Shaping a Shaping a Sustainable Sustainable

FutureFutureIan LoweIan Lowe

22 February, 200722 February, 2007

The fundamental premiseThe fundamental premise Future not somewhere we are going, Future not somewhere we are going,

but something we are creating but something we are creating

Many possible futuresMany possible futures

We should be trying to shape a We should be trying to shape a sustainable future sustainable future

How could we create How could we create unsustainable unsustainable futures ?futures ?Exponential population growthExponential population growthGrowing consumption per personGrowing consumption per personDeplete mineral resources, e.g. Deplete mineral resources, e.g.

OilOilOver-use fisheries, forests, water Over-use fisheries, forests, water Disrupt the global climateDisrupt the global climateBase economy on resource useBase economy on resource useWiden inequalityWiden inequalityEmbrace materialism Embrace materialism

““Our present Our present course is course is

unsustainable - unsustainable - postponing action postponing action is no longer an is no longer an

option”option”

- GEO 2000 [UNEP - GEO 2000 [UNEP 1999]1999]

Oil, gas Oil, gas resourcesresources

Oil peak 2009 _+ 6 Oil peak 2009 _+ 6 years ?years ?

Gas peak ~ 2040 ?Gas peak ~ 2040 ?

[ no [ no energyenergy shortage ] shortage ]

Other resource Other resource issuesissues

WaterWater

Productive landProductive land

ForestsForests

FisheriesFisheries

Economic Economic futuresfutures

Increasing resource useIncreasing resource useDegradation of natural systemsDegradation of natural systemsValue-adding, innovation crucialValue-adding, innovation crucialSo education, research So education, research

investmentsinvestmentsSustainable economic future ?Sustainable economic future ?Beyond growth to steady state ?Beyond growth to steady state ?Link to quality of life ?Link to quality of life ?

Social cohesionSocial cohesion World becoming less equal World becoming less equal Increasing tension within and Increasing tension within and

between societiesbetween societies All of us should be able to All of us should be able to

realise our potential – physically, realise our potential – physically, intellectually, emotionallyintellectually, emotionally

UNDP: all could have shelter, food, UNDP: all could have shelter, food, water, health care and education for water, health care and education for about 5 % of global military budget !about 5 % of global military budget !

Millennium Millennium Assessment ReportAssessment Report

Released March 2005Released March 2005

Experts and Review ProcessExperts and Review Process Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countriesPrepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries 80-person independent board of review editors80-person independent board of review editors Reviewed by 850 experts and governmentsReviewed by 850 experts and governments

GovernanceGovernance Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000 Authorised by governments through 4 conventions Authorised by governments through 4 conventions

Finding #1Finding #1 Over the past 50 years, humans Over the past 50 years, humans

have changed ecosystems more have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in comparable period of time in human historyhuman history

This has resulted in a substantial This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earthdiversity of life on EarthMillennium Assessment Report

2005

Significant and largely Significant and largely irreversible changes to species irreversible changes to species

diversitydiversity Humans have increased the Humans have increased the

species extinction rate by as species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the background rates typical over the planet’s history planet’s history

10–30% of mammal, bird, and 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently amphibian species are currently threatened with extinctionthreatened with extinctionMillennium Assessment Report

2005

Increased likelihood of Increased likelihood of

non-linear changesnon-linear changes There is There is established but established but

incompleteincomplete evidence that our evidence that our impacts on ecosystems are impacts on ecosystems are increasing the likelihood of non-increasing the likelihood of non-linear changes … with important linear changes … with important consequences for human well - consequences for human well - beingbeing

Millennium Assessment Report 2005

An example of non-linear An example of non-linear changechange

Millennium Assessment Report 2005

The Knowledge The Knowledge BaseBase

Much damage done by applying narrow Much damage done by applying narrow knowledge to part of the system knowledge to part of the system

Develop a much better understanding Develop a much better understanding of complex natural systems, including of complex natural systems, including links between local and global links between local and global processesprocesses

Use this improved understanding to Use this improved understanding to reduce the impacts of human activities reduce the impacts of human activities on the natural world on the natural world

Sustainability Sustainability sciencescience

““a growing body of evidence a growing body of evidence and experience suggests that and experience suggests that the needed understanding the needed understanding must encompass the must encompass the interaction of global interaction of global processes with the ecological processes with the ecological and social characteristics of and social characteristics of particular places and particular places and sectors…”sectors…”Kates et al, 2001Kates et al, 2001

Sustainability Sustainability ScienceScience

Explicitly recognises our ignorance Explicitly recognises our ignorance of complex self-organising of complex self-organising systemssystems

Works at multiple scales of Works at multiple scales of organisationorganisation

Knowledge provisional, subjectiveKnowledge provisional, subjective Includes social, ecological Includes social, ecological

characteristics of place or regioncharacteristics of place or region Requires new styles of Requires new styles of

organisationorganisation Promotes social learningPromotes social learning

Some possible futuresSome possible futures Market forcesMarket forces - growing inequality and - growing inequality and

worsening environmental problemsworsening environmental problems Fortress worldFortress world - keep order by force ? - keep order by force ? BreakdownBreakdown - collapse of support - collapse of support

systemssystems Political responsePolitical response - but where is the - but where is the

will to take the hard decisions ?will to take the hard decisions ? ““Great transition”Great transition” to sustainable world to sustainable world

driven by new valuesdriven by new values

Collapse: Collapse: DiamondDiamond

Societies choose to fail or Societies choose to fail or survivesurvive

Problems can be resolvedProblems can be resolved Cultural values, social institutions Cultural values, social institutions

determine if concerted response determine if concerted response ““declining standard of living in a declining standard of living in a

steadily deteriorating steadily deteriorating environment”environment”

Signs of hope: new thinkingSigns of hope: new thinking Survival: new values, practicesSurvival: new values, practices

The underlying The underlying driversdrivers

Population growthPopulation growth

Consumption per Consumption per personperson

Societal valuesSocietal values

New suite of New suite of valuesvalues Domination of nature Domination of nature

becomes becomes ecological sensitivityecological sensitivity

Consumerism replaced by Consumerism replaced by quality of lifequality of life

Individualism -> Individualism -> human human solidaritysolidarity

Sustainable Sustainable community will:community will:

Have stabilised its population & Have stabilised its population & footprintfootprint

Use resources sustainably to produce a Use resources sustainably to produce a dynamic, flexible economy dynamic, flexible economy

Be approaching a zero waste societyBe approaching a zero waste society Have drastically cut carbon emissionsHave drastically cut carbon emissions Require developments biodiversity +veRequire developments biodiversity +ve Be committed to improving equalityBe committed to improving equality Therefore serious TBL assessmentsTherefore serious TBL assessments Process for difficult decisionsProcess for difficult decisions

HEALTHIER futuresHEALTHIER futuresHHumaneumaneEEcocentric cocentric AApproachpproachLLong ong TTime ime HHorizonorizonIInformednformedEEfficientfficientRResourcedesourced

Utopian?Utopian? 1800: end slavery1800: end slavery 1900: universal franchise1900: universal franchise 1987:1987: Berlin WallBerlin Wall

South Africa without apartheidSouth Africa without apartheid lap-tops, mobile phoneslap-tops, mobile phones

good coffee, civilised licensing good coffee, civilised licensing lawslaws in Queenslandin Queensland

Practically all features of modern lifePractically all features of modern life

There are always excuses for There are always excuses for not taking action and without not taking action and without a genuine popular mandate for a genuine popular mandate for change, we cannot be surprised change, we cannot be surprised or outraged if courage fails or outraged if courage fails and progress is minimal.and progress is minimal.

Our responsibility is to help Our responsibility is to help change that popular motivation change that popular motivation and so give courage to our and so give courage to our leaders.leaders.

Rowan Williams, Archbishop of Canterbury, 2005Rowan Williams, Archbishop of Canterbury, 2005

Prendre des Prendre des chemins de chemins de

courage!courage!