shareholder value & economic moats - first avenue · shareholder value & economic moats ....
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Shareholder Value &
Economic Moats
Introductions
2
o Pat Dorsey, CFA o Founder, Dorsey Asset Management
o Former Director of Equity Research at Morningstar:
Created investment philosophy, built team from 20 to
100 analysts, developed institutional research platform.
o Author of The Five Rules for Successful Stock
Investing, and The Little Book that Builds Wealth.
o Dorsey Asset Management o Single strategy, separately managed accounts
o Global, all-cap, concentrated in 10-15 stocks
Global Moat Strategy
3
We focus on moats, management, and compounding potential because all
three are sources of perpetual inefficiency.
Agenda
4
o Moat foundations
o Sources of economic moats
o Mistaken moats
o Management and moats
o Why moats matter
o Valuing moats
Moat Foundations
5
o High profits attract competition, as capital
seeks the highest returns possible.
o Most businesses with high returns on
capital see returns decrease over time.
o But, a small minority of companies enjoy
high returns on capital for long periods.
Beating the Odds
6
o So…how do some firms beat the odds and
fend off competition for years at a stretch?
o By creating economic moats.
o Structural and sustainable characteristics
that insulate companies from competition.
o “Structural” = “inherent to the business.”
Moat #1: Intangible Assets
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o Brands
o Increase willingness to pay / lower search costs.
o Sony vs. Tiffany
o Amazon, LVMH, Groupe Richemont
o Patents
o Legal monopoly vs. expiry/challenge/piracy
o Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, Novartis
o Licenses/Approvals
o Legal oligopoly vs. regulatory fiat
o Casinos, some financial exchanges, aircraft parts
Moat #2: Switching Costs
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o Does the cost of switching to a competing
product or service outweigh the benefits?
o Integrate with customer’s business: Upfront
costs of implementation = payback from
renewals
o Microsoft, MTU Aero, Oracle
o Sell ongoing service relationships
o Rolls Royce, Kone, Schindler
o Provide a product with a high benefit/cost ratio
o Fastenal, Ecolab, Fenner
Moat #3: Network Effect
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o Provide a service that increases in value
as the number of users expands.
o Aggregate demand b/t fragmented parties.
o Edenred, Henry Schein, many distributors
o Benefit from non-linear relationship between
network nodes and network connections.
o Visa, Mastercard, Facebook
o Radial vs.
Interactive
Networks
Moat #4: Cost Advantages
10
o Process: Invent a better way of delivering a
good/service that rivals can’t replicate.
o Inditex, EasyJet, RyanAir Dell
o Scale: Spread fixed costs over a large
revenue base. Relative size generally
matters more than absolute size.
o UPS, Aggreko, Stericycle
What’s Not a Moat
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o Dominant Market Share
o High market share ≠ moat. (Ask GM – or Dell)
o Technology
o Commoditization and disruption
o Hot Products
o Can generate high returns for a short period of
time, but sustainable returns make a moat.
Management & Moats
12
o “Good jockeys will do well on good horses,
but not on broken-down nags.” (Buffett)
o Lo wins this race
Jockeys & Horses
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o Managers matter -- in context of the moat.
o The required minimum level of managerial skill is
inversely related to the quality of the business.
o Bad business? Better have a great manager.
o Great business? Genius not needed.
Moats & Management
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o Managers can affect competitive advantage
o Wells Fargo, ExxonMobil prove that managers
can beat poor economics.
o Brian Joffe at Bidvest
o But moats can buffer management mistakes
o Microsoft minted money despite Steve Ballmer
o New Coke didn’t kill Coca-Cola
o Moodys put profits before integrity…
Why Moats Matter
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o Moats add intrinsic value!
o A firm that can compound cash flow for many
years is worth more than a firm which can’t.
Wide Moat No Moat Narrow Moat
RO
IC
Time
RO
IC
RO
IC
Time Time
Why Moats Matter
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o Companies with moats have more
resilience
o A firm that relies on a competitive advantage is
more likely to recover from temporary troubles.
o A great psychological backstop for investors
who buy when the market is screaming “sell!”
o When negative news hits, ask: “Does the
information affect the company’s moat?”
Why Moats Matter
17
o Moats help frame the valuation decision:
“Should I pay up for this business?”
o Overestimating the moat means paying for
value creation that will never materialize.
o Underestimating the moat means paying a
large opportunity cost.
Motorola: Real Cost
18
“Let’s wait a bit –
the price moved
up an eighth.” “Thumb-sucking
on Wal-Mart
cost Berkshire
$8 billion.”
RAZR
released
MOT has 22% market
share, market prices in a
non-existent moat
MOT has 10%
market share
Wal-Mart: Opportunity Cost
19
o Most investors spend lots of time on margin
of safety, and too little on opportunity cost.
“Let’s wait a bit –
the price moved
up an eighth.” “Thumb-sucking
on Wal-Mart
cost Berkshire
$8 billion.”
Valuing Moats
20
o The value of an economic moat is largely dependent on reinvestment opportunities.
o The ability to reinvest tons of cash at a high incremental ROIC = a very valuable moat. o Fastenal, Amazon, XPO, Curro
o If a firm has limited ability to reinvest, the moat adds little to intrinsic value. o McCormick, Microsoft, Oracle
Isn’t the Moat Already Priced In?
21
o Short answer: Less often than you think.
o Long answer:
o Most investors own securities for short time
periods, and moats matter in the long run.
o Most investors assume the current state of the
world persists longer than it usually does.
o Most investors focus on short-term changes in
price, not long-term changes in moats.
Finding Moats = Finding Inefficiency
22
“All of the information is in the past,
but all of the value is in the future.”
Quantitative data
is efficiently priced
Qualitative insight is
less efficiently priced
