shipping sector overview - pacra · gawadar port. pakistan national shipping corporation (pnsc) is...
TRANSCRIPT
SHIPPING
SECTOR OVERVIEW
February 2017
Global Industry Snapshot
Demand
Supply
Growth Trend
Freight Rates
Outlook
Merchandise trade has high correlation with GDP
Seaborne trade | ~90% of world is carried by the international shipping industry
In recent years, new ships joining the world fleet are fuel efficient and larger in size
Lately, world GDP growth has tapper down owing to slow down in world largest
economies mainly China and Europe. Hence, global shipping companies’ freights have
come under pressure. However, the negative impact of lower freights has been absorbed
by notable decline in crude oil prices.
Re-balancing of China’s economy may significantly reshape the maritime transport
landscape and alter shipping and seaborne trade pattern, going forward.
China’s initiative of One Belt, One Road aims to establish new trade routes.
Pakistan’s merchandise trade has shown a rising trend; however, lately due to dip in
exports and value of oil imports, the overall trade has remained intact.
CPEC under China’s One Belt, One Road is expected to increase seaborne trade through
Gawadar port.
Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) is the only shipping company operating
with flag as a national flag carrier.
Maintaining a fleet of 9 vessels (4 oil tankers and 5 dry bulk carriers), PNSC operates on
a competitive basis. PNSC is in the process of acquiring two more vessels.
PNSC’s business margins have improved owing to better cost management and renewed
contracts.
INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT
GLO
BAL
PAKIS
TAN
Shipping Industry | DWT Capacity
World 2010 2015
# of Vessels 103,392 90,917
Avg. Vessel Life 22.5yrs. 20.3yrs.
PNSC
# of Vessels 9 9Avg. Vessel Life 15yrs. 12yrs.
14% 15% 16% 15% 16%
13% 13% 13% 13% 14%
33% 30% 28% 28% 28%
40% 42% 43% 44% 43%
1,532 1,625
1,694 1,749
1,806
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15M
illi
on
DW
T
Segm
en
t S
hare
World Fleet | Capacity | Segment Share
Other Cargo Container Oil Tanker
Dry Bulk Total (mln dwt) -RHS
0
5
10
15
20
25
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15
Avg. A
ge
| Yea
rs
Num
ber
World Fleet | Size and Avg. Life
Number of Vessels (LHS) All Ships Dry Bulk Oil Tankers
Shipping Industry | Growth Trends
Crude Oil, 18%
Petroleum
Products, 12%
Gas &
Chemicals, 6%
Containerized,
15%Iron Ore, 14%
Coal, 11%
Grain, 5%
Others, 20%
SEABORNE TRADE -2015 | TYPES OF GOODS
28% 30% 31% 32% 29%
32% 31% 30% 29% 29%
40% 39% 40% 40% 41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15
World | Seaborne Trade Volume | Segment Share
Dry Bulk Oil & Gas Others
Shipping Industry | Growth Trends
Crude Oil, 18%
Petroleum
Products, 12%
Gas &
Chemicals, 6%
Containerized,
15%Iron Ore, 14%
Coal, 11%
Grain, 5%
Others, 20%
SEABORNE TRADE -2015 | TYPES OF GOODS
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15
Global Seaborne Trade | Trend
Dry Bulk Oil Tankers
Others - Dry Cargo Growth in Seaborne Trade
Shipping Industry | Suppliers
16%
13%
9%
7%5%
50%
Top 5 Countries | Market Share | DWT -2015
Greece
Japan
China
Germany
Singapore
Others
Sr. # Shipping Companies Country Market Share* Vessels
1 Maersk Line A/S Denmark 15.1% 616
2 Mediterranean Shipping Company South Africa 13.4% 465
3 CMA CGM South Africa 9.2% 435
4 Coso Container Lines Limited USA 7.8% 268
5 Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft Germany 4.8% 174
6 Evergreen Marine Corporation Limited Taiwan 4.7% 189
7 Hamburg Sud Germany 3.3% 132
8 Hanjin Shipping Company Limited Korea 3.1% 101
9 Orient Overseas Container Line Japan 3.0% 111
10 Neptune Orient Lines - American President Lines USA 2.8% 89
Total 67.2% 2,580
*Market share based on TEU: Twenty Feet Equivalent Units | 1 TEU = 12-14 DWT
Shipping Industry | Freight Rates | Dry Bulk
Baltic Dry Index | 6years Movement
• Baltic Dry index remained at low level however showed
improvement in recent months
• Slowdown in Chinese economy remains major factor in lower
BDI index rates
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-16
May
-16
Jun-1
6
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Baltic Dry Index |Trend
FY16
FY17
Shipping Industry | Freight Rates | Dry Bulk
FY15
Shipping Industry | Freight Rates | Liquid
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-16
May
-16
Jun-1
6
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
AFRA Index | Movement
FY151QFY17
FY16
Shipping Industry | Outlook
Analysts Muhammad Hassan
Financial Analyst
Rai Umar Farooq
Senior Manager Ratings
Contact Number: +92 42 3586 9504
DISCLAIMERPACRA has used due care in preparation of this document. Our information has been obtained from
sources we consider to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. The information
in this document may be copied or otherwise reproduced, in whole or in part, provided the source is
duly acknowledged. The presentation should not be relied upon as professional advice.
Bibliography• Review of Maritime Transport 2015• Pakistan National Shipping Corporation• http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS/countries?display=graph• http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/WLD/Year/2007/TradeFlow/I
mport/Partner/WLD/Product/All-Groups• http://www.ics-shipping.org/shipping-facts/shipping-and-world-trade• https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND• https://www.quandl.com/data/LLOYDS/BDI-Baltic-Dry-Index
www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/exp_import_BOP.pdf