situation development in the context of the ukrainian-russian conflict

EVENTS IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL DOMAINSEVENTS IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL DOMAINS 1. 1. RF-MoldovaRF-Moldova 28-30.03.2016 28-30.03.2016 - visit of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of RF G.Karasin to Moldova aimed at - visit of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of RF G.Karasin to Moldova aimed at discussing cooperation enforcing in the trading sphere (cancelation of RF restriction on Moldavian discussing cooperation enforcing in the trading sphere (cancelation of RF restriction on Moldavian goods export and unhampered rotation of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transnistria);goods export and unhampered rotation of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transnistria);Lobbying its interests in Gagauzia RF authorities (unofficially) provided a range of preferences in Lobbying its interests in Gagauzia RF authorities (unofficially) provided a range of preferences in controlling of Moldavian and Gagauzian export to RF to the Russian oligarch Y.Yakubov (originally controlling of Moldavian and Gagauzian export to RF to the Russian oligarch Y.Yakubov (originally Gagauzian). It is expected to have loyal attitude to Kremlin in the region in return.Gagauzian). It is expected to have loyal attitude to Kremlin in the region in return. 2. 2. RF-ItalyRF-Italy 25.03.2016 25.03.2016 - - there was conducted a visit of the Minister there was conducted a visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Italy P.Gentiloni to RF. He of Foreign Affairs of Italy P.Gentiloni to RF. He discussed with Lavrov a possibility to resume the dialog in discussed with Lavrov a possibility to resume the dialog in «2+2» «2+2» format between Ministers of Foreign format between Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defence Ministers and ways of bilateral cooperation in different scopes in the state of Affairs and Defence Ministers and ways of bilateral cooperation in different scopes in the state of sanctions imposed on RFsanctions imposed on RF 3. 3. RF – Czech RepublicRF – Czech Republic 25.03.2016 25.03.2016 - there was conducted a visit of the Minister of Industry and Trading of RF D.Manturov to - there was conducted a visit of the Minister of Industry and Trading of RF D.Manturov to Czech Republic aimed at widening economical cooperation in the state of sanctions imposed on RFCzech Republic aimed at widening economical cooperation in the state of sanctions imposed on RF

SITUATION DEVELOPMENTSITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICTIN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT

EVENTS IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL DOMAINSEVENTS IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL DOMAINS1. Information company supported by state bodies and controlled media agencies of RF against 1. Information company supported by state bodies and controlled media agencies of RF against Ukrainian state leadership is still going on. Ukrainian state leadership is still going on. There have been stimulated: There have been stimulated: ««round tablesround tables» » conducting, conducting, propagandistic expositions and different forums where Ukrainian ex-politicians, who currently hiding in propagandistic expositions and different forums where Ukrainian ex-politicians, who currently hiding in RF, were involved. RF mass media widely publicized “facts and evidence of war crimes offended by RF, were involved. RF mass media widely publicized “facts and evidence of war crimes offended by Ukrainian troops” against local population in Donbas;Ukrainian troops” against local population in Donbas; 2. 2. 25.03.201625.03.2016 V.Putin in Moscow at the assembly of Russian union of manufacturers and V.Putin in Moscow at the assembly of Russian union of manufacturers and businessmen confirmed RF authorities’ readiness to decrease fiscal pressure and to soften criminal businessmen confirmed RF authorities’ readiness to decrease fiscal pressure and to soften criminal responsibility for minor economical offends and indirectly stated that assets withdrawal from Ukraine responsibility for minor economical offends and indirectly stated that assets withdrawal from Ukraine was not reasonable.was not reasonable. 3. 3. 25.03.201625.03.2016 State Duma of RF passed in the first reading the law “Concerning RF residence permit State Duma of RF passed in the first reading the law “Concerning RF residence permit providing to the refuges of Ukraine in simplified procedure” in the framework of the Program of providing to the refuges of Ukraine in simplified procedure” in the framework of the Program of demographic situation improvement and decreasing lack of labor force in the problematic Russian demographic situation improvement and decreasing lack of labor force in the problematic Russian regions (325 thousand refuges have applied for residence permit)regions (325 thousand refuges have applied for residence permit) 4. 4. 23.03.201623.03.2016 in Moscow “the head of the Republic of Crimea” S.Aksionov giving press-conference in Moscow “the head of the Republic of Crimea” S.Aksionov giving press-conference devoted to the II Yalta International Economy Forum (14-16.03.16) revealed the way of coping with devoted to the II Yalta International Economy Forum (14-16.03.16) revealed the way of coping with international sanctions. It is establishment of enterprises on the inland part of RF and their consequent international sanctions. It is establishment of enterprises on the inland part of RF and their consequent acting in the Crimea acting in the Crimea

SITUATION DEVELOPMENTSITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICTIN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT

MAIN EVENTS IN THE OMAIN EVENTS IN THE OССCUPIED TERRITORIES CUPIED TERRITORIES 1.1. The "DNR" continue to work on implementing the norms of the Russian legislation. Particular attention is paid to the sphere of customs regulation, freedom of conscience and religion, as well as the fight against terrorism. At the same time, the leadership of the Russian Federation organized training of the representatives of "DLNR" in the Russian state legislature organs (nowadays the number of representatives of "DLNR" study peculiarities of the Russian legislative practice in the upper house of the Russian State Duma;

2.2. 23/03/2016 A.Zaharchenko within strengthening of "ideological component" announced the establishment in "DNR" “state” institutions and enterprises the positions of political leaders;

33. . As part of the "international legitimacy“ of "DNR" and the Crimea occupation: the self-proclaimed republic of South Ossetia's parliament approved a memorandum of inter-

parliamentary cooperation with the "DNR" (with the “LNR" is planned to do the same in the near future); in Moscow between the Occupational “Government of the Crimea" and the federal state

enterprise "ITAR-TASS" an agreement on cooperation is signed in the framework of the distribution by "ITAR-TASS" the "truthful" information about the situation in the Crimea in the global information space;4. Lack of adequate funding by the Russian Federation leads to a further deterioration in the socio-economic situation in "DLNR." Suspended payment of full salary and various types of social assistance, measures are being taken to intimidate the population to limit the exit of "DLNR citizens" on the territory controlled by Ukraine.

SITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF SITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICTRUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT

Up to 2 BTG 1 CTG

РТГрРТГр – – до 11до 11

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

Russian Federation Armed Russian Federation Armed Forces composition on the Forces composition on the territories of Donetsk and territories of Donetsk and

Luhansk (LNR/DNR)Luhansk (LNR/DNR)

– – up toup to 7 200 7 200 – – up toup to 117 (+110 117 (+110 at at storage bases)storage bases)

– – up toup to 460 460

– – up toup to 150 150

– – up toup to 95 95

– – up toup to 66 66 air defense air defense

systemssystems

– – up toup to 44 launcherslaunchers ««TochkaTochka--UU»»

CTGCTG – – up toup to 9 9

Up to 10 BTG 7 CTG

Up to 3 BTG 1 CTG

Up to 1 BTG

RUSSIAN FEDERATION ARMED FORCES RUSSIAN FEDERATION ARMED FORCES COMPONENT IN A FRONTIER ZONE WITH COMPONENT IN A FRONTIER ZONE WITH

UKRAINEUKRAINE

RF HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINERF HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINE

V.Surkov, RF President assistant, has been recognized as .Surkov, RF President assistant, has been recognized as «the main constructorthe main constructor» » of hybrid warfare regarding Ukraine of hybrid warfare regarding Ukraine ((he is using the term he is using the term ««the first non-linear warthe first non-linear war»). »). He He keeps the position of keeps the position of ««the main curatorthe main curator» » from Putin`s administration on the occupied territory of from Putin`s administration on the occupied territory of Donbas and examines the expansion as Donbas and examines the expansion as ««natural state of the sound countrynatural state of the sound country». ». It is V.Surkov, who in It is V.Surkov, who in 2005 2005 introduced the term introduced the term ««Russian peaceRussian peace»» in a present-day in a present-day political domain political domain and he was one of the originators of new holiday of Russian peaceand he was one of the originators of new holiday of Russian peace — « — «The The Day of national unityDay of national unity». ». The year before Crimean annexationThe year before Crimean annexation, , inin 2013 2013 it was hanging the map of it was hanging the map of Russian empire in the drawing room of V.Surkov, where Crimea has already been the part of Russian empire in the drawing room of V.Surkov, where Crimea has already been the part of Russia. Russia.

NowadaysNowadays hybrid warfare hybrid warfare ((another names another names – – proxy proxy warwar, , non-linear warnon-linear war, , soft power theorysoft power theory, , chaos theorychaos theory, , synergeticsynergetic, , dissipative structure theorydissipative structure theory,, systematic systematic theorytheory)) became the name of existing confrontation became the name of existing confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.between Russia and Ukraine.

Peculiarities of this hybrid warfare Peculiarities of this hybrid warfare do not enable to use absolutely the definition of do not enable to use absolutely the definition of aggression, conceived in the resolution of UN General Assembly inaggression, conceived in the resolution of UN General Assembly in 1974: 1974: ««ArticleArticle 1. 1. Aggression is the usage of the force of armsAggression is the usage of the force of arms against sovereigntyagainst sovereignty, , territorial integrity and political territorial integrity and political independence ofindependence of another state or any other way, contradictory to UN Charteranother state or any other way, contradictory to UN Charter, , as it is defined in as it is defined in the current definitionthe current definition»»..


Many different views on hybrid warfare were reflected in the following projects of Many different views on hybrid warfare were reflected in the following projects of Russian scientistRussian scientist: «: «Hybrid warfare and color revolution in the world policy», «Technologies of non-bearing settlement of international and internal political conflicts», «Strategies role of the controlled chaos in formation of new world order», «Ukraine as the general rehearsal: color revolutions and authority disassembling», «Ukrainian crisis and «controlled chaos»: trace of «color revolutions» of Arab spring» etc. A.Manoilo, participating in annual meeting of RF Academy of Military Sciences in 2016, underlined, that the threats of hybrid warfare and color revolutions are real and are not the propagandist myth, and also some conception elements of confrontation «soft power» exist in Russian foreign policy, but represented quite schematically and more often as the copy of the best practices of other countries.

A.Manoilo, doctor of political sciences, professor of Lomonosov Moscow State University, is one of the ideologists of the modern Russian state information policy in specific conditions. According to his assertion, information and psychological war is information and psychological war is the warfare, planned in accordance with public relations scenariosthe warfare, planned in accordance with public relations scenarios. . Leakage of misinformation and its presentation in the positive light Leakage of misinformation and its presentation in the positive light allows to distort the assessment of what is happening, to allows to distort the assessment of what is happening, to demoralize the citizens and in the short prospect to provide the demoralize the citizens and in the short prospect to provide the defection to the side of the informational aggressor.defection to the side of the informational aggressor.


One discussed the ways of One discussed the ways of ««hybrid warfarehybrid warfare» » andand « «color revolutioncolor revolution»» threats threats prevention in RF Academy of Military Sciences prevention in RF Academy of Military Sciences (February-March 2016)(February-March 2016). . V.Herasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of RF, first deputy Minister V.Herasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of RF, first deputy Minister of Defence of RF, gave the main briefingof Defence of RF, gave the main briefing. . According to his words, According to his words, ««the accent of the used the accent of the used methods of confrontation is being shiftedmethods of confrontation is being shifted in the side of wide usage of political, economical, informational, humanitarian and other non-military measures, realized by means of involvement of protest potential of the dwellers. All this can be complemented with military measures of hidden character, including the realization of the events of informational confrontation and special operation forces activities. One can often use the open force under the pretext of peacekeeping activity and crisis settlement only at definite stage, mainly for achieving the final success in the conflict». V.Herasimov also stated that Russia has got the definite level of mastery in the domain of in the domain of ««hybrid warfarehybrid warfare», », in general having in general having accumulated and used successfully foreign experienceaccumulated and used successfully foreign experience. . Hereafter, Russia should counter Hereafter, Russia should counter the enemythe enemy,, developing conception of developing conception of « «soft powersoft power»»..


««Hybrid warfareHybrid warfare»» — — military strategymilitary strategy, , joining togetherjoining together ordinaryordinary, , small and cyber small and cyber warfarewarfare. . The key forms of The key forms of ««hybrid warfarehybrid warfare»» conduct are conduct are informational activitiesinformational activities,, psychological actions and cyber attackspsychological actions and cyber attacks directed at structural technical components of state directed at structural technical components of state and also its citizensand also its citizens. .

««Color revolutionsColor revolutions»» — — collective name of power change processescollective name of power change processes, , such as such as ««rose rose revolutionrevolution» » in Georgiain Georgia, «, «tuliptulip» » in Kyrgyzstanin Kyrgyzstan, «, «orangeorange» » in Ukrainein Ukraine, «, «jasminejasmine» » in Tunisia in Tunisia andand « «lotuslotus» » in Egyptin Egypt. . Starting as peaceful meetingsStarting as peaceful meetings, «, «color revolutionscolor revolutions»» as a rule result in as a rule result in cruel and tough confrontationcruel and tough confrontation stepping out ofstepping out of legal frameworklegal framework. .

««Soft powerSoft power»» envisagesenvisages voluntary involvement in its sphere of interests first of all by voluntary involvement in its sphere of interests first of all by means of formation of attractive imagemeans of formation of attractive image as a counter to as a counter to ««tough powertough power», », leaning on leaning on compulsion and moneycompulsion and money. . It is deemed to be thatIt is deemed to be that « «soft powersoft power» » is actively used by Western is actively used by Western countriescountries, , extending values of democracy and human rights along with acquainting wide extending values of democracy and human rights along with acquainting wide world public with its culture and customer preference. world public with its culture and customer preference.

In hybrid warfare against UkraineIn hybrid warfare against Ukraine, , the aggressorthe aggressor – – Russia – represents itself as a Russia – represents itself as a victim of Western countries policyvictim of Western countries policy, , forced to protect itself from its expansion on post forced to protect itself from its expansion on post soviet areasoviet area. . Within this paradigm the actions of RF against Ukraine and world Within this paradigm the actions of RF against Ukraine and world community have been examined as forced.community have been examined as forced. On the one hand, Ukraine has been examined as the domain of exclusive interests On the one hand, Ukraine has been examined as the domain of exclusive interests of RF, but on the other hand of RF, but on the other hand – – as Western instrument implementing as Western instrument implementing ««color revolutionscolor revolutions» » on post soviet areaon post soviet area. . Agreements signing regarding association between EU and such Agreements signing regarding association between EU and such countries as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia can be interpreted as European aggression countries as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia can be interpreted as European aggression act against Russia.act against Russia. Ideas of protection from supposed threats is used also for formation of domestic Ideas of protection from supposed threats is used also for formation of domestic conflictconflict. . Threats: Threats: ““juntajunta", “", “fascistsfascists", “", “banderovtsybanderovtsy". ". Victims are Victims are ““Russian people in Russian people in UkraineUkraine". ". Besides, no one cares that Besides, no one cares that ““the victimthe victim" " dies only there, where he/she is dies only there, where he/she is ""protectedprotected"", and feels fine on the territory of , and feels fine on the territory of ““juntajunta" " in places of maximum accumulation in places of maximum accumulation of of ««banderovtsybanderovtsy»»..


RF KEY AIM IN CONFLICT WITH UKRAINE is to weaken and decentralize the country, to place in power prorussian lobby, disrupt Euro-Atlantic course, regaining Ukraine under the control of Kremlin. Besides, strategy and tactics against Ukraine includes consecutive steps on realization of examined higher approaches. UNIQUE FEATURES OF «HYBRID WARFARE»: aggression without official declaring war with covering-up by country-aggressor its participation in the conflict;wide application of irregular military formations (also under the pretext of peaceful settlers); enemy violation of international norms of combat activities conduct and also acting international agreements and earlier agreements reached; activities of political and economical pressure (with formal maintenance of international economical and other relations between countries); wide propaganda and counterpropaganda with the usage of «shadowy schemes» with confrontation in cyberspace.

Analysis ofAnalysis of « «hybrid warfarehybrid warfare»» as a key instrument of Russian geostrategy of revenge as a key instrument of Russian geostrategy of revenge has been pictured in more than has been pictured in more than 30 30 publications of well-known Ukrainian politician and publications of well-known Ukrainian politician and scientistscientist. The results of strategic researches of V.Horbulin (for the period of 2 years of Russian-Ukrainian conflict) «irradiate» at secret operations and active events conducted by RF within the framework of hybrid warfare not only in Ukraine, but also beyond its borders.Predictions of V.Horbulin for Ukraine and World community are unpromising – «hybrid warfare wasn`t started by Ukraine and won`t be finished here. This is just the beginning»… And the statement of D.Grybauskaite, the President of Lithuania (in 2014!) «If no one stops the terrorist state conducting open aggression against its neighbor, it will be expanded on Europe and further». And it really has been expanded. In many sophisticated forms…

Vladimir Horbulin, advisor of the President of Ukraine, chief of National Institute of Strategic Sciences, academician of national Academy of Science of Ukraine, Doctor of Engineering Science, professor. Regularly represents to the world community the ideas of Ukrainian scientists regarding undeclared war of Russia against Ukraine, its geopolitical sources along with analysis of its new forms and aspects.

In the article of V.Horbulin dated on 25.03.2016 «Hybrid warfare: this is just the beginning…» there are some key components belonging to the events of the current Russian practice in framework of «hybrid warfare»:

1.Traditional military measures (usage of permanent military units and equipment along with special operations forces); 2.Quasimilitary activity (formation and support of illegal armed units, support and radicalization of separatist movements, formal and informal private military companies); 3.Operations of non-military influence, by means of special informational operations and “active events" (including economic pressure, cyberspace operations, diplomacy, манипуляции manipulations in informational space)


H.Pocheptsov, Ukrainian professor, Doctor of Philology, acknowledged expert in communicative technologies domain, has formulated in his projects the name of RF aggression on the East of Ukraine and Crimean annexation as ««the first the first первая первая semantic warsemantic war». ». H.Pocheptsov has stated the following features of concealed informational and psychological aggression of RF in South-Eastern part of Ukraine:

military aggression features elimination – «– «green mengreen men, , polite peoplepolite people» ;» ; features elimination of illegal activities during conquest of power features elimination of illegal activities during conquest of power – «– «peoples peoples mayormayor, , everything is our nationaleverything is our national, , peoples self-defencepeoples self-defence, , reunion of historical territoriesreunion of historical territories»;»; creation ofcreation of negative characteristics of legal authority negative characteristics of legal authority – «– «punisherspunishers, , juntajunta, , self-self-proclaimed Kyiv authorityproclaimed Kyiv authority».».

REVEALED DIRECTIONS OF RF INFORMATIONAL AGGRESSIONREVEALED DIRECTIONS OF RF INFORMATIONAL AGGRESSIONdestabilization of social-political situation in Ukraine;changes provoking in territorial organization of Ukraine;opposition to cooperation deepening between Ukraine and EU, NATO; formation of negative image of Ukraine in sight of world community; discredit of law-enforcement bodies and authorities of Ukraine during fulfillment their tasks in ATO zone.

CURRENT CONCLUSIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF CURRENT CONCLUSIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICTRUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT

1. Leadership of the Russian Federation continues to implement the concept of "hybrid war" in the phase of maintenance of the low-intensity conflict in the south-east of Ukraine

2. Kremlin leadership has stepped up measures to deepen the contradictions among the Western countries on the issue of accepting of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and recognition of further extension of anti-Russian sanctions;;

3. Economic viability of the "DNR project" within the existing territory entails efforts to further expand the boundaries of the self-proclaimed "republics" by capturing Donbass infrastructure on the territory not controlled by them. To achieve this goal the Russian Federation continues to transfer of military equipment, fuel and ammunition to the line of demarcation, conducts training of separatists’ units together with troops of the russian Armed Forces, authorizes the constant bombardment of ATO forces and proactive tactical groups.

4. The occupied territory of Ukraine turned for Russia in subsidized region, where the level of industry and agriculture - is low, the proportion of pensioners - is very high, and the ecological situation - is critical. This leads to frustration of the "republic’s" population

situation development in the context of the ukrainian-russian conflict

News & Politics