SQUIRREL-KILLERSUpdate Briefs #5, Part A

January 12, 2017

Dr. John F. Schunk, Editor

FIRST NEGATIVE BRIEFS01. I.S.I.S.02. MILITARY THREAT: Exaggerated03. RUSSIA-CHINA ALLIANCE04. TIBET

SECOND NEGATIVE BRIEFS05. BILATERAL INVESTMENT TREATY: SWEATSHOP Disad06. MILITARY AGGRESSION FROM WEAKNESS Disad07. TRUMP BLUNDERS Disad

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SK/UPDATE5-01. I.S.I.S.

1. THREAT OF ISLAMIC TERRORISM IS EXAGGERATED

SK/UP5-01.01) Andrew Stigler, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW, Winter 2016, p. 161, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Former U.S. intelligence officer Paul Pillar explores substate threats (including terror groups), asserting that America is too quick to seize on new threats. Since 9/11, more Americans have drowned in their bathtubs than have been killed in the United States by terrorist attacks, and improved security cannot account for the entirety of this disparity.

2. TERRORISM FROM WHITE SUPREMACISTS IS A GREATER THREAT

SK/UP5-01.02) Gardiner Harris & Michael D. Shear, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 7, 2015, p. A1, LexisNexis Academic. Indeed, the death toll from jihadist terrorism in the United States since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks -- 45 people -- is about the same as the 48 killed in terrorist attacks motivated by white supremacist and other right-wing extremist ideologies, according to New America, a research organization in Washington. And both tolls are a small fraction of the number of conventional murders, more than 200,000 in the same period.

SK/UP5-01.03) Scott Shane, THE NEW YORK TIMES, June 25, 2015, p. A1, LexisNexis Academic. In the 14 years since Al Qaeda carried out attacks on New York and the Pentagon, extremists have regularly executed smaller lethal assaults in the United States, explaining their motives in online manifestoes or social media rants. But the breakdown of extremist ideologies behind those attacks may come as a surprise. Since Sept. 11, 2001, nearly twice as many people have been killed by white supremacists, antigovernment fanatics and other non-Muslim extremists than by radical Muslims: 48 have been killed by extremists who are not Muslim, including the recent mass killing in Charleston, S.C., compared with 26 by self-proclaimed jihadists, according to a count by New America, a Washington research center.

3. CHINA IS ALREADY FIGHTING AGAINST I.S.I.S.

SK/UP5-01.04) Liu Zhen, SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, August 17, 2016, p. 6, LexisNexis Academic. The Chinese military will provide aid and training to the Syrian government under a deal reached between a Beijing envoy and Syria's defence minister in Damascus on Sunday. It is another step in Beijing's engagement in the Middle East after China named Xie Xiaoyan, former ambassador to Iran, as its special envoy to Syria in March.

SK/UP5-01.05) Liu Zhen, SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, August 17, 2016, p. 6, LexisNexis Academic. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said he will invite representatives of the Syrian government and opposition for talks to promote a political settlement. Since President Xi Jinping's visit to the Middle East at the start of the year, China has stepped up its presence to promote stability in the region. This includes a trip by Xie to Syria in April to meet the government as well as some representatives of the opposition.

SK/UP5-01.06) Editorial, SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, August 18, 2016, p. 2, LexisNexis Academic. China will be helping the Syrian government in its battle against insurgents under a deal reached between Beijing and Damascus on Sunday. This is another step forward in Beijing's engagement in the Middle East. The Chinese military delegation to Syria met their Syrian counterparts, Xinhua reported, and reached an agreement on how to improve personnel training, with the Chinese military also offering humanitarian aid.

4. SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IS BEING MADE AGAINST I.S.I.S.

SK/UP5-01.07) Eric Schmitt, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 26, 2016, p. A1, LexisNexis Academic. It was on a mission like this several weeks ago that analysts discovered a hiding place in the central Syrian desert where the Islamic State was stashing scores of oil tanker trucks that provide the terrorist group with a crucial financial lifeline. Acting on that tip and other intelligence, two dozen American warplanes destroyed 188 of the trucks in the biggest airstrike of the year, eliminating an estimated $2 million in oil revenue for the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Even as the American-led air campaign conducts bombing missions to support Iraqi troops fighting the Islamic State in Mosul, American commanders said the air war would probably play an even greater role in Syria over the coming weeks in the battle to retake Raqqa.

SK/UP5-01.08) Eric Schmitt, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 26, 2016, p. A1, LexisNexis Academic. The air operation is a pivotal component of a military campaign that has cost $12.5 million a day in Iraq and Syria. The effort has destroyed hundreds of tanks, artillery pieces, military vehicles, command centers and fighting positions, and killed more than 50,000 fighters, according to American estimates. Since the air war began in late summer 2014, American and allied aircraft have conducted about 17,000 strikes in both countries. The Islamic State has lost about half of the territory it seized in Iraq and Syria in 2014.

SK/UPDATE5-02. MILITARY THREAT: Exaggerated

1. CHINA DOES NOT POSE A MILITARY THREAT TO THE U.S.

SK/UP5-02.01) Andrew Stigler, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW, Winter 2016, p. 161, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Lyle Goldstein argues convincingly that the threat China poses to the United States is a limited one (he uses the memorable phrase "panda claws") and he claims China's rise can be countered with low-cost strategies. (As of this writing, recent devaluations of the yuan raise the possibility of a future Chinese retrenchment, further reducing the need for a potent American counter.)

SK/UP5-02.02) Andrew Stigler, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW, Winter 2016, p. 161, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. It is true that there are dangers in this world. But Preble and Muellers volume constitutes an antidote to America's tendency to imagine grave peril, and serves as an important counter to the American proclivity to overstate the benefits and understate the costs of an assertive global military posture. The editors argue that America is largely free of threats that require military preparedness or balancing behavior.

SK/UP5-02.03) Bruce W. MacDonald [Adjunct Professor, Johns Hopkins U. School of Advanced International Studies] & Charles D. Ferguson [President, Federation of American Scientists]. ARMS CONTROL TODAY, November 2015, p. 14, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In summary, Chinese deployment of a limited strategic missile defense system should be no cause for alarm by the United States and other countries.

2. CHINA HAS EASED TENSIONS WITH JAPAN

SK/UP5-02.04) Steven Schwanert, AMERICA, March 21, 2016, p. 12, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. While China continues to pump up public enmity toward Japan regarding unresolved issues from World War II, including the sovereignty of the Senkakus, it is doing so on a much smaller scale than even six months ago, when it declared a three-day public holiday to celebrate the end of the war and victory over the Japanese empire.

SK/UP5-02.05) THE ECONOMIST, November 7, 2015, p. 34(US), GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But America will also be relieved that China and Japan seem to be edging away from confrontation. They agreed to resume talks between their ministers for trade, finance and foreign affairs, suspended since 2010. Both realise the risks of a flare-up in the East China Sea, so they are working to manage their rivalries instead. Incursions by Chinese vessels into the waters surrounding the Senkaku islands continue. But they are calibrated and orchestrated.

3. CHINA HAS EASED TENSIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

SK/UP5-02.06) Eric Hyer [Associate Professor of Political Science, Brigham Young U.], WASHINGTON POST BLOGS, November 16, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. My research suggests China is more willing to compromise than we might expect. In recent weeks, Chinese coast guard vessels let Filipino fishermen return to the waters near Scarborough Shoal after boxing them out since 2012. Why the softer stance on the South China Sea now? For China, conceding smaller (and possibly less critical) territorial claims can serve Beijing's larger strategic interests. In fact, one analysis shows that Beijing compromised on a majority of its territorial disputes - often to improve ties with its neighbors.

4. CHINA WILL RETURN THE U.S. DRONE

SK/UP5-02.07) Jane Perlez & Matthew Rosenberg, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 17, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. The Pentagon on Saturday said that Beijing had agreed to return an underwater drone seized by China in international waters, an indication that the two countries were moving to resolve an unusual incident that risked sharpening tensions in the run-up to the inauguration of President-elect Donald J. Trump. "Through direct engagement with Chinese authorities, we have secured an understanding that the Chinese will return the U.U.V. to the United States," said Peter Cook, the Pentagon press secretary, using initials to refer to the Navy's unmanned underwater vehicle.

SK/UP5-02.08) Eileen Powell, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, December 17, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. China has now agreed to return a US submarine drone taken on Thursday, but the incident could be a harbinger of tense relations between the US and China under the new administration.

SK/UP5-02.09) Eileen Powell, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, December 17, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. China agreed on Saturday to return the drone, the Defense Ministry said on its website. "China decided to return it to the US side in an appropriate manner, and China and the US have all along been in communication about it," said a statement by China's defense ministry, according to Reuters and the Associated Press.

SK/UPDATE5-03. RUSSIA-CHINA ALLIANCE

1. RUSSIA AND CHINA HAVE A VERY WEAK ALLIANCE

SK/UP5-03.01) Fu Ying, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, January-February 2016, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Some scholars in China and elsewhere have suggested that if the United States insists on imposing bloc politics on the region, China and Russia should consider responding by forming a bloc of their own. But the Chinese leadership does not approve of such arguments. China does not pursue blocs or alliances, nor do such arrangements fit comfortably with Chinese political culture. Russia does not intend to form such a bloc, either.

SK/UP5-03.02) Andrew Higgins, THE NEW YORK TIMES, July 17, 2016, p. A6, LexisNexis Academic. The gulf between expectation and reality has become a recurring feature of Russia's relationship with China. After promises by leaders to increase trade between the nations to $100 billion by this year and $200 billion by 2020, for example, two-way trade volume slumped last year by 28 percent, to just $68 billion. It picked up a few percentage points in the first few months of this year. The sheen has also dulled on a 30-year gas deal estimated to be worth $400 billion when it was signed during a visit by Mr. Putin to China in May 2014. A pipeline that Russia needs to build to transport the gas has stalled.

SK/UP5-03.03) Andrew Higgins, THE NEW YORK TIMES, July 17, 2016, p. A6, LexisNexis Academic. Victor Larin, a leading Russian expert on China at the Far East branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Vladivostok, said Russia's fumbling of the bridge showed that parts of the country's elite remained in the grip of “the China threat syndrome.” He was referring to a deep-seated wariness in Russia of a neighbor whose population is nearly 10 times bigger, economy more than five times larger and military spending twice as large.

2. RUSSIA AND CHINA HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO EXPORT COMMUNISM

SK/UP5-03.04) Howard LaFranchi, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, October 25, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Moreover, China and Russia have been seeking to expand their influence for years - especially as America has withdrawn somewhat from its leading role. But the "authoritarian market state" has not drawn many converts, says Stefan Halper, a life fellow of Magdalene College at the University of Cambridge.

3. RUSSIA-CHINA MILITARY DRILLS ARE NOT A THREAT

SK/UP5-03.05) Jason Thomson, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, September 12, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Russia and China's military drills appear to be taking place in waters that are not specifically in dispute, and are not targeting a third party, Chinese officials say.

SK/UPDATE5-04. TIBET

1. TIBET WAS NEVER AN INDEPENDENT NATION

SK/UP5-04.01) Zeng Rong [spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in UK], THE GUARDIAN (United Kingdom), November 10, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Tibet has been part of China since ancient times. The Chinese central authorities have all along exerted indisputable and effective administration over Tibet since the beginning of the Yuan Dynasty (1271-1368). Tibet has never been an independent nation. No country in the world has ever acknowledged "Tibetan independence".

SK/UP5-04.02) Zeng Rong [spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in UK], THE GUARDIAN (United Kingdom), November 10, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. The 14th Dalai Lama, following his defection in 1959 out of opposition to the reform measure aimed to abolish serfdom that enslaved the local population, has no authority whatsoever to represent the people of Tibet, nor has he the right to decide the future and destiny of Tibet. As for the self-styled "government-in-exile", it has no recognition by any country in the world and is in essence an illegitimate political organisation engaged in secessionist activities.

SK/UP5-04.03) Austin Ramzy, THE NEW YORK TIMES, June 16, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. “Tibet, per U.S. policy, is considered part of the People's Republic of China,” Mr. Earnest [White House press secretary] said. “And the United States has not articulated our support for Tibetan independence.”

2. CHINA IS IMPROVING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN TIBET

SK/UP5-04.04) Zeng Rong [spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in UK], THE GUARDIAN (United Kingdom), November 10, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Until the mid-20th century, the social system of Tibet remained one of theocratic feudal serfdom, with an economy that was extremely underdeveloped, and a society that was closed and backward. Tibet today is embracing the modern world, having gone through peaceful liberation, democratic reform, establishment of the Tibet Autonomous Region, and economic reform and opening up.

SK/UP5-04.05) Palden Nyima & Da Qiong, CHINA DAILY, November 24, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. More than 20 new highways will be built in the Tibet autonomous region next year, with a total investment of more than 33 billion yuan ($5 billion), according to a senior transportation official.

SK/UP5-04.06) Palden Nyima & Da Qiong, CHINA DAILY, November 24, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Ge Yutao, head of the regional transportation authority, said more than 54 billion yuan in State funds and loans were spent on Tibet's transport infrastructure this year. "The total length of roads has reached 82,000 kilometers, and it's expected to reach 89,000 km next year," he said last week during the ninth regional Party congress. "Next year, we will finish constructing 864 km of highways and 5,500 km of rural roads, and reconstruct 4,310 km of national and provincial trunk highways."

SK/UP5-04.07) Palden Nyima & Da Qiong, CHINA DAILY, November 24, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Tibet has plans to build airports in densely populated and developed cities and prefectures, according to the work report. "The progress of an elaborate transportation system of highways, railways and air routes in the coming years will lay a foundation for Tibet to blend in with the Belt and Road Initiative," Wu said, referring to China's plan to improve global connectivity.

SK/UP5-04.08) Palden Nyima & Da Qiong, CHINA DAILY, November 24, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Xu Ance, an engineer with Qinghai-Tibet Railway Co, said the line has led to a boom in the region's social economic development. "Over the past 10 years, the number of tourists visiting Tibet has increased every year, while our passenger and cargo flow has grown annually, too," Xu said, adding that the line has made transporting basic goods, coal, cement and construction materials far more convenient.

SK/UPDATE5-05. BILATERAL INVESTMENT TREATY: SWEATSHOP Disad

A. CHINA WILL GAIN UNFAIR ADVANTAGE WITH B.I.T.

SK/UP5-05.01) Daniel C.K. Chow [Bayzler Chair in Business Law, Ohio State U.], NORTH CAROLINA JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LAW & COMMERCIAL REGULATION, 2016, LexisNexis Academic, p. 461. In addition, U.S. companies are often subject to restrictions contained in Bilateral Investment Treaties ("BIT") or Free Trade Agreements ("FTA") related to labor conditions, protection of the environment, and transparency in government. China's recent BITs and FTAs do not contain any provisions related to labor, the environment, or transparency, which allow SOEs [state-owned enterprises] to operate at a lower cost, and to set any conditions they wish on these matters. These provisions can give China's SOEs competitive advantages over U.S.-based MNCs doing business in foreign countries, especially developing countries.

B. CHINESE WORKERS WILL BE EXPLOITED

SK/UP5-05.02) Daniel C.K. Chow [Bayzler Chair in Business Law, Ohio State U.], NORTH CAROLINA JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LAW & COMMERCIAL REGULATION, 2016, LexisNexis Academic, pp. 486-487. Unlike the United States, which uses a standard model for its BITs [Bilateral Investment Treaties] and FTAs [Free Trade Agreements], China has no standard model. A notable feature of China's recent treaties is that, unlike U.S. trade treaties, China's treaties do not contain provisions related to workers' rights, labor conditions, or the environment. The lack of these constraints allows China's SOEs to incur fewer costs for compliance than MNCs from the United States, and the freedom to make their own decisions on labor conditions and impact on the environment.

SK/UP5-05.03) Li Chang'an [Professor of Management, University of International Business and Economics], CHINA DAILY, February 5, 2015, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Labor unions are supposed to help workers, but in reality they always fail in this duty. Worse, some of them even suppress workers' efforts to defend their rights. The root problem is almost all labor unions are organized by the local authorities, which share interests with companies; the heads of the unions, instead of being elected by workers, are also appointed by the authorities.

C. CHINESE SWEATSHOPS WILL INCREASE SUICIDES AND DESPAIR

SK/UP5-05.04) CHINA DAILY, February 5, 2015, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. The All-China Federation of Trade Unions recently published 10 cases of companies violating workers' rights. It especially criticized Foxconn, the largest device manufacturer in the world and one of the main iPhone and iPad manufacturers, for "arranging extra hours for workers" over long periods, which resulted in psychological problems, even suicides.

SK/UP5-05.05) Brian Reade, DAILY MIRROR (Northern Ireland], January 30, 2015, p. 8, LexisNexis Academic. You may have seen pictures of those Chinese sweatshops. They're the ones where Apple contractors have put nets outside the windows to cut down on the number of workers committing suicide.

SK/UPDATE5-06. MILITARY AGGRESSION FROM WEAKNESS Disad

A. WEAKENING CHINA WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AGGRESSION

SK/UP5-06.01) Robert D. Kaplan [Sr. Fellow, Center for a New American Security], FOREIGN AFFAIRS, March-April 2016, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. As China asserts itself in its nearby seas and Russia wages war in Syria and Ukraine, it is easy to assume that Eurasia's two great land powers are showing signs of newfound strength. But the opposite is true: increasingly, China and Russia flex their muscles not because they are powerful but because they are weak. Unlike Nazi Germany, whose power at home in the 1930s fueled its military aggression abroad, today's revisionist powers are experiencing the reverse phenomenon. In China and Russia, it is domestic insecurity that is breeding belligerence.

SK/UP5-06.02) Robert D. Kaplan [Sr. Fellow, Center for a New American Security], FOREIGN AFFAIRS, March-April 2016, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Slow growth is also leading China to externalize its internal weaknesses. Since the mid-1990s, Beijing has been building a high-tech military, featuring advanced submarines, fighter jets, ballistic missiles, and cyberwarfare units. Just as the United States worked to exclude European powers from the Caribbean Sea beginning in the nineteenth century, China is now seeking to exclude the U.S. Navy from the East China and South China Seas.

SK/UP5-06.03) Robert D. Kaplan [Sr. Fellow, Center for a New American Security], FOREIGN AFFAIRS, March-April 2016, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But as with Russia, China's aggression increasingly reflects its cresting power, as its economy slows after decades of acceleration. Annual GDP growth has dropped from the double-digit rates that prevailed for most of the first decade of this century to an official 6.9 percent in the third quarter of 2015, with the true figure no doubt lower. Bubbles in the housing and stock markets have burst, and other imbalances in China's overleveraged economy, especially in its shadow banking sector, are legion.

SK/UP5-06.04) Dan Blumenthal [Director of Asian Studies, American Enterprise Institute], COMMENTARY, June 2016, p. 22, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Under worsening economic conditions, can China be expected to sustain its national-security policy abroad, and for how long? So far there have been no signs of abatement in Beijing's policy of militarizing the South China Sea and challenging Japan in the East China Sea. Nor has the PRC displayed any inclination to deviate from its historical willingness to engage in adventurism during times of trouble, earlier instances of which reach back to Deng's post-Cultural Revolution attack on Vietnam and Mao's pre-Great Leap Forward bombardment of Taiwan's offshore islands.

SK/UP5-06.05) Keith Bradsher, THE NEW YORK TIMES, June 30, 2016, p. A17, LexisNexis Academic. Discouraging trade and investment could cause lower economic growth that might slow China's military rise but also might feed anti-Western sentiment and foster public demands for more assertive foreign policy.

B. INCREASED MILITARY AGGRESSION THREATENS U.S. SECURITY

SK/UP5-06.06) Ruchir Sharma [chief global strategist, Morgan Stanley Investment Management], THE NEW YORK TIMES, June 5, 2016, p. SR-4, LexisNexis Academic. China is now a threat to the United States not because it is strong but because it is fragile. Four key forces have been shaping the rise and fall of nations since the 2008 financial crisis, and none of them bode well for China. Debts have risen dangerously fast in the emerging world, especially in China. Trade growth has collapsed everywhere, a sharp blow to leading exporters, again led by China. Many countries are reverting to autocratic rule in an effort to fight the global slowdown, none more self-destructively than China. And, for reasons unrelated to the 2008 collapse, growth in the world's working-age population is slowing, and turned negative last year in China, depleting the work force.

SK/UP5-06.07) Robert Bebber [U.S. Cyber Command], inFOCUS, Summer 2015, p. 3, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. China has developed medium-range ballistic missiles, such as the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) designed to destroy American aircraft carriers from a range of 1,500 km.

SK/UP5-06.08) Bruce W. MacDonald [Adjunct Professor, Johns Hopkins U. School of Advanced International Studies] & Charles D. Ferguson [President, Federation of American Scientists], ARMS CONTROL TODAY, November 2015, p. 14, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. China faces a variety of incentives and disincentives for deploying a strategic missile defense system. Whether China would deploy such a system is unclear, but the very fact that such a decision is under consideration is telling and represents a major change over the last 10 years. At a minimum, it appears that a Chinese deployment of a missile defense system is probably less unlikely than most U.S. defense analysts have assessed it to be.

SK/UPDATE5-07. TRUMP BLUNDERS Disad

A. ENGAGEMENT WITH CHINA WILL TRIGGER TRUMP BLUNDERS

SK/UP5-07.01) Chris Buckley, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 19, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. "If Trump perceives that he is being challenged, he will probably instinctively not want to be seen as weak," said Bonnie S. Glaser, the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "It will be very messy if he decides to tweet or speak publicly in a crisis before he has all the intelligence and analysis necessary."

SK/UP5-07.02) Chris Buckley, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 19, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. "Xi Jinping is more measured in his public statements than Donald Trump, but the Chinese government will likely hit back quite forcefully against any radical efforts to challenge the status quo," Ms. Weiss [associate professor at Cornell University who studies Chinese foreign policy] said. "The best thing the president-elect's advisers can do for our national security is to screen Trump's tweets."

B. INFLAMMATORY RHETORIC WILL CRIPPLE U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS

SK/UP5-07.03) Chris Buckley, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 19, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Both came to power vowing to restore their nations to greatness. But America's loud, ad-libbing president-elect, Donald J. Trump, and China's guarded, calculating president, Xi Jinping, are glaring contrasts as politicians, and their pairing has injected new unpredictability into relations between their governments. "I could not think of two more different protagonists in the great drama of U.S.-China relations," Evan S. Medeiros, formerly the senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, said by email. "Personalities matter a lot in international relations, especially between great powers."

SK/UP5-07.04) Chris Buckley, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 19, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Mr. Trump has recently blared warnings at China, seemingly guided by visceral reflexes and a vague but bold set of demands. By contrast, Mr. Xi, the son of a Communist veteran, is disciplined and steely. He rarely speaks off the cuff in public. Even his seemingly impromptu gestures are often carefully choreographed, and he usually adheres to policy points when meeting foreign leaders. Mr. Xi is certainly capable of bold action, as he has shown in the South China Sea, but he tends to shroud his thinking in a cloud of slogans. That leaves outsiders guessing about when and how he will act on his demands. "The situation could become quite combustible," said Jessica Chen Weiss, an associate professor at Cornell University who studies Chinese foreign policy.

SK/UP5-07.05) Mark Landler, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 12, 2016, p. A 13, LexisNexis Academic. But as Mr. Trump has repeated his campaign criticisms of China -- and as his statements about Taiwan have rippled throughout the region -- Beijing has noticeably hardened its tone. It warned him last week, in a front-page editorial in the overseas edition of People's Daily, that “creating troubles for the China-U.S. relationship is creating troubles for the U.S. itself.”

SK/UP5-07.06) Chris Buckley, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 19, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. "Trump hits out with a hammer to the east and a club to the west, and his real thinking is very difficult to fathom," said the editorial in the overseas edition of the paper, People's Daily, using a Chinese saying that means to speak or act without rhyme or reason. China, it said, should "stay steady on its feet, keep a good grasp of developments, calmly respond, and that's it." But even China's calls for calm have barbs and caveats that could rile a Trump administration.

C. DETERIORATING RELATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DANGEROUS

SK/UP5-07.07) Chris Buckley, THE NEW YORK TIMES, December 19, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Experts disagreed over whether China's seizure of the submersible drone was intended as a signal to Mr. Trump, or even authorized by Mr. Xi. But Chinese decision makers probably took into account that Mr. Trump's team would read it as "a test and a warning," said Ni Lexiong, a naval affairs researcher at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law. "It would be impossible for China not to react to his provocations," Mr. Ni said by telephone. "Trump seems to want a foreign policy that keeps the other side guessing. But that way of working can easily lead to trouble."

SK/UP5-07.08) Andrew Higgins et al., THE NEW YORK TIMES, November 10, 2016, p. P1, LexisNexis Academic. Mr. Trump has openly questioned some of the basic tenets of America's role in the world. Now his election has stirred confidence in America's biggest rivals, Russia and China, that they will have more room to assert their own strategic interests, whether in Ukraine, the Baltics or the South China Sea. “A weakened and disorganized West like this will surely bring many more additional strategic opportunities for China,” said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University. Mr. Xi, who has been the strongest foreign policy president for China, will be further emboldened, Mr. Shi said, and will be “even less prudent” in his foreign policy.

SK/UP5-07.09) John Pomfret, THE WASHINGTON POST, December 6, 2016, p. A15, LexisNexis Academic. Today no senior member of the Democratic or Republican foreign-policy establishments would favor unification between China and Taiwan under the current configuration of the Chinese Communist Party. I worry that Trump's call and the media reaction could complicate these warming ties by encouraging China to punish Taiwan, which could then touch off a cascading series of moves and counter-moves leading to a dangerous outcome in Asia.