shipbuilding market overview - clarksons presentation... · shipbuilding market overview cargotec...

Shipbuilding Market OverviewCargotec Capital Markets Day, Helsinki, 17th November 2011.Steve Gordon,Clarkson Research Services Limited (CRSL)

The information supplied herewith is believed to be correct but the accuracy thereof is not guaranteed and the Company and its employees cannot accept liability for loss suffered in consequence of reliance on the information provided. Provision of

this data does not obviate the need to make further appropriate enquiries and inspections. The information is for the use of the recipient only and is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance without the written permission of

Clarkson Research Services.

Agenda

1. Market Position, Seaborne Trade, World Fleet

2. Regional Shipbuilding Capacity

3. Ship Type Investment & Outlook

4. Summary

Market Position: Clarksea Index

Three very different decades!Between the end of May 2008 and mid-April 2009, the Index fell from almost $50,000/day to a low of $7,350/day.2009 & 2010 proved better than expected and low interest rates helped.Sentiment now weaker -as of 11th November 2011, $11,142 / day

The The ClarkseaClarksea Index (tankers, Index (tankers, bulkersbulkers, containers, , containers, gas) Source: Clarkson Researchgas) Source: Clarkson Research

ClarkSea Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

Source: Clarkson Research, April 2011

'000 $/day

The Clarksea Index is an average w eighted index of earnings across

the major sectors of tankers, bulkers, containers and gas

Average 1980s - $9,461/dayAvergae 1990s - $11,924/dayAverage 2000s - $21,720/day

Cycle Position November 2011

This chart shows average earnings today for the ship type, as a % of

the average earnings during the last 10 years

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

VLCCSuezmax Aframax

Clean Products

CapesizePanamax

HandymaxHandy

Container 3,500 teuContainer 1,700 teu

OffshoreLPGLNG

% deviation from 10 year trend

Tankers depressed

Quarterly Upturn but lots

of supply to come

Gas & Offshore

better

Rates have continued to decline since the summer

The World Economy - Sea trade cycles generally follow cycles in world GNP – but not precisely.

World Seaborne Trade & GDP

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

-1.0

%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Source: Clarkson Research Services. IMF

Trade Grow th

World GDP Grow th %

2009

2008

2007

linear trendline

2010

Seaborne Trade 2011, m.tonnes

Other Dry27%

Minor Bulks13%

Major Bulks25%

Crude Oil21%

Oil Products9% Gas

3%

Source: Clarkson Research Services

1990-2008: trade almost doubled to 8.2bn tonnes

– that is over one tonne for

every person on the planet

Global Seaborne Trade

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

(e)


Major Bulk Minor BulkContainer Trade Crude OilOil Products GasOther

Billion Tonnes

2000-2010 Trade Growth

1.7%2.5%

2.9%

4.3%4.9%5.3%5.7%

6.5%

-1.9%

7.9%8.2%

-3.7%

3.9%

2.7%

-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

Phos.

RockOthe

r

Crude O

il

Minor B

ulkGrai

nLPG

Baux./

A lum.

Oil Prod

ucts

CarsCruise

CoalLN

G

Contai

ner

Iron O

re


% Grow th Per A

World Seaborne Trade

4% average

Seaborne Trade Scenarios

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020


Chinese ImportsWorld Less China7% scenario4% scenario3% scenario1% scenario

Period % p.a.1951-60 6.3%1961-70 9.1%1971-80 3.5%1981-90 2.3%1991-00 3.9%2001-10 3.7%

Billion Tonnes

We expect trade to grow by around 5% in 2011 but there are lots of risks given economic developments / uncertainty and there is a lag on trade data.For planning purposes, 4% growth in trade over the next decade does not seem unreasonable.

Seaborne Trade Outlook

Age Profile –11% of fleet above 25 years

0

20

40

60

80

100

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Mill

ion

GT

Del

iver

ies

Relatively few vessels built in the 1980s so limited

replacement requirement

World Fleet 1986 - 2012

Growth Rates:This year the fleet moved past the billion GT markFleet growth has moved up to 7-8% in recent years and this is also forecast for 2011 and 2012.This is roughly double long term trade growth and more than the 5% trade growth expected this year.Graph in GT-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

(f)


World Fleet Development

World Fleet Development% Growth

Million

Agenda




4. Summary

World Shipbuilding & Scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021

Milli

on G

T De

liver

ies

The last shipbuilding peak was in 1975 when output reached 36

million GT – 35 year cycle

Market Peak –2010 or 2011?

Surplus Capacity

Shipbuilding Output by Country & CGT

0

20

40

60

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Mill

ion

CG

T D

eliv

erie

s Europe JapanS. Korea ChinaOthers

0102030405060708090

100

1902

1907

1912

1917

1922

1927

1932

1937

1942

1947

1952

1957

1962

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

% to

tal s

hips

laun

ched

Korea

Japan

EuropeBritain

Other

Scandinavia

USA China

Shipbuilding – Waves of Competition

Source: Maritime Economics (2009)

China takes the lead…..Global Shipbuilding Share (2011 YTD Delivery

in Dwt)

Japan20%

S. Korea33%

China41%

Europe2%

Others4%

Global Shipbuilding Share - Delivery

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

YTD


% DWT Deliveries China EuropeJapan South KoreaOthers

South Korean success in high value ordersGlobal Shipbuilding Share (2011 YTD

contracting in CGT)

S. Korea50%

China32%

Japan5%

Others7%

Europe6%

Global Shipbuilding Share - Contracting

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

YTD


% CGT Deliveries China EuropeJapan South KoreaOthers

World Shipbuilding by Country 2010

19.016.0

9.70.80.70.60.50.50.40.3

3.6

0 5 10 15 20 25

China S. Korea

JapanGermany

ItalyPhilippines

NorwayTurkeySpain

NetherlandsOthers

Million CGT Output 2010

Source: Clarkson Research

223 yards

30 yards

78 yards

What is CGT?CGT is the Gross Tonnage (GT) of the ship weighted to reflect its

work content per GT. For example the weight for a

containership might be 1.0 and the weight for a big tanker 0.25)

World Shipbuilding by Country 2011 YTD

14.713.1

7.00.40.40.20.20.20.2

2.4

0 5 10 15 20 25

China S. Korea

JapanGermany

ItalyNorwayTurkeySpain

NetherlandsOthers

Million CGT Output in 2011

Source: Clarkson Research

232 yards

31 yards

68 yards

What is CGT?CGT is the Gross Tonnage (GT) of the ship weighted to reflect its

work content per GT. For example the weight for a

containership might be 1.0 and the weight for a big tanker 0.25)

World Shipbuilding Production by CountryCOUNTRY her Total Output

M CGT M CGT M CGT M CGT M CGT M CGTChina 3.9 10.3 1.7 0.1 3.0 19.0S. Korea 4.6 3.0 4.8 2.2 1.4 16.0Japan 2.3 4.7 0.8 0.6 1.3 9.7Germany 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.8Italy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7Philippines 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6Norway 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5Turkey 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5Spain 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4Netherlands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3All Others 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 2.2 3.6Total 11.6 18.8 8.1 3.0 10.5 52.0

Tankers Bulkers Containers Gas

World Shipbuilding Capacity 2010 - CGT

Indicates market leader for each ship type

World Shipbuilding Capacity 2011 YTD - CGT

Indicates market leader for each ship type

World Shipbuilding Production by CountryCOUNTRY Tanker Bulk Carrier Containership Gas Others TotalChina P.R. 2.6 9.3 0.7 0.1 2.1 14.7South Korea 3.3 3.6 4.2 0.7 1.4 13.1Japan 1.6 4.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 7.0Philippines 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6Italy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4Germany 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4Taiwan 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3Vietnam 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3Norway 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2Turkey 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2All Others 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.6Total 7.8 18.1 5.6 1.0 6.3 38.8

Top Builders 2010COUNTRY BUILDER Bulkers Container Gas Other Tankers Total Cont % tot

1 South Korea Daewoo 217 1,468 606 235 612 3,138 47%2 South Korea Hyundai H.I. 467 1,304 263 446 488 2,968 44%3 South Korea Samsung H.I. - 961 998 356 299 2,614 37%4 South Korea Hyundai Samho 249 408 88 - 539 1,284 32%5 China P.R. Jiangnan Changxing 50 377 - - - 427 88%6 Taiwan CSBC - 325 - - - 325 100%7 South Korea Hanjin H.I. - 312 81 13 52 459 68%8 China P.R. Jiangsu New YZJ 391 309 - - - 700 44%9 Japan Mitsubishi H.I. - 289 233 244 - 766 38%

10 Philippines HHIC-Phil. Inc. - 207 - - 52 260 80%11 China P.R. Guangzhou Wenchon - 207 - 58 - 264 78%12 Japan Koyo Dock K.K. 246 190 81 - - 517 37%13 China P.R. Dalian Shipbuilding 409 168 - - 554 1,131 15%14 South Korea Sungdong S.B. 709 154 - - 156 1,020 15%15 Japan Naikai S.B. - 118 - - 17 135 88%16 China P.R. Jiangsu Yangzijiang - 113 - 156 - 269 42%17 Japan Imabari S.B. 752 101 - 233 44 1,131 9%18 China P.R. Shanghai S.Y. 248 96 - - - 344 28%19 Japan I.H.I. 194 95 - - 178 466 20%20 China P.R. Zhejiang S.B. 33 78 - 15 - 126 62%

2010 Output - 000 CGT

Top Builders 2011 YTDCOUNTRY BUILDER Bulk Carrier Containership Gas Others Tanker Total Cont % tot

1 South Korea Hyundai H.I. 513 1,173 83 363 641 2774 42%2 South Korea Samsung H.I. - 1,104 162 294 840 2400 46%3 South Korea Daewoo 219 742 410 341 153 1866 40%4 South Korea Hyundai Samho 271 898 - 114 305 1587 57%5 South Korea Hyundai Mipo 438 21 17 223 493 1192 2%6 South Korea STX Shipbuild. 558 120 34 - 275 987 12%7 China P.R. Dalian Shipbuilding 346 49 - - 545 941 5%8 South Korea Sungdong S.B. 660 - - - 128 788 0%9 Japan Imabari S.B. 595 - - 99 - 694 0%

10 China P.R. Shanghai Waigaoqiao 403 - - - 181 583 0%11 South Korea SPP Shipbuilding 472 - - - 104 575 0%12 Japan Oshima S.B. Co. 566 - - - - 566 0%13 China P.R. Jiangsu New YZJ 492 26 - - - 517 5%14 Japan Mitsubishi H.I. - 248 - 174 89 511 49%15 China P.R. Dayang S.B. 440 - - 47 - 487 0%16 Japan Universal S.B. 352 - - - 133 485 0%17 China P.R. New Times S.B. 333 - - - 114 447 0%18 Japan Mitsui SB 390 - - - 44 435 0%19 Japan I.H.I. 209 47 - - 177 433 11%20 China P.R. Hudong Zhonghua 183 90 - 75 51 399 23%

2011 YTD Output - 000 CGT

“Non-Delivery” Trends

In recent years around a quarter to a third of expected deliveries at the start of the year have not delivered.

Slippage and Cancellation by Shiptype, 2011

GAS

TANKERS

BULKERS

TOTAL

CONTAINERS

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Cancellation Slippage

Unit : Dwt

% Difference of Forecast vs. Actual Deliveries into the Global Fleet

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: Clarkson Research, October 2011

Investor BehaviourMajor

Investors 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*Greece 655 257 67 292 118 37.7 21.2 3.0 13.3 11.5 STEADY…. 4%Norway 259 104 19 119 67 19.9 10.2 0.5 5.8 7.5 UP BY…. 55%Denmark 103 143 14 15 37 4.1 8.6 0.4 0.3 6.7 UP BY…. 2222%Germany 667 366 35 75 42 35.2 19.3 1.7 3.0 3.4 UP BY…. 35%France 103 38 11 68 27 4.4 1.8 0.1 3.1 0.9 DOWN BY….. -63%Italy 165 102 30 18 13 8.9 6.0 1.1 2.4 0.8 DOWN BY….. -59%Netherlands 165 99 55 43 28 4.6 2.1 1.0 2.4 0.7 DOWN BY….. -64%Turkey 242 108 12 43 22 9.0 5.0 0.1 1.5 0.7 DOWN BY….. -49%Russia 40 63 28 30 22 1.1 1.6 0.4 1.2 0.6 DOWN BY….. -37%Sweden 7 10 4 14 5 1.1 1.7 0.1 0.5 0.5 UP BY…. 20%United Kingdom 79 35 9 26 7 1.7 2.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 DOWN BY….. -75%Monaco 0 3 0 5 5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 UP BY…. 28%Other Europe 246 107 41 58 19 11.0 6.0 1.2 2.1 0.3 DOWN BY….. -81%TOTAL EUROPE 2,731 1,435 325 806 412 138.7 85.7 10.0 36.9 34.2 UP BY…. 11%China P.R. 391 273 230 444 136 18.5 13.8 6.9 14.5 4.4 DOWN BY….. -64%Singapore 234 149 91 111 76 6.0 6.2 1.5 4.3 3.2 DOWN BY….. -13%Hong Kong 157 63 32 81 36 6.9 3.0 1.6 2.6 2.5 UP BY…. 13%Japan 423 326 84 100 39 24.4 17.8 2.8 3.7 2.3 DOWN BY….. -25%South Korea 253 141 43 89 43 12.8 8.3 2.1 4.2 2.1 DOWN BY….. -41%Taiwan 103 44 12 63 24 8.6 3.1 0.4 3.4 1.4 DOWN BY….. -50%Malaysia 85 61 31 35 24 1.8 0.8 0.5 3.3 0.4 DOWN BY….. -86%India 94 31 18 47 11 3.9 1.6 0.4 1.9 0.3 DOWN BY….. -80%Other Asia 84 60 30 21 17 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 DOWN BY….. -13%TOTAL ASIA 1,824 1,148 571 991 406 84.9 56.1 16.5 38.4 16.7 DOWN BY….. -48%Israel 49 19 2 21 28 4.5 1.8 0.1 1.2 1.5 UP BY…. 49%Saudi Arabia 33 7 3 3 6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.4 UP BY…. 76%U.A.E. 81 77 51 22 4 2.5 3.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 DOWN BY….. -66%Other Mid. East 37 63 13 10 4 3.5 5.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 DOWN BY….. -24%TOTAL MID. EAST 200 166 69 56 42 11.7 10.7 1.4 2.6 2.3 UP BY…. 8%United States 178 61 43 67 53 19.4 6.1 1.8 5.7 14.3 UP BY…. 200%Brazil 28 32 30 21 28 1.1 7.4 5.2 1.4 5.3 UP BY…. 355%Canada 52 13 5 40 16 4.2 0.2 0.1 1.3 2.1 UP BY…. 98%Other 100 69 56 56 8 4.1 3.6 2.5 2.8 0.2 DOWN BY….. -91%TOTAL OTHER 358 175 134 184 105 28.8 17.4 9.7 11.1 21.8 UP BY…. 135%

GLOBAL TOTAL 5,113 2,924 1,099 2,037 965 264.1 169.9 37.5 88.9 75.0 STEADY…. 1%

No. of Vessels Investment TrendsThis Year …

Value $ billion

Chinese Owned Fleet & ContractsChinese Owned Fleet & Contracts

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

05Ap

r-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr-

06Ju

l-06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07Ap

r-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr-

08Ju

l-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09Ap

r-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr-

10Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1Source: Clarkson Research Services

m. GT

0

1

2

3

4

5

6m. GT

China P.R. Ow ned Fleet (LHS)China P.R. Ow ned Contracts (RHS)

• Strong Chinese owned contracts before the financial crisis leads to strong growth rate after financial crisis.

• About 9% (in GT) yoy growth rate pre-financial crisis.

• Over 20% (in GT) yoy growth rate post-financial crisis.

• Global fleet growth rate consist at about 7% yoy during the same period.

Agenda




4. Summary

Massive Investment In New Ships

1. Between 2003 and 2008 the industry ordered over $800 billion of new ships. 50% of the orders were placed in 2007/8 when prices were at a peak

2. Majority of investment related to standard designs and technology

3. In 2011, 40% of investment has been offshore related and 15% gas.

4. Today, the contract value of the marine orderbook is over $300 billion and offshore is nearly $150 billion.

020406080

100120140160180200220240

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Bill $ Orders

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

New Cape $MM

OthersContainerLPGLNGBulkTankersNew Cape $MM

Source: Clarkson Research Services Ltd

Shipbuilding Output by Type & CGT

0

20

40

60

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Mill

ion

CG

T D

eliv

erie

s OthersContainershipBulkercarrierTanker

2010 Activity & 2011 PotentialTankers, 301, 15%

Gas, 56, 3%

Container, 125, 6%

Others, 374, 19%

Bulk, 1117, 57%

2010

1,973 1,177 (f)

Tankers, 153, 13%

Gas, 82, 7%

Container, 289, 25%

Bulk, 325, 27%

Others, 328, 28%

2011

2011 ……. Winners & Losers

We expect the relative share of orders by sector to change in 2011.

We expected Offshore, Container and Gas to do better.

We expect bulkers and tankers to be down year on year.

Overall volumes expected to be slightly down on 2010.

2011 versus 2010

Bulk

Ferry

Tanker

Offshore

Gas

Container

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

Newbuilding Requirement Scenario

Relatively low ordering expected in the short term. Surplus capacity may put pressure on pricing.Gradual pick up later in the decade but with relatively more gas, container, ferry, Ro Ro, PCC and Offshore.Bulkers remains a volume market but not at the same levels as the boom.Counter cyclical ordering possible.New designs and technology provide marketing opportunities.

Offshore Oil Production & Forecast

• Following a decade of stagnation, offshore oil is expected to grow strongly.

• Step change in oil price expectation and offshore oil is getting deeper

• Projection based on over 178 oil fields currently under development

• 1,125 potential development oil fields and 1,038 gas fields

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Mill

ion

BPD

Caspian Black Sea West AfricaAsia Pacific Sth AmericaM East & ISC NW EuropeNth America

Offshore oil production and forecast

forecast

Growth

Stagnation

?

Growth

Offshore Discoveries Getting Deeper

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Water Depth (M)

Shengli, China 3.8 bn bblsSafaniya,

S.Arabia 3.5 bnbbls

Akal & Cantarell, Mexico 6.7 bn bbls

combined

Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Fields

Brazilian Pre-Salt Discoveries

Offshore & Marine Orderbook-Value by Type

Offshore

$137 bn $291 bn

Tankers12.8%

Gas5.0%

Container19.9%

Others20.1%

Bulk42.2%

Marine

AHTS7%

Supply6%

Survey3%

Mobile Offshore Drilling

46%

Mobile Production

20%Logistics

3%

Construct& Platform

13.9%

Offshore Contracting Forecast –Significant Requirement

• Long Term Project Intelligence Forecast is based on the projected construction and start-up of future offshore fields. The contracting forecast is based on the units required for each of the fields in the projection start-up.

0100

200

300400

500

600700

800

9001000

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

No o

f Con

tract

s Pl

aced

Support

Productionand Logistics

Survey andDevelopment

Project Intelligence Methodology Contracting Forecast

Forecast

Agenda




4. Summary

ConclusionsWe have entered a market trough following a decade of exceptional earnings. The big three volume sectors – tankers, bulkers, containers – all face difficult issues.

World trade averages under 4% growth but there is currently shipbuilding capacity to grow the fleet at 7%. Suggests prices may ease back and a return towards boom ordering levels is unlikely.

Shipbuilding output is at a record high and marks the peak of a 35 year cycle. China took the shipbuilding crown last year but is having a tough 2011 in contracting terms.

In 2011, Gas, Container and Offshore have been more active. Securing finance at the moment is difficult.

We expect dry bulk to remain a volume newbuild market but for Gas, Ro Ro, Ferry and Offshore to do relatively better over the coming decade

It is a buyers market and yards are being far more flexible with new designs. Solutions that reduce fuel consumption and have a green angle are very attractive. Lower newbuild prices may encourage counter cyclical ordering.

18/11/2011

Clarksons Research

DisclaimerThe information supplied herewith is believed to be correct but the accuracy thereof is not guaranteed and the Company and its employees cannot accept liability for loss suffered in consequence of reliance on the information provided. Provision of this data does not obviate the need to make further appropriate enquiries and inspections. The information is for the use of the recipient only and is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance without the written permission of Clarkson Research Services.

The statistical and graphical information contained under the heading is drawn from the Clarkson Research Services Limited ("CRSL") database and other sources. CRSL has advised that: (i) some information in CRSL's database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; and (ii) the information in the databases of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the information in CRSL'sdatabase; and (iii) whilst CRSL has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the statistical and graphical information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; and (iv) CRSL, its agents, officers and employees do not accept liability for any loss suffered in consequence of reliance on such information or in any other manner; and (v) the provision of such information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (vi) the provision of such information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by CRSL; and (vii) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it cannot be very accurate

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