slide4 bme adat_2016
TRANSCRIPT
Mr. Allen, the candidate for politicalParty A will run against Mr. Baker of Party B for office. Past races betweenthese parties for this office werealways close, and it seems that thisone will be no exception – Party A candidates always have gottenbetween 40% and 60% of the vote and have won about half of the elections.
Carl Morris (1987)
QUESTIONMr. Allen needs to know whether he is going to win the election, so he ordersa poll. Which of the 3 outcomes wouldbe the most encouraging for him?(a) Y = 15, n = 20(b) Y = 115, n = 200(c) Y = 1046, n = 2000
Carl Morris (1987)
”A statistician can have his head
in an oven and his feet in ice, and he will say that on the
average he feels fine.
17,9%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
average bottom 99% top 1%
Income real growthUSA 1993-2012
Source: Saez (2013)
17,9%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
average bottom 99% top 1%
Income real growthUSA 1993-2012
Source: Saez (2013)
17,9%
6,6%
86,1%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
80,0%
90,0%
100,0%
average bottom 99% top 1%
Income real growthUSA 1993-2012
Source: Saez (2013)
The Case of Berkeley (1973)
University of California, Berkeleywas sued for bias against women
who had applied for admissionto graduate schools there.
DepartmentMen Women
Applicants Admitted Applicants Admitted
A 825 62% 108 82%
B 560 63% 25 68%
C 325 37% 593 34%
D 417 33% 375 35%
E 191 28% 393 24%
F 272 6% 341 7%
ALL 2590 46% 1835 30%
DepartmentMen Women
Applicants Admitted Applicants Admitted
A 825 62% 108 82%
B 560 63% 25 68%
C 325 37% 593 34%
D 417 33% 375 35%
E 191 28% 393 24%
F 272 6% 341 7%
ALL 2590 46% 1835 30%