Single Table NLHE Tournament EndgameStrategy

Will Tipton

Harvey Mudd College

7 April 2008

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Why We Care

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

No-limit Texas Hold’em

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

No-limit Texas Hold’em

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

No-limit Texas Hold’em

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

No-limit Texas Hold’em

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

No-limit Texas Hold’em

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Chip Equity

Equity is expected money or chips.

Player 3 has

0.14 ∗ 3000 chips = an equity of 420 chips

The expected return or expected value of his play is thus

420− 1410 = −1000 chips

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Chip Equity

Equity is expected money or chips.

Player 3 has

0.14 ∗ 3000 chips = an equity of 420 chips

The expected return or expected value of his play is thus

420− 1410 = −1000 chips

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Chip Equity

Equity is expected money or chips.

Player 3 has

0.14 ∗ 3000 chips = an equity of 420 chips

The expected return or expected value of his play is thus

420− 1410 = −1000 chips

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Equity Calculations

Comparing our expected equities after each of our possiblechoices leads to the best move.

Remaining issues:

What types of decisions will we have?What is the chip equity of each of our choices?How can we translate this into real dollar equity?

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Equity Calculations

Comparing our expected equities after each of our possiblechoices leads to the best move.

Remaining issues:

What types of decisions will we have?

What is the chip equity of each of our choices?How can we translate this into real dollar equity?

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Equity Calculations

Comparing our expected equities after each of our possiblechoices leads to the best move.

Remaining issues:

What types of decisions will we have?What is the chip equity of each of our choices?

How can we translate this into real dollar equity?

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Equity Calculations

Comparing our expected equities after each of our possiblechoices leads to the best move.

Remaining issues:

What types of decisions will we have?What is the chip equity of each of our choices?How can we translate this into real dollar equity?

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Endgame Strategy: Jam or Fold

⇒ Our endgame strategy: push all-in or fold preflop

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

A Chip Equity Calculation

Fold: we have 6600 chips.

Shove:

He folds (85% of the time), we have7800 chips.He calls (top 15%), we have 30% equity.So, we make (0.15)(0.3)(13500) +(0.85)(7800) = 6690 chips.

Notice 6600 < 6690.

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Payout Structure

First place - 50% of prize poolSecond place - 30% of prize poolThird place - 20% of prize pool

⇒ chip equity is not proportional to dollar equity!

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Payout Structure

First place - 50% of prize poolSecond place - 30% of prize poolThird place - 20% of prize pool

⇒ chip equity is not proportional to dollar equity!

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

The Independent Chip Model

Postulate

A player’s chances of winning are directly proportional to the sizeof his chip stack.

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

ICM: What is Player 1’s equity?

Player 1 - 1k chips, Player 2 - 2k chips, Player 3 - 3k chips

1

6(0.5) +

1

3

(1

4(0.3) +

3

4(0.2)

)+

1

2

(1

3(0.3) +

2

3(0.2)

)= 0.283

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy

Summary: High-Blind Strategy

Push all-in or fold immediately.

Estimate opponents’ calling ranges and use the ICM tocalculate the real equity of both actions.

Choose the action leading to the highest equity.

In practice, do these calculations on your own time.

Will Tipton Harvey Mudd College

Single Table NLHE Tournament Endgame Strategy