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Getting the measure of fuel poverty Final Report of the Fuel Poverty Review Professor John Hills Birmingham

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Getting the measure of fuel poverty Final Report of the Fuel Poverty Review Professor John Hills Birmingham 2 July 2012. SLIDE 2. Perspectives on fuel poverty. Poverty. Health. Unequal ability to convert cash to warmth - Pushed into poverty by high costs - Poor pay more. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Getting the measureof fuel povertyFinal Report of theFuel Poverty Review

Professor John HillsBirmingham2 July 2012

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SLIDE 2

- Unequal ability to convert cash to warmth

- Pushed into poverty by high costs

- Poor pay morePoverty

-High rate of EWDs and morbidity issues in general

- Mental health and social well-being

- Social isolation

Health

-Capital investments out of reach for some

- Potential obstacle to carbon mitigation policy delivery,especially wherecosts go on bills

Carbon / Energy

Perspectives onfuel poverty

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SLIDE 3 PERSPECTIVES ON FUEL POVERTY

Warm Homes and EnergyConservation Act 2000

“A person is to be regarded as living “in fuel poverty” if he

is a member of a household living on a lower income in a

home

which cannot be kept warm at reasonable cost.”

Is this what we currently measure?

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Current definitionA fuel poor household is one that would need to spend more than 10% of its income on adequate warmth.

SLIDE 4

The currentindicator

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SLIDE 5 THE CURRENT INDICATOR

The current definition captures some people who you wouldn’t expect to be fuel poor ….

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SLIDE 6 THE CURRENT INDICATOR

StrengthsNeeds-based Sensitive to three key drivers- Modelled assessment - Income- Doesn’t count being cold as success - Energy efficiency

- Prices

WeaknessesFixed threshold Over-sensitive- No clear rationale - Is unduly dominated by prices- No longer current - Technical issues also have big- Shows tail of distribution impact (e.g. reporting of low

incomes and temperatureRatio standards)

-Numerator / denominator problemUnreliable- Misreports trends- Distorts policy choices

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G

Low income andhigh costs indicator

SLIDE 7

Low income high costs,including a fuel poverty gapOur analysis suggests we want something that is focused on needs, that measures income after housing costs, that reflects the relative nature of costs, that focuses on the overlap set out in WHECA and that measures the depth of the problem.

Our indicator in Plain EnglishUnder this indicator, a fuel poor household is one that :- faces higher than typical costs; and- were it to spend that amount, would fall below the poverty line

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SLIDE 8 LOW INCOME AND HIGH COSTS INDICATOR

The broad concept

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SLIDE 9 LOW INCOME AND HIGH COSTS INDICATOR

The more detailed concept

Fuel povertygap

We are consultingon how to set the thresholds.

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Using the fuel poverty gapThe fuel poverty gap can provide a bridge between targeting and the measurement of fuel poverty.

Importantly, the fuel poverty gap also helps identify those who are deepest in fuel poverty who are priorities for assistance - the current definition encourages concentration on those who are closest to the line.

SLIDE 10 APPLICATIONS: IDENTIFYING PRIORITIES

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SLIDE 11Fuel poverty under twin indicators,1996-2009Under the LIHC indicator, the number of fuel poor households has remained broadly stable over this period.

The fuel poverty gap increased by three-quarters between 2003 and 2009.

The latest figures for 2010 show an unchanged fuel poverty gap of £1.1 billion (the current measure fell that year).

SLIDE 11 THE STATE OF PLAY

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SLIDE 12

Applications:Understanding policyPrinciplesThe impact of a given policy on fuel poverty will depend on three factors:

1.The type of policy (i.e. whether it addresses energy efficiency, income or prices)

2.Who pays for the policy (i.e. customers or taxpayers)

3.Who benefits (i.e. fuel poor households or all households)

≈ Warm Front

≈ CERT

≈ Winter Fuel Payments

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Taxpayer-funded Consumer-funded

SLIDE 13 HOW RESOURCES ARE CURRENTLY DIRECTED

Existing climate and energy packageCurrent policy spans the three key drivers of fuel poverty. The picture is changing between 2009 and 2016 as shown. Deputy Prime Minister has recently announced that part of the ECO ‘carbon saving’ will go to ‘community energy saving’.

2009 2016 (2009 prices)

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SLIDE 14

Applications:Projecting fuel povertyLIHC indicator and fuelpoverty gapOur projections show an increase under both indicators by 2016 – but one that is lower than it would be in the absence of policies.

On our central projection, the fuel poverty gap is more than 50% higher in 2016 than in 2009 and nearly three times what it was in 2003.

This is 10% lower (but only 10% lower) than it would be in the absence of policies.

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Comparing indicatorsCompared to the official indicator, the LIHC indicator is much more stable in the number of households affected and less unduly sensitive to fuel price assumptions.

SLIDE 15 PROJECTIONS OF FUEL POVERTY

The fuel poverty gap (as shown previously) is sensitive to price changes as the current indicator. This seems appropriate. The main impact of sharp price rises is to deepen fuel poverty rather than make the core problem much more widespread.

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SLIDE 16

Applications:Making further progress

ModellingWe spend £500 million on each stylised policy in 2016.These were scenarios with standardised inputs to allow comparison of effects against key indicators.

Kinds of policy we examined- Bill rebate* - Narrowly-targeted energy efficiency policy*- Broadly-targeted energy efficiency policy*- Increase in means-tested benefits- Increase in Winter Fuel Payment

* For these policies we modelled both Exchequer- and supplier-funded variants.The variants differ widely, not just in terms of funding source.

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Results - eligibility by household statusSLIDE 17 MAKING FURTHER PROGRESS

Narrowly targeted supplier-funded energy efficiency

archetype

Broadly targeted supplier-funded energy efficiency

archetype

Energy bill rebate Winter Fuel Payments

This is analogous in some ways to ECO carbon.

This is analogous in some ways to ECO affordable warmth.

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Results – carbon emissions and cost benefit analysis

SLIDE 18 MAKING FURTHER PROGRESS

Our analysis shows that that narrowly targeted energy efficiency policies have the biggest life-time effect on fuel poverty gaps.

In the short term, rebates can make a difference. But these only have one-off value.

The results also show that energy efficiency policies have the best impact on carbon emissions. Bill support leads to increased emissions.

The highest net social returns come from narrowly targeted energy efficiency policies when allowing for the lower incomes of those who benefit (‘equity weighting’). Even without such weighting, all energy efficiency policies provide a very significant return on investment.

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ConclusionSLIDE 19

move away from 10 per cent indicator

adopt a new Low Income High Costs indicator and fuel poverty gap for measuring fuel poverty

use these indicators for operational target setting with a focus on the fuel poverty gap

set out a renewed and ambitious strategy for tackling fuel poverty

We also make a number of technical recommendations.

RecommendationsAlongside certain technical changes, Government should:•

1. Is fuel poverty distinct from general poverty?

2. What does this imply for measurement?

3. How can measurement help effective policy-making?

Yes – it is a serious problem and appears set to rise

The current indicator is flawed.  It would be better to focus directly on the overlap of having both low income and high costs and to separate the measurement of extent and depth.

The LIHC indicator provides a framework for analysis. It flags priorities for action, opens up tools for targeting and highlights risks and trade-offs.

Fulfilling our ToR