simulating operation & support costs using system … · scea presentation – june 12 2002 2...

© HVR Consulting Services Ltd

OSCAMOSCAMOSCAMOSCAMOSCAMOSCAMOSCAMOSCAM

Simulating Operation & Simulating Operation & Support Costs Using Support Costs Using

System DynamicsSystem Dynamics

SCEA Presentation – June 12 2002 2

What Is System Dynamics?What Is System Dynamics?

System Dynamics

A Systemic Approach - capturing the “whole”- often high level- includes “management”

Time Evolutionary View- not static - system behaviour

“A Structured Approach To Aid The Understanding Of Complex Systems”


Principles Of System DynamicsPrinciples Of System DynamicsPrinciples Of System DynamicsPrinciples Of System DynamicsPrinciples Of System DynamicsPrinciples Of System DynamicsPrinciples Of System DynamicsPrinciples Of System Dynamics

!! Basic System Behaviour Depends On Basic System Behaviour Depends On Structure And External ShocksStructure And External Shocks

!! Structure Includes:Structure Includes:–– Basic PhysicsBasic Physics–– Time DelaysTime Delays–– Control PoliciesControl Policies

!! Structure Is Described Through The Structure Is Described Through The Identification Of Causal LinksIdentification Of Causal Links

!! Closed Chains Of Cause And Effect Closed Chains Of Cause And Effect Exhibit Feedback BehaviourExhibit Feedback Behaviour


Application Application Application Application Application Application Application Application -------- The SD MethodologyThe SD MethodologyThe SD MethodologyThe SD MethodologyThe SD MethodologyThe SD MethodologyThe SD MethodologyThe SD Methodology

Stage 1Problem Recognition(who cares and why?)

Stage 2Problem Understanding &System Description(Influence Diagrams etc.)

Stage 3Qualitative Analysis(Bright Ideas & Pet Theories,Archetypes, Loop Analysis,Drivers, Debate)

Stage 4Simulation Modelling

Stage 5Policy Testing And Design,Training and Communication


Influence DiagramsInfluence DiagramsInfluence DiagramsInfluence DiagramsInfluence DiagramsInfluence DiagramsInfluence DiagramsInfluence Diagrams

!! A directed graph to represent cause A directed graph to represent cause and effect in a systemand effect in a system

!! Requires a formalism for construction Requires a formalism for construction and analysisand analysis

!! May reveal the likely dynamics of the May reveal the likely dynamics of the system under studysystem under study

!! A precursor to SD simulation models A precursor to SD simulation models and also to communicate simulation and also to communicate simulation model structuremodel structure


Example of an IDExample of an ID

+

_

+

++

_

+

+

+

ExternalTemperature

Desired Temperatureon Thermostat

Difference BetweenInternal and External

Temperatures

Rate of LosingHeat

Temperature Difference to Rate ofLoss of Heat Conversion Factor

Quantity ofHeat in Room

ActualTemperature

in Room

Heat to TemperatureConversion Factor

NegativeFeedback

Loop 2

TemperatureDiscrepancy

Rate of SupplyingHeat

System'Policy'

Power ofthe System

Rate ofArrival ofHeat inRoom

D

NegativeFeedback

Loop 1

_


Benefits Of ID’sBenefits Of ID’sBenefits Of ID’sBenefits Of ID’sBenefits Of ID’sBenefits Of ID’sBenefits Of ID’sBenefits Of ID’s

!! Illustrate the interactions between a Illustrate the interactions between a large number of variableslarge number of variables

!! Can be presented in a nonCan be presented in a non--technical technical wayway

!! Owners of the problem are involved in Owners of the problem are involved in their developmenttheir development

!! Transparency!Transparency!


Operation and Support Cost Operation and Support Cost Operation and Support Cost Operation and Support Cost Operation and Support Cost Operation and Support Cost Operation and Support Cost Operation and Support Cost Analysis ModelAnalysis ModelAnalysis ModelAnalysis ModelAnalysis ModelAnalysis ModelAnalysis ModelAnalysis Model

!! A suite of tools that provides:A suite of tools that provides:–– Business process analysisBusiness process analysis–– A time based simulation of equipment operation A time based simulation of equipment operation

that allows VAMOSC based data bases to be that allows VAMOSC based data bases to be used for forward projectionused for forward projection

–– The ability to assess and understand O&S costs The ability to assess and understand O&S costs and driversand drivers

–– The ability to explore new strategies for reducing The ability to explore new strategies for reducing O&S costsO&S costs

–– A method of prioritising data collectionA method of prioritising data collection–– Tools for data storage and Tools for data storage and disaggregationdisaggregation


Benefits of a Simulation Based Benefits of a Simulation Based Benefits of a Simulation Based Benefits of a Simulation Based Benefits of a Simulation Based Benefits of a Simulation Based Benefits of a Simulation Based Benefits of a Simulation Based ModelModelModelModelModelModelModelModel

!! Calculates many effects, e.g.Calculates many effects, e.g.–– Impact on maintenance of unintended useImpact on maintenance of unintended use–– Effects of scenarios such as warfareEffects of scenarios such as warfare

!! Enables alternative policies to be Enables alternative policies to be explored in terms of their effectsexplored in terms of their effects–– e.g RCMe.g RCM

!! Many of the relationships are Many of the relationships are calculations so can run with minimum calculations so can run with minimum datadata


!! Whole Life Costs for Equipment Approval Committee Whole Life Costs for Equipment Approval Committee submissions submissions -- for examplefor example–– What will the new capability cost and what is the best What will the new capability cost and what is the best

option to meet this requirement ?option to meet this requirement ?!! Research to underpin cost forecasts Research to underpin cost forecasts -- for examplefor example

–– How much will it cost to support naval vessels in the How much will it cost to support naval vessels in the future ?future ?

!! Support to New initiatives Support to New initiatives -- for example for example –– Will RCM or CLS offer savings ? Will RCM or CLS offer savings ?

!! Input to tender assessmentInput to tender assessment–– Which bid is best ?Which bid is best ?

!! Cost forecasting policy formulationCost forecasting policy formulation–– What are the ‘best practice’ processes ?What are the ‘best practice’ processes ?

To do this we need tool sets !

Typical QuestionsTypical QuestionsTypical QuestionsTypical QuestionsTypical QuestionsTypical QuestionsTypical QuestionsTypical Questions


The ship lifetime is divided into a series of equal time intervals (approx. 1 month)

Time

How the model worksHow the model worksHow the model worksHow the model worksHow the model worksHow the model worksHow the model worksHow the model works


Time

Status of ship at time B is

determined by that at A plus/minus

other factors and constraints

How the model worksHow the model worksHow the model worksHow the model worksHow the model worksHow the model worksHow the model worksHow the model works

A B

BBBBBBBBAAAAAAAA


Time

Planned maintenance period

Equipment underextra stress

Early ageing of asset calculatedcalculatedby model leading to earlier overhaul

Time In Operation

For exampleFor exampleFor exampleFor exampleFor exampleFor exampleFor exampleFor example

SCEA Presentation – June 12 2002 141996 199919981997 2000 2001 2002

OSCAM (Ship) & OSCAM (System)NCCA / UK MOD

OSCAM (Land) UK MOD

OSCAM (AAAV) DRPM AAAV

OSCAM (Air) NCCA / NAVAIR

OSCAM Development HistoryOSCAM Development HistoryOSCAM Development HistoryOSCAM Development HistoryOSCAM Development HistoryOSCAM Development HistoryOSCAM Development HistoryOSCAM Development History

OSCAM (USAF) C-17 SPO

OSCAM (FASH) UK MOD


Intermediate Level

Maintenance

ShipyardLevel

Maintenance

Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business processprocessprocessprocessprocessprocessprocessprocess

!! Model consists of a number of sectorsModel consists of a number of sectors


ShipyardLevel

Maintenance

Intermediate Level

MaintenanceRte Shipyard

Complete ActionsCapacity To

Undertake Actions

Rte Incur ShipyardActions Downtime

Duration ofShipyard Actions

Rte IncurShipyard Actions

Cost

Cost / Action

Shipyard Cost/ Sys / Yr

Total SystemsIn Service

Shipyard ActionsOutstanding

Rte Incur ShipyardActions

Shipyard Actions/ Sys / Yr

Total Systems InService

OperationalStress

System Age

+

+

+

+ +

+ +

+

−

+

++ +

+

Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business Representing the business processprocessprocessprocessprocessprocessprocessprocess

!! Each sector has an ‘Influence Diagram’Each sector has an ‘Influence Diagram’


Rate IncurShipyard Actions

Operational Stress

Platform Age+

+

ShipyardCapacity

+

ShipyardActions

Outstanding

Rate ShipyardActions

Completed

++

-

Shipyard ActionsPer Platform Per Year

+

No of shipsin service

+

Shipyard processes OSCAM ID Shipyard processes OSCAM ID Shipyard processes OSCAM ID Shipyard processes OSCAM ID Shipyard processes OSCAM ID Shipyard processes OSCAM ID Shipyard processes OSCAM ID Shipyard processes OSCAM ID (part)(part)(part)(part)(part)(part)(part)(part)


Developing the ModelDeveloping the ModelDeveloping the ModelDeveloping the ModelDeveloping the ModelDeveloping the ModelDeveloping the ModelDeveloping the Model

!! The Influence Diagram is converted into a The Influence Diagram is converted into a ‘Stock Flow Diagram’‘Stock Flow Diagram’

Number ofPlatforms

In Active Use__________

Life Cycle

Start TimeOf 1st Depot Overhaul

Periodicity

Rate IncreaseBacklog

Required RateOf Platform

Overhaul

Backlog ofOverhauls

Actual RateOf Platform

Overhaul

Overhaul TimePer Platform

No. Of Lines

Cost/PlatformOverhaul

Rate IncurPlatform

Overhaul Costs

PlatformAvailableFor Duty

FacilitiesCost Per Line

Rate IncurLine Costs

+

+

+

+

-

++

+

+

DOverhaul Time

++

+

+

+

MaintainersPer Line

+Cost Per

Maintainer

+Threshold Waiting

Time for TemporaryPreservation

Platforms inTemporary Preservation

Temporary PreservationWork off Rate

+

+

-

-

+-

+DM1_DM_Cost_per_Platform

M1_Total_Actual_Rate_of_Depot_Maintenance

DM1_Number_Of_DM_Lines

DM1_Maint_Per_Line DM1_Cost_Per_Maint

DM1_Fac_Cost_Per_LineDM1_Deferal_Period

DM1_Time_Required_Per_DMDM1_Number_Of_DM_Lines

DM1_Out_DM_Ann_Pres_Cost

rte_clr_ann_DM_OH_Cost

rte_clr_ann_SUM_Line_Cost

DM1_out_ann_DM_Cost

DM1_cum_ann_DM_OH_Cost

DM1_out_tot_DM_OH_Cost

DM1_out_ann_DM_Line_Cost

DM1_out_ann_DM_OH_Cost

cum_ann_DM_Line_Cost

DM1_out_tot_DM_Line_CostTot_Aircraft_for_maint_consideration

DM1_rte_incur_DM_Line_Cost

DM1_Total_Required_Rate_of_DMs

DM1_rte_incur_DM_OH_Cost

DM1_Process_Capacity


Overhauls

Facilities TrainingETS

Operating Profile DisposalIntroduction

FuelConsumables

Ordnance

Intermediate AfloatMaint.

Intermediate AshoreMaint.

OrganizationalMaint.

SoftwareManning

Intermediate AfloatMaint.

Intermediate AshoreMaint.

OrganizationalMaint.

Software

Sectors of OSCAM(Ship)Sectors of OSCAM(Ship)Sectors of OSCAM(Ship)Sectors of OSCAM(Ship)Sectors of OSCAM(Ship)Sectors of OSCAM(Ship)Sectors of OSCAM(Ship)Sectors of OSCAM(Ship)


The OSCAM user interface The OSCAM user interface The OSCAM user interface The OSCAM user interface The OSCAM user interface The OSCAM user interface The OSCAM user interface The OSCAM user interface


Data base generation Data base generation Data base generation Data base generation Data base generation Data base generation Data base generation Data base generation -------- the DMTthe DMTthe DMTthe DMTthe DMTthe DMTthe DMTthe DMT


Carriers(8) Combatants(20) Submarines(21) Support(29) Mine Warfare(3)AVT-16CL BB-61CL AGSS-555CL AD-14CL MCM-1CLAVT-59CL CG-16CL SS-576CL AD-37CL MHC-51CLCV-41CL CG-26CL SS-580CL AD-41CL MSO-422CLCV-59CL CG-47CL SSBN-598CL AE-21CL

CV-63CL CGN-09CL SSBN-616CL AE-23CL Patrol(2)CV-67CL CGN-25CL SSBN-627CL AE-26CL PC-1CLCVN-65CL CGN-35CL SSBN-640CL AFS-1CL PHM-1CLCVN-68CL CGN-36CL SSBN-726CL AGDS-2CL

CGN-38CL SSN-575CL AO-177CL

Amphibs(14) DD-963CL SSN-578CL AO-51CLAGF-03CL DDG-2CL SSN-585CL AOE-1CLAGF-11CL DDG-37CL SSN-594CL AOE-6CLLCC-19CL DDG-51CL SSN-597CL AOR-1CLLHA-1CL DDG-993CL SSN-608CL AR-05CLLHD-1CL FF-1037CL SSN-637CL ARL-1CLLKA-113CL FF-1040CL SSN-640CL ARS-38CLLPD-1CL FF-1052CL SSN-671CL ARS-50CLLPD-4CL FF-1098CL SSN-685CL ARS-6CLLPH-2CL FFG-1CL SSN-688CL1 AS-11CLLSD-28CL FFG-7CL SSN-688CL2 AS-19CLLSD-36CL SSN-688CL3 AS-31CLLSD-41CL AS-33CLLSD-49CL AS-36CLLST-1179CL AS-39CL

ASR-07CLASR-21CLATF-148CLATS-1CLAVM-1CL

OSCAM(Ship) historical data setsOSCAM(Ship) historical data setsOSCAM(Ship) historical data setsOSCAM(Ship) historical data setsOSCAM(Ship) historical data setsOSCAM(Ship) historical data setsOSCAM(Ship) historical data setsOSCAM(Ship) historical data sets


OSCAM outputsOSCAM outputsOSCAM outputsOSCAM outputsOSCAM outputsOSCAM outputsOSCAM outputsOSCAM outputs

!! Two main categories:Two main categories:–– CostCost

•• cumulative and currentcumulative and current•• summary and detailedsummary and detailed•• constant or then year £/$constant or then year £/$

–– AvailabilityAvailability•• based on system uptime metrics e.g. materially based on system uptime metrics e.g. materially

available vessel days (naval models) or system available vessel days (naval models) or system downtimedowntime

•• simple availability measures aiming to highlight cost simple availability measures aiming to highlight cost trade offstrade offs


OSCAM Application OSCAM Application OSCAM Application OSCAM Application OSCAM Application OSCAM Application OSCAM Application OSCAM Application -------- TTTTTTTT--------AKEAKEAKEAKEAKEAKEAKEAKE

!! The Office of the Secretary of Defense The Office of the Secretary of Defense mandated that the Tmandated that the T--AKE program address AKE program address Total Ownership Cost (TOC) in the solicitationTotal Ownership Cost (TOC) in the solicitation

!! The TThe T--AKE program office approached NCCA AKE program office approached NCCA to learn more about the Visibility and to learn more about the Visibility and Management of Operating and Support Costs Management of Operating and Support Costs (VAMOSC) database and OSCAM(VAMOSC) database and OSCAM

!! The TThe T--AKE program office then mandated that AKE program office then mandated that OSCAM form the basis for its O&S estimate OSCAM form the basis for its O&S estimate and each of the bidder’s O&S estimatesand each of the bidder’s O&S estimates


OSCAM ApplicationOSCAM ApplicationOSCAM ApplicationOSCAM ApplicationOSCAM ApplicationOSCAM ApplicationOSCAM ApplicationOSCAM Application

!! OSCAM was used by the TOSCAM was used by the T--AKE program AKE program office and the source selection team in the office and the source selection team in the following ways:following ways:–– To develop and maintain the program office’s cost To develop and maintain the program office’s cost

estimateestimate–– To validate each of the cost proposalsTo validate each of the cost proposals–– To compare each cost proposal toTo compare each cost proposal to

•• Other proposalsOther proposals•• The program office’s estimateThe program office’s estimate•• Analogous ship classesAnalogous ship classes

–– To perform sensitivity analyses on each of the To perform sensitivity analyses on each of the estimatesestimates

! OSCAM mandated to form the basis of all O&S estimates



!! OSCAM was applied in the following ways OSCAM was applied in the following ways during the Tduring the T--AKE solicitation:AKE solicitation:–– The program office required the bidders to use The program office required the bidders to use

OSCAM in their proposalsOSCAM in their proposals–– Only the primary data fields were usedOnly the primary data fields were used–– The inputs were divided into two categories:The inputs were divided into two categories:

•• Government definedGovernment defined•• Contractor definedContractor defined

–– The bidders provided the OSCAM data files with The bidders provided the OSCAM data files with their cost proposalstheir cost proposals



Government DefinedGovernment Defined!! Operating ProfileOperating Profile!! Hours, repair parts, Hours, repair parts,

and and repairablesrepairables per per actionaction

!! Repair part and Repair part and repairablesrepairables costscosts

!! Cost per barrel of fuelCost per barrel of fuel!! Maintenance cycleMaintenance cycle!! Etc.Etc.

Contractor DefinedContractor Defined!! Crew sizeCrew size!! Fuel consumptionFuel consumption!! Maintenance actionsMaintenance actions!! Training costsTraining costs!! POL costsPOL costs!! Publications costsPublications costs!! Supplies CostsSupplies Costs!! Ship WeightShip Weight!! Etc.Etc.


TTTTTTTT--------AKE Lessons LearnedAKE Lessons LearnedAKE Lessons LearnedAKE Lessons LearnedAKE Lessons LearnedAKE Lessons LearnedAKE Lessons LearnedAKE Lessons Learned

!! Extremely rapid method to analyse cost Extremely rapid method to analyse cost proposalsproposals

!! Minimal amount of effortMinimal amount of effort–– 1 person for 3 weeks1 person for 3 weeks–– only experience was training courseonly experience was training course

!! Consistent, standardised tool & terminologyConsistent, standardised tool & terminology!! Facilitated communicationFacilitated communication!! Focused attention on key O&S costsFocused attention on key O&S costs


Other US InitiativesOther US InitiativesOther US InitiativesOther US InitiativesOther US InitiativesOther US InitiativesOther US InitiativesOther US Initiatives

!! AAAV AAAV -- own model for this programown model for this program!! DefenseDefense Acquisition University (DAU) is Acquisition University (DAU) is

developing its own O&S coursedeveloping its own O&S course–– introduction & overview of OSCAM being introduction & overview of OSCAM being

incorporated into this courseincorporated into this course!! OSCAM(Air) Model completeOSCAM(Air) Model complete

–– Naval Air Systems Command briefed late June Naval Air Systems Command briefed late June 20012001

–– CC--17 & F17 & F--22 programs adopted OSCAM(Air) early 22 programs adopted OSCAM(Air) early June 2001June 2001


!! The AAAV will replace The AAAV will replace the AAV as the the AAV as the Marines’ primary Marines’ primary combat vehicle for combat vehicle for transporting troops on transporting troops on land and from ship to land and from ship to shoreshore

!! The AAAV program The AAAV program office has developed its office has developed its own OSCAM(AAAV) own OSCAM(AAAV) modelmodel–– Verified & Validated in Verified & Validated in

May 2001May 2001

OSCAM in the U.S.M.C.OSCAM in the U.S.M.C.OSCAM in the U.S.M.C.OSCAM in the U.S.M.C.OSCAM in the U.S.M.C.OSCAM in the U.S.M.C.OSCAM in the U.S.M.C.OSCAM in the U.S.M.C.


!! The Defense Acquisition University The Defense Acquisition University (DAU) is developing an Operating and (DAU) is developing an Operating and Support (O&S) training courseSupport (O&S) training course–– An introduction and overview of OSCAM An introduction and overview of OSCAM

is being incorporated into the courseis being incorporated into the course–– This is encouraging that O&S has gained This is encouraging that O&S has gained

enough attention to develop a dedicated enough attention to develop a dedicated coursecourse

OSCAM in the DAUOSCAM in the DAUOSCAM in the DAUOSCAM in the DAUOSCAM in the DAUOSCAM in the DAUOSCAM in the DAUOSCAM in the DAU


!! The CThe C--17 and F17 and F--22 22 SPOs SPOs have decided to have decided to use OSCAMuse OSCAM

!! They plan to tailor the They plan to tailor the existing OSCAM(Air) existing OSCAM(Air) model for their needsmodel for their needs

!! Contracting is in Contracting is in progressprogress

OSCAM in the U.S. Air ForceOSCAM in the U.S. Air ForceOSCAM in the U.S. Air ForceOSCAM in the U.S. Air ForceOSCAM in the U.S. Air ForceOSCAM in the U.S. Air ForceOSCAM in the U.S. Air ForceOSCAM in the U.S. Air Force


Strengths of OSCAMStrengths of OSCAMStrengths of OSCAMStrengths of OSCAMStrengths of OSCAMStrengths of OSCAMStrengths of OSCAMStrengths of OSCAM

!! Dynamic, time based simulationDynamic, time based simulation!! Full O&S coverageFull O&S coverage!! Direct access to historical data sets and Direct access to historical data sets and

the ability to project forward from themthe ability to project forward from them!! Means of identifying key data and cost Means of identifying key data and cost

research requirementsresearch requirements!! Standardised, yet flexible approach to Standardised, yet flexible approach to

estimating/analysing O&S costs for new estimating/analysing O&S costs for new and inand in--service equipmentservice equipment

!! Facilitates understanding of O&S activities Facilitates understanding of O&S activities and initiatives and their interdependenciesand initiatives and their interdependencies


OSCAM in the UKOSCAM in the UKOSCAM in the UKOSCAM in the UKOSCAM in the UKOSCAM in the UKOSCAM in the UKOSCAM in the UK

!! CVFCVF–– SPS establishing baselineSPS establishing baseline–– BAE SYSTEMS trained and usingBAE SYSTEMS trained and using

!! FSCFSC!! FASMFASM!! Hunt RCM studyHunt RCM study!! TerrierTerrier!! FCLVFCLV

simulating operation & support costs using system … · scea presentation – june 12 2002 2...

Documents