SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR THE 2013/14 FLORIDA CITRUS SEASON

DECEMBER FORECAST

FCM Board Meetingjanuary 8, 2014

FLORIDA ORANGE CROP, 2013-14.DECEMBER FORECASTFACTORS OF PRODUCTION

UTILIZATION AND JUICE IMPORTS

JUICE SUPPLY, AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT AND INVENTORY

RETAIL SALES AND PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION

NURSERY PROPAGATIONS SOURCE: FDACS, BUDWOOD ANNUAL REPORTS.

Season Orange Propagations

% Change % Oranges

2006-07 2,362,829 NA 91%2007-08 3,069,515 30% 87%2008-09 3,348,479 9% 89%2009-10 2,391,375 -29% 80%2010-11 2,541,410 6% 81%2011-12 3,172.966 25% 81%2012-13 3,898,083 23% 83%

ORANGE BEARING TREE INVENTORYFDACS/FASS. FLORIDA CITRUS STATISTICS, 2012-13.

Season Bearing Trees (000)

% Net Change

% Mortality

2006-07 63,950 NA NA2007-08 61,742 -3.5% NA2008-09 60,754 -1.6% NA2009-10 59,561 -2.0% -5.1%2010-11 58,158 -2.4% -4.9%2011-12 57,459 -1.2% -4.6%2012-13 57,146 -0.5% NA2013-14 56,794 -0.6% NA

FACTORS OF PRODUCTION SOURCE: FDACS/NASS REPORTS.

Early and Mid ValenciaSeason Pieces Drop Size Pieces Drop Size

2006-07 690 8% 233 426 15% 198

2007-08 1,058 8% 264 676 15% 221

2008-09 1,082 11% 257 575 15% 219

2009-10 866 8% 246 480 14% 218

2010-11 932 7% 280 598 16% 227

2011-12 918 13% 235 567 19% 212

2012-13 1,034 18% 274 661 22% 231

2013-14F (Dec) 918 21% 287 614 19% 243

FLORIDA ORANGE CROP UTILIZATION(1,000,000 BOXES)

FCOJ COJ Fresh Other Total

2005/06 49.1 90.2 4.5 3.9 147.7

2006/07 46.0 75.2 5.0 2.8 129.0

2007/08 78.0 85.1 4.4 2.7 170.2

2008/09 71.2 82.8 5.5 3.0 162.5

2009/10 51.3 75.1 4.5 2.8 133.7

2010/11 50.3 82.6 4.5 3.1 140.5

2011/12 63.9 75.5 4.6 2.6 146.7

2012/13 47.5 79.2 4.5 2.4 133.6

2013/14 Nov

41.1 77.0 4.5 2.4 125.0

2013/14 Dec

39.1 75.0 4.5 2.4 121.0

NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual market is FCOJ.

US ORANGE JUICE IMPORTSOCTOBER THROUGH SEPTEMBER

Million Single Strength Gallons $ Value/SSG  11-12 12-13 % Chg 11-12 12-13 % Chg

All Imports 223.3 420.5 88%

$ 1.76

$ 1.35 -23%

Brazil    

NFC 41.8

49.8 19%

$ 1.66

$ 1.49 -10%

Concentrate 60.5 187.5 210%

$ 1.54

$ 1.11 -28%

All Others    

NFC 4.2

6.2 48%

$ 2.76

$ 2.40 -13%

Concentrate 116.9

177.0 51%

$ 1.87

$ 1.53 -18%

Source: US Dept of Commerce.

Brazilian prices need to have duties added, whereas ‘Others’ (Mexico and Costa Rica) do not.

FCOJ beginning inventory is priced ~$1.40/ssg!

US ORANGE JUICE IMPORTSOCTOBER 2013

Million Single Strength Gallons $ Value/SSG  12-13 13-14 % Chg 12-13 13-14 % Chg

All Imports 55.5 47.8 -14% $ 1.23

$ 1.37 12%

Brazil    

NFC 5.9 7.7 30%

$ 1.43

$ 1.71 20%

Concentrate 41.1 31.9 -22%

$ 1.06

$ 1.22 15%

All Others    

NFC 0.0

0.0 - 0.0 0.0 -

Concentrate 8.5 8.2 -4%

$ 1.88

$ 1.63 -13%

Source: US Dept of Commerce.

Concentrate prices are $.10 per gallon higher than where they closed in 2012/13.

Brazilian NFC prices are >$.20 per gallon higher.

FL OJ AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT & INVENTORYCURRENT SEASON FORECAST VS YEAR AGOItem 12-13 13-14 F. (Dec) % Change 

Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (MM PS)Beginning Inventory 254.13 319.47 26%

Million Boxes Utilized 47.0 39.1 -13%Juice Production 316.41 261.75 -17%Other Supplies 199.59 130.00 -35%Availability 770.13 711.22 -8%Movement 450.66 421.07 -7%Ending Inventory 319.47 290.15 -9%

Weeks Supply 37 36 -3%Chilled Orange Juice (MM PS)

Beginning Inventory 192.00 219.28 14%Million Boxes Utilized 79.2 75.0 -5%

Juice Production 519.48 502.08 -3%Other Supplies 45.06 34.00 -70%Availability 756.54 755.36 unchMovement (incl. evap) 537.26 522.68 -3%Ending Inventory 219.28 232.68 6%

Weeks Supply 21 23 9%

Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports.

After 12 wks

-55.6%-33.5%

-12.5%11.2%

-22.1%-72.1%

-2.3%-0.2%

US RETAIL ORANGE JUICE SALES – ALL CATEGORIES FDM PLUS WALMART

10/1

/200

3

4/1/

2004

10/1

/200

4

4/1/

2005

10/1

/200

5

4/1/

2006

10/1

/200

6

4/1/

2007

10/1

/200

7

4/1/

2008

10/1

/200

8

4/1/

2009

10/1

/200

9

4/1/

2010

10/1

/201

0

4/1/

2011

10/1

/201

1

4/1/

2012

10/1

/201

2

4/1/

2013

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

NFC PL/Generic Top 3 Recon FCOJ

SS

E G

a.

In 2003/04, Branded Recon comprised 17% of all retail sales, equivalent of 23mm boxes.The pace for 2013/14 equates to 11%, or 7mm boxes.

RETAIL ORANGE JUICE SALESBY CATEGORY: IMPORTANCE AND STD % CHANGE

RTS PRICES ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS YEAR, YET VOLUME CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR BOTH NFC AND RECON. NFC REVENUES ARE LOWER FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2009-10.

NFC Recon FCOJ ALL OJ-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Percent Change vs Last Season

STD: 12/21/13

Gallon Revenue PricingNFC COMPRISES 59% OF ALL RETAIL VOLUME AND 68% OF THE REVENUE, WHERE AS. RECON RTS COMPRISES 37% AND 28%, RESPECTIVELY.

Gallon Sales127.1 MM ssg

NFC Recon FCOJ SS

Source: FDOC, Nielsen Retail Sales, Monthly Top-line Report, period ending 12/21/13.

Season Beg.Inv.

FlaProd.

OtherU.S.

Prod.

U.S.End.Inv.

PresumedConsumption

IMP EXP TOTAL PerCapita

- - - - - - - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - - - - - - - Gallons

08-09 680 1,035 32 317 125 722 1,217 4.0

09-10 713 806 41 328 147 588 1,153 3.7

10-11 588 864 56 265 214 422 1,138 3.7

11-12 422 928 39 223 152 463 996 3.2

12-13p 463 839 30 421 169 539 1,045 3.3

13-14f 539 742 50 290 180 524 917 2.8

U.S. OJ SUPPLY & CONSUMPTION

FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT CROP, 2013-14.DECEMBER FORECASTFACTORS OF PRODUCTION

UTILIZATION

JUICE SUPPLY, AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT AND INVENTORY

PRODUCTIVITY SUB-FACTORS. AVERAGES AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE AVERAGE.SOURCE: FASS. CITRUS CROP ESTIMATE ADVISORY COMMITTEE REPORT, SEPTEMBER 19, 2013. USDA/NASS CITRUS CROP ESTIMATES.

    Pieces of Fruit % Harvested Fruit per Box

Statistic Period White Red White Red White Red

Average 10-year 414 415 86% 85% 95 104

Average 6-year 414 415 86% 85% 95 104

Average 3-year 489 457 84% 84% 108 115

2013/14 November 555 500 80% 80% 122 122

 2013/14 December 555 500 81% 77% 124 131

FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT CROP UTILIZATION(1,000,000 BOXES)

FCGJ CGJ Fresh Other Total

2005/06 8.0 4.1 6.2 1.0 19.3

2006/07 11.6 4.4 10.3 0.9 27.2

2007/08 10.4 5.2 9.9 1.0 26.6

2008/09 8.4 3.7 8.7 0.9 21.7

2009/10 6.0 4.6 8.7 0.9 20.3

2010/11 7.0 4.2 7.7 0.9 19.8

2011/12 6.9 3.8 7.2 0.9 18.9

2012/13 6.1 4.2 7.1 0.9 18.3

2013/14 Nov

5.9 4.0 7.0 0.9 17.8

2013/14 Dec

5.4 3.8 6.7 0.9 16.7 NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual

market is FCGJ.

FL GJ AVAILABILITY, MOVEMENT & INVENTORYCURRENT SEASON FORECAST VERSUS YEAR AGO

Item 12-13 13-14F. (Dec) % Change 

Frozen Concentrate Grapefruit Juice (MM PS)Beginning Inventory 22.1 20.7 -7%

Million Boxes Utilized 6.1 5.4 -12%Juice Production 29.2 25.4 -13%Other Supplies 2.8 0.2 -93%Availability 54.1 47.7 -12%Movement 33.4 29.0 -12%Ending Inventory 20.7 18.3 -11%

Weeks Supply 32 33 1%

Chilled Grapefruit Juice (MM PS)Beginning Inventory 12.1 11.2 -8%

Million Boxes Utilized 4.2 3.8 -11%Juice Production 20.5 17.7 -14%Other Supplies 1.1 0.1 -91%Availability 33.7 29.0 14%Movement (incl. evap) 22.5 17.5 -10%Ending Inventory 11.2 10.0 -10%

Weeks Supply 30 30 unch

Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports. EMRA Forecasts for 2013-14, 12/2/13.

After 12 wks

-38%

-14.9%-13.5%

49%

-20.2% 7.1%

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