shared and divergent histories drive future dynamics of the mongolian plateau
TRANSCRIPT
Shared & Divergent Histories Drive Future Dynamics of the Mongolian Plateau
GINGER R.H. ALLINGTON, WEI LI, JIQUAN CHEN, RANJEET JOHN, DANIEL G. BROWN
Rangelands as socio-ecological systems
(Chen et al. 2015 BioScience)
(Wang et al. 2013 Glob Env Chng)
(Ulambayar et al. 2013 Rangelands )
(Bai et al. 2013 Science)
Modeling entire systems
System dynamics models• Provide insight into a
system's structure• Because of feedback
loops, it’s often difficult to infer the behavior of a system from its causal structure.
• Can be used to simulate alternative scenarios of system under different initial or boundary conditions.
NPP
Livestock
Biomass-
+
++
PROCESS NOT PRODUCT
Mongolian Plateau: divergent systems
(Chen et al. 2015 BioScience)
Human Sector
Land
Use Sector
Environmental Sector
Suhkbatar modelHuman Sector
Land
Use Sector
Environmental Sector
1: Increased Precipitat
ion
2/3: End Environm
ental Policies
4: No Env Policies / Decreased Urbanization
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT - Xilingol
1: Increased Urbanization & Industrialization
3: Increased Privatization
2: Rural Infrastructure Development
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT - Suhkbaatar
SCENARIOSXILINGOL SUHKBAATAR
Baserun: Continuation of current
conditions.
Scenario 1: Increased precipitation.
Scenario 2: No grassland protection
policies.
Scenario 3: No restrictions to crop
expansion.
Scenario 4: “Worst Case”
Baserun: Continuation of current conditions.
Scenario 1: Increased
urbanization/industrializationScenario 2: Enhanced mobility/ communal cooperation /rural infrastructure developmentScenario 3: Increased privatization of resources & services
Model outputs and predictions-Xilingol
Baserun: Continuation of
current conditions.
1: Increased precipitation.
2: No grassland protection
policies.
3: No restrictions to crop
expansion.
4: “Worst Case”
Model outputs and predictions-Xilingol
Baserun: Continuation of
current conditions.
1: Increased precipitation.
2: No grassland protection
policies.
3: No restrictions to crop
expansion.
4: “Worst Case”
Model outputs and predictions-Suhkbaatar
Baserun: Continuation of current
conditions.
1: Increased
urbanization/industrialization2: Enhanced mobility/ communal cooperation /rural infrastructure development3: Increased privatization of resources & services
Model outputs and predictions-Suhkbaatar
Baserun: Continuation of current
conditions.
1: Increased urbanization/industrialization2: Enhanced mobility/ communal cooperation /rural infrastructure development3: Increased privatization of resources & services
But REALLY??
Key factors influencing dynamics of the two systems
1. Urbanization2. Policies promoting protection and restoration of grasslands (IMAR)3. Policies limiting cropland expansion (IMAR)4. Policies promoting rural infrastructure that supports community cooperation and mobility (MG)
KEY AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY:-Urbanization trends into the future; rural/urban flows -Impacts of CBRMs-Market Access -Absentee herders-Herd structure/composition-Categorical grassland classifications