skills for the future the role of occupations in the skills supply and demand forecasts vladimir...

Skills for the future

The role of occupations in the skills supply and demand forecasts

Vladimir KvetanCedefop

InGRID Expert workshop New skills new jobs: Tools for harmonising the measurement of occupationsAmsterdam, 10-12 February 2014


Occupations in the forecasts

• Occupation as inputs

• Occupations as results

• Further focus on occupations


NA vs. LFS

• Where do you work? / Where do you live?

• better fit in models / more details

• statistical reports / survey data


NACE rev.2 and ISCO 08

• NACE – change in philosophy of sectors– new sectors (mainly 1 digit)– 2008 and 2009 data available for both

• ISCO– no time series intention– no transformation year (matrix)– timing of introduction


ISCO 08 regrouping ISCO 1: Managers, etc. Inclusions ExclusionsHealth service managers Shopkeepers (to Service workers)Elderly care managers Agricultural managers (to Agricultural workers(from Professionals) Film, TV, stage Directors (to Professionals)

Construction supervisors (to Associateprofessionals)

ISCO 2 ProfessionalsInclusions ExclusionsDecorators+commercial designers Health service managersHealth technicians, medical assistants, opticians Nursing professionals (to Associate professionals)

Primary+pre-primary teachers Business service agents (to Associateprofessionals)

Other teaching associate professionalsFinance dealers Technical+commercial sales repsClowns, musicians,acrobats (all from Associateprofessionals)


ISCO 08 regrouping (2)ISCO 8- Machine operators, assemblersInclusions Exclusions

Photographic machine operatorsManufacturing supervisors (to Associateprofessionals)

Weaving machine operators (from Skilled manual) Process controllers (to Associate professionals)

Print machine operatorsBook-binding machine operators (to Skilledmanual)Wood machine operators (to Skilled manual)

ISCO 9 – Elementary occupationsInclusions ExclusionsGardeners, nursery workers (from Agriculturalworkers)

Door-to-door+telephone sales persons,

Fast food preparers (from Service workers)Security guards (both to Sales and serviceworkers)


Employment shares by occupation

EU-27 (% total), 2008-2011

Source: Eurostat, ELFS


Employment shares for ISCO 1 by country

Source: Eurostat, ELFS


Two solutions

• Constant share of ISCO 08– relatively easy– not reflecting reality – constant shares in sectors

• Past trends continue– difficult task– trends and changing occupational structure– additional inputs from countries


Occupations as results• ISCO 08 • 30 countries, sectors, qualifications• Net change + replacement demand• Available online

– www.cedefop.europa.eu– main results and detailed data

http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/


Occupations as results


Occupation skills profiles• Coordination characteristics

– level of qualification requirement– field of study

• Main characteristics– knowledge– skills – competences

• Supplementary characteristics– occupaitonal interests– working values


Qualifications cross sectors

Source: Cedefop, OSP workbooks (2014)


Qualifications in jobs

Source: Cedefop, OSP workbooks (2014)


Thank you for your attentionVladimir Kvetan

More information:www.cedefop.europa.eu

[email protected]

skills for the future the role of occupations in the skills supply and demand forecasts vladimir...

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