slide 20.1 cooper et al: tourism: principles and practice, 3e pearson education limited 2005, ©...
TRANSCRIPT
Slide 20.1
Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Chapter 20The Future of Tourism: Trends and Issues Beyond Our Control
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Learning Outcomes
In this lecture we focus on the drivers of change that will impact upon tourism futures, and yet are largely outside the control of the sector. The chapter will provide you with:
• A disciplined approach to analyzing and viewing the future of the tourism system;
• An understanding of the scale of social and political change, including the need for security measures in tourism;
• An awareness of the significance of climate change for tourism futures;• A grasp of the implications of these variables for tourism; and• An awareness of the importance of human resources for the future of
tourism
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Approaching the Future
Figure 20.1 A framework for tourism trends analysis: exogenous variables
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Approaching the Future
The Supply Side: the WTTC’s Blueprint for New Tourism:
• Governments must recognise travel and tourism as a top priority;
• Tourism business must balance economics with environment, people and cultures; and
• Tourism must develop partnerships to share in the pursuit of long-term growth and prosperity.
The demand-side:
• The WTO’s forecasts of international tourism suggest that, despite the setbacks of the early twenty first century, tourism will grow to a billion international arrivals by 2010 and 1.56 billion by 2020.
• Yet, surprisingly, despite these huge numbers, they only represent 7% of world's population who will have access to international travel.
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Drivers of the Future
• All drivers are linked• Social Drivers
– Demographics– Social change
• Political Drivers - have resulted in redrafting the world map– GATS– Trade blocs– Globalisation
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Globalisation
Key drivers of globalisation in tourism are:
• Adoption of free trade agreements, removing barriers to international transactions;
• Computer and communications technology encouraging 'e‑business';• Worldwide acting suppliers utilising CRS and global distribution
systems (GDS); • Decreasing costs of international travel allowing access to most
markets in the world; • Increasing income and wealth in the generating countries; and • Newly emerging destinations and the increased demand for
international travel.
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Globalisation
The consequences of globalisation for the tourism sector include:
• Increasingly standardised procedures and quality control;• Increased competition;• Head office decisions on marketing and technology in the larger companies; • Forging of strategic alliances; • Increased concentration within the accommodation, transport and intermediaries
sectors; • Adoption of global brands such as Disney, Hilton and American Express; • Changing management approaches; • Adoption of new ways of doing business, such as use of e‑mail and the Internet; • Adoption of global distribution systems and yield management; • Changing human resource management practices; and • More difficult trading conditions for small and medium sized enterprises
(SMEs).
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Globalisation
SMEs are dominate in tourism, yet are vulnerable to the effects of globalisation.
Their response has been:
• Policy initiatives, whereby governments support SMEs
• Forming alliances and clusters to leverage economies of scale
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Drivers of the FutureSafety, Security and Risk
• A crisis is ‘any unexpected event that affects traveler confidence in a destination and interferes with the ability to operate normally’.
The WTTC recommends a twin track approach to security:• Promoting the virtues of a coordinated strategy and operational
measures across all parts of the tourism sector; and • Convincing the public and industry employees that the reality
of tourism must be to co-exist with terrorism, providing that the risk is mitigated.
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Safety, Security and Risk
The WTTC's approach is the forging of partnerships between the private sector and governments and the fact that security cannot be an area for commercial rivalry:
1. Coordinate policy actions and communications.2. Develop secure operating environments for travel including
both equipment and personnel. 3. Access and work with the best intelligence to prevent future
incidents and security breaches; and4. Deny terrorists freedom of action.
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Safety, Security and Risk
Table 20.1 The WTO’s crisis guidelines for the tourism industrySource: WTO, 2003a
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
The Bali Crisis
• On Saturday October 12th, 2002, almost 200 tourists and local people were killed by series of terrorist bombings at a night club in Bali’s most popular resort, Kuta. Many more people were injured.
• The immediate impact of the bombings was devastating for the tourism sector in Bali with hotels recording occupancy levels below 10%, inbound air capacity drastically reduced, many local businesses forced to close, and unemployment levels on the island rose significantly.
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
The Bali Crisis (cont’d)
• Even where businesses were able to stay open, staff took voluntary pay cuts.
• In part this was due to the global publicity generated by the bombings, but also the impact of government ‘travel advisories’ advising against travel to Bali. Indeed, until the bombings, Bali was routinely excluded from travel advisories that applied to the rest of Indonesia. But from October 2002, Bali was branded as an equally ‘risky’ destination.
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
The Bali Approach to Recovery (1)
• The Bali bombings represented a crisis on the scale of DESTCON 1 using Bierman’s scale.
• ‘DESTCON 1: A crisis of this magnitude not only threatens the marketability of one destination but has widespread global or regional repercussions on tourism’.
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
The Bali Approach to Recovery (2)PATA’s recommendations:
• Bring all the disparate elements of tourism together at the destination.
• Create an environment for careful planning within which issues of safety and security are addressed and if necessary become enforceable by law.
• The government of Bali should establish, in coordination with the national government, an integrated crisis management plan in which procedures for crisis communication are included.
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
The Bali Approachto Recovery (2) (cont’d)
• Recognize the importance of the aviation sector and work more closely with it.
• Rebuild destination brand through the private/public/consumer sectors and work with a ‘destination maker’.
• Comprehensively broaden the Bali brand to encompass culture and heritage.
• Increase brand awareness through partnership marketing.
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Drivers of the Future
Climate Change
• Key climatic changes are global warming and the erosion of the ozone layer.
• Solutions are based on adoption of the WTO ‘Djerba Protocol on Tourism and Climate Change’, urging governments to: – Adopt the Kyoto protocol on greenhouse gas emissions;
– Research and collaborate on climate change;
– Move tourism up the agenda on climate change discussion;
– Implement sustainable water use practices and the ecological management of sensitive areas; and
– Raise consumer awareness of the issue.
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Climate Change and theGreat Barrier Reef (1)
• Climate change is threatening coral reefs around the world. To quote:
Australia’s reef days’ ‘numbered’ • The Great Barrier Reef off the east coast of Australia will
be largely destroyed by 2050 because of rising sea temperatures…
• The new study predicts that within about 15 years the Barrier Reef tourist and fishing industries will lose thousands of millions of dollars and many thousands of people will be forced out of work (BBC News 21/2/04).
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Climate Change and theGreat Barrier Reef (2)
The evidence:
• Warming of the seas will decimate coral on the reef by 2050
The impact:
• Tourism, mining and agriculture
• Social impact on the coastal communities
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Cooper et al: Tourism: Principles and Practice, 3e Pearson Education Limited 2005, © retained by authors
Human Resources and Tourism
• Tourism HR is in crisis
• Needs to attarct high quality entrants to the industry
• HR policies and practice are unsophisticated
• Education and training is vital for the competitiveness of the sector