shaping the next catalyst of energy innovation · catalyst next (step #1) catalyst.energy.gov...
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!"#"$%&#'()(*+%'+,-. 01.30.17 | Ammar Qusaibaty, PhD !
Shaping the next catalyst of energy innovation !
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Moon shot (1961)
Lunar Landing: 1969
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SunShot: The Apollo mission of our time
75% reduction in costs across all sectors
between 2011 and 2020
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SunShot Initiative 2030 Goal
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Transaction costs make up
65% of total price of residential
system
* This is an approximation based on an internal analysis by National Renewable Energy Lab study of solar deployment costs (2014)
Secretary Chu - SunShot Grand Challenge Summit 2012
Structural barriers
Market barriers + fragmentation are many
49% of households cannot procure
rooftop solar due to rooftop limitations
15 states have interconnection policies
deemed overly restrictive
14 states installed fewer
than 25 MW of PV in 2015
7 states with no process for
compensating exported PV
20million low income homes have good
solar potential but may be excluded from deployment
32% of consumers have insufficient
credit to procure solar
73% of installations are
concentrated in 5 states
1/3 of installers have avoided doing
business in jurisdictions with cumbersome permitting
50day median
interconnection time for a PV system
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Many proxies to measure market maturity
Complexity Price Time Access
Balance of Systems (Soft Costs) Dr. Elaine Ulrich. Program Manager
Soft Costs Portfolio Funding: ~ $125m Awards: ~100 nation wide
Empowering Leaders & Decision Makers •! Rooftop Solar Challenge 1&2: 8 Regional Teams, 150M Residents •! Solar Outreach Partnership : Nationwide Technical Assistance •! National Lab Analysis and Assistance: Strategy and in-depth reports •! Solar Market Pathways: Community Solar, finance and deployment innovations •! Solar Powering America by Recognizing Communities (Sol Smart) •! SunShot Prize: Race to 7-Day Solar
Training Innovators •! Solar Instructor Training Network: 400 Community Colleges training installers and code officials •! Grid Engineers for Accelerated Renewable Energy Deployment: Utility Power System
Engineering network •! Solar Utility Networks Replicable Innovations in Solar Energy: Replicable solutions for
electric coops and rural communities
Harnessing Data & Analysis •! Solar Energy Evolution and Diffusion Studies: Big Data, analytics and real-world pilot
programs, University, Private and Lab developed tools: Making data accessible •! SunShot Incubator : Software start-ups in GIS, customer acquisition, finance and more •! Catalyst: Innovation ecosystem for rapid prototyping and launch of IT and automation solutions
Finance & Business Innovation •! Advanced Financing : Loans, MLPs, and new streams of capital for solar finance •! Solar Access to Public Capital: 350+ finance, ratings agency, developer and installer partners
developing standards contracts and templates •! Real Estate Valuation: Linking appraisal and finance best practices •! Community & Shared Solar: Expanding solar beyond residential rooftops to multi-family,
commercial and community based projects
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Solar deployment progress
0.1% 1.0% 2010 2016
Percentage of the U. S. electricity supply, from 1.2 GW to 30 GW in 2016
From To
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Mission: Accelerate the maturity of U.S.
solar markets while reducing
barriers to access
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Why Catalyst
The problem is not tech-to-market it is time-to-market
The solution is an open, goal-oriented, talent-driven ecosystem of
exponential innovation
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How to engineer accidents of innovation
innovation is a chain reaction accelerated by a series of
catalysts
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Testing exponential innovation
N Trails
Cost per trial
Speed
2 N/2
Trails
Cost per trial
Speed
Business as Usual (Linear) Open & Lean & Agile
12 teams/year $12 million
9 months to start
40 teams/year $3 million
90 days start to finish*
Disclaimer: Figures provides are only illustrative estimates and not based on actual incurred costs
* Every 90-day cycle had only 20 teams maximum capacity
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Key design decisions
1.! Combine coopetition with crowdsourcing to scale. Network effects matter
2.! Start with “problems” not “solutions”. Separate business innovators from technology engineering
3.! Create constrains, they lead to creative outcomes. MVP in 60-days is key.
4.! Reinforce the concepts of value proposition and product/market fit. They are simple concepts but difficult to implement.
5.! Invest in people and nudge them to use data to rapidly test business hypotheses and re-pivot.
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Catalyst transforms problems to real energy startups in 90 days
The SunShot Initiative
catalyst.energy.gov 4,376 views
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Catalyst process
catalyst.energy.gov
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Prototyping •! MVP* development •! Business/financial
model development •! Market entry strategy •! Network and industry
expertise expansion •! Demo Day
preparation
Prototyping contest process
*MVP = minimum viable product
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a super community of 997,507 software developers “prize competing” to build your software/data solution
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Goal: Inspire and nurture a network for mission innovation in energy (Results)
DOE Internal Use Only
Inspire 100,000 people
Engage 20,000 solvers
Connect 12,000
Enable 150
+5 million reached on Twitter
+25 thousand invited members
+ 5,350 active members +1200 software developers
75 videos by at least 150 people
285 problem statements
35 startups with at least 75 people + 5 ideation winners
()(*+%'+,-/&0)&1,#.
Solar problems solvable with software and data
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Examples of 60-day MVPs
PV Complete 60 days
$25k
Gridmates 60 days
$25k
DOE Internal Use Only
Demo Day keynote
DOE Internal Use Only 25
Catalyst Demo Day December 10, 2015. Michael Nutter, City of Philadelphia Mayor
Demo Day
DOE Internal Use Only 26
Demo Day pitch
Catalyst Demo Day December 10, 2015
Demo Day
DOE Internal Use Only 27
Demo Day Pitch Demo Day judges
Catalyst Demo Day December 10, 2015
Demo Day online
DOE Internal Use Only 28
Demo Day winners
The SunShot Initiative 29
Catalyst Demo Day December 10, 2015
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Catalyst teams value chain distribution
DOE Internal Use Only
Catalyst teams shaded in gray with business maturity indicator relative to other companies in the marketplace. Companies shown in “orange” were funded by SunShot Incubator Program.
Business Concept Pre-Angel Angel + Customers A Round B+ Round
Business Maturity Legend
Customer Identification
Customer Relations
Management
Sales + Systems Design/ Install
Land / Equipment + Supply Chain
Permitting + Interconnection
Financial + Risk Management
Services
Operations & Management
Hot 4 Solar* Solar Merchant* PVBid Solar Land Solutions* Accela EnterWise Solar DoctorSolar Action Network SimplifySolar Solar Site Design* EnergyBin Clean Power Research WindowStreet Solar RetinaSolar Power Report SolarAgs PVComplete* GeoCF GenBright Savenia* Tangerine+
Soluxify SunMetrix UtilityAPI* Kevala BeEdison TumalowSungiver SunSwarm Bright Harvest Solar Qado Energy Certain Solar Amicus Solar
YouSaveWithSolar Gridmates* Aurora Simply Civic Clean Power Finance Diaspark EnergyChooseEnergy MySunBuddy* Concept 3D Demeter Power EdgePowerClean Energy
ExpertsPickMySolar* enACT Evervest Geli
Energy Sage RE-volv Sighten kWh Analytics Power Factors Faraday Ethical Electric Folsom Labs Mercatus PowerHub
Geostellar Genbility Solar Mosaic StemPowerScout Interplay Learning Spruce Tigo Energy
Solar Census ModSolar Sungage Financial VoltaiqSunnumber SolarNexus Sunlight Financial Operant Solar
Sunvestment RA Power Village Power Finance
WiserCapital
* Incubation Contest cash prize winner
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Hot4Solar
10 SunShot winners
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75% of cash prize winners were amazing
DOE Internal Use Only
Team 1st Portion (Seed Round)
2nd Portion (Progress Round)
Success Ratio*
Utility API $30,000 $70,000 100%
PV Complete $30,000 $70,000 100%
Solar Site Design $30,000 $70,000 100%
Grid Mates $30,000 $50,000 80%
Savenia Labs $30,000 $0 30%
Hot 4 Solar $30,000 $50,000 80%
My Sun Buddy $30,000 $70,000 100%
Solar Book (Pick My Solar) $30,000 $70,000 100%
Solar Merchant $30,000 $50,000 80%
Solar Land Solutions $30,000 $20,000 50%
Livable Analytics $30,000 $20,000 50%
Kinetic Buildings $30,000 $70,000 100%
Success ratio = total prizes received by a team based on evaluated performance to maximum prizes allocated
Savenia Labs $30,000 $0 30%
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35 teams
10x cost reduction**
3x faster*
*From 9 months in a typical DOE FOA from application to benefit to 90 days *Average program cost per team is $100k compared to SBIR I, II phases at $1000k. **(Estimated) The base equals awarded cash and voucher prizes awarded to date and exclude total program cost as of May 2016
5x add-on funds***
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Small DOE team, big impact
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1.! DOE scheduled in January 2016 a number of group conference calls with participating teams after Demo Day to solicit feedback and comments. Roughly 12 teams participated in a group debrief and provided comments related to the Business Innovation Contest, Prototyping Contest, and Demo Day activities and format.
2.! DOE invited all 35 teams for a one-on-one 30-min session. 24 teams scheduled 30-min session over a period of 4 weeks that ended in mid May 2016. During these sessions DOE asked questions about:
•! Status of the startup (active, or not active) and expected status in 6 months
•! Value of capital raised, grants, in-kind support and active fundraising status
•! Number of full-time employees
•! Project annual revenues
•! Estimated valuation of their startup
•! Benefits in participating in Catalyst
•! How radically did they pivot away from the original product
•! How active they have been within the Catalyst community
Assessment methodology
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1.! 80% of all teams are still actively pursing their startups with 54% expected to be active in 2017 and 26% indicated likelihood to quit in 4-6 months. The remaining 20% secured other work opportunities
2.! Total reported full-time employees currently active is 95 with estimated $4-8 million in salaries*
3.! Total value of capital raised, public funding and in-kind value is $6.4m
4.! Total expected annual revenue reported is $5.6 million
5.! Total startup valuation reported estimate is $40-70 million**
Key findings
Actively fundraising?
40% (14)
40% (14)
20% (7)
Yes N/A Unknown
No
Expected to be active +12 months
Expected to be active only 4-6 months
Not Active
54% (19) 26%
(9)
20% (7)
Active startup?
* This estimated based on a range of salaries between $45k and $90k in solar startups ** This value is based on individual team’s estimates (21 teams only)
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Key findings (cont.)
24%
19% 57%
Pivot away from MVP?
No
Yes
Refine
Based on 21 Teams only
19%
52%
29% Active
Passive
Not involved
Based on 21 Teams only
Community involvement?
46%
25%
29% DOE
Validation
Rapid MVP Development
Connections Experience
Most valuable benefit?
Based on 24 Teams only
67%
24%
9%
Confidence in future direction?
High Medium
Low
Based on 21 Teams only
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Key surprises 1.! Crowdsourcing is not easy. It’s hard work. But it
works. 2.! “Prize” money is not enough to attract new
entrepreneurs. Need to inspire communities, nurture them and help them succeed.
3.! Innovation is geographically “sticky”, you need active local networks
4.! Competition on top talent is fierce, billion of dollars are chasing innovators in Fintech, Food-tech, Fashion-tech, AI, and digital health.
5.! Uberization of innovation "from the career, to the job, to the task*“ is trending. Get ready for “just in time“ talent!
*Source: Capital Markets and job creation in the 21st century, Jerry Davis. Bookings Institute (2015)
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Exponential innovation!"
1.! New sources of investments in clean energy innovation
2.! Multiple innovation pathways and new class of innovation managers
3.! The open multi-national conglomerate cooperation 4.! Hobbyist makers and maker spaces 5.! On-demand global talents and “community”
innovation
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EE RE
T
More integrated More access to talents More local high touch
Expanding Catalyst impact
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Catalyst integrated technology products
Solar Storage
Smart Appliances
Cooling & Heating
Storage
Plugin Electric
Plugin Electric
Digital Grid
Solar
Smart Appliances
Market Size Product Maturity Competition Level
Hugh Tiny 5th Gen 1st Gen High Low
Integrate with local ecosystems of innovation in a city near you
16 National Labs 75 Clean City Alliances 35 Energy Incubators
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Catalyst NeXT (Step #1)
catalyst.energy.gov
Ideation Contest
Catalyst NeXT (Step #2)
Catalyst Hub Catalyst Hub light
entrepreneurial training
product development
support
marketing help connections to
customers/investors
demo day
hosting
continued support +
empowerment
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Catalyst NeXT (Step #3)
catalyst.energy.gov
Business Innovation Contest
make your video pitch
choose local catalyst hub preferences
get matched if selected by
DOE
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Prototyping Contest •! Locally managed •! Nationally supported •! DOE quality oversight •! MVP* development •! Business/financial
model development •! Market entry strategy •! Network and industry
expertise expansion •! Demo Day preparation •! Local Demo Day
hosting *MVP = minimum viable product
min 15 max 25 teams / hub
Catalyst NeXT (Step #4) 60-100 high quality teams hosted in 3 to 5 local Catalyst hubs each selected Catalyst hub gets $55k to support teams in 75 days
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Catalyst NeXT (Step #5)
catalyst.energy.gov
Incubation Contest
local Demo Day per hub
5 winners/ hub DOE + Experts
$20k seed + $30k growth in 5
months
+ 3 months National Demo Day
$50k prizes to top 5 teams $100k prizes to top 2 hubs
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A crowd innovation prize that transforms problems to real energy startups in 90 days
catalyst.energy.gov
Ideation Contest
Business Innovation
Contest
Prototyping Contest
Incubation Contest
•! Crowdsource problems in adopting clean energy solutions from consumers, companies, utilities, and local authorities
•! 15 winners with $1k cash prize each
•! Inspire entrepreneurs to video pitch business solutions to top problems that can be rapidly validated with software, data, and light hardware prototyping
•! 60 winners with invitations to Prototyping Contest
•! Provide $50k vouchers to access national and local resources to build MVPs and business plans in 60 days provided by Catalyst qualified local innovation hubs
•! 60 winners with invitations to pitch in local Demo Days
•! Showcase startups in a local public Demo Day per hub •! 5 winners with $50k cash prize each per hub •! Showcase innovation hubs in a national Demo Day •! 2 catalyst hub winners with a $100k prize each
Investing in talent around energy innovation hubs in a city near you
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Questions
Tomorrow's!Clean Energy Startups Launched by People Like You around you | catalyst.energy.gov