skf internet presentation q42009
TRANSCRIPT
28 January 2010
0
The SKF Group
Year-end results 2009
Tom Johnstone, President and CEO
28 January 2010
2Key points, full-year report
• Strong cash flow
Q4: SEK 1,445 m Full year: SEK 5,752 m
• Dramatic volume drop year over yearImproving trend sequentially during second half
Q4: -14.1% Full year: -24.3%
• Positive price/mix
Q4: 0.3% Full year: 4.3%
• Capacity adjustments and cost reduction efforts giving results
- significant short-time working being utilized, December 13,000 people- reduction of 4,900 people since Q3 2008 (whereof 3,800 in 2009)- annualised savings from all programmes, around SEK 1,050 million
• Demand outlook for Q1
- year over year: slightly higher- sequentially: slightly higher
28 January 2010
3New businesses, some examples
• A Memorandum of Understanding for strategic partnership signed with Sinovel Wind Co. Ltd.
• A five year condition based maintenance contract with TotalE&P UK for providing condition based maintenance services.
• A service contract with Transocean that covers asset reliability services for 59 of Transocean's drilling rigs.
• A long-term contract for the supply of bearings to Hero Honda of India.
• An order for axleboxes and drive system bearings to CSR Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Co., Ltd. ZELC.
28 January 2010
4Investing in knowledge 2009
• Agreement with Ricardo to develop energy-efficient solutions.
• Contract signed with Cambridge University to set up a SKF University Technology Centre (UTC) on steels and also withImperial College London to set up a SKF UTC on tribology.
• Seven new SKF Solution Factories opened around the world.
• A SKF Global Testing Centre inaugurated in Bengaluru, India.
• Expanded range of sealed spherical roller bearings.
• More than 20 new market offers.
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5Sales volume
-35-30-25
-20-15-10-5
05
10% change y-o-y
2008 20092007
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6Sales in local currencies (excl. structural changes)
-30-25-20
-15-10-50
51015
% change y-o-y
2007 2008 2009
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7Growth in local currency(Organic growth + acquisition/divestments)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009
% y-o-y
13.2%
Organic growth
Long-term target level: 6-8% per annum
7.1%-19.0%
Acquisitions/Divestments
28 January 2010
8Growth development by geographyLocal currency 2009 vs 2008
Eastern Europe -20%
Western Europe-26%
Asia/Pacific -6%
Latin America -2%
Middle East & Africa +3%
North America -18%
28 January 2010
9Components in net sales
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
-30.8 -24.9
1.2
3.7
-20.0
6.6
-13.4
1.1
5.6
-24.1
12.2
-11.9
-26.9
1.4
7.1
-18.4
13.6
-4.8
-13.0
2.4
8.5
-2.1
10.3
8.2
2.7
0.5
6.4
9.6
-0.9
8.7
6.2
1.3
4.0
11.5
-4.1
7.4
4.9
1.0
3.8
9.7
-1.2
8.5
6.3
1.0
3.2
10.5
-2.0
8.5
9.0
3.7
2.0
14.7
-1.9
12.8
6.9
4.6
2.7
14.2
-2.3
11.9
7.9
4.0
1.8
13.7
-5.6
8.1
Q4
-14.1
0.4
0.3
-13.4
-1.4
-14.8
Percent y-o-y
Volume
Structure
Price / Mix
Sales in local currency
Currency
Net sales
2007 20092008
28 January 2010
10Operating profit
0200400600800
1 0001 2001 4001 6001 8002 0002 200SEKm
2007 2008 2009
Restructuring and one-time items
28 January 2010
11Operating margin
% Long-term target level: 12%
2008 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007
Restructuring and one-time items
28 January 2010
12Operating margin
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2008 2009
%
12.9 12.2
Long-term target level: 12%
5.7
13.3* 12.7*
8.0*
Restructuring and one-time items
* Excluding restructuring and one-time items
28 January 2010
13Operating margin per division
-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
1012141618
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Industrial
Service
Automotive
%
2007 2008
Excluding one-off items (eg. restructuring, impairments, capital gains)
2009
28 January 2010
14Activities to adapt to lower demand
• Cost and restructuring programmes People Costs charged to
operating profit
Q4 2008 2,500 SEK 340 mQ1 2009 500 SEK 175 mQ2 2009 900 SEK 500 mQ3 2009 70 SEK 200 mQ4 2009 450 SEK 400 m
4,420 SEK 1,615 m
December 2009, around 4,900 people had left the Group since the third quarter 2008, of which around 2,800 people under the programmes.When fully, implemented total savings from these activities will be around SEK 1,050 m.
• Around 13,000 people in short-time working December 2009.
28 January 2010
15Fourth quarter 2009
SEKm 2009 2008
Net sales 13,887 16,307
Operating margin excl. restructuring, % 10.1% 11.0%
Cash flow after investments before financial items
1,445 -150
Operating margin, % 7.2% 8.9%
Operating profit 1,004* 1,450
Profit before taxes 765 1,107
Net profit 505 819
Basic earnings per share, SEK 1.05 1.75
* Q4 restructuring around SEK 400 mOperating profit excl. restructuring activities SEK 1,404 m
28 January 2010
16Full year 2009
SEKm 2009 2008
Net sales 56,227 63,361
Operating margin excl. restructuring, % 8.0% 12.7%
Cash flow after investments before financial items
5,752 65
Operating margin, % 5.7% 12.2%
Operating profit 3,203* 7,710
Profit before taxes 2,297 6,868
Net profit 1,705 4,741
Basic earnings per share, SEK 3.61 10.14
* 2009 restructuring around SEK 1,275 mOperating profit excl. restructuring activities SEK 4,478 m
28 January 2010
17Inventories as % of annual sales
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25%
2007
Long-term target level: 18%
2008 2009
28 January 2010
18Cash flow, after investments before financial items
-1 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500SEKm
Cash out fromacquisitions* (SEKm):
2007 1,2092008 1,2842009 241
20092007 2008
* including non-controlling interests.
28 January 2010
19Return on capital employed
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009
ROCE: Operating profit plus interest income, as a percentage of twelve months average of total assets less the average of non-interest bearing liabilities.
%Long-term target level: 24%
24.9 24.0
9.1
28 January 2010
20Net debt(Short-term financial assets minus loans and post-employment benefits)
-18 000
-16 000
-14 000
-12 000
-10 000
-8 000
-6 000
-4 000
-2 000
0
SEKm
AB SKF, dividend paid (SEKm):2007 Q2 2,0492008 Q2 2,2772009 Q2 1,594
Redemption (SEKm):2007 Q2 4,5542008 Q2 2,277
2007 2008 2009
28 January 2010
21Debt structure
Amount in million Maturity
Euro Bond EUR 132 2010-06
SEK Bond SEK 556*) 2011-06
Term loan in euro EUR 150 2013-06
Euro Bond EUR 400**) 2013-12
Euro loans EUR 130 2014-03
Euro loan EUR 100 2016-06
After early repurchase in Q4 2009 of:*) SEK 944 million**) EUR 100 million
28 January 2010
22Key focus areas ahead 2009
• Profit and cash flow- maintain positive price/mix- drive operational efficiency and cost reduction- reduce working capital and investments
• Adjustment of manufacturing output to new demand levels- restructuring- short-time working
• Growing segments and geographies
• Strengthening the platform/segment approach
• Competence development
SKF Care and Six Sigma as guiding lights
28 January 2010
23Key focus areas ahead 2009
• Profit and cash flow- maintain positive price/mix- drive operational efficiency and cost reduction- reduce working capital and investments
• Adjustment of manufacturing output to new demand levels- restructuring- short-time working
• Growing segments and geographies
• Strengthening the platform/segment approach
• Competence development
SKF Care and Six Sigma as guiding lights
28 January 2010
24SKF capital structure
The AB SKF Board proposes the Annual General Meeting to decide on:
• a dividend of SEK 3.50 per share
• a mandate to the Board to repurchase a maximum of 5% of the company's own shares
28 January 2010
25Volume trends(based on current assumptions)
Daily volume trends for: Q4 2009 Q1 2010
Total
6%Latin America
23%Asia Pacific
17%North America
51%Europe
Net sales2009
+
+++
+++
-
-
Outlook Q12010 vs 2009
28 January 2010
26Sequential volume trend main segments Q1 2010(based on current assumptions)
7%
14%
11%
7%
5%
22%
16%
12%
3%
3%
Aerospace
Cars
Industrial OEM, Heavy+Off-highway
Energy
Railway
Industrial distribution
Industrial OEM, General+Special
Vehicle Service Market
Trucks
Electrical and two-wheeler
Net sales 2009
28 January 2010
27Volume trends, Divisions(based on current assumptions)
Daily volume trends for Q1 2010
Net sales2009
Industrial 34%
Service 35%
Automotive 29%
Total +
+++
+
---
Outlook Q12010 vs 2009
28 January 2010
28December 2009: Outlook for the first quarter 2010
Sales development compared to first quarter last yearThe demand for SKF products and services is expected to be slightly higher for the Group in total. In Europe and North America it is expected to be slightly lower and in Asia and Latin America significantly higher. It is expected to be significantly lower for the Industrial Division, slightly higher for the Service Division and significantly higher for the Automotive Division.
Sales development compared to the fourth quarter 2009The demand is expected to be slightly higher for the SKF Group in total. It is expected to be slightly higher in Europe, Asia and Latin America and relatively unchanged in North America. For the Industrial Division it is expected to be relatively unchanged, and slightly higher for both the Service Division and Automotive Division.
Manufacturing levelThe manufacturing level will be higher year on year and slightly higher compared to the fourth quarter 2009.
28 January 2010
29Guidance for the first quarter 2010
• Tax level: around 30%
• Financial net for the first quarter:Around SEK -175 million
• Exchange rates on operating profit versus 2009Q1: SEK -175 millionFull year: SEK -400 million
• Additions to PPE: Around SEK 1.5 billion for 2010
Guidance is approximate and based on current assumptions and exchange rates.
28 January 2010
30Key focus areas ahead 2010
• Profit and cash flow
• Adjustment of manufacturing output to new demand levels
• Growing segments and geographies
• Strengthening the platform/segment approach
• Competence development
SKF Care and Six Sigma as guiding lights
28 January 2010
31SKF Care
Employee Care
Community CareEnvironmental Care
Business Care
BeyondZeroTM
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
SKF Care
Operating margin
28 January 2010
32SKF Group Vision
To equip the worldwith SKF knowledge
28 January 2010
33Cautionary statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on the
current expectations of the management of SKF.
Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-
looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such
expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ
materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements as a result of,
among other factors, changes in economic, market and competitive conditions,
changes in the regulatory environment and other government actions, fluctuations
in exchange rates and other factors mentioned in SKF's latest annual report
(available on www.skf.com) under the Administration Report; “Important factors
influencing the financial results", "Financial risks" and "Sensitivity analysis”.
28 January 2010
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