sitrep for the week ending 5/12/17 · 2017-05-15 · things that make you go hmmmmm….. this week...

SITREP for the week ending 5/12/17

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Quick “week in review” for the Busy Reader!!

TIMEFRAME -

The very big picture:

Even if we are in a new Secular Bull Market, market history says future returns are likely to be modest at best.

The Cyclically-Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is at 29.38, down slightly from the prior week’s 29.48.

(See Fig. 2)

The big picture:

The U.S. Bull-Bear Indicator turned positive on July 8th, and is in Cyclical Bull territory at 66.92, down from

the prior week’s 67.34. (See Fig. 3)

The intermediate picture:

The intermediate (weeks to months) indicator turned negative on March 24th. The indicator ended the week at

28, down from the prior week’s 29. (See Fig. 4)

Separately, the Quarterly Trend Indicator - based on domestic and international stock trend status at the start of

each quarter - was positive entering October, indicating positive prospects for equities in the fourth quarter of

2016.

Timeframe Summary:

Two of the three indicators are positive and one indicator is negative:

The U.S. equity markets are rated as Neutral.

OTHER -

Institutional Investor Sentiment - from Offensive to Defensive:

The average ranking of Defensive SHUT sectors rose to 12.5 from the prior week’s 14.25, while the average

ranking of Offensive DIME sectors fell to 14.25 from the prior week’s 13.75. The Defensive SHUT sectors

have taken the lead over the Offensive DIME sectors.

The Markets:

As always, this section has been updated with the latest facts and figures. It will help to understand what has

been going on in the markets and economy over the last week.

Chart of the Week (Page 6):

Things that make you go hmmmmm….. This week we look at what happened with the housing (mortgage)

bubble, and compare it to what is happing with Auto Loans. Check out the Chart and see what NINJA’s are,

what Mark Twain has to say, what deep Subprime is, and what if anything should we be worried about!

Please turn the page for our Weekly SITREP…






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THE VERY BIG PICTURE:

In the "decades" timeframe, the question of whether we are in a continuing Secular Bear Market that began in

2000 or in a new Secular Bull Market has been the subject of hot debate among economists and market

watchers since 2013, when the Dow and S&P 500 exceeded their 2000 and 2007 highs. The Bear proponents

point out that the long-term PE ratio (called “CAPE”, for Cyclically-Adjusted Price to Earnings ratio), which

has done a historically great job of marking tops and bottoms of Secular Bulls and Secular Bears, did not get

down to the single-digit range that has marked the end of Bear Markets for a hundred years, but the Bull

proponents say that significantly higher new highs are de-facto evidence of a Secular Bull, regardless of the

CAPE. Further confusing the question, the CAPE now has risen to levels that have marked the end of Bull

Markets except for times of full-blown market manias. See Fig. 1 for the 100-year view of Secular Bulls and

Bears.

Even if we are in a new Secular Bull Market, market history says future returns are likely to be modest at best.

The CAPE is at 29.38, down slightly from the prior week’s 29.48, and only a little lower than the level reached

at the pre-crash high in October, 2007. Since 1881, the average annual return for all ten year periods that began

with a CAPE around this level have been just 3% a year (see Fig. 2).

This further means that returns will likely come from the active management of portfolios than from passive

buy-and-hold. Although a mania could come along and cause the CAPE to shoot upward from current levels

(such as happened in the late 1920’s and the late 1990’s), in the absence of such a mania, buy-and-hold

investors will likely have a long wait until the arrival of returns more typical of a rip-snorting Secular Bull

Market.

THE BIG PICTURE:

The “big picture” is the months to years timeframe – the timeframe in which Cyclical Bulls and Bears operate.

The U.S. Bull-Bear Indicator (see Fig. 3) is in Cyclical Bull territory 66.92, down from the prior week’s 67.34.

THE INTERMEDIATE PICTURE:

The Intermediate (weeks to months) Indicator (see Fig. 4) turned negative on March 24th. The indicator ended

the week at 28, down from the prior week’s 29. Separately, the Quarterly Trend Indicator - based on domestic

and international stock trend status at the start of each quarter – was positive entering October, indicating

positive prospects for equities in the fourth quarter of 2016.

TIMEFRAME SUMMARY:

In the Secular (years to decades) timeframe (Figs. 1 & 2), whether we are in a new Secular Bull or still in the

Secular Bear, the long-term valuation of the market is simply too high to sustain rip-roaring multi-year returns.

The Bull-Bear Indicator (months to years) is positive (Fig. 3), indicating a potential uptrend in the longer

timeframe. The Quarterly Trend Indicator (months to quarters) is positive for Q4, and the Intermediate (weeks

to months) timeframe (Fig. 4) is negative. Therefore, with all three indicators positive, the U.S. equity markets

are rated as Neutral.






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A GLOBAL LOOK AT THE MARKETS AND ECONOMY:

Domestic Markets:

Most of the major U.S. benchmarks ended the week lower. The Nasdaq Composite was the only index to

record a gain and touch a new high. Another notable development was this week’s decline of the Chicago

Board of Exchange’s Volatility Index, or VIX, to its lowest level since 1993. The VIX is often referred to as

the “fear index”, as it traditionally moves inverse to stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated

half a percent, or 110 points, to close at 20,896. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had its fourth straight week

of gains, rising 0.3% to close at 6,121. By market cap, the large cap S&P 500 retreated -0.3%, while the mid

cap S&P 400 and small cap Russell 2000 indexes fell -1.1% and -1.0%, respectively.

International Markets:

Canada’s Toronto Stock Exchange Index fell a third straight week, losing -0.3%. Major European markets were

mixed. The United Kingdom’s FTSE rose 1.9%, while on the mainland France’s CAC 40 fell half a percent.

Germany’s DAX rose for a third week, adding 0.4% as did Italy’s Milan FTSE which also added 0.4%.

Markets were mixed in Asia as well. China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6%, while Japan’s Nikkei

surged a robust 2.3% - its fourth straight week of solid gains. As a group, emerging markets (as measured by

the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) gained 2.6%, while developed markets (as measured by the MSCI

Developed Markets Index) lost 0.5%.

Commodities:

Commodities: Oil managed to close up following three straight weeks of losses. West Texas Intermediate

crude oil climbed 3.5% to close at $47.84 a barrel. Gold was essentially flat, rising just 80 cents to $1,227.70

an ounce. Silver also held steady after three weeks of losses, rising 0.79% to close at $16.40 an ounce. The

industrial metal copper, viewed by analysts as an indicator of worldwide economic health because of its

ubiquitous use, fell by a slight -0.18%.

Domestic Economic News – Labor Market:

The number of people collecting unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level in over 28 years last week,

further evidence of the robust labor market. Initial claims fell by 2,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 236,000 for the

week ended May 6, according to the Labor Department. Claims have now been below the key 300,000

threshold that analysts view as a healthy job market for 114 straight weeks. Economists had expected claims to

rise by 12,000. The four-week moving average of claims, used by some analysts to smooth the week-to-week

volatility, rose by 500 to 243,500. With the unemployment rate at 4.4%, Federal Reserve officials believe the

labor market is close to full employment. With the jobless rate so low, Fed officials have stated they need to

raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst

Pierpont Securities stated, “The labor market continues to tighten, and the Fed had better do the same.”

Continuing claims, the number of people already receiving benefits, fell 61,000 to 1.91 million the previous

week. That is the lowest number of continuing claims since November 1988.

The Labor Department’s “JOLTS” report – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey - drifted sideways in

March as the momentum in the labor market appeared to wane. The Labor Department reported 5.74 million

job openings, matching February’s number while the number of hires and separations were also little changed at

5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Job openings had previously risen to a seven-month high in February,

increasing 118,000 positions to a seasonally adjusted 5.7 million. Professional and business services openings

led the way with an increase of 126,000, other services increased 55,000, and state and local government






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education gained 27,000. The number of “quits”, the number of people who voluntarily left their jobs for

presumably better pay, ticked up 2.6% in March. That number is closely watched by analysts as it signals more

worker confidence in the labor market.

Domestic Economic News – The Budget (Something we don’t see every day…A SURPLUS!):

The Treasury Department reported the federal government ran a budget surplus of over $182 billion in April, an

increase of $76 billion over the same month last year. That was the largest surplus for an April since the record

set in 2001. Total receipts were $455.6 billion, while spending was $273 billion. April is traditionally a surplus

month since the government receives tax payments from individuals before the mid-April tax deadline. In

addition, receipts were boosted by a change in corporate tax filing deadlines that moved the deadline to mid-

April from mid-March. For the first seven months of the year, the government is running a deficit of $344.4

billion, down 2.4% from the same time last year. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the federal

government would run a budget deficit of $559 billion for fiscal 2017, a slight decrease from last year’s $585.6

billion.

Domestic Economic News – Small Business and Consumer Sentiment:

Sentiment among small-business owners fell for the third straight month last month as business owners voiced

concerns about Washington’s inaction on taxes, surging health care insurance costs, and other financial issues.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) monthly sentiment gauge retreated 0.2 point to 104.5,

but that still exceeded economists’ forecast of a 103.8 reading. Analysts point out that although the gauge

retreated, it’s following December’s surge that was the highest in the 40-year history of the survey. In the

details of the report, five of the ten index components gained, three declined, and two remained unchanged.

Business owners once again reported that the inability to find qualified workers is their “single most important

business problem.” Healthcare also continues to be a major concern. NFIB said in its release, “Obamacare has

crushed small businesses.”

Consumer sentiment improved last week as Americans turned more bullish on their income expectations. The

University of Michigan’s confidence gauge rose 0.7 point to 97.7, beating expectations by half a point. Richard

Curtin, chief survey economist wrote, "Consumer sentiment remained on the high plateau established following

Trump's election, with the early May figure nearly identical with the December to May average of 97.4."

Compared to April a year ago, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose 8 points to 97.

The monthly survey measures 500 consumers’ attitudes towards topics such as personal finances, inflation,

unemployment, government policies and interest rates.

Domestic Economic News – Sales:

Sales at U.S. retailers rose 0.4% in April and were up 4.5% compared to the same time a year earlier, according

to the Commerce Department. Sales have risen three out of the last four months so far this year. Stripping out

motor vehicle and fuel sales, sales were up 0.3%. Sales at gas stations were over 12% higher last month than a

year ago, reflecting the higher year-over-year cost of oil. Economists had expected an increase of 0.5%. Sales

were bifurcated between online and offline. Brick and mortar retailers such as Sears and Macy’s continue to

struggle as shoppers move more and more to online purchasing. Online retail sales were up 10.7% from the

same time last year, while sales at department stores were down 5.2%. Online retail sales were up 1.4% last

month.






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International Economic News:

In Canada, as trade relations with the U.S. become more tumultuous with protectionist talk from the Trump

administration and U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, Canada may want to “seize” the opportunity to

export more products to China, the new ambassador to China said. John McCallum spoke to a Chinese

delegation meeting with business leaders in Alberta said, “With trouble on the U.S. front in that sector, it’s more

natural for Canada to turn to China as a partial recipient of Canadian forest products.” While stressing that the

United States will always be Canada’s foremost trading partner, Mr. McCallum said the nation is trying to

diversify its trade.

Across the Atlantic in the United Kingdom, Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned of a potential

consumer spending squeeze as inflation rises and real household wages fall. Mr. Carney said this year will be

“a more challenging time for British households” as “wages won’t keep up with prices.” The bank trimmed

U.K. economic growth forecasts from 2% to 1.9% and held interest rates at 0.25%. The bank also raised its

forecast for inflation this year to 2.8%, up 0.4% from February. The estimates were based on the assumption

that “the adjustment to the United Kingdom’s new relationship with the European Union is smooth”. Lucy

O'Carroll, chief economist at Aberdeen Asset Management, said: "The Bank of England is stuck between a rock

and hard place. It has to base its forecasts on a view of the Brexit deal but, with so little to go on at present, it's

not an easy judgement.”

New French president Emmanuel Macron may be the first French president in over a decade to inherit an

economic tailwind. Business confidence in the euro region’s second largest economy is improving and an

indicator of private-sector activity shows solid economic growth. Emmanuel Macron, a former investment

banker, is promising to overhaul the labor market, simplify the tax and pension systems, and pare back the

regulations that he says hamper innovations. The Bank of France’s manufacturing sentiment index rose to 104

in April, its highest level since May of 2011, while the nation’s composite Purchasing Manager’s Index jumped

to a six-year high. Martin Malone, global macro strategist at Mint Partners in London said, “We’re getting a

currency tailwind, a cost of capital tailwind, and a catch-up trade in jobs and consumption.”

The German economy grew strongly in the first quarter of the year driven by investment and consumption,

official data show. First quarter GDP growth was 0.6%, an increase of 0.2% over the fourth quarter of 2016’s

0.4% rise. According to German statistics authority Destatis, household and state spending were strong, while

firms invested heavily in construction and equipment. In addition, exports increased faster than imports.

Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, and its economic outperformance has frequently led to

friction between it and its economic partners. In February, the European Commission said Germany’s current

account surplus, which measures the balance of goods, services and investments into and out of the country,

was too big and that cutting that surplus would benefit the whole Eurozone.

In Italy, a spokesperson for the Italian minister said U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met with Italian

Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan characterizing the meeting as the start of what will become a good

relationship between Italy and the Trump administration. The two shared ideas and information on the

soundness of the Italian banking system which continues to be saddled with troubled loans. Italy’s economy is

also dealing with rising unemployment.

China and the U.S. have agreed to take action by mid-July to increase trade between the two nations. The 10-

point trade deal will open the Chinese market to U.S. credit ratings agencies and credit card companies and

China will also lift its ban on U.S. beef imports. In return, Chinese cooked chicken will be allowed into the

U.S. market and Chinese banks can enter the U.S. market. China agreed to issue guidelines that would allow






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U.S.-owned card payment services “to begin the licensing process” in an area where China’s UnionPay system

has had a near monopoly. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the deal should reduce China’s trade

surplus with the U.S. by the end of this year.

The Japanese economy is expected to expand for a fifth straight quarter, led by resurgence in consumer

spending and solid offshore demand. Analysts project the economy will continue to expand as exports rise,

while capital spending is expected to recover, driven by strong corporate earnings and growing business

confidence. In a poll of analysts, the economy was expected to expand at an annualized 1.7% in the first

quarter—its fastest rate since a 2.2% rise in the second quarter of 2016. Hidenobu Tokuda, senior economist at

Mizuho Research Institute said, “The economy in fiscal 2017 is expected to continue to pick up with the

tailwinds of the global economic recovery and a weak yen."

(2017 sources: all index return data from Yahoo Finance; Reuters, Barron’s, Wall St Journal, Bloomberg.com,

ft.com, guggenheimpartners.com, ritholtz.com, markit.com, financialpost.com, Eurostat, Statistics Canada,

Yahoo! Finance, stocksandnews.com, marketwatch.com, wantchinatimes.com, BBC, 361capital.com,

pensionpartners.com, cnbc.com, FactSet; Figs 1-5 source W E Sherman & Co, LLC)

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTER SENTIMENT:

The ranking relationship (shown in Fig. 5) between the defensive SHUT sectors ("S"=Staples [a.k.a. consumer

non-cyclical], "H"=Healthcare, "U"=Utilities and "T"=Telecom) and the offensive DIME sectors

("D"=Discretionary [a.k.a. Consumer Cyclical], "I"=Industrial, "M"=Materials, "E"=Energy), is one way to

gauge institutional investor sentiment in the market. The average ranking of Defensive SHUT sectors rose to

12.5 from the prior week’s 14.25, while the average ranking of Offensive DIME sectors fell to 14.25 from the

prior week’s 13.75. The Defensive SHUT sectors have taken the lead over the Offensive DIME sectors. Note:

these are “ranks”, not “scores”, so smaller numbers are higher ranks and larger numbers are lower ranks.

CHART OF THE WEEK:

Late in the cycle of the housing boom in 2007, analysts and hedge fund managers at prescient firms such as

Scion Capital and FrontPoint Partners became aware of a strange new phenomenon in home mortgages that

were being “securitized” into mortgage-backed securities (MBS). What they found was that so-called NINJA

applicants, which stands for “No Income No Job and No Assets”, were becoming a larger and larger component

of MBS’s but were nonetheless being labeled as safe investments by the ratings agencies. Well, as Mark Twain

is believed to have said, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.” In research from Point Predictive, a

startup firm that helps lenders discover bogus borrowers, the firm reveals that “borrower fraud in U.S. auto

loans is surging, and may approach levels seen in mortgages during the last decade’s housing bubble.” As

many as 1% of U.S. car loan applications include some type of material representation, Point Predictive says.

Frank McKenna, chief fraud strategist at the firm, said “We see an extraordinary amount of parallels between

the auto and mortgage industries, in terms of the rising levels of hidden fraud.” As of right now, it remains to

be seen if this revelation in the auto loan sector will have the same impact on the overall economy as it did for

the housing market.

The chart on the next page, from Point Predictive, graphically shows the explosion of “Deep Subprime” loans

as a percentage of all auto loans.






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SUMMARY:

The US has led the worldwide recovery, and continues to be among the strongest of global markets. However,

the over-arching Secular Bear Market may remain in place globally, despite the superior US performance.

Because the world may still be in a Secular Bear, we have no expectations of runs of multiple double-digit

consecutive years, and we expect poor market conditions to be a frequent occurrence. Nonetheless, we remain

completely open to any eventuality that the market brings, and our strategies, tactics and tools will help us to

navigate whatever happens.

CAVU Financial LLC, any of its representatives, or any of its affiliates specifically represent that the information

contained in this document does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or

other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. While every effort is made to provide

timely and accurate information, neither CAVU Financial LLC, nor its third party content providers shall be liable

for any error, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

PLEASE REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT






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Fig. 1

Fig. 2






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Fig. 3

Fig. 4






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TYPE 1 = US Styleboxes; lower volatility TYPE 2 = International Equities and Hard Assets; moderate volatility TYPE 3 = Sectors; higher volatility

Fig. 5






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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: >This material was prepared by W E Sherman & Co, LLC. >The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. >There is no assurance that the investment objective of any investment strategy will be attained. An investor trading in stocks according an active management strategy may incur greater transaction costs than if the investor follows a Buy & Hold strategy.

>International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. >The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

>Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

INDEX REFERENCE GUIDE: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index. S&P 500 Index measures performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The S&P 500 covers 80% of the U.S. market encompassing more than 100 industry groups. S&P MidCap 400 Index measures the performance of mid-sized companies. This Index represents about 7% of U.S. market cap. Russell 2000 SmallCap Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The S&P/TSX Composite Index contains stocks of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The index is calculated by Standard and Poor's, and contains both common stock and income trust units. Additions to the index are generally based on quarterly reviews. The DAX is a stock index that represents 30 of the largest and most liquid German companies that trade on the Frankfurt Exchange. The prices used to calculate the DAX Index come through Xetra, an electronic trading system. A free-float methodology is used to calculate the index weightings along with a measure of average trading volume. The United Kingdom FTSE 100 Index comprises the 100 most highly capitalized Blue Chip companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. The France CAC 40 Index represents a capitalization-weighted measure of the 40 most significant values among the 100 highest market caps on the Euronext Paris. The Italy Milan FTSE (Milano Italia Borsa) is the benchmark stock market index for the Borsa Italiana, the Italian national stock exchange, and consists of the 40 most-traded stock classes on the exchange. The China Shanghai SSE Composite Index is a stock market index of all stocks (A and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Hang Seng Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index in Hong Kong, and is used to record and monitor daily changes of the largest companies of the Hong Kong stock market. It is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong, made up of 50 constituent companies represent about 58% of the capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The Nikkei 225 more commonly called the Nikkei, is a price weighted stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

The Developed Markets Index (MSCI World Index) captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets countries. With 1,654 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. MSCI Emerging Market Index is Morgan Stanley Capital International's float-adjusted market capitalization index composed of the following 25 emerging market country indexes: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Jordan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey.






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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS is a survey done by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month. Respondents to the survey answer quantitative and qualitative questions about their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations. The JOLTS data is published monthly and by region and industry. The NFIB small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components based on questions on the following: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) uses telephone surveys to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy.

sitrep for the week ending 5/12/17 · 2017-05-15 · things that make you go hmmmmm….. this week...

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