should there be a risk premium for foreign...
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Shouldtherebeariskpremiumforforeignprojects?¨ Theexchangerateriskshouldbediversifiablerisk(andhence
shouldnotcommandapremium)if¤ thecompanyhasprojectsisalargenumberofcountries(or)¤ theinvestorsinthecompanyaregloballydiversified.¤ ForDisney,thisriskshouldnotaffectthecostofcapitalused.
Consequently,wewouldnotadjustthecostofcapitalforDisney’sinvestmentsinothermaturemarkets(Germany,UK,France)
¨ ThesamediversificaJonargumentcanalsobeappliedagainstsomepoliJcalrisk,whichwouldmeanthatittooshouldnotaffectthediscountrate.However,thereareaspectsofpoliJcalriskespeciallyinemergingmarketsthatwillbedifficulttodiversifyandmayaffectthecashflows,byreducingtheexpectedlifeorcashflowsontheproject.
¨ ForDisney,thisistheriskthatweareincorporaJngintothecostofcapitalwhenitinvestsinBrazil(oranyotheremergingmarket)
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EsJmaJngahurdlerateforRioDisney
¨ WedidesJmateacostofcapitalof6.61%fortheDisneythemeparkbusiness,usingaboVom-upleveredbetaof0.7537forthebusiness.
¨ ThiscostofequitymaynotadequatelyreflecttheaddiJonalriskassociatedwiththethemeparkbeinginanemergingmarket.
¨ TheonlyconcernwewouldhavewithusingthiscostofequityforthisprojectisthatitmaynotadequatelyreflecttheaddiJonalriskassociatedwiththethemeparkbeinginanemergingmarket(Brazil).WefirstcomputedtheBrazilcountryriskpremium(bymulJplyingthedefaultspreadforBrazilbytherelaJveequitymarketvolaJlity)andthenre-esJmatedthecostofequity:¤ CountryriskpremiumforBrazil=5.5%+3%=8.5%¤ CostofEquityinUS$=2.75%+0.7537(8.5%)=9.16%
¨ UsingthisesJmateofthecostofequity,Disney’sthemeparkdebtraJoof10.24%anditsader-taxcostofdebtof2.40%(seechapter4),wecanesJmatethecostofcapitalfortheproject:¤ CostofCapitalinUS$=9.16%(0.8976)+2.40%(0.1024)=8.46%
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Wouldleadustoconcludethat...
¨ Donotinvestinthispark.Thereturnoncapitalof4.18%islowerthanthecostofcapitalforthemeparksof8.46%;Thiswouldsuggestthattheprojectshouldnotbetaken.
¨ Giventhatwehavecomputedtheaverageoveranarbitraryperiodof10years,whilethethemeparkitselfwouldhavealifegreaterthan10years,wouldyoufeelcomfortablewiththisconclusion?¤ Yes¤ No
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ATangent:FromNewtoExisJngInvestments:ROCfortheenJrefirm
Assets Liabilities
Assets in Place Debt
Equity
Fixed Claim on cash flowsLittle or No role in managementFixed MaturityTax Deductible
Residual Claim on cash flowsSignificant Role in managementPerpetual Lives
Growth Assets
Existing InvestmentsGenerate cashflows todayIncludes long lived (fixed) and
short-lived(working capital) assets
Expected Value that will be created by future investments
How “good” are the existing investments of the firm?
Measuring ROC for existing investments..
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Oldwineinanewbo,le..Anotherwayofpresen6ngthesameresults…¨ Thekeytovalueisearningexcessreturns.Over6me,therehavebeen
a,emptstorestatethisobviousfactinnewanddifferentways.Forinstance,EconomicValueAdded(EVA)developedawidefollowinginthethe1990s:
¨ EVA=(ROC–CostofCapital)(BookValueofCapitalInvested)¨ Theexcessreturnsforthefourfirmscanberestatedasfollows:
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ReturnSpreadsGlobally….217
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6ApplicaJonTest:AssessingInvestmentQuality
¨ Forthemostrecentperiodforwhichyouhavedata,computetheader-taxreturnoncapitalearnedbyyourfirm,whereader-taxreturnoncapitaliscomputedtobe
¨ Ader-taxROC=EBIT(1-taxrate)/(BVofdebt+BVofEquity-Cash)previousyear
¨ Forthemostrecentperiodforwhichyouhavedata,computethereturnspreadearnedbyyourfirm:
¨ ReturnSpread=Ader-taxROC-CostofCapital¨ Forthemostrecentperiod,computetheEVAearnedbyyourfirmEVA=ReturnSpread*((BVofdebt+BVofEquity-
Cash)previousyear
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Thecashflowviewofthisproject..
To get from income to cash flow, weI. added back all non-cash charges such as depreciation. Tax
benefits:II. subtracted out the capital expendituresIII. subtracted out the change in non-cash working capital
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
After-tax Operating Income -$32 -$96 -$54 $68 $202 $249 $299 $352 $410 $421 + Depreciation & Amortization $0 $50 $425 $469 $444 $372 $367 $364 $364 $366 $368 - Capital Expenditures $2,500 $1,000 $1,188 $752 $276 $258 $285 $314 $330 $347 $350
- Change in non-cash Work Capital $0 $63 $25 $38 $31 $16 $17 $19 $21 $5
Cashflow to firm ($2,500) ($982) ($921) ($361) $198 $285 $314 $332 $367 $407 $434
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TheDepreciaJonTaxBenefit
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¨ WhiledepreciaJonreducestaxableincomeandtaxes,itdoesnotreducethecashflows.
¨ ThebenefitofdepreciaJonisthereforethetaxbenefit.Ingeneral,thetaxbenefitfromdepreciaJoncanbewriVenas:
¨ TaxBenefit=DepreciaJon*TaxRate¨ DisneyThemePark:DepreciaJontaxsavings(Taxrate=36.1%)
¨ ProposiJon1:ThetaxbenefitfromdepreciaJonandothernon-cashchargesisgreater,thehigheryourtaxrate.
¨ ProposiJon2:Non-cashchargesthatarenottaxdeducJble(suchasamorJzaJonofgoodwill)andthusprovidenotaxbenefitshavenoeffectoncashflows.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Depreciation $50 $425 $469 $444 $372 $367 $364 $364 $366 $368Tax Bendfits from Depreciation $18 $153 $169 $160 $134 $132 $132 $132 $132 $133
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DepreciaJonMethods
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¨ Broadlycategorizing,depreciaJonmethodscanbeclassifiedasstraightlineoracceleratedmethods.InstraightlinedepreciaJon,thecapitalexpenseisspreadevenlyoverJme,InaccelerateddepreciaJon,thecapitalexpenseisdepreciatedmoreinearlieryearsandlessinlateryears.Assumethatyoumadealargeinvestmentthisyear,andthatyouarechoosingbetweenstraightlineandaccelerateddepreciaJonmethods.Whichwillresultinhighernetincomethisyear?¤ StraightLineDepreciaJon¤ AcceleratedDepreciaJon
¨ Whichwillresultinhighercashflowsthisyear?¤ StraightLineDepreciaJon¤ AcceleratedDepreciaJon
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TheCapitalExpendituresEffect
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¨ CapitalexpendituresarenottreatedasaccounJngexpensesbuttheydocausecashouslows.
¨ Capitalexpenditurescangenerallybecategorizedintotwogroups¤ New(orGrowth)capitalexpendituresarecapitalexpenditures
designedtocreatenewassetsandfuturegrowth¤ Maintenancecapitalexpendituresrefertocapitalexpenditures
designedtokeepexisJngassets.¨ BothiniJalandmaintenancecapitalexpendituresreduce
cashflows¨ Theneedformaintenancecapitalexpenditureswillincrease
withthelifeoftheproject.Inotherwords,a25-yearprojectwillrequiremoremaintenancecapitalexpendituresthana2-yearproject.
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Tocapexornottocapex?
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¨ Assumethatyourunyourownsodwarebusiness,andthatyouhaveanexpensethisyearof$100millionfromproducinganddistribuJonpromoJonalCDsinsodwaremagazines.Youraccountanttellsyouthatyoucanexpensethisitemorcapitalizeanddepreciateitoverthreeyears.WhichwillhaveamoreposiJveeffectonincome?¤ Expenseit¤ CapitalizeandDepreciateit
¨ WhichwillhaveamoreposiJveeffectoncashflows?¤ Expenseit¤ CapitalizeandDepreciateit
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TheWorkingCapitalEffect
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¨ IntuiJvely,moneyinvestedininventoryorinaccountsreceivablecannotbeusedelsewhere.It,thus,representsadrainoncashflows
¨ Tothedegreethatsomeoftheseinvestmentscanbefinancedusingsuppliercredit(accountspayable),thecashflowdrainisreduced.
¨ Investmentsinworkingcapitalarethuscashouslows¤ Anyincreaseinworkingcapitalreducescashflowsinthatyear¤ Anydecreaseinworkingcapitalincreasescashflowsinthatyear
¨ Toprovideclosure,workingcapitalinvestmentsneedtobesalvagedattheendoftheprojectlife.
¨ ProposiJon1:ThefailuretoconsiderworkingcapitalinacapitalbudgeJngprojectwilloverstatecashflowsonthatprojectandmakeitlookmoreaVracJvethanitreallyis.
¨ ProposiJon2:Otherthingsheldequal,areducJoninworkingcapitalrequirementswillincreasethecashflowsonallprojectsforafirm.
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Theincrementalcashflowsontheproject
$ 500 million has already been spent & $ 50 million in depreciation will exist anyway
2/3rd of allocated G&A is fixed.Add back this amount (1-t)Tax rate = 36.1%
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Amoredirectwayofgetngtoincrementalcashflows
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Revenues $0 $1,250 $1,750 $2,500 $3,125 $3,438 $3,781 $4,159 $4,575 $4,667 Direct Expenses $0 $788 $1,103 $1,575 $1,969 $2,166 $2,382 $2,620 $2,882 $2,940 Incremental Depreciation $0 $375 $419 $394 $322 $317 $314 $314 $316 $318 Incremental G&A $0 $63 $88 $125 $156 $172 $189 $208 $229 $233 Incremental Operating Income $0 $25 $141 $406 $678 $783 $896 $1,017 $1,148 $1,175 - Taxes $0 $9 $51 $147 $245 $283 $323 $367 $415 $424 Incremental after-tax Operating income $0 $16 $90 $260 $433 $500 $572 $650 $734 $751 + Incremental Depreciation $0 $375 $419 $394 $322 $317 $314 $314 $316 $318 - Capital Expenditures $2,000 $1,000 $1,188 $752 $276 $258 $285 $314 $330 $347 $350 - Change in non-cash Working Capital $0 $63 $25 $38 $31 $16 $17 $19 $21 $5 Cashflow to firm ($2,000) ($1,000) ($859) ($267) $340 $466 $516 $555 $615 $681 $715
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SunkCosts
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¨ Whatisasunkcost?Anyexpenditurethathasalreadybeenincurred,andcannotberecovered(evenifaprojectisrejected)iscalledasunkcost.AtestmarketforaconsumerproductandR&Dexpensesforadrug(forapharmaceuJcalcompany)wouldbegoodexamples.
¨ Thesunkcostrule:Whenanalyzingaproject,sunkcostsshouldnotbeconsideredsincetheyarenotincremental.
¨ ABehavioralAside:Itisawellestablishedfindinginpsychologicalandbehavioralresearchthatmanagersfinditalmostimpossibletoignoresunkcosts.
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TestMarkeJngandR&D:TheQuandaryofSunkCosts
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¨ Aconsumerproductcompanyhasspent$100millionontestmarkeJng.Lookingatonlytheincrementalcashflows(andignoringthetestmarkeJng),theprojectlookslikeitwillcreate$25millioninvalueforthecompany.Shouldittaketheinvestment?¤ Yes¤ No
¨ NowassumethateveryinvestmentthatthiscompanyhassharesthesamecharacterisJcs(Sunkcosts>ValueAdded).Thefirmwillclearlynotbeabletosurvive.WhatisthesoluJontothisproblem?
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AllocatedCosts
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¨ Firmsallocatecoststoindividualprojectsfromacentralizedpool(suchasgeneralandadministraJveexpenses)baseduponsomecharacterisJcoftheproject(salesisacommonchoice,asisearnings)
¨ Forlargefirms,theseallocatedcostscanbesignificantandresultintherejecJonofprojects
¨ Tothedegreethatthesecostsarenotincremental(andwouldexistanyway),thismakesthefirmworseoff.Thus,itisonlytheincrementalcomponentofallocatedcoststhatshouldshowupinprojectanalysis.
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BreakingoutG&ACostsintofixedandvariablecomponents:Asimpleexample
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¨ AssumethatyouhaveaJmeseriesofrevenuesandG&Acostsforacompany.
¤ WhatpercentageoftheG&Acostisvariable?
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ToTime-WeightedCashFlows
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¨ Incrementalcashflowsintheearlieryearsareworthmorethanincrementalcashflowsinlateryears.
¨ Infact,cashflowsacrossJmecannotbeaddedup.TheyhavetobebroughttothesamepointinJmebeforeaggregaJon.
¨ ThisprocessofmovingcashflowsthroughJmeis¤ discounJng,whenfuturecashflowsarebroughttothepresent
¤ compounding,whenpresentcashflowsaretakentothefuture
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PresentValueMechanics
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¨ CashFlowType DiscounJngFormula CompoundingFormula1.SimpleCF CFn/(1+r)n CF0(1+r)n
2.Annuity 3.GrowingAnnuity4.Perpetuity A/r5.GrowingPerpetuity ExpectedCashflownextyear/(r-g)
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