Short-term Weather Forecasting for Disaster Preparedness in VenezuelaINGRID GARCIA-SOLERADEPARTMENT OF RISK MANAGEMENT, MARACAIBO, VENEZUELA; THE CENTER OF SCIENTIFIC MODELING; LATIN AMERICAN OBSERVA-TORY OF EXTREME EVENTSSouth America l Disaster Risk Reduction

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INTRODUCTIONThe Department of Risk Management of Maracaibo in the Zulia state of Venezuela distributes a Meteorological News Bulletin that details the local and regional weather forecast for a three-day time horizon. The bulletin explains current daily precipitation as well as forecasted cumulative precipitation, relative humidity, wind, and temperature. In addition to forecast information, the bulletin provides recommendations regarding disaster prevention measures, which are meant for local government agencies and national-level interest groups. The Meteorological News Bulletin reaches key socioeconomic sectors and decision makers, and is an important link in the chain of climate information dissemination throughout western Venezuela.

The Department of Risk Management falls within the Civil Protection and Disaster Administration in the municipality of Maracaibo. This bulletin, however, extends beyond Maracaibo in geographic scope and provides data for the entirety of the state of Zulia and the municipalities within it. This case study focuses primarily on the municipalities of Maracaibo and Guajira.

Information used in this initiative comes primarily from two institutions within the Observatorio Latinoamericano de Eventos Extraordinarios (Latin America Observatory of Extraordinary Events, OLE ) network: the Center of Scientific Modeling (CMC) of Zulia University, and the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Venezuela (INAMEH). The bulletin specifically relies on the weather products available on the OLE web portal and in the Observatory’s Climate Bulletin.

The bulletins were originally created in 2007 by Roberto J. Rodriguez, who was then the coordinator of the Department of Risk Management of Maracaibo. These bulletins continue to be produced and distributed under the leadership of Rodriguez, who edits the climate projections and produces the bulletin, and with the continuous support of CMC.

SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUNDThe northern region of the Zulia State has two reservoirs, Manuelote and Tulé, both within the Mara municipality (Figure 1).

In the past, the containing walls of both reservoirs have broken during heavy rain events, resulting in riparian flooding and severe inundation in the surrounding areas of Guajira. Heavy rainfall can also lead to flooding in urban areas because the region’s drainage system is inadequate and poorly maintained.

Due to the rains throughout the municipality of Guajira in December 2011, for example, flooding as high as 1.3 meters caused damage to housing and street infrastructure. The flood also caused the electric, phone, and potable water services to be suspended. The same heavy rains also affected the Las Navas region of Maracaibo, creating mudslides and overwhelming the drainage system. The resulting flood carried refuge into the streets, affecting transportation infrastructure, damaging over 10,000 homes, and causing four deaths (Image 1).

Such flood events also affect the public health sector, as they cause an increase in the occurrence of diseases such as malaria, dengue, cholera, leptospirosis, and yellow fever.

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Figure 1: Reservoirs (embalses) in Mara. Mara is located in the northwest region of Zulia and is bordered by La Guajira municipality to the north, the Jesús Enrique Losada and Maracaibo municipalities (not pictured here) to the south, Maracaibo Lake to the east, and the Republic of Colombia to the west (Rodriguez 2012).2

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TARGET AUDIENCEThe Meteorological News Bulletin is most influential on the municipal level. When the bulletin was in its earlier stages, it was sent primarily to the Marcaibo City Hall and fire department, which used the information to support decision making and planning. Assuming a proactive (as opposed to reactive) approach to disaster management allowed the both actors to minimize their financial expenditure and safeguard the community. Soon after, government officials at the Guajira City Hall approached Rodriguez and also expressed interest in the bulletin. Guajira has since become an active user of the Meteorological News Bulletin, which serves as an important tool for disaster mitigation in the region.

The bulletin also informs decision making at the national level. Organizations such as Petroleum of Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) use the bulletin’s information to guide their daily offshore operations and minimize the risk of weather-related accidents. The Venezuelan Hydrated Alcohol Manufacturer (PRALCA) is a public sector petrochemical company that similarly uses the bulletin to prepare in advance of strong electric storms.

Today, Rodriguez distributes the news bulletin by email to 217 recipients, and his user list continues to expand.

CLIMATE AND CONTEXTUAL INFORMATIONThe climate of Venezuela varies seasonally: the dry season lasts from November to March, while the longer rainy season, which brings frequent and intense precipitation events, lasts from April to November. The Maracaibo Lake basin also experiences climate variability due to the effects of geography: the Maracaibo Lake, the Andes mountain range, and the Perijá mountain range are particularly influential. Most of the yearly precipitation occurs to the south of the lake, with more than 2.800 mm/year. Lastly, Venezuela also experiences El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the effects of which have a major influence on Venezuelan society (Las lecciones de El Niño, 1997-98).

Abnormally high precipitation events in the northwestern region of Venezuela are responsible for yearly flooding and mudslides, which have been more common in the past decade (Figure 2). The Meteorological News Bulletin specifically focuses on the factors that influence these disasters, and provide decision makers with the necessary tools to monitor weather events, fortify preparatory measures and safeguard communities.

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Image 1: Citizens transporting one of the flood victims (La Radio del Sur 2011).

Figure 2. Annual floods and mudslides in the northwestern region of Venezuela from 1960-2009 (Campos, Jose Miguel and Lelvs Bravo de Guenni 2011)

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Rodriguez creates the Meteorological News Bulletin every three days based information obtained through the websites of organizations within the OLE network: the Center for Scientific Modeling (CMC), the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Venezuela (INAMEH), University Center of the Coast, Bolivarian Aviation Meteorological Service, and the Institute for Hydrology, Meteorology, and Environmental Studies of Colombia (IDEAM). Additional institutions contributing data include the Weather Channel and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The majority of the data used for the bulletin are provided by CMC and INAMEH. The bulletin is edited without any formal funding, as both institutions have agreed to provide the necessary resources for free on their respective websites.

In addition to the climate information published in the bulletins, Rodriguez also provides explanation for the maps. He uses simplified language to ensure the information’s accessibility to all users, even those without a scientific background.

When the climatic projections show an extreme event for the region, such as higher than normal precipitation, the Department of Risk Management warns the director of civil protection of Maracaibo. The director then calls a meeting to discuss the possibility of raising an alert. If the meeting committee decides that an alert is necessary, they notify the mayor of Maracaibo, who is responsible for warning the community about the potential extreme event. If the mayor does not support an alert announcement, the Department of Civil Protection and other local groups (the fire department, the police department, and community volunteers) will take basic measures to prepare for the forecasted weather. If the mayor approves the alert, however, larger-scale preparatory measures are put into place: The city’s drainage system is cleared so as to prevent flooding and all potentially dangerous regions are evacuated.

The extreme precipitation event in 2011 illustrates an instance in which the Meteorological News Bulletins were used by the local government. In September, the CMC presented an “Extraordinary Bulletin”, suggesting the possibility of above-normal precipitations for the end of the year. Rodriguez incorporated this forecast into his News Bulletin, warning that the rivers were expected to swell, with a high probability of overflow causing floods in the Guajira plains and threatening the surrounding communities. Rodriguez then travelled to Guajira to set up a situation room in Guajira’s City Hall, working with Cesar Colmenares, director of the Civil Protection and Disaster Administration Organization of Guajira, and Dr. Hebert Chacón, mayor of the Bolivarian Indigenous Municipality of Guajira. The team immediately took the necessary measures to monitor the impending weather and prepare for the expected events. This mainly involved communicating with community leaders, who arranged a pick-up location for evacuation, and set up a safe room with food, water, and medical supplies for the evacuated community members.

IMPLEMENTATIONPROCESSES AND MECHANISMS

STAKEHOLDER AND ISSUE IDENTIFICATIONThe bulletins were first published in 2007 with the initiative of Roberto J. Rodriguez, the coordinator of the Department of Risk Management

of Maracaibo. They continue today under the leadership of Rodriguez, who edits the climate projections and produces the bulletin.

Various information providers within the OLE network are involved with the production of the bulletin. The primary contributors, however, are CMC and INAMEH.

OLE is a regional collaborative network aimed at increasing the efficiency of the decision-making processes throughout Latin America. Specifically, OLE is focused on obtaining accurate environmental information and encouraging organizations within its network to exchange experiences regarding methodologies and scientific products. The partners of this collaboration involve national weather services, airport authorities, universities, and research institutes from Central America, the Andean countries, and from southeast South America.

Presently, OLE is coordinated by the Center of Scientific Modeling (CMC) of the Universidad del Zulia, in Venezuela. CMC is also one of the main contributors to the Meteorological News Bulletin initiative and is responsible for providing the weather model outputs, which are focal point of the bulletin. CMC has also provided Rodriguez with the training needed to interpret the CMC’s climatic models and a laptop for Rodriguez’s work.

INAMEH is the national meteorological service of Venezuela, a partner within the OLE network, and the other main source of data used in the bulletin. INAMEH functions mostly on the national level and was established in 2009 to regulate and provide weather and climatic information for Venezuela. However, it also regulates the information incorporated into bulletin and ensures data quality before Rodriguez distributes the bulletin to the target audience. INAMEH aims to establish regional offices and work with organizations such as the local branches of Civil Protection in producing regional weather bulletins similar to the one produced by Rodriguez.

The bulletin was conceived after a heavy rainfall event in August 2007, which was associated with Hurricane Dean (Category 5) and hit the northwestern states of Venezuela. The affected population in the city of Maracaibo was evacuated and relocated temporary at the Simón Bolivar Planetarium (SBP), on the northern outskirts of the city. The Department of Civil Protection designated Rodríguez as the person responsible for coordinating evacuated individuals in the planetarium. In the planetarium, he met Professor Ángel G. Muñoz, the deputy director of CMC, who was in charge of monitoring and forecasting the precipitation tendencies using locally executed, high-resolution weather models.

Rodríguez and Muñoz worked to provide evacuation plans after the proper analysis of their weather models, and their efforts helped hundreds of people in the region. Although the Department of Civil Protection is the primary decision maker in emergency situations like the rains of 2007, in this particular instance CMC’s products and synoptic analyses were critical in safeguarding the population. Their weather projections indicated prolonged danger and evacuated individuals therefore remained at the SBP instead of returning to their homes as was initially planned by the Department of Civil Protection.

This successful experience not only established the cornerstone of the operative Meteorological News Bulletin (coordinated since then by Roberto Rodríguez), but also established the creation of a national-wide initiative that involved the National Weather Service

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and many other institutions. The initiative extended in different ways to several Latin American countries, officially becoming the Observatorio Latinoamericano de Eventos Extraordinarios (OLE ) in 2010. Today, the OLE partnership supports Rodriguez and ensures the continuation of his work.

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENTRodriguez produces the bulletin every three days, and when the forecast shows a high probability for above-average precipitation, he warns the director of Civil Protection of Maracaibo. The director then communicates the events to the Maracaibo mayor so that he or she can take preventive measures.

Rodriguez also communicates and works closely with the mayor of the Guajira municipality. Extreme precipitation events often flood the Guajira plains, because of its flat topography and the many rivers in the area. When the forecasts indicates higher than average precipitation, the mayor of Guajira meets with Rodriquez to develop an evacuation plan for all those living in Guajira’s flood-prone areas.

The Bulletin begins with a colored alert statement based on the level of danger posed by the present and projected climatic conditions (Figures 3 and 4). The first five pages are dedicated to model projections made by OLE and CMC and explain current daily precipitation along with forecasted precipitation (24, 48, and 72 hours in advance), relative humidity, low winds, and temperature. The last pages of the bulletin are dedicated to advice and recommendations regarding preparatory actions to be taken according to the climatic conditions observed. Contact information for Maracaibo’s Civil Protection and other emergency numbers are also provided.

Certain parts of the bulletin, such as heat alerts, intense precipitation, and the approach of a tropical wave, are also disseminated using Rodriguez’s Twitter and Facebook social media network.

The evacuation planning system illustrates the ways in which the bulletin information is spread and utilized. When higher than normal precipitation is forecasted, Rodriguez discusses the uncertainty of the forecast with CMC and INAMEH. If action seems necessary, Rodriguez travels to Guajira where he sets up a situation room used to plan an evacuation scheme for Guajira’s citizens endangered by the flood. Rodriguez works with Guajira’s mayor and the Guajira branch of the Department of Civil Protection. They maintain telephone communication with the military forces, healthcare providers, and local leaders of different communities in the Guajira region. Rodriguez remains in the region until evacuation measures have been taken and the safety of the community has been ensured.

During extreme events when evacuation is necessary, military forces play an important role in maintaining the peace. Constant communication with community leaders (oftentimes teachers or priests) is also crucial, especially because communities throughout Guajira are located distant from one another and are sometimes difficult to reach. Is very important that these appointed leaders communicate with the situation room if an evacuation occurs or if they have other food, drinking water, or medical needs.

FUNDING MECHANISMSInformation is collected and edited for the bulletin formal funding, and each contributing institution has agreed to freely providing the necessary resources. The production of the bulletin therefore depends on the funding obtained by each participating institution, CMC and INAMEH.

CMC is a research and development institution attached to the University of Zulia in Maracaibo, Venezuela. CMC’s funding for OLE products, such as the bulletin, is mainly obtained through grant money. Meanwhile, INAMEH receives support from the central government. However, funds are limited, which in turn limits the ability of INAMEH to contribute to the bulletin effort.

Because the bulletin requires such little funding support, financial sustainability is not a major concern in its continuation and the bulletin is beginning to be scaled up through the OLE network. Rodriguez receives feedback from OLE stakeholders, and he has been increasingly in communication with IDEAM and the University Center of the Coast.

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Figure 3: A page from the News Bulletin with information for the Maracaibo Municipality (Rodriguez 2012)

Figure 4: A page from the News Bulletin showing three projections for daily cumulative precipitation for 24, 48, and 72 hours (Rodriguez 2012)

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Meanwhile, the Civil Protection and Disaster Administration is funded on a regional basis by the national government. Regional departments in turn distribute funds to the municipal branches. However, before municipal branches can receive funding, they must be officially recognized. Even then, funding is not necessarily secure. The Maracaibo branch of the Civil Protection and Disaster Administration was officially recognized in 2007, but it has yet to received funding from the regional department. The Guajira branch has not yet been officially recognized and they therefore do not receive support at all. Professionals working in Guajira’s Civil Protection do so on a voluntary basis.

MANAGEMENT AND DECISION MAKINGOLE has always been the main source of information used in the Meteorological News Bulletin, and Rodriguez has always been the sole project manager.

EVALUATIONCMC’s weather forecasting model is not yet evaluated qualitatively, though CMC does have statistical metrics (e.g. RMSE, bias, correlation) to assess the numerical model outputs. CMC also receives feedback from Rodriguez when forecasts are inaccurate and in those instances, CMC works promptly to correct the error.

Rodriguez distributes a monthly opinion poll to all users via email in which he asks for feedback regarding the quality and utility of the bulletin. He also has a monthly meeting with bulletin users in the Maracaibo area (e.g. the fire department), which encourages discussion regarding the clarity of his presentation and the weather projections themselves. The main concern among users pertains to the translation of information from technical, quantitative metrics to language that is more easily understood among those without a background in climate science.

Because of this service, a wide spectrum of decision-making institutions has learned the importance of disaster preparation. Users are finally reserving funds to address possible hazards, decrease vulnerabilities, and improve adaptation and response measures.

CAPACITIES

EXISTING CAPACITIESThe Meteorological News Bulletin is created using information provided by several partner institutions and the OLE collaborative network is therefore imperative for its continuation. CMC also provided Rodriguez with a laptop computer, which he uses to produce the bulletin.

In addition to providing the technical and informative infrastructure necessary for the existence of the bulletin initiative, CMC has also provided various training sessions for the Department of Civil Protection with the goal of teaching government personnel to interpret weather and seasonal projections. The CMC has put particular effort toward training Rodriguez in basic meteorological science because he is the editor of the bulletin.

Despite these efforts, data is still sometimes misinterpreted. When this happens, CMC and INAMEH usually contact Rodriquez to correct all erroneous statements. However, in instances when CMC and INAMEH do not review the bulletin, misinformation does sometimes reach the public.

Due to the lack of funds for technological support and a lack of personnel with climatic knowledge, decision makers in Guajira and Maracaibo all rely on the Rodriguez and the bulletin for meteorological information.

CAPACITY GAPSThe main challenge in building the bulletin has been the lack of personnel with scientific background. Though this capacity gap still exists today, thanks to CMC, Rodriquez has been able to gain the scientific knowledge needed to interpret the weather projection models he uses in the bulletin.

Furthermore, for a long period of time during the beginning stages of the project, Rodriguez used the computer lab at CMC to develop the bulletin, which required him to take frequent trips into the urban center. He also did not have the Internet connection necessary to download the weather models used in the bulletin. However, in 2011 CMC donated a personal computer to the bulletin effort and more recently the Civil Protection Administration provided him with an office and Internet connection. Rodriguez is therefore able to produce and distribute the bulletin with greater ease and efficiency.

Finally, language barriers also serve as a challenge to the development of this service. Some of the weather projections used in the bulletin come from United States and the maps/projections are therefore written in English and use English units. This prevents many Spanish-speaking bulletin users from understanding the content of the bulletin in its entirety. Language is a tremendous challenge and translation issues are included in the plans for improving the bulletin in the future.

LOOKING TOWARD THE FUTUREGOALSThere are two main goals for the future. First, Rodriguez aims to improve the weather projections by reducing error. Second, he plans make the information more accessible by further incorporating simplified language that allows users and decision makers to easily understand and utilize the provided information. To this end, it is also important to train related institutions and offer workshops that give users the tools needed to interpret and understand weather projections.

Rodriguez also aims to incorporate other hazards, both weather-related and seismic, into his bulletin.

Furthermore, Rodriguez hopes to expand the scope of the project’s dissemination. Presently, the bulletin is distributed via email, Twitter, and Facebook. However, Rodriguez and CMC’s team are working to provide the bulletin via text message and a bulletin web page.

Finally, Rodriguez hopes to expand the dissemination of information to other levels of government, particularly to the Ministry of Environment of Venezuela.

To achieve those goals, it is important to obtain additional funding that would ensure the long-term sustainability and desired improvements of the service. With such funding, Rodriguez would also be able dedicate more time to the bulletins and eventually focus more on preventative rather than reactive measures.

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PROJECT EXPANSIONCurrently, the knowledge developed for the Bulletin is being scaled up via the OLE partnership. Different institutions in countries throughout Latin America receive a similar service and provide very active feedback regarding the products used in Rodriguez’s bulletin and in other institution services.

The project is expanding within Venezuela as well. Due to the success of the Bulletin in Marcaibo, other municipalities throughout the country are trying to generate a similar bulletin with focus on their particular region.

LESSONS LEARNEDRodriguez realized early on that certain language was confusing and not understood by user audience. The most important goal in editing and improving the bulletin has therefore pertained to language. Jargon has to be kept to a minimum; language has to be simple and explicit so as to make it more accessible to the wider public. Similarly, the units used in explaining the weather projections need to be those used in Venezuela.

Rodriguez also realized that users wanted weather projections for days rather than hours. Another lesson was that users were able to understand the projections more easily when the legend was in specific units rather than percentages.

Slowly but surely, the bulletin has become a scientific tool to show decision makers the importance of taking preventive measures to minimize the impact of climatic events. Unfortunately, institutions only began to really pay attention to the service following the disaster-related deaths in Maracaibo in 2010, when the bulletin was received but not used. Meanwhile, in Guajira climate information was taken into consideration during the same event and all community members survived.

The lessons are being transferred via workshops with users from different sectors; these workshops also create an opportunity to provide important feedback and evaluation of the service. Lessons are also being spread throughout OLE . Through email, online forums, and videoconferences, various partners have been made aware of the initiative’s successes, challenges, and methodologies.

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PRINCIPLES OF THE GFCS

Principle 1:

Principle 2:

Principle 3:

Principle 4:

All countries will benefit, but priority shall go to building the capacity of climate-vulnerable developing countries.The Bulletin is based in a climate-vulnerable developing country.

The primary goal of the Framework will be to ensure greater availability of, access to, and use of climate services for all countries.The Bulletin is sent via email to more than 200 recipients around Venezuela. It is also posted on various social networks, which connects the information with an even wider audience.

Framework activities will address three geographic domains; global, regional and nationalThe service works only at a regional level.

Operational climate services will be the core element of the Framework.The core of the bulletin is operational climate services.

Climate information is primarily an international public good provided by governments, which will have a central role in its management through the Framework.The climate information provided it is primarily an international public good. The government of Venezuela provides information through INAMEH.

The Framework will promote the free and open exchange of climate-relevant observational data while respecting national and international data policies.The Bulletin promotes the free and open exchange of climate data, both nationally and internationally.

The role of the Framework will be to facilitate and strengthen, not to duplicate.The Bulletin does facilitate and strengthen the information.

The Framework will be built through user – provider partnerships that include all stakeholders.

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Principle 5:

Principle 6:

Principle 7:

Principle 8:

References

Corporación Andina de Fomento. No date. Las lecciones de El Niño. Memorias del Fenómeno El Niño 1997-1998. Retos y propuestas para la region andina. Vol VI: Venezuela. Corporación Andina de Fomento.

Fundación Venezolana de Investigaciones Sismológica website. Visited on July 22 2012 http://www.estudiosydesastres.info.ve/index.php

José Miguel Campos and Lelys Bravo de Guenni. 2011. Eventos catasrtróficos por inundaciones y deslaves en Venezuela. Universidad Simón Bolívar.

La Radio del Sur “Venezuela: 5 muertos por fuertes lluvias en Maracaibo” December 8th, 2011 website. Visited on July 10 2012, <http://laradiodelsur.com/?p=62094>

Organizacion Panamericana de la Salud. December 1999. Boletín Epidiemiológico. Vol. 20, No. 4.

Roberto J. Rodriguez, 2012. Personal Communication.