sj 5121 - transport and society - part2

8/7/2019 SJ 5121 - Transport and Society - Part2

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Transport & the Society(Transportation, Land Use,and the Environment)

Kuliah ke - 1SJ5121 Rekayasa Lalu Lintas

Harun alRasyid Lubis

Program Magister Sistem & Teknik Jalan Raya ITB



Background of developmentBackground of development

Automobile industry Automobile industry

UrbanizationUrbanization

Environmentalism (green transportation systemEnvironmentalism (green transportation systemand sustainable development concept)and sustainable development concept)

Computer and ITS (Intelligent TransportationComputer and ITS (Intelligent Transportation

SystemSystem



OUTLINEOUTLINE

Consumer oriented economy via logistics andConsumer oriented economy via logistics and

automotive industry & toll road industry automotive industry & toll road industry Land use & Urban formLand use & Urban formRoles of Public TransportRoles of Public TransportTrasnportTrasnport and the environmentand the environmentAdmin , Planning and Funding Admin , Planning and Funding

Intro to Traffic Engineering Intro to Traffic Engineering



Consumer oriented economyConsumer oriented economy

Driver 1: The consumer goods industry and

retail tradeDriver 2: The automobile industry



5

The following chart depicts the main elements of a consumer oriented

economy with the dominant consumer good industry, the automobile industry, the network ofexpressways and the traffic of cars and trucks on these. The so-called heavy industries,namely coal and steel production, and transportation by railroad play only a minor role.

If we take the elements of the consumer good industry, automobile industry, truck transport,

and expressway network altogether, we derive the following theorem:The consumer oriented economy relies heavily on high performance logistics and vice versa:There is no high performance logistics without a consumer oriented economy.(This theorem can be supported by the comparison of a consumer oriented economy with acommunist economy).

MarketEconomy

Railroad

HeavyIndustry

Expressways

Trucks ConsumerIndustry

Cars

The Structure of the Consumer oriented Economy



6

The consumer oriented economy as driver towards high performance logistics:Driver 1: The consumer goods industry and retail tradeDriver 2: The automobile industry

Both industries have faced a strong differentiation and diversification of their products

since 1950 (in the US 30 years former), called mass customization,imposing a high load on logistic services in the procurement of material andin the distribution of finished goods into the retail outlets.

Think of the 20 yards of shelve space filled with cereals in your shopping mall.

The Consumer Oriented Economy



7

The development in the distribution of consumer goods 1950 - 2000 inducing transportatiForming chains in the retail trade.Establishing distribution systems with central warehouses and regional warehouses.Synchronizing marketing actions with the punctual delivery of goods to the outlets.

The development of the automobile industry 1950 - 2000 inducing transportation:Outsourcing of production steps to suppliers.

Outsourcing of warehouse operations to logistic companies.Supply with material by the just-in-time-concept where speed and quality is necessary.Spread of plant locations in Europe and all over the world - globalization.

Consumer Goods and Automobile Industry



8

Locations of General Motors in Europe



9

Iconografic Cars of Mass Motorization in Europe

Fiat 500 in 1957

Volkswagen in 1948

Citroen 2CV in 1948

One important aspect of the consumer oriented economy is Mass motorization.It started in Europe in the 1950s (30 years after it began in the US).



ToyotaToyota ’’s Global Strategys Global Strategy ——MovingMoving

Toward Global MotorizationToward Global Motorization

With a long recession after the burst of theWith a long recession after the burst of the

bubblebubble --economy and a yen appreciationeconomy and a yen appreciationsince 1993, the Japanese automobile industrysince 1993, the Japanese automobile industry

is at turning point for strategic businessis at turning point for strategic businessplanning.planning.



ToyotaToyota ’’s Global Strategys Global Strategy ——MovingMoving

Toward Global MotorizationToward Global MotorizationCore to the industry's strategy are:Core to the industry's strategy are:― ― Restructuring domestic business contents andRestructuring domestic business contents and

systems.systems.― ― Strengthening overseas production.Strengthening overseas production.― ― Establishing a global strategy through theEstablishing a global strategy through the

formation of worldwide networks for overseasformation of worldwide networks for overseas

production and business bases.production and business bases.



ToyotaToyota ’’s Global Strategys Global Strategy

Toyota Motor Corporation is the third largestToyota Motor Corporation is the third largest

automaker in the world.automaker in the world.Global sales of its Toyota and Lexus brands,Global sales of its Toyota and Lexus brands,

combined with those of Daihatsu and Hino,combined with those of Daihatsu and Hino,totaled 6.16 million units in the 2002 calendartotaled 6.16 million units in the 2002 calendaryear.year.




As of March 2003, Toyota:As of March 2003, Toyota:― ―

Operated its own 12 plants and 11 manufacturing Operated its own 12 plants and 11 manufacturing subsidiaries and affiliates in Japan,subsidiaries and affiliates in Japan,― ― Collaborated with 45 manufacturing companies inCollaborated with 45 manufacturing companies in

26 countries and regions, which produce Lexus26 countries and regions, which produce Lexus

--

and Toyotaand Toyota --brand vehicles and components,brand vehicles and components,employs 264,096 people worldwideemploys 264,096 people worldwide

― ― Markets vehicles in more than 140 countries andMarkets vehicles in more than 140 countries andregions.regions.




― ― Automotive business, including salesAutomotive business, including sales

finance, accounts for more than 90%finance, accounts for more than 90%of the company's total sales.of the company's total sales.― ―

Toyota also has a growing portfolio of Toyota also has a growing portfolio of diversified operations, with ventures indiversified operations, with ventures intelecommunications, prefabricatedtelecommunications, prefabricated

housing and leisure boats.housing and leisure boats.



Global Vision for 2010Global Vision for 2010



Technology StrategyTechnology Strategy



Global Scale MotorizationGlobal Scale Motorization



Profit EarningsProfit Earnings



Toyota Production System (TPS)Toyota Production System (TPS)

Main Features of TPS:Main Features of TPS:― ― Greater Product Variety Greater Product Variety ― ― Fast Response (Flexibility)Fast Response (Flexibility)― ―

Stable Production SchedulesStable Production Schedules

― ― Supply Chain IntegrationSupply Chain Integration― ― Demand ManagementDemand Management



ComesComes…… the Toll road industry the Toll road industry



23

The automobile lobby put strong pressure on European governments to improve roadsand to build a network of expressways to attain quick and safe traffic.

Automobile Lobby



24

A network of expressways in Europe

In the table, data on the growth of expressway networks in France, Great Britain,Italy and West Germany between 1960 to 1990 are shown. France and Great Britain

started from a low level in the 1960s to build expressways whereas Italy and

West Germany started already from a high level due to certain programs

in the fascist era before 1945.

Table: Length (km) of expressways

Country Germany France Italy UK

Year

1960 2671 174 1065 2021970 6061 1533 3913 1183

1980 9225 5264 5900 26831990 10809 6824 6193 3180



Land Use, Urban form and regionalLand Use, Urban form and regional

developmentdevelopment



The City in Development – Two Core Phenomena

Urbanization -strongly correlated with income

growth – particularly as countries move from low tomiddle income levels–

Suburbanization – spreading out of cities andreduction in population densities

–

– The larger the city, the more sub-centers – “polycentric”

Linked to industrialization, economies of scale and

agglomeration, educational and social desires, etc.

Driven by rich and poor settlements alike, influenced by changes in land useallowances (agricultural conversion), infrastructure investments, consumerdesires, economic realities (lower land and development costs), motorization



World Urbanization Trends

Total population (billions)

World

More developed regions

Less developed regions

Urban population (billions)

World

More developed regions

Less developed regions

Source: UNPD, World Urbanization Prospects: the 1999 Revision



S b b i i i j l



Suburbanization is not just people

Satellite cities, industrial parks, office parksfollowing people, infrastructure and land

prices- Increased mobility/telecoms feed the process as

micro-scale agglomeration economies weakenand other factors (additional space, freewayaccess) play a role

-

Manufacturing increasingly on outskirts andhighly mobile – 3-5% annual mobility rates(Ingram)



The “Developing City”Often high concentration of national population,economic activity, motor vehiclesInadequate transportation infrastructure – shortfalls,poor maintenance, poor management

Weak/unclear institutional, fiscal and regulatorystructures at metropolitan levelIn comparison to “Industrialized City”

–

–

Greater income disparities, larger relative number ofpoor, greater social needs and fewer public resourcesHigher population densities, lower road network

densities, fewer motor vehicles per capita



The City, Accessibility, MobilityAccessibility: “The potential for spatial interactionwith various desired social and economicopportunities” – What we want

Mobility: the ability to move between differentMobility: the ability to move between differentplaces (overcome distance); key for enhancingplaces (overcome distance); key for enhancing(firms(firms ’’ & individuals& individuals ’’) accessibility) accessibility

Higher accessibility is almost always better;Higher accessibility is almost always better;higher mobility depends on net contribution tohigher mobility depends on net contribution toaccessibilityaccessibility



The City, Accessibility, Mobility



Land Use, Transport, Accessibility

Distribution of jobs, residences, schools, etc. defines a city ’spotential accessibility

– Determines virtually all transportation activity – In developing world, particularly crucial, due to lower generallevels of individual mobility

“Stylized” developing country traits – Metro level– Historic concentration of trip attractions in city

center

– High densities– Socio-economic and functional segregation, forcing

long trips for poor, often isolated on the urban fringe



Land Use, Transport, Accessibility

Densities, local distribution of land uses, “design”factors (street design, layout)– Unclear impact on trip frequency, distance, modeDensity shown to influence travel (Newman &Kenworthy, Pickrell)– But, difficult to isolate other influencing factors

Household size, relative travel costs, socioeconomic factors

– Lack of underlying microeconomic behavior theory– Few “generalizable” influences;– Little, if any, work specific to developing country cities



Transport, Land Use, Accessibility

Transport system performance effects an area’srelative accessibility (attractiveness)

– Open up new areas for developmenti.e., urban fringe highway

– Facilitate densificationi.e., a center city metro

Also influences other attractivenesscharacteristics– Noise, pollution, safety risks

Do “highways cause sprawl”?– Ultimate effects depend on households/firms relativesensitivity to transport costs

Urban Transport’s “Vicious or



Urban Transport s Vicious or

virtuous” CycleTransportation – Providing Access

• Facilitate movement of goodsand services• Improves accessibility to work,education, etc.



Growth in Motor Vehicle Fleets /Ownership

MotorizationMotorization – – Growth in Motor VehicleGrowth in Motor VehicleFleetsFleetsMotorization RateMotorization Rate – – Motor Vehicles perMotor Vehicles percapita (typically expressed vehicles/1000capita (typically expressed vehicles/1000

population)population)― ― Gross indicator of vehicle ownership levelsGross indicator of vehicle ownership levels

Both are strongly correlated to incomeBoth are strongly correlated to income



Motorization Rate & Income

Time-series and cross-section econometric models(i.e., using income per capita, vehicles per capita,and often other variables) across many countries orone country in time (see, especially, Ingram & Liu)– Income per capita shown to be highly significant (T-stat)– Income shown to account for typically 70-90% of private

vehicle motorization rate (r-squared)– Income elasticities (“stylized” facts):

Long run (cross-section) elasticities typically greater than 1National level elasticities are higher than urban-level elasticitiesPassenger vehicle elasticities are larger than commercial vehicle elasticities



Developing Country Motorization Rate Increase



Developing World Urban Motorization Rates

But Income Does not explain



But, Income Does not explain

everythingPrices, taxes, policies, public transportprovision, land uses, culture, etc.– For example, same motorization rate seen in:

Morocco, Chile , Mauritius, Hong Kong

Argentina, KoreaPoland, IsraelMexico, Singapore



Perspectives on Motorization

Anthropological – auto as status symbolPolitical – freedom & privacyEconomic – rational economic decisionSociological (Vasconcellos, 1997)

– Middle class reproduction, effects onconsumption/lifestyle patterns and

subsequent space and transport outcomes

Income & Accessibility -The



co e & ccess b ty e

Demand for Trips



ROLES of Public Transport ImportantROLES of Public Transport ImportantTransport and the environmentTransport and the environment

A bili V PT P f



Automobility Vs. PT Performance

A t B A t T l S d



Auto Bus vs. Auto –– Travel Speeds

G th f th “I f l” S t



Minibuses, shared sedans, vans, etc. illegal or licensedbut with little regulatory effort or power

― Mexico City, Lima, Recife (Brazil), San Jose (CostaRica), etc.

Combination of initiating factors:― Liberalization of the public transport market, scarce alternative

employment opportunities, public sector employment restructuring(Peru), institutional weaknessPositive Impacts

― Employment, fill demand with “door to door” service

Negative Impacts― System-wide effects (congestion, pollution), political

clout, unsafe on-road competition

Growth of the “Informal” Sector

“Informal” Sector Informal” Sector



Rio– Kombis: complementary service in

inaccessible areas– 14-seater “luxury ” vehicles: competing express

service– Fares 2 to 3 times equivalent bus fare– Early 1990s, 600 vehicles; today, 6,000 to 9,000– Buses have responded to competition, diversifying

operations and adding amenities (i.e., A/C)

The Rise of the “Informal” Sector in



Mexico City

Urban Rail Transit



Urban Rail Transit

Metros, suburban rail, light railMetros, suburban rail, light rail

Typically the exception in developing cities,Typically the exception in developing cities,including Latin Americaincluding Latin America– – High capital costs, lack of flexibility inHigh capital costs, lack of flexibility in

adapting to changing travel patterns,adapting to changing travel patterns,long construction timeslong construction times

– – Still, often highly prized as visible,Still, often highly prized as visible,““modernmodern ”” solutions to transport problemssolutions to transport problems

Suburban Rail in Latin America



Suburban Rail in Latin AmericaSuburban Rail in Buenos Aires, Santiago, SãoPaulo, Rio, and several other Brazilian cities

Buenos Aires– 7 lines, 840 kms, 8% of trips

Rio– 264 kms, 2% of trips

São Paulo– 6 lines, 270 kms, 2% of trips

Santiago– 1 line, 85 kms, <<0.3% of trips

Metros in Latin America



Metros in Latin America

Metros



Metros

High CapacityHigh Capacity – – 60Passengers/Hr/Direction60Passengers/Hr/Direction

High CostHigh Cost --$40$40 --$150 mn./Km$150 mn./KmCapital Costs rarely if ever recoveredCapital Costs rarely if ever recoveredOperating Revenues/Operating costsOperating Revenues/Operating costs – – ““FareboxFareboxRatioRatio ”” (in 1990)(in 1990)― ― Mexico City, Rio, São Paulo < 1Mexico City, Rio, São Paulo < 1― ― Santiago > 1.5Santiago > 1.5― ― Policy outcome, planning outcome, operationsPolicy outcome, planning outcome, operations

outcome?outcome?

Towards sustainable development with UN



Sustainable development and transport :•Transport is essential for today's society•Today’s transport sector is very harmful to health, safety and

environment• I.e. transport causes 20% of the global CO2-emissions*, and it is at thesame time one of the sectors where CO2- emissions increase the most.

Mobility and economical growth are walking hand in hand.We cannot stop the process, but we need to plan and develop a moresustainable mobility

Sustainable transport systems are needed and they have to bebased on railways as the backbone

UN should place TRANSPORT higher at its agenda !*International Energy Agency

sj 5121 - transport and society - part2

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