SHANGHAIRETAIL MARKET REPORT Q4 2015上海商铺市场报告 2015 第四季度

RESEARCH 研究报告

2

Thanks to the traditional holidays and the “11.11” and “12.12” e-Commerce festivals, the enthusiasm for online shopping grew even stronger, boosting the overall consumer sentiment in Shanghai.

During the National Day holiday, Shanghai received 8.8 million tourists, comparable with the previous year. Adversely affected by factors such as the weather, the number of tourists visiting traditional tourist spots declined nearly 30% Y-o-Y and the total tourism revenue decreased 3.7% Y-o-Y to RMB7.95 billion.

However, according to commercial statistics, Shanghai’s 427 medium to large-sized retail malls achieved total retail sales of RMB13.4 billion during the National Day holiday, up 10.3% Y-o-Y.

In 2015, Tmall’s “11.11” online shopping festival achieved retail sales of RMB91.2 billion, up 60% compared with 2014’s figure of RMB57.1 billion. Shanghai

NEW RETAIL SUPPLY SURGED IN Q4 2015Shanghai’s retail property market remained stable with a number of new shopping malls opened in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2015. In Q4, the total space of newly opened malls in Shanghai reached 747,687 sqm, an increase of 60.6% Q-o-Q (see Table 1).

TABLE 1Shanghai prime retail market indictors

Indicator Q4 2015 figure Q-o-Q change Outlook (Q1 2016)

New supply 747,687 sqm ↑ 60.6% ↘Ground floor rental

RMB55.3 / sqm / day ↔ ↔

Vacancy rate 7.0% ↓ 0.6 percentage point ↗

Capital value RMB223,446 / sqm ↑ 0.2% ↔

Yield 6.2% ↓ 0.2 percentage point ↘

Source: Knight Frank Research

ranked fourth among all Chinese cities

in terms of consumption level during

“11.11”.

Looking forward in 2016, we expect

abundant supply of new retail space,

spending on luxury goods will further

contract and consumer demand in the

mid-to-upper sector will remain stable.

In 2016, a huge amount of new retail

space will come onto the market. Over

25 retail malls are scheduled to open,

providing a total Gross Floor Area (GFA)

of over two million sqm. Livingsteel

Stage Mall (100,000 sqm) in Baoshan

District and Vivo City (120,000 sqm)

in Minhang are anticipated to open in

2016. We expect prime street shop rents

in Shanghai to drop 10-15% this year,

while shopping mall rents are expected

to remain stable. The rental gap between

street shops and shopping malls will be

further widened.

3

RESEARCHSHANGHAI RETAIL MARKET REPORT Q4 2014

In Q4 2015, the average ground floor retail rent in Shanghai’s core commercial areas remained unchanged at RMB55.3 per sqm per day (see Table 1) compared with the previous quarter.

In Q4, some shopping malls witnessed robust leasing activities with rents of new leases higher than previous levels, pushing up the overall shopping mall ground floor rent to RMB60.2 per sqm per day, up 1.3% Q-o-Q.

Shopping malls recorded Q-o-Q rental growth of between 5-8% included Crystal Galleria in Jing’an, Raffles City in Huangpu, Kerry Parkside in Pudong and Yueda 889 in Putuo District.

Shopping mall ground floor rent in secondary locations reached RMB54.5 per sqm per day, up 1.2% Q-o-Q.

Due to the sluggish sales and the closure of luxury stores, the average rent of street shops in prime areas decline a further 1.6% Q-o-Q to RMB50.4 per sqm per day.

A domestic apparel retailer reportedly leased a 500-sqm store on the fifth floor of Cloud Nine Mall in Zhongshan Park Area for RMB15 per sqm per day (see Table 2).

In the strata-titled sales market, a 51-sqm retail unit in Shanghai New Qipu Clothing Market in the previous Zhabei District was sold for RMB186,060 per sqm, the highest unit price achieved in Q4 (see Table 3).

RENTS & PRICES

Source: Knight Frank Research

TABLE 2Selected retail property leasing transactions, Q4 2015

District Building Floor / unit Trade Area(sq m)

Rent(RMB / sqm /

day)

Changning The Place Level 5 unitFood &

Beverage (F&B)

65 16

Changning Cloud Nine Level 5 unit Apparel 500 15

Xuhui Grand Gateway 66 Level 2 unit Accessories 40 45

Huangpu Hongyi PlazaBasement

1 unitSupermarket 200 45

PudongDingxiang

International PlazaLevel 1 unit F&B 100 22

Source: Knight Frank ResearchNote: all transactions are subject to confirmation

TABLE 3Selected retail property sales transactions, Q4 2015

District Building Floor / unit Area(sqm)

Price(RMB

million)

Price(RMB / sqm)

Previous Zhabei

Shanghai New Qipu Clothing Market

Level 4 unit 51 9.5 186,060

MinhangQibao Powerlong

Plaza Level 1 unit 51 4.0 78,463

Minhang Qibao Vanke Avenue Level 1 unit 50 3.7 73,572

Pudong Ocean Fortune Centre Level 1 unit 51 3.1 61,680

Pudong Yifeng Times Plaza Level 1 unit 19 1.7 92,499

Putuo Union Tower Basement 1 unit 65 4.8 73,599

Source: Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank ResearchNote: all transactions are subject to confirmation.

FIGURE 1Shanghai ground floor retail rents in core areas

RMB/sqm (net)/day

4

In Q4, some retailers opened large single-branded flagships, improving retail sentiment in surrounding areas.

On 25 November 2015, Korean beauty brand Innisfree opened their largest flagship store in the world in Hongyi Plaza at the intersection of Nanjing East Road and Henan Middle Road. Spanning three floors, this flagship store has a total floor area of 822 sqm. It is also the largest single-branded beauty flagship store in China with its first Green Café.

On 12 December, the world’s largest Muji’s flagship opened in Oriental Department Store on Huaihai Middle Road. Covering 3,438 sqm of space on three floors, the new flagship includes Shanghai’s first Café & Meal MUJI and China’s first MUJI Books.

In Changning District, Parkson-Newcore Mall had its debut on 19 December. This is the first lifestyle mall in China co-invested by Parkson Group and E-Land Group. Previously, this site was occupied by Parkson Tianshan Store. Parkson-Newcore

Mall Store has a total lettable area of 45,687 sqm. Eland Group’s SPAO, Mixxo, Shoopen, NC Picks and several F&B brands have already entered this mall.

In Q4 2015, a number of boutique bookstores opened in Shanghai, indicating a transformation of the bookselling business from traditional models. In Q4, newly opened boutique bookstores included Yan Ji You in Xintiandi, Muji Books on Huaihai Middle Road, Sisyphe Bookstore in Joy City and The Mix Place on Hengshan Road (see Table 4).

A common characteristic of these bookstores is a “Cross-Trade” model, which integrates various trades and

MARKETACTIVITIES

functions including book and cultural

product selling, cafés and light meal

provisions as well as exhibition

organisation. Featuring multi-trades, these

boutique bookstores have higher rental

budgets than traditional bookstores and

prefer to opening stores in central locations.

In 2016, more bookstores featuring “Cross-

Trade” will open in Shanghai. Taiwan

bookstore chain Eslite will open in Shanghai

Tower in Q1 2016, while Zhong Shu Ge will

open a new store in Reel Department Store

in Jing’an Temple Area.

TABLE 4Newly opened bookstores in Shanghai, Q4 2015

Bookstore Area (sqm) Open date Location

Yan Ji You 1,800 29 Nov 2015 Hubindao Mall, Xintiandi

Muji Books 3,438 12 Dec 2015Muji Huaihai 755 Store, Huaihai Middle Road

Sisyphe Bookstore 601.9 19 Dec 2015 Joy City Phase 2

The Mix Place NA 12 Nov 2015Hengshan Place, Hengshan Road

Source: Knight Frank Research

FIGURE 2Shanghai core area shopping mall annual supply and stock

Source: Knight Frank Research

Annual supply (million sqm) Stock (million sqm)

Within the Inner Road, newly opened shopping malls included Hubindao developed by Shui On Land, Joy City Phase II in the previous Zhabei District and Zijing Plaza in Yangpu District.

New shopping malls out of the Inner Ring Road included Hopson One in Yangpu, Shanghai Longsheng International Business Square in Minhang, Sincere Plaza in the previous Zhabei District, Greenland Being Funny Mall and Powerlong Plaza in Baoshan, Yifeng Times Plaza in Pudong and Powerlong Plaza in Fengxian.

Furthermore, Parkson-Newcore Mall co-invested by Malaysia-based Parkson Group and South Korean retail giant E-Land Group re-opened after renovation.

SUPPLY & DEMAND

Consumer sentiment remained robust in Q4 with the Chinese National and the Christmas holidays as well as China’s largest online shopping festivals of “11.11” and “12.12” which offered deep discounts.

In Q4, retailers’ demand for prime space remained strong, underpinned by growing F&B retailing. The overall vacancy rate of shopping malls dropped 0.6 percentage point Q-o-Q to 7.0%.

5

研究报告上海商铺市场报告 2014 第四季

受传统节日和“双十一”、“双十二”等

网络购物节的影响，消费者网购物热情较

为高涨，带动了整体市场的零售氛围。

国庆期间，上海共接待游客881.75万人

次，同比持平。受天气等因素影响，传统

旅游景点游览人数同比下降近30%，旅游

收入为人民币79.52亿元，同比下降3.7%。

不过，从商业统计数据来看，427家大中型

商业企业共实现营业额人民币133.8亿元，

同比增长10.3%。

2015年天猫“双十一”交易额达人民币912

亿元，较2014年的交易总额人民币571亿元

上涨近60%。在“双十一”的城市消费能

力排行中，上海位列第四。

展望2016年，我们预计上海的零售商铺供

应市场将保持活跃，在奢侈品方面的消费

进一步收缩，对于中高档消费品的需求则

保持稳定。

未来一年的商场供应量仍处于高位，约有

超过25个商场计划开业，总新增供应量超

过200万平方米。宝山区的宝乐汇生活时尚

中心（100,000平方米）和闵行区的上海怡

丰城（120,000平方米）预计将在2016年开

业。未来一年，上海主要商圈的街铺租金

将下跌10-15%，而购物中心的租金将保持

稳定，街铺与购物中心之间的租金差距将

进一步拉大。

新开业的商场更加吸引人气，世博源购物

中心在五一长假三天内客流突破50万人，

实现销售额人民币1,247.7万元。

淮海路街铺租金下滑，致使核心商圈首层

平均租金环比微跌0.7%至每天每平方米人

民币57.7元。

由于电子商务抢夺传统零售市场份额，各

商场纷纷积极调整租户结构，增加餐饮比

例。

在下一季度，服饰租金增长幅度有限，而

餐饮租金有望小幅攀升。

第四季度上海零售市场迎来供应高峰2015年四季度，上海零售市场表现平稳，有多个 购 物 中 心 集 中 开 业 。 第 四 季 度 ， 上 海 新 开购 物 中 心 面 积 约 为 747,687平 方 米 ， 环 比 上 涨60.6%（见表一）。

表一

上海优质商铺市场参考指标

指标 2015年第四季度数字 按季变幅预测

(2016年第一季)

新增供应 747,687平方米 ↑60.6% ↘

首层租金 人民币55.3元 /平方米 /天 ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔

空置率 7.0% ↓ 0.6 个百分点 ↗

资本价值 人民币223,446元 /平方米 ↑ 0.2% ↔

回报率 6.2% ↓ 0.2 个百分点 ↘

资料来源：莱坊研究部

6

表二

上海商铺租赁成交范例，2015年第四季度

区域 项目 楼层/单元 业态面积

(平方米)租金

（人民币/平方米/天）

长宁 南丰城 五层单元 餐饮 65 16

长宁 龙之梦购物中心 五层单元 服饰 500 15

徐汇 港汇恒隆广场 二层单元 饰品 40 45

黄浦 宏伊广场 地下一层单元 超市 200 45

浦东 丁香国际广场 一层单元 餐饮 100 22

资料来源：莱坊研究部注：所有成交均有待落实。

表三

上海商铺买卖成交范例，2015年第四季度

区域 项目 楼层/单元面积

（平方米）

总价(人民币百万

元)

成交价格（人民币/平方米）

原闸北

上海新七浦服装市场

四层单元 51 9.5 186,060

闵行 七宝宝龙广场 一层单元 51 4.0 78,463

闵行 七宝万新国际中心 一层单元 50 3.7 73,572

浦东 远洋洲海大厦 一层单元 51 3.1 61,680

浦东 亿丰时代广场 一层单元 19 1.7 92,499

普陀 汇融大厦地下一层

单元65 4.8 73,599

资料来源：上海房地产交易中心/莱坊研究部注：所有成交均有待落实

图一

上海核心商圈首层租金

资料来源：莱坊研究部

人民币/平方米（净面积）/天

2015年第四季度，主要商圈首层平均租

金环比保持不变，维持在每天每平方米人

民币55.3元（见表一）。

第四季度，由于部分购物中心成交活跃，

新签租金水平高于之前水平，因此推高了

整体购物中心的平均租金环比上涨1.3%

至每天每平方米人民币60.2元。

录得首层租金环比上涨的购物中心有静

安区的晶品购物中心、黄浦区的来福士

广场、浦东的浦东嘉里城和普陀区的悦达

889广场，环比涨幅约在5-8%左右。

位于次级商圈的购物中心首层租金约为每天

每平方米人民币54.5元，环比上涨1.2%。

由于近年来奢侈品销售一直不景气，受奢

侈品关店潮的影响，第四季度主要商圈街

铺的平均租金继续下跌，环比下跌1.6%

至每天每平方米人民币50.4元。

一国内服饰零售商在中山公园商圈的龙之

梦购物中心五楼租赁了约500平方米的店

铺面积，租金约为每天每平方米人民币

15元。

在零售商铺散售市场上，第四季度原闸北

区上海新七浦服装市场录得四季度最高单

价商铺物业成交，一个面积只51平方米的

商铺单价达到每平方米人民币186,060元

（见表三）。

租金及价格

7

研究报告上海商铺市场报告 2014 第四季

第四季度，数家零售品牌在上海主要商

圈开设大面积的单品牌旗舰店，带旺周

边零售氛围。

2015年11月25日，韩国美妆品牌悦诗风

吟在南京东路和河南中路路口的宏伊国

际广场开设全球最大旗舰店，该旗舰店

共三层，总面积为822平方米。这家旗舰

店亦是目前为止中国最大的单一化妆品

牌旗舰店，拥有全国首家悦诗风吟咖啡店

Green Cafe。

12月12日，全球最大的无印良品旗舰店在

淮海中路的东方商厦内开业，整店共计三

层，营业面积约为3,438平方米。新的旗

舰店引入了无印良品第一次在上海开设

的餐厅Café & Meal MUJI以及，还有国

内首家无印良品书店（MUJI Books）。

在长宁区，百盛优客城市广场于12月19

内环内新开购物中心包括瑞安房地产旗下

的湖滨道购物中心、位于原闸北区的大悦

城二期项目以及杨浦区的紫荆广场。

位于内环外的新开业商场则包括杨浦区的

合生汇、闵行的上海龙盛国际商业广场、

原闸北区的协信中环星光时代广场、宝山

的绿地缤纷城和宝龙广场、浦东的亿丰时

代广场及奉贤的宝龙广场。

另外改造转型后重新开业的项目有百盛优

客城市广场（原百盛天山店），该项目由

马来西亚百盛商业集团和韩国衣恋集团联

合打造。

受传统节日和“双十一”、“双十二”等

网络购物节的影响，消费者网购物热情较

为高涨，带动了整体市场的零售氛围。

第四季度，在餐饮行业的带动下，零售商

对于主要商圈零售物业的租赁需求保持旺

盛，购物中心整体空置率环比下降0.6个百

分点至7.0%。

供应与需求

市场动态

图二

上海核心商圈商场新供应量及存量

资料来源：莱坊研究部

表四

第四季度上海新开书店一览

书店 面积（平方米） 开业日期 地址

言几又今日阅读 1,800 2015年11月29日 湖滨道购物中心，新天地

无印良品书店 3,438 2015年12月12日 无印良品淮海755店，淮海中路

西西弗 601.9 2015年12月19日 大悦城二期

衡山•和集 不详 2015年11月12日 衡山坊

资料来源：莱坊研究部

年新增供应(百万平方米) 存量(百万平方米)

日正式开业，这是百盛商业集团和衣

恋集团联手打造的中国市场首家城市

生活广场。该店店址原为长宁区天山

百盛百货。百盛优客城市广场的营业面

积为45,687平方米，衣恋集团旗下的

SPAO、Mixxo、Shoopen、NC Picks

以及部分餐饮品牌均已入驻。

2015年第四季度，一批有特色的实体书店

纷纷开业，代表了书店运营正在向新模式转

型。第四季度开业的特色书店包括位于新天

地的言几又今日阅读、位于淮海中路的无印

良品书店、位于大悦城的西西弗书店以及位

于衡山路的衡山•和集（见表四）。

这四家书店的共同特点是“跨界”经营，

即融合了书店、文化用品、咖啡、简餐和

展览等各种业态。这些以多元化经营为特

色的书店通常租金承付能力比传统书店

高，偏好在较为中心的区域开店。

2016年将有更多跨界经营的书店开业，

例如台湾诚品书店将于2016年第一季度

于上海中心开业，钟书阁也计划在静安寺

芮欧百货开出新店。

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