SHANGHAIINDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT Q4 2017上海工业市场报告 2017 年第四季度

RESEARCH 研究报告

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In 2017, the gross industrial output value of large-sized industrial enterprises in Shanghai reached RMB3,398.9 billion, up 6.8% year on year (Y-o-Y).

Among the six key industries, “auto manufacturing” recorded the highest growth rate of 19.1%. Although the sector has deteriorated significantly nationwide, that in Shanghai led the market through transitions and upgrades.

The output value of strategic emerging industries in Shanghai reached RMB1,046.6 billion in 2017, increasing 5.7% Y-o-Y, 4.2 percentage points higher than the previous year. “New-energy vehicles” led other industries with a 42.6% gain in output value, followed by “energy efficient and environmental technologies” with a growth of 7.4% and “next generation information technology” with 7.3%. “Biotechnology” registered a 6.9% growth, while “high-end equipment manufacturing”, “new materials” and “new energy” recorded gains of around 3%.

In the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2017, Shanghai signed 805 foreign direct investment (FDI) contracts, a decrease of 40.7% Y-o-Y. However, the total contractual FDI value increased 51.2% Y-o-Y to US$12.3 billion. The received FDI reached US$4.33 billion, down 7.2% Y-o-Y.

Quarter four is the traditional peak season for the logistics market. Boosted by the “Double 11”, “Double 12” shopping carnivals and the “Black Friday” sales, common warehouse and high-quality cold chain warehouse saw greater demand.

An increasing number of e-commerce and courier companies are looking at the cold chain logistics field. Currently, besides e-commerce giants such as Ali, Jingdong and Yihaodian,

traditional logistics company SF-Express has also set up SF Cold Chain LTL. HNA and China Eastern have developed air cargo cool chains in different ways, while Prologis and Yupei Group have started to build their cold chain logistics network.

On 11 November, the warehouse delivery of Jingdong Logistics increased by 134% Y-o-Y. The warehouse delivery for fresh food registered the most eye-catching growth at 236%. This was the first “Double 11” shopping carnival after the independence of Jingdong Logistics Group.

To cope with the rapid growth of e-commerce sales, SF Express has adopted a strategic cooperation model to accelerate logistic distribution. On 13 November, SF Express signed a long-term strategic co-operation agreement with Goodman Group to provide warehouse facilities both in China and abroad. SF Express also signed strategic cooperation agreements with Vanke Logistics and Prologis respectively in September 2017.

On 13 November, Suning.com announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Jiangsu Suning Logistics will jointly establish its vehicles with Shenzhen Capital Group Real Estate Funds Management with a target size of RMB30 billion and an initial fundraising target of RMB5 billion. Its warehouse portfolio is anticipated to reach 12-15 million sqm.

In the coming year, we anticipate the leasing demand for logistics and warehouse space to remain high levels, pushing up rents by 5-8% over the year. In the logistics property market, online retailers, developers and financial institutions have been actively entering the market. Fierce competition is expected due to a shortage of high-quality warehouse and cold chain logistic facilities.

DOUBLE 11 SHOPPING FESTIVAL BOOSTS DEMAND FOR HIGH-END WAREHOUSEIn December 2017, China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.6%, down 0.2 percentage point over the previous month, but still higher than the annual average level. Steady growth in the manufacturing sector continued to generate sustained demand for warehouse facilities.

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RESEARCHSHANGHAI INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT Q4 2017

In December 2017, affected by seasonal factors, the China logistics industry sentiment index was 56.6%, down two percentage points from the previous month, but up 0.8 percentage point compared with June 2017. In general, the index remained at a high level.

With the approach of the Spring Festival holidays, logistics activity for food and daily commodities tends to be more active, which means logistics demand will be stable for the next one to two months.

The rapid development of retail and e-commerce has driven up demand for industrial storage space. In Q4, Shanghai’s logistics warehouse rents increased steadily to RMB1.51 per sqm per day (see Figure 1), an increase of 4.1% quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q). The growth rate was 0.6 percentage point higher than that of the previous quarter.

Currently, the asking rent for the e-Shang Redwood warehouse in Pudong is RMB1.75 per sqm per day, while the asking rent for their warehouse in Qingpu is RMB1.5 per sqm per day.

LOGSITICS PROPERTY

Source: Knight Frank Research

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FIGURE 1Average rent and Q-o-Q growth rate of logistics warehouse properties

In Q4, boosted by the “Double 11” and “Double 12” Shopping Carnival sales promotions and strong demand for third-party logistics, high-standard warehouses have been sought after. Thus, the overall vacancy rate in high-end Shanghai logistics parks decreased one percentage point Q-o-Q to 10%.

In Q4, there was no new warehouse supply among major logistics property developers. A 63,000-sqm warehouse space owned by CITIC Capital, situated in Hai Gang Town of Fengxian District, was added to the Grade-A warehouse market.

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In Q4 2017, factory supply was sufficient. Newly completed factories were concentrated in Jinshan and Fengxian Districts. In the Jinshan Industrial Zone, located in Jinshan District, a total of 60,000 sqm of new factory space was completed, while a total of 80,000 sqm of new factory space was completed along Liang Gang Avenue in the Fengxian Lingang area.

In Q4, factory rents in Shanghai continued its upward trend. The average rent for single-floor factory space reached RMB1.16 per sqm per day (see Figure 2), a Q-o-Q increase of 3.6%, 0.5 percentage point higher than that of the previous quarter. Demand for factories in Songjiang and Jinshan was very strong, with the average rent for their single-floor factories reaching RMB1.22 and RMB0.85 per sqm per day, respectively.

Italian air conditioning equipment company MTA rented approximately 10,000 sqm of

FACTORIES

Source: Knight Frank Research

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FIGURE 2Average rent and Q-o-Q growth rate of single-floor factories

factory space in Warburg Pincus (Jinshan) Business Park. The current rent in the zone is approximately RMB0.9 per sqm per day. Warburg Pincus (Jinshan) Business Park is a standard business park, which was co-

developed by US-based Warburg Pincus Group and D&J China. Its major industries are new energy, auto parts and precision machinery companies.

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RESEARCHSHANGHAI INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT Q4 2017

In the second half of 2017, GLP, the largest warehouse operator in Asia, announced that it had been acquired by a Chinese private equity consortium, comprising Vanke, Hopu, Hillhouse Capital Group, Bank of China Group and GLP’s chief executive officer, for about S$16 billion (US$11.6 billion). After GLP was delisted on 22 January 2018, the Vanke-Led Consortium became the single largest shareholder in GLP. This move will help Vanke perfect its deployment and speed up its development in the logistics and real estate sectors.

As pure delivery services can no longer meet the development needs, courier companies are seeking new “cross-border” opportunities as they are moving very quickly to expand their business size. In Q4, STO Express acquired an 86,000 sqm warehouse in Zhonggu

In Q4, the primary industrial land market in Shanghai was active, with 16 industrial plots covering over 640,000 sqm of land area traded. Songjiang, Qingpu and Fengxian saw the most activity. Songjiang led the market in terms of traded land area, reaching 259,000 sqm. The traded land areas of Qingpu and Fengxian were about the same, reaching 105,000 sqm and 104,000 sqm, respectively (see Figure 3).

In terms of sales price, the highest average industrial land price was still recorded in Minhang District in Q4 2017, reaching RMB1.44 million per mu. Pudong New Area ranked the second, with land prices reaching RMB1.165 million per mu. Jinshan, Fengxian and Jiading saw lower

land prices, ranging from RMB0.5 to 0.55 million per mu (see Figure 4).

In terms of transacted land size, most single land parcels sold were under five hectares, accounting for 75% of total transactions in Q4 2017. Single land parcels sized from 1 to 5 hectares contributed most, amounting to 56% of the total. Two land plots over 8 hectares were traded, located in Songjiang and Fengxian.

SALES AND INVESTMENT

LAND MARKET

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FIGURE 4Primary industrial land price by district, Q4 2017

Source: Shanghai Planning and Land Resource Bureau, Knight Frank Research

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FIGURE 3Transacted area of primary industrial land by district, Q4 2017

Source: Shanghai Planning and Land Resource Bureau, Knight Frank Research

Town in Qingpu District. The warehouse is situated with Ai Qi Harbor to the East, Zhong Da Road to the South and Zhao Zhong Road to the West.

In October, Shanghai Medicilon Inc. acquired Building 4 in Kailong Nanhui Business Park in Huinan Town, Shanghai, from Rykadan Capital for a total consideration of RMB42.5 million. The four-storey building has a gross floor area (GFA) of 7,088.24 sqm.

CITIC Capital acquired a factory in Haigang Town, Fengxian District, with a GFA of 63,000 sqm, from Shanghai Yasheng Logistics Co., Ltd through an offshore indirect transfer. Yasheng Logistics is a logistics company in which Agility Logistics invested. This acquisition indicates that CITIC Capital is taking further steps to enter the logistics property market.

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Guangdong Zhongshan Tanzhou Town - Sole agency prime industrial property for sale

PROJECT PARTICULARS

TABLE 1Project summary

Location No 8 Huo Ju Road, Tanzhou Town, Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, China

Land size 6.67 hectares

Land use Industrial

Industrial zone No 3 Industrial Park of Tanzhou Town, Zhongshan City

Land usage term To expire on 9 March 2053

Gross Floor Area (GFA) 30,939.16 sqm

GFA breakdown Factory: 23,983.22 sqm (one building)Office: 2,377.88 sqm (one building)Others (including dormitory): 4,578.06 sqm (one building)

Vacant land 1.5 hectares

Floor height Factory: 11.55 mFactory mezzanine: level one-5m, level two-3.2mOffice: level one-3.8m, level two to four-3.5m

Load-bearing Factory: level one-0.5 KN/sqm, 30T crane; level three-0.255 ton/sqmOffice: 0.2KN/sqm

Plot ratio 0.46

No of storey Office: 4 Workshop building with mezzanine: 1Dormitory: 4

No of lift Two cargo lifts (2,000 kg)

Other facilities Fire System: HydrantElectric Power Supply: 2 (1,600KVA and 640KVA)

Tenure Office and workshop: 10,375.4 sqm, 42-room dormitoryLease term will expire on 30 Nov 2018

This industrial property is located in Tanzhou Township, Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province. It is close to Pearl River Delta areas such as Zhuhai, Shenzhen, Macau and Hong Kong. Tanzhou features outstanding transportation links and a solid industrial base, making it an industrial and economic powerhouse for Zhongshan City.

The property is situated 19 km from downtown Zhuhai, 26.3 km from Macau, 155 km from Shenzhen and 2 km from the nearest highway interchange.

Tanzhou Township is planning to build a freight transport system, including a freight transport logistics park with entrances and exits close to highways and national roadways. Freight transport routes will also be built, including “3 transverse and 3 longitudinal” highways and expressways, as well as a logistical “ring road” in town. These will greatly strengthen the industrial freight transport linkage of the property.

The local government focuses on attracting international enterprises, including healthcare, textiles, garments, leather products, electronics and precision machinery. To attract more investment, it is establishing high-standard industrial parks.

Tanzhou Township has three industrial parks. The first completed covers 333.33 hectares, the second has 100.33 hectares,

and the third has a footprint of 1,066.67 hectares. Over 400 foreign companies have expressed interest, including Japanese

firm Sumitomo, United Laboratories, HAUR JAAN Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. and Best Machine Co., Ltd.

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研究报告上海工业市场报告 2017年第四季度

2017年，本市规模以上工业企业完成

工业总产值人民币33,989.36亿元，比

上年增长6.8%。

工业领域的六个重点行业中，汽车制

造业增长19.1%，在六大行业中增长最

快。在全国汽车产业大幅降速的情况

下，上海汽车制造业依靠转型升级，仍

在引领增长中发挥重要作用。

2017年上海战略性新兴产业制造业总

产值人民币10,465.92亿元，比上年

增长5.7%，增速同比提高4.2个百分

点。其中，新能源汽车增速最高，达

到42.6%，接下里是节能环保和新一代

信息技术，增速分别为7.4%和7.3%，

生物医药的增速为6.9%，而高端装备

增长、新材料和新能源的增速均在3%

左右。

第四季度，本市签订外商直接投资合同

项目805个，比去年同期减少40.7%，

但签订外商直接投资合同金额同比增长

51.2%至122.77亿美元；实际到位金额

43.3亿美元，同比下降7.2%。

第四季度进入传统的物流市场旺季，受

到“双十一”、“双十二”购物节及“

黑色星期五”海淘热影响，市场对于普

通标准仓库以及高标准冷链仓库的需求

有较大增长。

越来越多的电商和快递企业把目光投

向冷链物流领域。目前，除了阿里、京

东、一号店等电商巨头外，传统物流

领域像顺丰已经布局“顺丰冷运”，海

航、东航通过不同方式打造航空冷链物

流体系，普洛斯、宇培等物流地产巨头

也各自开始建设冷链物流网络。

在11月11日当天，京东物流的仓库发

货量同比增长134%，其中，生鲜仓库

数据最为抢眼，同比增速高达236%，

这也是京东物流集团独立后的第一个

“双十一”。

为了改善物流服务以应对电商销量的显

著增长，顺丰通过战略合作模式，加速

布局物流地产。11月13日，顺丰速运

与嘉民在香港签署了战略合作协议，拟

建立长期合作伙伴关系，共同在国内外

合作开发建设仓储设施。此外，顺丰还

在9月分别和万科物流及普洛斯签订了

战略合作协议。

11月13日，苏宁易购发布公告，称苏

宁物流与深创投不动产拟联合发起物流

地产基金，基金目标规模人民币300亿

元，首期募资50亿元，管理仓储规模

预计将达到1,200-1,500万平方米。

未来一年，我们预计仓储物流的租赁需

求将继续保持高位，仓储物流地产的租

金年增幅将在5-8%之间。物流仓储地

产市场上，电商、房企、金融机构都在

积极入市，市场竞争激烈，高端仓储与

冷链物流市场呈现供不应求的局面。

双十一购物节催生对于高端仓储的大量需求2 0 1 7年 1 2月 份 ， 中 国 制 造 业 采 购 经 理 指 数（PMI）为51.6%，虽比上月回落0.2个百分点，但仍高于年均值水平。制造业保持稳步增长的发展态势，催生对仓储的大量需求。

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2017年12月，受季节性因素影响，中

国物流与采购联合会发布的中国物流业

景气指数为56.6%，较11月回落2个百

分点，但比6月上升了0.8个百分点，总

体看仍然维持较高的水平。

随着春节的临近，食品、日用品等物流

业务活动趋于活跃。预示着未来一到两

个月，物流活动仍将保持平稳。

零售业和电子商务的快速发展推动了对

工业仓储空间的需求。上海物流仓储地

产的租金在第四季度继续保持升势，

环比上涨4.1%至每天每平方米人民币

1.51元（见图一），增幅环比增加0.6个百分点。

目前，易商红木集团在浦东的仓库租金

报价为每天每平方米人民币1.75元，他

们青浦仓库的租金报价达到每天每平方

米1.5元。

四季度，受惠于零售业“双十一”、

资料来源：莱坊研究部

物流地产图一

物流仓储物业平均租金及环比涨幅

人民币/平方米/天 物流仓储租金（左轴） 环比涨幅（右轴）

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“双十二”促销及相关联第三方物流的

强劲需求，高标准物流仓储面积供不应

求，上海优质物流园区的空置率环比下

降1个百分点至10%。

四季度，主要物流地产商中未见有任

何新供入市。上海甲级仓库市场新增

63,000平方米，新增仓库面积位于奉贤

区海港镇，由中信资本持有。

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研究报告上海工业市场报告 2017年第四季度

2017年第四季度，上海的厂房物业供

应较为充裕。新增厂房物业主要位于金

山和奉贤。位于金山的金山工业园区内

有约60,000平方米的新建厂房竣工交

付，而在奉贤临港的两港大道附近约有

80,000平方米的新建厂房交付。

第四季度，上海工业区租金保持升势。

上海工业区单层厂房平均租金升至每天

每平方米人民币1.16元（见图二），环

比增长约3.6%，增幅环比增加了0.5个

百分点。对于松江和金山的厂房需求强

劲，目前，松江和金山的单层厂房的平

均租金分别为每天每平方米人民币1.22

元及每天每平方米人民币0.85元。

意大利空调设备制造有限公司MTA在华

平（金山）智造园租赁了大约10,000平

资料来源：莱坊研究部

厂房图二

单层厂房平均租金及环比涨幅

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人民币/平方米/天 厂房租金（左轴） 环比涨幅（右轴）

方米的厂房面积。该园区目前租金报价

大约为每天每平方米人民币0.9元。华

平（金山）智造园是由美国华平投资集

团与东久投资管理有限公司合作开发的

标准产业园，主要产业导向以新能源、

汽车零部件及精密机械为主。

10

2017年下半年，亚洲最大物流地产巨头

普洛斯宣布，由万科集团、厚朴、高瓴资

本、中银集团、和普洛斯管理层组成的中

国财团以总价新元160亿（约美元116亿

元）的价格对其完成收购。2018年1月22

日，普洛斯完成退市，万科与其他财团为

收购普洛斯而设立的基金成为普洛斯权益

的单一最大持有人。此次交易的完成有助

于万科在物流地产领域完善布局，意味着

万科发展物流地产板块很可能进入提速阶

段。

单纯的快递业务已经不能满足快递企业发

展需要，他们开始“跨界”寻求业务新突

破。快递公司加快市场布局，第四季度，

申通快递有限公司在青浦区重固镇购买了

86,000平米仓库，该仓库东至艾祁港，南

至重达路，西至赵重公路。

10月，上海美迪西生物医药股份有限公司

以人民币4,252.94万元的价格从宏基资本

手中购入位于上海惠南镇的凯龙南汇商务

园第4座物业。该物业共4层，建筑面积为

7,088.24平方米。

中信资本也在第四季度以海外股权转让

的方式收购上海雅胜物流有限公司位于

奉贤区海港镇的厂房，该厂房总面积大约

63,000平方米。上海雅胜物流有限公司

是由中东亚致力公司投资而成立的物流企

业。此次收购标志着中信资本将进一步进

军物流仓储地产市场。

销售和投资

土地市场第四季度，上海的工业土地一级市场

较为活跃，共有16幅工业地块成交，

总成交土地面积超过64万平方米。成

交量居前的区县是松江、青浦和奉贤三

区。其中，松江的土地成交面积遥遥领

先，达25.9万平方米，青浦和奉贤两区

的土地成交面积不相上下，分别为10.5

万平方米和10.4万平方米（见图三）。

从成交价格来看，第四季度工业用地平

均成交地价最高的仍然是闵行区，土地

单价达到每亩人民币144万元。排名第

二的是浦东新区，土地单价为每亩人民

币116.5万元。从所有土地成交来看，

金山、奉贤和嘉定的土地成交单价相对

较低，大概在每亩人民币50-55万元之

间（见图四）。

从出让面积来看，第四季度上海工业

土地一级市场单幅地块的出让面积以

5公顷以下的小面积地块为主，占到

75%，其中单幅面积在1-5公顷的地块

最多，占到56%。单幅面积大于8公顷

的土地有两幅，分别位于松江和奉贤

两区。

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6 人民币百万元/亩

松江 闵行 奉贤 嘉定 金山 青浦 浦东

图四

2017年第四季度各区工业用地 一级市场成交单价

资料来源：上海市规划和国土资源管理局，莱坊研究部

13%浦东

16%奉贤

40%松江

4%闵行

9%嘉定

2%金山

16%青浦

图三

2017年第四季度上海工业用地一级 市场成交各区占比（以土地面积计）

资料来源：上海市规划和国土资源管理局，莱坊研究部

11

研究报告上海工业市场报告 2017年第四季度

广东中山市坦洲镇——

独家代理优质工业物业项目出售

该工业物业坐落于广东省中山市坦洲镇，

毗邻珠海、深圳、澳门、香港等珠三角区

域。拥有优越的交通优势和厚实的工业基

础，是中山市工业强镇和经济强镇。

该工业物业19公里车程可抵达珠海市中

心，26.3公里车程抵达澳门；155公里车

程抵达深圳；行驶至高速公路口仅2公里

路程。

坦洲镇规划建设货运系统，包括货运物流

园，规划建立靠近高速出入口和国道，以

及建设货运通道，包括“三横三纵”高、

快速路及“环”形镇内物流通道，为工业

运输提供强大的交通便利。

坦洲镇注重发展引进国外工业企业，包括

医疗、纺织、服装、皮革产品、电子产品

以及精密机械。为吸引更多投资企业，建

立高标准工业园。

坦洲镇拥有三个工业园区，第一工业区完

成5,000亩地，第二工业区完成1,505亩

地。该工业物业位于第三工业区，占地

16,000亩地，已经吸引400家外企公司入

驻，比如日本企业住友商事、联邦制药工

厂、中山豪展铝异型材制品有限公司、倍

速特机械有限公司等。

莱坊工业项目甄选

表一

项目概要

地理位置 广东省中山市坦洲镇火炬路8号

土地面积 6.67公顷

土地用途 工业用地

所属位置区域 中山市坦洲镇第三工业园区

土地使用年限 截止至2053年3月9日

总建筑面积 30,939.16平方米

建筑面积分布 厂房：23,983.22平方米（1栋）办公：2,377.88平方米（1栋）其他区域（含宿舍）：4,578.06平方米（1栋）

闲置空地 1.5公顷

层高 厂房：11.55米厂房夹层：一层5米，二层3.2米办公：一层3.8米，二层至四层3.5米

承重 厂房：一层-0.5吨/平方米，可以架30吨行车，三层-0.255吨/平方米办公区：0.2吨/平方米

容积率 0.46

楼层数 办公区：4机械厂房带夹层:1宿舍:4

电梯 2部货梯（载重2吨）

其它配套 消防：消火栓电力：2台发电机（一台为1,600KVA，一台为640KVA）

租赁情况 办公室及厂房：10,375.4平方米及有42个房间的宿舍楼；租赁到期时间：2018年11月30日

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