slide 1 of 7 / care innovative action workshop 14-15 march 2001 could we cope with a massive growth...
TRANSCRIPT
Slide 1 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001
Could we cope with a massive growthin General / Personal Aviation?
Michael SharplesMichael SharplesPrincipal ScientistPrincipal Scientist
ATC Systems GroupATC Systems GroupDefence Evaluation & Research AgencyDefence Evaluation & Research Agency
UKUK
Could we cope with a massive growthin General / Personal Aviation?
Michael SharplesMichael SharplesPrincipal ScientistPrincipal Scientist
ATC Systems GroupATC Systems GroupDefence Evaluation & Research AgencyDefence Evaluation & Research Agency
UKUK
DERA is and Agency of the Ministry of Defence
Slide 2 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001
The conventional view of future ATM The conventional view of future ATM
Continued growth in commercial traffic achieved through:-Continued growth in commercial traffic achieved through:-
Improved airspace capacityImproved airspace capacity– Removal of routing restrictions (Free Flight)Removal of routing restrictions (Free Flight)– Reduced separation standardsReduced separation standards
Use of larger, more flexible aircraftUse of larger, more flexible aircraft
Slide 3 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001
But the enabling technology and But the enabling technology and the removal of airspace restrictions the removal of airspace restrictions
may have an unforeseen consequence...may have an unforeseen consequence...
Slide 4 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001
Why a large increase in personal aviation?Why a large increase in personal aviation?
Cheaper materials and manufacturing technology Cheaper materials and manufacturing technology
Inheritance of sophisticated FMS technology from Inheritance of sophisticated FMS technology from commercial aviation.commercial aviation.
Cheap, dependable, precision navigation (DGNSS)Cheap, dependable, precision navigation (DGNSS)
Increasingly sophisticated and reliable conflict Increasingly sophisticated and reliable conflict avoidance systems.avoidance systems.
Data link co-ordination between ground & other aircraft.Data link co-ordination between ground & other aircraft.
Slide 5 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001
The consequencesThe consequences
Air Traffic Movements several times greater than forecastAir Traffic Movements several times greater than forecast
Types of movements significantly different to forecastTypes of movements significantly different to forecast
– Different airspace usageDifferent airspace usage
– Much greater number of low level movementsMuch greater number of low level movements
– Much wider distribution of traffic (more provincial airports and aerodromes)Much wider distribution of traffic (more provincial airports and aerodromes)
Environmental problemsEnvironmental problems
– NoiseNoise
– PollutionPollution
Slide 6 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001
Gridlock?Gridlock?
Use of larger number of airfields may be a problem or a Use of larger number of airfields may be a problem or a solutionsolution– distributed loaddistributed load– increased complexityincreased complexity
Volume of traffic may necessitate autonomous air traffic Volume of traffic may necessitate autonomous air traffic controlcontrol– executive control of speed, height and heading taken out of control of flight executive control of speed, height and heading taken out of control of flight
crewcrew– may be more acceptable to the ‘semi-skilled’ personal aviator than may be more acceptable to the ‘semi-skilled’ personal aviator than
commercial pilotscommercial pilots
Slide 7 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001
Areas of investigationAreas of investigation
Are the suggested trends already evident in GA?Are the suggested trends already evident in GA?
One air traffic system, or two operating in parallel?One air traffic system, or two operating in parallel?
Assuming a high level of automation, can we predict if the Assuming a high level of automation, can we predict if the ATM environment may be:ATM environment may be:
– intriniscally stableintriniscally stable
– intrinsically unstable (chaotic)intrinsically unstable (chaotic)
– intrinsically unsafeintrinsically unsafe