slide presentation created by the stategis group
TRANSCRIPT
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U.S. Wireless Broadband: U.S. Wireless Broadband: LMDS, MMDS and Unlicensed SpectrumLMDS, MMDS and Unlicensed Spectrum
February 17, 2000
Presented By:Peter Jarich & James Mendelson
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The Strategis GroupBroadband Information Services
• Telecom Information Services Since 1964• Global Presence• Publications in All Fields
– Wireless Broadband– Internet User Trends– Branding & Bundling– Competitive Telephony & Convergence– Consumer, Financial, Technology Focus
• Online News Services
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WHAT?
What Is Fixed Wireless? Why Is It Important?
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The Wireless Local Loop?
• Fixed, not mobile.
• Not simply voice.• All you need is spectrum!
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The Spectrum?
• Three emerging technologies.• Individual characteristics.• Individual costs.
Service Capacity Range Deployment Deploy CostsLMDS 150+ Mbps 3 miles very limited highMMDS 10 Mbps 35 miles sparse medium
Unlicensed 20 Mbps 20 miles limited low
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The Importance?
• New Technologies• Living Examples• Major Carriers
• Real Drivers
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WHY?
What is the Fixed Wireless Business Model?
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Fixed Wireless Cost Structure
• 80% Labor Cost vs. 80% Equip. Costs
• “Backhoes Don’t Obey Moore’s Law.” - Tren Griffin VP Strategy, NEXTLINK
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Fixed Wireless “Control Structure”
• Facilities Competition is the only option!
• Profit Control• Service Control• The Reality of the
14 Points
Resale
UnbundleLocal Loop
UnbundleT-1
On-Network
Profit Margins
Serv
ice
Con
trol
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Wireless = Bundling (Practice)
Wireless Exceeds Expectations!
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Forecast Teligent Winstar
35% 35+%
25%
Bundling Take Rates
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60 - 70 mi
MMDS Cell Site Migration
• Macro to Micro-cellular deployments.
• More spectrum per end-user.
• More bandwidth per end-user.
Cell Site Migration
5-10 mi
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WHO?
Who has Launched Broadband Wireless Services and Where is it Available?
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Local Multipoint Distribution ServiceHype Becoming Reality
• Urban & Rural• Major & Minor PlayersNEXTLINK
HighSpeed.Com
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MMDS - Wireless CableFollowing the Cable Model
• One-Way & Two Way
• Urban & Rural
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MMDS - Wireless CableSprint & MCI WorldCom Battle AT&T with Nationwide Coverage
• ~200 Markets• Rural & Urban
OperationalNon-Operating
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Unlicensed Spectrum BroadbandThe Early Winner?
• 200+ Markets• Rural Deployment
Multipoint
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HOW MUCH?
What Revenues will Wireless Broadband Earn?
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Forecast Assumptions
• Internet as Key Driver– current emphasis– local phone service is ubiquitous– new technologies and mission-critical voice
• Scope of Total Internet Market– 2003 Business Penetration = 74.1% to 91.8%– 2003 Residential Penetration = 83.6%– 2003 Access & Transport Revenues = $34.1 Billion
• Target Markets• 2000 - 2001 Launch Dates
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Network Coverage - Business
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2000 2001 2002 2003
LMDSMMDSUnlic.
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Network Coverage (Households)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2000 2001 2002 2003
LMDSMMDSUnlic.
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Broadband Wireless SubscribersBusiness Subscribers
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000
LMDSMMDSUnlic.
LMDS 3872 14023 75363 155827MMDS 3874 19334 125992 289340Unlic. 5939 18601 65168 98599
2000 2001 2002 2003
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0200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,0001,200,0001,400,000
LMDSMMDSUnlic.
LMDS 12097 47446 277534 607695MMDS 42801 126082 598458 1152612Unlic. 1943 12202 76669 199308
2000 2001 2002 2003
Broadband Wireless SubscribersResidential Subscribers
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Service RevenuesBy Technology
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
LMDSMMDSUnlic.
LMDS 25.23 101 596.36 1360.98MMDS 29.78 115.82 697.05 1652.42Unlic. 17.26 58.1 229.41 419.6
2000 2001 2002 2003
Mill
ions
, $ 2003 Total:$3.4 Billion
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Broadband Wireless Market ShareBy Service
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
PhoneInternet
Phone 0.01% 0.06% 0.40% 1.09%Internet 0.26% 0.78% 3.40% 5.89%
2000 2001 2002 2003
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WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
What Conclusions Can We Draw?
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U.S. Wireless Broadband Perspectives
• Wireless Broadband Is Here Today• Wireless Is Not Just Voice• Wireless Meets End-user Demand For
Bundles• Wireless Meets Operator Demand For
Revenue And Service Control• Revenues Are Growing Quickly And Will Be
Substantial!
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U.S. Wireless Broadband: U.S. Wireless Broadband: LMDS, MMDS and Unlicensed SpectrumLMDS, MMDS and Unlicensed Spectrum
To Purchase: Tim Riordan (202) [email protected]
Further Questions: Jamie Mendelson(202) [email protected]
Price:$2,400 (pdf/html)
$2,900 (print)