Scales  and  linkages  of  Global  Change

Jukka  Käyhkö  and  Sirkku  Juhola    Members  of  Future  Earth  Finland  

Photo  from  The  Huffington  Post  blog  by  Joseph  V.  Micallef,  Apr  2015    

Global  Change

Behaviour    x    PopulaMon  

-­‐-­‐>  ’The  Great  AcceleraMon’  

Bad   Growing  

Steffen  et  al.  2015  The  Anthropocene  Review  Vol.  2(1)  81  –98  

Earth  system  trends  

The  Great  AcceleraMon  

Steffen  et  al.  2015  The  Anthropocene  Review  Vol.  2(1)  81  –98  

Socio-­‐economic  trends  

The  Great  AcceleraMon  

Steffen  et  al.  2015  The  Anthropocene  Review  Vol.  2(1)  81  –98  

Socio-­‐economic  trends  

The  Great  AcceleraMon  

Global  Change  spheres  (WBGU  1996)

Biosphere  

PopulaMon  

Psychosocialsphere  

Hydrosphere  

Pedosphere  

Social  organizaMon  

Atmosphere  

Economy  

Science  /  Technology  

A  simple  example,  deser%fica%on  –  how  to  solve  the  problem?      

The key mechanisms of the ’Sahel syndrome’ (”the evil circle”)

Sahel syndrome network population (red), biosphere (green), economy (blue)

Future  Earth  Key  Focal  Challenges

1.  Delivering  water,  energy,  and  food  for  all    2.  Decoupling  carbon  emissions  from  economic  growth    3.  Safeguarding  natural  assets  4.  Building  resilient  ciMes  5.  PromoMng  sustainable  rural  futures  6.  Improving  human  health  7.  Encouraging  sustainable  consumpMon    8.  Improving  governance    

Future  Earth  Key  Focal  Challenges

Delivering  water,  energy,  and  food  for  all  

Building  resilient  ciMes  

Encouraging  sustainable  consumpMon  

Decoupling  carbon  

emissions  from  economic  growth  

PromoMng  sustainable  rural  

futures  

Improving  governance  

Safeguarding  natural  assets  

Improving  human  health  

Future  Earth  IniEaEve  Key  Focal  Challenges

Delivering  water,  energy,  and  food  for  all  

Building  resilient  ciMes  

Encouraging  sustainable  consumpMon  

Decoupling  carbon  

emissions  from  economic  growth  

PromoMng  sustainable  rural  

futures  

Improving  governance  

Safeguarding  natural  assets  

Improving  human  health  

•  GC  challenges  do  not  operate  in  isolaMon  –  they  are  coupled  sub-­‐systems  of  larger  systems  

•  We  need  to  understand  the  spaMo-­‐temporal  scales  and  temporal  lags  of  the  systems,  plus  their  linkages  

•  We  will  never  reach  an  ’ulMmate’  scienMfic  soluMon  (’42’)  •  Decision-­‐making  will  have  a  poliMcal  agenda  (=opinion),  

regardless  of  science  and  knowledge  •  The  ulMmate  decision-­‐maker  is  the  individual  consumer  

ciMzen  

Future  Earth  Strategy

Delivering  water,  energy,  and  food  for  all  

Building  resilient  ciMes  

Encouraging  sustainable  consumpMon  

Decoupling  carbon  

emissions  from  economic  growth  

PromoMng  sustainable  rural  

futures  

Improving  governance  

Safeguarding  natural  assets  

Improving  human  health  

•  Therefore,  we  suggest:  •  True  transdisciplinary  research  à  Global  Change  Science,  

a  new  discipline  (with  formal  educaMon)  •  Global  Change  educaMon  for  school  children,  the  future  

consumers  à  GC  subject  to  school  curricula  •  Support  to  ’no  agenda’  science  has  to  conMnue  à  not  all  

science  can  be  tamed  to  serve  strategic  needs  

What  is  the  lowest  acceptable  concentraEon  level  of  a  good  life?

Depending on the viewpoint… …Climate change …Environmental change …Global environmental change

…Global change

What we talk about when we talk about GC?

Stepwise evolution of concerns n  Early 1900´s: concern about changes in the local /

regional environment due to our own influence (smell, dirt, sewage etc.)

n  1940´s: changes in the local / regional environment due to human influence (pollution, poisonous compounds etc.)

n  1960´s: malnutrition and health issues (esp. in Africa) n  1970´s: population growth n  1980´s: early concern about global climate change n  1990´s: operation of the interactive earth system n  2000´s: the many-fold human-nature interaction n  Now?: science-policy interface ~ COP 21 in Paris?

The Achille’s heels causing lack of action (*Käyhkö 2006)

n  Not true! – we do not accept the change as true

n  Consists of a group of ”elsewhere” problems – we do not see the necessity to act

n  Collective ”land of commons” problem – you are not saying that I should act?

n  Complex system, many uncertainties – difficult to solve and understand – we do not know how to act

n  High expenses (socio-economic)– we do not want to act

*Käyhkö, J. (2006). Tiede ja päätöksenteko ympäristökysymyksissä. [Science and decision making in environmental topics]. Niin & Näin 50, 39-46.