Size, Growth and Composition of Adolescent and Youth Population in India

by

Dr. Sanjay KumarNational Programme Officer,

UNFPA-India, New Delhi

COMMEMORATING WORLD POPULATION DAY 2014Vigyan Bhawan, New Delhi

July 17, 2014

The adolescent and the youth population constitute a critical segments, as the future demographic, social, economic and political development depends on them

Therefore, investing in them seems to be the best way to leverage the nation’s competitive advantage for reaping the benefits of the demographic dividend

Relevance

Definition Different countries define adolescent and youth differently.

The lower bound ranges from 12 (Jamaica) to 18 (Bangladesh). The upper bound ranges from 24 (Jamaica) to even 35 or 40 (Kenya, Pakistan).

While there are no universally accepted definitions of adolescents and youth, for statistical purposes, without prejudice to other definitions by Member States, the United Nations considers –

Adolescent Population: 10 – 19 Years

Youth Population: 15 – 24 Years

Overlapping age category of 15 – 19 years

Outline of the Presentation Trends in size and % of Adolescents and youth population

Global perspective, India and its States

Future prospects of adolescent and youth population

Composition of adolescent and youth population by Gender Place of Residence Social groups

Summing up

253 million Adolescent population of India is more than the total population of 18 Western Asian Countries in 2011

Adolescent population

ArmeniaAzerbaijanBahrainCyprusGeorgiaIraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaState of PalestineSyrian Arab RepublicTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesYemen

Western Asia

(236 million)

Source: Census of India, 2011, UN World Population Prospects, 12th Revision

232 million Youth population of India is nearly equal to the total

population of 18 Western Asian Countries in 2011

Youth population

ArmeniaAzerbaijanBahrainCyprusGeorgiaIraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaState of PalestineSyrian Arab RepublicTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesYemen

Western Asia

(236 million)

Source: Census of India, 2011, UN World Population Prospects, 12th Revision

~

Sl World / Countries Total Pop Adolescent Population Youth Population

Numbers % Numbers %

World 6916 1198 17.3 1223 17.7

Adolescent and Youth Population: Global Perspective2010 (Million)

1 China 1359 191 14.1 242 17.8

2 India 1205 236 19.6 229 19.0

3 United States of America 312 43 13.8 43 14.14 Indonesia 240 43 18.0 40 16.8

5 Brazil 195 33 17.3 33 17.2

6 Pakistan 173 39 23.1 37 21.5

7 Nigeria 159 35 22.3 30 19.2

8 Bangladesh 151 32 21.3 30 20.3

9 Russian Federation 143 15 10.6 21 14.8

10 Japan 127 11 9.4 12 10.1

Around 36% of the world’s adolescents and 38% of its youth reside in China and India The proportion of adolescents population in India is higher than China

Source: UN World Population Prospects, 12th Revision

Annual Growth Rate of Adolescent Population in Selected Countries (percent), 2000-2010

Nigeria

Pakistan

India

Bangladesh

USA

WORLD

Indonesia

Brazil

Japan

China

Russian Federation

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

2.221.55

0.680.54

0.45-0.01-0.04

-0.53-1.57

-2.36-4.61

The highest negative annual growth rate during 2000-2010 was recorded in Russian Federation, followed China, Japan and Brazil

Nigeria and Pakistan recorded highest annual growth rate

Annual Growth Rate of Youth Population in Selected Countries (percent), 2000-2010

PakistanNigeriaChinaIndiaWORLDBangladeshUSABrazilIndonesiaRussian FederationJapan

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

2.72.12

1.771.231.18

1.050.97

-0.31-0.52

-0.83-2.11

Among youth population, Japan recorded the highest negative growth rate Similar to the case of adolescents growth rate, Pakistan and Nigeria had the highest

growth of young population during 2000-2010

Future Prospects of Adolescents and Youth Population, India and China, 2010 - 2050

2010 2015 2030 2050Adolescent Population (Million)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

191161

175

139

237 241 238219

China India

2010 2015 2030 2050% of Adolescent Population

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

14.1

11.5 12.110.0

19.6 18.8

16.1

13.5

China India

2010 2015 2030 2050% of Youth Population

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

17.8

13.612.0

10.0

19.0 18.316.1

13.8

China India

Adolescents Youth

2010 2015 2030 2050Youth Population (Million)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

242

190175

139

229 234 237 224

China India

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20110

50

100

150

200

250

300

85116

150178

250 253

7391

121

154

190

232

Adolescents Youth

Growth of Adolescent and Youth Population in India, 1961 - 2011

Decades Adolescents Youth

1971-81 33.8 30.9

1981-91 27.7 32.0

1991-2001 47.7 36.5

2001-1011 28.2 42.0

Adolescent population has increased from 85 million in 1961 to 253 million in 2011 (in five decades)

Corresponding increase in youth population is from 73 million to 232 million during this period

Net additions during successive Census years

Unlike the decrease in the net addition of adolescent population during the last decade, the net addition of youth population in each subsequent decades has always been higher since 1961

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20110

5

10

15

20

25

30

19.421.2

22.621.2 21.9 20.9

16.7 16.518.3 18.3 18.5 19.2

Adolescents Youth

Trends in Percentage of Adolescent and Youth Population in India, 1961 - 2011

Since 1971, the proportion of adolescent population has remained around 21%

The proportion of youth population has increased steadily from 16.7% in 1961 to 19.2% in 2011

Rank States Adolescent Population

% to Total Population

States Youth Population

% to Total Population

INDIA 253.2 100 INDIA 231.9 100

1 Uttar Pradesh 48.9 19.3 Uttar Pradesh 40.6 17.5

2 Bihar 23.3 9.2 Maharashtra 21.7 9.4

3 Maharashtra 21.3 8.4 West Bengal 17.8 7.7

4 West Bengal 18.2 7.2 Bihar 17.5 7.6

5 Andhra Pradesh 16.2 6.4 Andhra Pradesh 16.2 7.0

Adolescent and Youth Population: State Ranking, 2011 (Million)

Uttar Pradesh ranks first in terms of both adolescent and youth population in the country, accounting for 19.3% of total adolescents of the country and 17.5% of India’s youth

Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh are among top five states in terms of both adolescents and youth population, with varying ranking for the two segments, though all these four states each accounts for less than 10% of the share of adolescents and youth population of the country

Total 10-19 yr 11622 - 50000005000001 - 1000000010000001 - 1610000016100001 - 48910261Missing Value

Adolescent Population: in India, 2011

Percent of Adolescent Population, State wise, 2011

Percent of Youth Population, State wise, 2011

Trends in Adolescents Sex Ratio in Selected Countries, 2000-2010

Among top 10 populous counties of the world, drastic declines in Sex ratio among adolescent population during 2000-2010 has been observed in case of China and India and also in Indonesia

Sex ratio is defined as females per thousand males

Trends in Youth Sex Ratio in Selected Countries, 2000-2010

In case of sex ratio among youth population, China showed drastic decline of 36 points during 2000-2010

India’s youth sex ratio has declined by 8 points during this period

Sex ratio is defined as females per thousand males

Trends in Adolescents, Youth and Overall Sex Ratio in India, 1961 – 2011

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011840

860

880

900

920

940

960

980

1000

898

884892 887 882

898

990

935

927 925 895 908

941

930

934 927 933943

Adolescent Youth Overall

Census Years

Fem

ales

per

100

0 m

ales

Based on Census data, the adolescent sex ratio in India has been low – with the lowest at 882 in 2001 to the highest at 898 in 2011

The youth sex ratio declined sharply from 990 in 1961 to 935 in 1971, and thereafter it fell in subsequent four decades, it fell continuously and during 2011 Census, it improved by 13 points (at 908)

Sex ratio is defined as females per thousand males

Top five states/UTs Adolescent Sex Ratio

Top five states/UTs Youth Sex Ratio

Lakshadweep 1053 Puducherry 1040

Arunachal Pradesh 983 Meghalaya 1011

Odisha 981 Kerala 1008

Meghalaya 979 Odisha 1006

Chhattisgarh 972 Tripura 1003

Bottom five states/UTs

Adolescent Sex Ratio

Bottom five states/Uts

Youth Sex Ratio

Haryana 805 Haryana 834

Punjab 791 NCT Delhi 829

Dadra & N Haveli 775 Chandigarh 749

Chandigarh 756 Dadra & N Haveli 627

Daman & Diu 584 Daman & Diu 406

Top and Bottom Five States in terms of Adolescent and Youth Sex Ratio in India, 2011

Total Rural Urban Percentage Distribution

Rural Urban253 181 72 71.5 28.5

232 158 74 68.1 31.9

(Million)

Size of Adolescent and Youth Population by Place of Residence in India, 2011

72% of the total adolescents in India resides in rural areas (181 million)

In case of youth population, 68% live in rural areas

2001 20110

5

10

15

20

2521.9 21.7

17.7 18.9

RURAL AREAS

Adolescent Youth

2001 20110

5

10

15

20

2521.9

19.220.5 19.7

URBAN AREAS

Adolescent Youth

Trends in Percentage of Adolescent and Youth Population by Place of Residence in India, 2000-2011

Percent of adolescent population in urban areas declined from 21.9% in 2001 to 19.2% in 2011, while in rural areas it remained more or less same

The reverses is observed in case of percent of youth population. In rural areas, it increased from 17.7% in 2001 to 18.9% in 2011, while in rural areas it remained more or less same

Adolescent Youth

SC % to total adol

ST % to total adol

SC % to total youth

ST % to total youth

INDIA 44 17.5 23 9.2 40 17.1 20 8.6

Social Composition of Adolescent and Youth Population in India, 2011

(Population size in Million)

44 million adolescents belong to Scheduled Caste category, comprising 17% of the total adolescent population of the country

23 million adolescents belong to Scheduled Tribe category, comprising 9% of the total adolescents in the country

Among youth, 40 and 20 million belong to SC and ST respectively

• The current and future prospects of adolescent and youth population, as well as diversity, provides denominators for programme planning

• It is up to us to take cognizance of the huge size and invest properly for the future development of our nation

Summing Up

Thanks