GPG as common estimation and reporting formatCompleteness: lack of suitable forest data in many non-Annex I countries is evident for both area change and changes carbon stocks Accuracy: limited information on the uncertainty and error sources of estimates by countries and approaches to analyze, reduce, and deal with them for international reporting

Variability in capacities for REDD monitoring

Consideration of factors:Requirements for monitoring forest carbon on national level (IPCC GPG)Existing national capacities for national forest monitoringProgress in national GHG inventory and engagement in REDDREDD particular characteristics: importance of forest fires, soil carbon, deforestation rate etc.Specific technical challenges (remote sensing): cloud cover, seasonality, topography, remote sensing data availability and access proceduresCapacity gap

Earth observation contribution to UNFCCC-REDD2005GOFC-GOLD working group est.COP11MontrealGTOSsubmission ISubm. of view by parties I1st GOFC-GOLD workshopED/GOFCSBSTA side eventSBSTA 241st SBSTA workshopGTOS/GOFC report COP12NairobiESA/GOFCSide event + booth Subm. of view by parties II2nd SBSTA workshopSBSTA 262nd GOFC-GOLD workshopESA/GOFC-GOLDside eventGTOSsubmission IICOP13Bali 1.+ 2. REDD Sourcebook draft WINROCK/GOFC-GOLDside event2006200720082009Subm. of view by parties III + IVGTOSsubmission IIISBSTA 28GTOS/GOFC-GOLDside event3rd GOFC-GOLD workshopCOP14Poznan3rd SBSTA workshopSBSTA 30COP15CopenhagenPNG / GOFC-GOLDside eventInformal REDDworkshopGOFC-GOLDside event3. REDD Sourcebook version

REDD Sourcebookhttp://www.gofc-gold.uni-jena.de/redd

Global Observation of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics

4 Background forest monitoring from space

Landsat-calibrated change estimates for Humid Tropics biome 2000-200527.2 Mha lost equaling 2.36% of year 2000 forest cover, 47.8% of total in BrazilSource: Matt Hansen

JRC/FAO sampling in Central Africa changes 1990-2000degradationdeforestationSource: F. Achard, EC-JRC

Fine-scale land cover/use changeSuite of national / regional experiences:National monitoring programs (i.e. CORINE, Australia)UNFCCC Kyoto reporting on LULUCF/AFOLUUNFCCC process on reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries:National case studies (GSE forest monitoring)Readiness activities in evolution (Worldbank, UN-REDD)Projects with global/large scale focus:EU/JRC: TREES 3 (sampling approach)UMD/SDSU: combined MODIS/Landsat approachGLOBCOVER and ECV monitoringFAO-Forest Resources Assessment 2010

Current availability of fine-scale satellite data sources and capacities for global land change observations

(Note: dark gray=common or fully applicable, light gray=partially applicable/several examples, white=rare or no applications or examples)Increase usefulness through demonstration

Satellite observation system/programTechnical observation challenges solvedAccess to information on quality of archived data worldwideContinuous observation program for global coveragePre-processed global image datasets generated & accessibleImage data available in mapping agencies for land change analysisCapacities to sustainably produce/use map products in developing countriesOPTICALLANDSAT TM/ETMASTEROn demandSPOT HRV (1-5)CommerciallyCBERS 1-3 RegionallyIRS / Indian programRegionallyDMC programProbablyCommerciallySARALOS/PALSAR + JERSRegionallyENVISAT ASAR, ERS 1/2RegionallyTERRARSAR-XCommerciallyHRIKONOS, GEOEyeProbablyPotentiallyICESAT/GLAS (LIDAR)

Addressing technical challenges for remote sensing

Mean annual cloud coverSeasonalityTopographyCountry coverage of Landsat 5 receiving stationsMean annual cloud free country coverage with SPOT data 2006-08Average internet download speedPercentVariability in cloud cover (%)Area with steep slopes (%)

GEO forest carbon tracking taskScope and work items to improve situation

Global Observation of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics

4 Evolving technologies different foci degradation, carbon etc.

Monitoring carbon stock change in degraded forestsInventory based approaches and long-term field observationsRemote sensing to detect degraded area:Direct detection of degradation (i.e. canopy damage)Indirect approaches (detection of human infrastructure)Operational fire monitoring systems

Country objectives and importance of degradation:Changes in forests remaining forests as key category?Monitoring forest degradation important to avoid displacement of emissions from reduced deforestation Country aiming to claim credits on reduced emissions from forest degradation (which processes)

The role of LIDAR observationsLIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) sensors: directly measure three-dimensional distribution of vegetation canopy components and sub-canopy topographyTool for a range of forest inventory information primarily for estimation of tree/stand heights, also volume, crown closure and biomassMost operational examples using airborne systems (footprint size of 0.1 2 m)Global space-borne ICESAT/GLAS with limitations caused by 70 m footprint diameter

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observationsActive system independent of atmosphereData of several space-borne systems archivedALOS L-band global observations strategy since 2007 Requirements and status of preprocessingBaseline forest mappingCloudy areasProject case studies

Source: Josef Kellndorfer, WHRC

Remote sensing support for carbon estimation

Direct biomass mapping from space remains a challenge Existing capabilities:Satellite observation may help to map some specific forest types (i.e. mangroves, plantations etc.) Targeted remote surveys to support carbon monitoring:Very high resolution satellite or airborne data of air-photo quality to assist field surveysSensitivity of LIDAR and long-wave RADAR observations(few regional examples)Integration of in-situ and satellite data for large scale biomass mappingDirect estimation of emissions from fire radiative powerTechnologies are not operational globally but evolving

National carbon assessment through carbon budget modelChoice of methods depends on national circumstances which include available data and their characteristics

Two forest inventories (Sweden, US)One forest inventory plus area change - empirical yield-data driven modeling (Canada)Limited Inventory process modeling (Australia)Mixed approaches

Convergence of methods can be expected

3.4 National carbon assessment through carbon budget modelComponents of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)

What is it?

With very little training and support, local people can accurately assess basic properties of the forest: Species, tree count, dbhMeasurements are part of forest management aimed at local income generation from forest resourcesLow-intensity traditional forest inventory to be used for quality control and conversion to biomassData is processed by professional staff, communicated locallyCorrelation can be made with satellite imageryAreas without samplingQuality controlData collection at local level: Carbon assessment by communities

Global Observation of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics

5 Examples

Global Observation of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics

Vanuatu small remote state with very limited capacities

Satellite coverage for S-Pacific Island State of VanuatuLandsat (1989/91) 18 scenesLandsat (2000/03) 14 scenesASTER (1999/00) 14 scenesSPOT data (1990/92) 17 scenesASTER(2005/07)36 scenes

Hot spotsForest loss [ha]Tree canopy cover [%]

GSE Forest Monitoring ExamplesCameroon and Bolivia

Biomass forest monitoring examplesChristiane will provide slides

GOFC-GOLD biomass working groupwww.fao.org/gtos/gofc-goldwww.gofc-gold.uni-jena.deGlobal Observations of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics

Initial set of goals and objectivesEstablish a platform for coordination and cooperation for biomass monitoringDevelop a community-consens framework for monitoring biomass globallyDedicated contributions to key international activities:Consensus framework on how to observe biomass as ECV and support of evolving programsGOFC-GOLD contribution to GEO tasksGOFC-GOLD technical REDD sourcebook Support of space agencies and plans for dedicated missions (BIOMASS, Desdiny etc.)Integrate activities with other ECV observation products (land cover and fire)Foster comparison and synergy among existing datasets

6 GEO forest carbon tracking task

Web resourcesGOFC-GOLD: http://www.fao.org/gtos/gofc-gold/GOFC-GOLD land cover project office:http://www.gofc-gold.uni-jena.de/GOFC-GOLD REDD sourcebook:http://www.gofc-gold.uni-jena.de/reddIPCC background paper on use of remote sensing in LULUCF sector (GOFC-GOLD 33): http://www.fao.org/gtos/gofc-gold/series.htmlUNFCCC/SBSTA technical paper on costs of monitoring for REDDhttp://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/tp/01.pdf

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