seventh conference on climate variations · 103 4.2 the role of eastern pacific sea surface...

SEVENTH CONFERENCE

ON

CLIMATE VARIATIONSFebruary 2-7,1997 Long Beach, California

SPONSORED BYAMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Front Cover: Differences (mm/day) between warm and cold ENSO episodes during the 17-year period from 1979 to 1995for the DJF (top) and JJA (bottom) precipitation. Refer to page 173 of this preprint volume, paper 6.6, entitledENSO-RELATED INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY IN LARGE-SCALE PRECIPITATION DURING 19/9-1995, by Phillip A. Arkin,NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and P. Xie

TOCUB/TIB Hannover117 120 340

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All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means - graphic, electronic, or mechanical,including photocopying, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems - without the prior written permission of the publisher. ContactAMS for permission pertaining to the overall collection. Authors retain their individual rights and should be contacted directly for permission touse their material separately. The manuscripts reproduced herein are unrefereed papers presented at the Seventh Conference on ClimateVariations. Their appearance in this collection does not constitute formal publication.

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY45 BEACON STREET, BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS USA 02108-3693

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SEVENTH CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE VARIATIONSPAGE

iii FOREWORD

xvii AUTHOR INDEX

SESSION 1: MODELING OF CLIMATE SYSTEM BEHAVIOR—I. PROCESS INVESTIGATIONS AND MODELDEVELOPMENT

I 1.1 THE CLIMATE OF THE COMMUNITY CLIMATE MODEL VERSION 3.0 (CCM3). James W. Hurrell,National Ctr. for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO; and J. T. Kiehl and J. J. Hack (InvitedPresentation)

4 1.2 THE SIMPLEST QUASI-EQUIUBRIUM TROPICAL CIRCULATION MODEL-FORMULATION. J.DavidNeelin, Univ. of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA; and N. Zeng

8 1.3 THE SIMPLEST QUASI-EQUILIBRIUM TROPICAL CIRCULATION MODEL-INITIAL RESULTS. NingZeng, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin

II 1.4 A NEW GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL: FORMULATION AND RESULTS IN A SINGLE ANDMULTI-PROCESSOR ENVIRONMENT. Lance M. Leslie, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney,Australia

15 1.5 A TWO BOX EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF THE TROPICS. Kristin Larson, Univ. of Washington, Seattle,WA; and D. L. Hartmann

17 1.6 A COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN SECTOR MODEL FOR CLIMATE VARIABILITY STUDIES. G.Danabasoglu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Saravanan and J. C. McWilliams

21 1.7 SIMULATION OF THE STRATOSPHERIC CIRCULATION WITH A GENERAL CIRCULATIONMODEL. John D. Farrara, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and Y.-J. Kim and C. R. Mechoso

27 1.8 RESPONSE OF THE NCAR CCM3 TO A NEW CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION. Guang J.

Zhang, Scripps Inst. of Oceanography (SIO), La Jolla, CA; and J. T. Kiehl and P. J. Rasch

31 1.9 DISSIPATIVE HEATING IN CLIMATE MODELS. Brian Fiedler, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

35 1.10 IMPROVED SIMULATION OF PBL MOIST PROCESSES WITH THE UCLA GCM. Jui-Lin F. Li, UCLA,Los Angeles, CA; and A. Arakawa

41 1.11 ABL PARAMETERIZATION AND ABL-CONVECTION-CLOUD INTERACTON IN THE SUBTROPICALREGION IN NCAR CCM. Qingqiu Shao, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. Shaikh and R. E.Dickinson

45 1.12 NEW ASPECTS OF THE UCLA COUPLED GCM—GLOBAL OCEAN CIRCULATION ANDIMPROVED CLOUD REPRESENTATIONS. Chung-Chun Ma, UCLA, Log Angeles, CA; and J.-Y. Yu,C. R. Mechoso, and A. Arakawa

49 1.13 NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE COUPLING BETWEEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION & SURFACE EVAPORATION. Dimitris Tsintikidis, HydrologicResearch Ctr. (HRC), San Diego, CA; and G. J. Zhang

52 1.14 QUESTIONS ON USING U10 INSTEAD OF U. TO DRIVE OCEANIC MODELS. William Perrie,Bedford Inst. of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and L. Wang

* Manuscript not available

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SEVENTH CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE VARIATIONS

SESSION 2: MODELING OF CLIMATE SYSTEM BEHAVIOR—II. INTRASEASONAL AND INTERANNUALTIME-SCALES

55 2.1 A COORDINATED EUROPEAN PROGRAMME ON THE PREDICTION OF CLIMATE VARIATIONSON SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL TIMESCALES (PROVOST). Tim N. Palmer, European Ctr. forMedium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK (Invited Presentation)

56 2.2 SIMULATION OF THE ASIAN SUMMER MONSOONS OF 1987 AND 1988 WITH A REGIONAL

MODEL NESTED IN A GLOBAL GCM. Y. Ji, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. D. Vernekar

2.3 PAPER WITHDRAWN

60 2.4 THE FORCED MANIFOLD. Antonio Navarra, IMGA-CNR, Modena, Italy; and M. N. Ward

61 2.5 DECADE-LONG COUPLED GCM/REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS OVER THE UNITEDSTATES. Gregory S. Jenkins, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and E. J. Barron

65 2.6 SIGNATURES OF INTRASEASONAL CLIMATE VARIATIONS IN REGIONS OF FREQUENTPERSISTENT ANOMALIES? Douglas A. Stewart, Environmental Dynamics Research, Inc., Lantana,FL

2.7 PAPER WITHDRAWN

SESSION 3: MODELING OF CLIMATE SYSTEM BEHAVIOR—III. INTERDECADAL TIME-SCALES

71 3.1 A THEORY FOR INTERDECADAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS. Daifang Gu, Princeton Univ.,Princeton, NJ; and S. G. H. Philander (Invited Presentation)

73 3.2 CHARACTERISTICS OF COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-SEA ICE DECADAL VARIABILITY.Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO

76 3.3 ANALYTICAL PROTOTYPES FOR OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION AT MIDLATITUDES.Wenjie Weng, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin

3.4 DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE VARIATIONS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MODELED WITH A HYBRIDCOUPLED MODEL. David W. Pierce, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and T. P. Barnett and W. Xu

3.5 THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION VARIABILITY IN A COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN MODEL OFAN IDEALIZED ATLANTIC BASIN. Aaron Brasket, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Websterand S. Dixit

79 3.6 STOCHASTICITY AND SPATIAL RESONANCE IN INTERDECADAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS. R.Saravanan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. C. McWilliams

83 3.7 ADVECTIVE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION: A ONE-DIMENSIONAL ANALYTICAL MODELWITH IMPLICATIONS FOR DECADAL VARIABILITY. R. Saravanan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. C.McWilliams

87 3.8 SOURCES OF ATMOSPHERIC DECADAL VARIABILITY. David P. Rowell, Hadley Ctr. for ClimatePrediction and Research, Bracknell, Berks., UK; and F. W. Zwiers

3.9 THE ROLE OF WIND-DRIVEN OCEAN CIRCULATIONS IN DECADAL-MULTIDECADAL CLIMATEVARIABILITY. Vikram M. Mehta, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and P. S. Schopf and M. J.Suarez

90 3.10 MODES OF VARIABILITY AT DECADAL TIME SCALE IN OCEAN MODELS. Antonietta Capotondi,NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Holland

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92 3.11 TROPICALLY FORCED ROSSBY WAVES AS A SOURCE OF DECADAL VARIABILITY IN THENORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. Steven D. Meyers, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and J. J.O'Brien

97 3.12 SIMULATION OF DECADAL/INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC DRIVEN BYTHE ANOMALOUS WIND FIELD. George Halliwell, Rosenstiel School of Marine and AtmosphericScience (RSMAS)/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL

SESSION 4: PAN AMERICAN CLIMATE STUDIES

4.1 REGIONAL MESOSCALE CLIMATE SIMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. JohnD. Horel, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. B. Pechmann and R. T. Swanson, Jr.(Invited Presentation)

103 4.2 THE ROLE OF EASTERN PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MEXICANMONSOON. Timothy J. Brown, Desert Research Inst., Reno, NV; and D. L. Mitchell and R. S.Pulwarty

108 4.3 THE STRUCTURE OF THE MEXICAN MONSOON AND ITS RELATION TO THE US SUMMERTIMECIRCULATION. Mathew Barlow, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery, S. Nigam,and E. Rasmusson

4.4 SUMMER PLATEAU CIRCULATION OF MEXICO. Donna F. Tucker, Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS;and C. Sramek

109 4.5 EL NINO IMPACT ON RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN BRAZIL. Alice M. Grimm, Federal Univ. ofParana, Curitiba, Brazil

114 4.6 DYNAMICAL MECHANISMS OF THE EL NINO IMPACT ON RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN BRAZILIN THE AUSTRAL SPRING. Alice M. Grimm, Federal Univ. of Parana, Curitiba, Brazil

119 4.7 LONG-TERM STREAMFLOW AND RAINFALL FLUCTUATIONS IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:AMAZONIA, EASTERN BRAZIL AND NORTHWEST PERU. Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, SaoPaulo, Brazil; and J. Tomasella and C. R. B. Uvo

123 4.8 FEATURES OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER STORM TRACK NEAR THE ANDESMOUNTAINS. Carlina S. Vera, CIMA Univ. de Buenos Aires/CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina; andE. H. Berbery

125 4.9 LOW-FREQUENCY PROCESSES RELATED TO CONTINENTAL-SCALE U.S. PRECIPITATION. X.L. Wang, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Weather Service(NWS)/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Washington, DC; and E. S. Yarosh andC. F. Ropelewski

129 4.10 HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT IN THE UNITED STATES. Daniel C. Edwards, ColoradoState Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist

SESSION 5: THE EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION PHENOMENON—I. MODELING AND MECHANISMS

5.1 DECADAL VARIABILITY IN SINGULAR VALUES AND FORECAST ERROR IN A MODEL OF ENSO.David S. Battisti, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. J. Barsugli and Y.-Q. Chen (InvitedPresentation)

132 5.2 EL NINO AND THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AS SIMULATED IN THE NCEP COUPLEDOCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL. Deng-Hua Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Jiand A. Leetmaa

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5.3 LONG-TERM ENSO VARIABILITY IN A HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED GCM. Ron L. Miller,Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and X. Jiang, W. Russell, and I. Fung

136 5.4 TEMPORAL STRUCTURE OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii,Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang

5.5 IMPACT OF AN INTERACTIVE ASIAN MONSOON ON EL NINO/LA NINA CHARACTERISTICS INAN INTERMEDIATE COUPLED MODEL. Chul Chung, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S.Nigam

140 5.6 EAST ASIAN WINTER MONSOON FORCED TROPICAL SST CHANGES NEAR THE WESTERNPACIFIC AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH ENSO. Yi Zhang, Lawrence Livermore National Lab.(LLNL), Livermore, CA

141 5.7 THE ROLE OF SST AND GROUND WETNESS IN THE VARIABILITY OF THE ASIAN SUMMERMONSOON. Song Yang, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Ctr. (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD; and W. K.-M. Lau

145 5.8 INTERANNUAL PREDICTABILITY AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY. Christopher Torrence, Univ.of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster and G. P. Compo

149 5.9 ON THE PHASE TRANSITION OF THE EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION: A STATIONARY SSTMODE. Tianming Li, Naval Research Lab. (NRL), Monterey, CA

5.10 ON THE OPTIMAL GROWTH OF INDO-PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES:THE ROLE OF THE ANNUAL CYCLE. Cecile Penland, Cooperative Inst. for Research in theEnvironmental Sciences (CIRES)/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

155 5.11 ON SIMPLIFICATION OF THE COUPLED TROPICAL OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM. BinWang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

SESSION 6: THE EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) PHENOMENON—II. TELECONNECTIONSTUDIES USING OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS

160 6.1 LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH TIME-DEPENDENT PERIODIC ENSO-LIKESST ANOMALIES. Ming Cai, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. M. van den Dool (InvitedPresentation)

166 6.2 IDENTIFYING THE MOST SENSITIVE AREAS OF TROPICAL SST FORCING FOR MIDLATITUDESEASONAL PREDICTION. Joseph J. Barsugli, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. D.Sardeshmukh and S. Zhang

6.3 BAROCLINIC EDDY FEEDBACK IN THE ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO SST FORCING.Nicholas M. J. Hall, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

6.4 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NASA/GEOS ASSIMILATED AND ECMWF ANALYZED DIVERGENTCIRCULATIONS: CAUSES AND DYNAMICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR EL NINO WINTERTIMEANOMALIES. Eric DeWeaver, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam

168 6.5 ENSO TELECONNECTIONS IN TROPICAL SSTS AND THEIR CAUSES. Stephen A. KleinNOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab. (GFDL), Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and B. J. Soden andN.-C. Lau

170 6.6 ENSO-RELATED INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY IN LARGE-SCALE PRECIPITATION DURING1979-1995. Phillip A. Arkin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and P. Xie

6.7 EL NINO, LA NINA, AND THE NONLINEARITY OF THEIR TELECONNECTIONS. Martin P. Hoerling,CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. Kumar and M. Zhong

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174 6.8 NONLINEARITIES OF OBSERVED MONTHLY TELECONNECTIONS BETWEEN TROPICALPACIFIC SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTHAMERICAN PRECIPITATION. David L. Montroy, Cooperative Inst. for Mesoscale MeteorologicalStudies (CIMMS)/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. B. Richman and P. J. Lamb

180 6.9 THE IMPACT OF THE ANNUAL CYCLE UPON THE NORTH PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICANRESPONSE TO LOW FREQUENCY FORCING. Matthew Newman, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado,Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

184 6.10 PERSISTENCE OF NORTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN RELATION TO ENSOOCCURENCE. Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY

189 6.11 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EL NINO-SOUTHERNOSCILLATION. Lishan Tseng, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and C. R. Mechoso

195 6.12 INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS IN THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEANDURING 1982-1994: POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION.Charles Jones, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and C. Gautier and S. Taylor

SESSION 7: ROLE OF OCEANS IN CLIMATE VARIABILITY—I. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORCINGOF GCMs

196 7.1 INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OVER THE PNA REGION BETWEEN OBSERVATIONS AND ANENSEMBLE OF GCM RUNS WITH PRESCRIBED SSTS. Robert E. Livezey, NOAA/NWS/NCEP,Camp Springs, MD; and T. M. Smith (Invited Presentation)

202 7.2 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN AN ENSEMBLE OF CLIMATE SIMULATIONS CONDUCTED WITHTHE COMMUNITY CLIMATE MODEL VERSION 3.0. James W. Hurrell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; andM. L. Blackmon and M. P. Hoerling

SESSION 7: ROLE OF OCEANS IN CLIMATE VARIABILITY—I. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORCINGOF GCMs

7.3 INDIAN OCEAN SST ANOMALIES AND THEIR GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC IMPACT. Arun Kumar,NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. P. Hoerling

204 7.4 PATTERN ANALYSIS OF SST-FORCED VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE GCM SIMULATIONS . M. NeilWard, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Navarra

7.5 THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERECIRCULATION AS SEEN IN THE NCEP GCM SIMULATIONS AND OBSERVATIONS. Peitao Peng,NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and N.-C. Lau

207 7.6 A SIMULATION STUDY ON ENSO STRUCTURES. You Xingtian, Beijing Meteorological College,Beijing, China; and Q. Weihong

7.7 THE MODELED ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO MIDLATITUDE SST ANOMALIES AND ITSDEPENDENCE ON BACKGROUND CIRCULATION STATES. Shiling Peng, CIRES/Univ. ofColorado, Boulder, CO; and W. A. Robinson, M. P. Hoerling, and A. Kumar

SESSION 8: CLOUD-RADIATION-HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE INTERACTIONS

8.1 CONTRIBUTION OF STORM CLOUDS TO THE RADIATIVE BALANCE IN THE MIDLATITUDEREGIONS. George Tselioudis, NASA/Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY; andY. Zhang and W. B. Rossow (Invited Presentation)

213 8.2 TRACKING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR. Brian J. Soden, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

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215 8.3 THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED TROPICAL INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE UPPERTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CLOUD. Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei,Taiwan; and E. Roeckner

217 8.4 VARIABILITY OF CLOUD -RADIATIVE FORCING OVER THE ENTIRE TROPICAL OCEANS DURINGAN EL NINO EVENT: OBSERVATION AND MODELING. M. H. Zhang, State Univ. of New York(SUNY), Stony Brook, NY

221 8.5 PRECIPITABLE WATER VARIABILITY FOR THE SUMMERS OF 1987 AND 1988 AS SEEN INSATELLITE AND NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS DATA OVER THE CONTINENTAL U. S. Anthony R.Guillory, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Ctr. (MSFC), Huntsville, AL

223 8.6 THERMAL RESPONSE OF LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION TO ISCCPCLOUD-INDUCED LONGWAVE HEATING. Byung-Ju Sohn, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea; andW. M. Lapenta and F. R. Robertson

227 8.7 EXPLAINING THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF ARCTIC STRATUS. Tony Beesley, Univ. of Washington,Seattle, WA

8.8 ANNUAL VARIATIONS OF CLOUDS, SURFACE FLUXES, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THENCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS DATA. John W. Bergman, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; andH. H. Hendon

233 8.9 ON THE ROLE OF ICE PROCESSES IN A DEEP CONVECTIVE STORM AND ITS IMPLICATION ONHYDROLOGICAL CYCLE. Pao K. Wang, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wl

237 8.10 ICE CLOUD FORMULATION IN CLIMATE MODELING. Martin Koehler, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; andC. R. Mechoso and A. Arakawa

243 8.11 EFFECTS OF ICE CLOUD AND CLOUD OVERLAPPING SCHEMES ON GCM CLIMATESIMULATIONS. Chang-Hoi Ho, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M.-D. Chou, M. J. Suarez, andW. K.-M. Lau

8.12 MODULATION OF THE ICE-ALBEDO FEEDBACK BY CLOUDS. Judith A. Curry, Univ. of Colorado,Boulder, CO; and J. L. Schramm

247 8.13 DYNAMICAL RESPONSE TO DUST AEROSOL FORCING AND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHEREMONSOONS. Ron L Miller, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and I. Tegen

253 8.14 CLOUDINESS AND RADIATION PARAMETERIZATIONS FOR INTERMEDIATE TROPICALATMOSPHERIC MODELS. Chia Chou, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin

257 8.15 SENSITIVITY OF A PHYSICALLY-BASED CLOUD PACKAGE IN THE NCAR CCM2. C.-Y. J. Kao,Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM; and W. S. Smith

INCLUDING A BULK MICROPHYSICAL SCHEME IN A SINGLE COLUMN MODEL. Jon C. Petch,NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Kiehl

INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE,CLOUDS, AND OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION BASED ON TOVS RETRIEVALS. AmitaMehta, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Susskind

CLIMATE TREND IN OLR OVER THE TROPICAL INDIAN AND WESTERN PACIFIC OCEANS.Pao-Shin Chu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and J.-B. Wang

Paper to be presented in First Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, Session 2, Paper 2.6

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8.17

8.18

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268 8.20 COMPARISONS OF CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL AND OPTICAL PARAMETERS OBTAINED FROMAIRCRAFT, SATELLITE, AND LIDAR OBSERVATIONS DURING RACE. Ismail Gultepe, AtmosphericEnvironment Service (AES), Downsview, ON, Canada; and G. A. Isaac, K. B. Strawbridge, C. M.Banic, and W. R. Leaitch

SESSION 9: ROLE OF OCEANS IN CLIMATE VARIABILITY—II. PACIFIC WARM POOL, TOGA COARE,AND COLD TONGUE INVESTIGATIONS

272 9.1 MODELING THE PACIFIC WARM POOL WITH THE NCAR CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL. J. T. Kiehl,NCAR, Boulder, CO (Invited Presentation)

276 9.2 THE INFLUENCE OF THE MADDEN AND JULIAN OSCILLATION ON OCEAN SURFACE HEATFLUXES AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IN THE WARM POOLREGION. Charles Jones, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and D. E. Waliser and C. Gautier

282 9.3 TROPICAL ZONAL SST GRADIENTS: A COUPLED RESPONSE TO RADIATIVE FEEDBACKS ANDTHE MERIDIONAL GRADIENTS IN INSOLATION. De-Zheng Sun, NCAR, Boulder, CO

287 9.4 OCEANIC REGULATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC WALKER CIRCULATION. Zhengyu Liu, Univ. ofWisconsin, Madison, Wl

288 9.5 ON THE BASIC FLOW OF SUPER CLOUD CLUSTERS. Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt,MD; and L. Deng

292 9.6 LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DURING TOGA COARE IOP COMPARED TO ARECENT CLIMATOLOGY. Christopher C. Hennon, Purdue Univ., W. Lafayette, IN; and D. G. Vincent

296 9.7 INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC DURING TOGA COARE IOP.Baode Chen, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Yanai

300 9.8 MIXED-LAYER HEAT BUDGET IN THE PACIFIC COLD TONGUE. Mark S. Swenson, NOAA/AtlanticOceanographic and Marine Labs. (AOML), Miami, FL; and D. V. Hansen

SESSION 10: ROLE OF OCEANS IN CLIMATE VARIABILITY—III. DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES OFMULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY

305 10.1 ARE WE SEEING A LONG-TERM UPTURN IN ATLANTIC BASIN MAJOR HURRICANE ACTIVITYRELATED TO DECADAL-SCALE SST FLUCTUATIONS? Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/HurricaneResearch Division (HRD)/AOML, Miami, FL; and L. J. Shapiro and C. W. Landsea (InvitedPresentation)

311 10.2 DECADAL VARIATIONS IN RADIATION, CLOUDS, AND CIRCULATION DURING THE 80's & 90's.Dennis L. Hartmann, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. H. Tashima

10.3 DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY OVER THE WORLD OCEANS. Sumant Nigam, Univ. of Maryland,College Park, MD; and Y. Chao

313 10.4 THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION AS A FLYWHEEL FOR MULTI-DECADALGLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES. William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins,CO; and J. D. Sheaffer

319 10.5 THE RE-EMERGENCE OF MIDLATITUDE SST ANOMALIES. Michael Alexander, CIRES/Univ. ofColorado, Boulder, CO; and C. Deser and M. Timlin

10.6 DECADAL VARIATIONS IN SEA ICE, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND ATMOSPHERICCIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. Clara Deser, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

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SESSION 11: INTRASEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL MONSOON VARIABILITY

321 11.1 OCEAN-LAND-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION AND THE INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY OF THECOUPLED MONSOON SYSTEM AND RELATIONSHIPS TO PREDICTABILITY OF CLIMATE.Peter J. Webster, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. Dixit and T. N. Palmer (Invited Presentation)

11.2 INERTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND VARIABILITY IN THE INDIANMONSOON. Robert A. Tomas, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

326 11.3 THE ROLE OF THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE IN INTRASEASONAL MONSOON VARIABILITY. JohnFasullo, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

11.4 PAPER WITHDRAWN

332 11.5 REGIONAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON.Mong-Ming Lu, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan

334 11.6 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC HIGH AND ITS IMPACTON THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET REVEALED BY SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.Qian Ye, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

337 11.7 THE ASSOCIATION OF SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE WITH INTERANNUAL AND DECADALRAINFALL IN TROPICAL NORTH AFRICA. M. Neil Ward, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

341 11.8 SOIL MOISTURE AND THE GENERATION OF THE WEST AFRICAN JET. Kerry H. Cook, CornellUniv., Ithaca, NY

11.9 ON SAHELIAN DISTURBANCE LINE CHARACTERISTICS AND TROPOSPHERIC STRUCTURE: ACLIMATE PERSPECTIVE FROM DAILY OBSERVATIONS. Peter J. Lamb, CIMMS/Univ. ofOklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. A. Bell and J. D. Finch

SESSION 12: DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES OF GLOBAL, HEMISPHERIC, AND REGIONAL-SCALE CLIMATEVARIABILITY

344 12.1 GLOBAL MOMENTUM AND ENERGY SIGNALS FROM REANALYSIS SYSTEMS. David Salstein,AER, Inc., Cambridge, MA; and R. D. Rosen (Invited Presentation)

12.2 SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GLOBALPRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY PROJECT DATA SET. Arnold Gruber, NOAA/NationalEnvironmental Satellite Data Information Service (NESDIS), Washington, DC

349 12.3 CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATIONOVER THE DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IN WINTERTIME. Olga A.Razorenova, P. P. Shirshov Inst. of Oceanology, Moscow, Russia

12.4 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF PRESSURE SURGES OCCURRING PARALLEL TO THEHIMALAYAN, ANDES, AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. Gilbert P. Compo, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO;and G. N. Kiladis and P. J. Webster

354 12.5 REGIONALIZATION OF MOROCCAN PRECIPITATION FOR MONITORING AND PREDICTION.Mostafa El Hamly, DMN, Casablanca, Morocco; and R. Sebbari, D. H. Portis, M. N. Ward, and P. J.Lamb

358 12.6 DEVELOPING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MOROCCAN PRECIPITATION AND THE CLIMATESYSTEM. Mostafa El Hamly, DMN, Casablanca, Morocco; and R. Sebbari, D. H. Portis, M. N. Ward,and P. J. Lamb

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359 12.7 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN PRECIPITATION OBSERVATIONS OVER THE IBERIANPENINSULA. Concepcion Rodriguez-Puebla, Univ. de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain; and A. H.Encinas

363 12.8 VARIATIONS IN NEW ENGLAND SNOWFALL 1950-1992. Suzanne Hartley, Rutgers Univ., NewBrunswick, NJ

368 12.9 TROPICAL VERSUS MID-LATITUDE FORCING OF SUBTROPICAL JET STREAKS OVER THESOUTH PACIFIC. Dayton G. Vincent, Purdue Univ., W. Lafayette, IN; and K.-C. Ko and J. M. Schrage

372 12.10 ANNUAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE KINETIC ENERGY OF THEAUSTRALIAN-SOUTH PACIFIC JET STREAM. Matthew D. Eastin, Purdue Univ., W. Lafayette, IN;and D. G. Vincent

376 12.11 INTERDECADAL OSCILLATION AS DETECTED FROM LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION RECORD.Xiao-Wei Quan, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

382 12.12 SUMMERTIME ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS AS REVEALED IN NMC ANALYSIS ANDNCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS. Fong-Chiau Chang, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and G. J. Jedlovec

386 12.13 CHARACTERISTICS OF SEASONAL CYCLES OF SLP AND 500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS:COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS. Igor I. Zveryaev, P. P. Shirshov Inst. of Oceanology, Moscow, Russia

12.14 SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OF A 20-30 DAY OSCILLATION IN ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURESAND TROPICAL CONVECTION. Ebby Anyamba, Universities Space Research Association,NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Susskind, E. Williams, J. Otterman, and M. Fullekrug

JOINT SESSION J1: CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE OCCURENCE OF NATURAL DISASTERS (Joint with13th Conference on Hydrology)

J1.1 YEARLY AND MULTI-DECADAL VARIATIONS IN US HURRICANE LANDFALL AS RELATED TOPAST AND CONCURRENT DIFFERENCES IN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CIRCULATIONS.William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke, Jr., K. J. Berry,and J. A. Knaff (Invited Presentation)

J1 J1.2 NATIONAL DROUGHT ATLAS. Nathaniel B. Guttman, NOAA/National Climatic Data Ctr. (NCDC),Asheville, NC (Invited Presentation)

J5 J1.3 CLIMATIC PREDICTION OF FLOOD STATISTICS WITH A FUZZY RULE-BASED APPROACH.Istvan Bogardi, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and L. Duckstein, A. Bardossy, and H. P. Nachtnebel

J9 J1.4 THE CONTRIBUTION OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY TO SUSTAINING THEENVIRONMENT OF LARGE CITIES. J. C. R. Hunt, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK (InvitedPresentation)

J14 J1.5 ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION CHANGES AND LINKS TO CHANGES IN RAINFALL ANDDROUGHT. Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Shea (Invited Presentation)

J1.6 THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY. Chester F. Ropelewski, NOAA/Climate Prediction Ctr. (CPC), Washington, DC (Invited Presentation)

J1.7 LOW FREQUENCY HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILITY: IDENTIFICATION, UNDERSTANDING ANDPREDICTION). Upmanu Lall, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (Invited Presentation)

J18 J1.8 ACCENTUATED ENSO EFFECTS ON EXTREME HYDROLOGIC EVENTS OVER THE WESTERNUNITED STATES. D. R. Cayan, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and K. T. Redmond and L. Riddle

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J20 J1.9 STREAMFLOW FORECASTING IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA: ASSOCIATIONS WITH TROPICAL SEASURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX. Thomas C. Piechota,UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and J. A. Dracup, F. H. Chiew, and T. McMahon

J24 J1.10 THE GLOBAL ENSO PICTURE: INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY. Rob Allan,Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Mordialloc, Vic, Australia;and J. Lindesay and D. Parker (Invited Presentation)

J28 J1.11 ON THE FLOW VARIABILITY OF THE URUGUAY RIVER IN SOUTH AMERICA. S. A. Bischoff, Univ.of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and N. 0. Garcia and W. M. Vargas

J31 J1.12 APPLICATION OF A STOCHASTIC/DYNAMICAL MODEL IN THE STUDY OF OCEANIC, TROPICALRAINFALL AND RUNOFF. Dimitris Tsintikidis, HRC, San Diego, CA; and K. P. Georgakakos

J34 J1.13 LONG-RANGE HYDROPOWER SYSTEM OPERATION PLANNING USING ENSO INFORMATION.A. P. Georgakakos, Georgia Tech., Atlanta, GA; and H. Yao, A. M. Grimm, A. K. Guetter, L. Munhozda Cunha, and K. P. Georgakakos

J36 J1.14 OPTIMAL USE AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF FORECAST INFORMATION: THE CASE OFIRRIGATION SCHEDULING. D. S. Wilks, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and D. W. Wolfe

J40 J1.15 AFRICAN SAHEL RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND SEASONAL FORECASTING. Christopher W.Landsea, NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and W. M. Gray, P. W. Mielke, Jr., and K. J. Berry (InvitedPresentation)

J1.16 OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL IN NEW ZEALAND AND ITS HYDROLOGICAL IMPORTANCE. Alan W.Seed, Univ. of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and G. L. Austin

JOINT POSTER SESSION JP1 (Joint with 13th Conference on Hydrology)

J44 JP1.1 RESPONSE OF HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE TO TINY RANDOM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUREDISTURBANCES. Peter C. Chu, Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Monterey, CA; and S. Lu

J48 JP1.2 POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE OF ORGANIZED TROPICAL CONVECTION. Jenni L Evans, PennState Univ., University Park, PA; and F. A. Jaskiewicz and R. E. Shemo

J50 JP1.3 INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF RAINFALL DURING SOUTHWEST ASIAN MONSOON AND RICEYIELD IN THAILAND RELATED TO THE VARIATION OF SST AND SOI. Taikan Oki, Univ. of Tokyo,Tokyo, Japan; and K. Musiake

JP1.4 WATER IMPACTS IN CHINA DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE. Liu Chunzhen, Water Information Ctr.,Beijing, China

J52 JP1.5 INFLUENCES OF TIBET PLATEAU ON MEIYU HEAVY RAINS IN CHINA. Zhu He, BeijingMeteorological College, Beijing, China

J54 JP1.6 THE ROLE OF CLOUDS IN THE PREDICTABILITY OF EXTREME FLOODS. Ana P. Barros, PennState Univ., University Park, PA

JP1.7 TRENDS IN U.S. EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS. Kenneth E. Kunkel, Illinois State WaterSurvey (ISWS), Champaign, IL; and D. R. Easterling and K. Andsager

J55 JP1.8 ASSESSING CLIMATIC CHANGES IN THE OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN THECENTRAL UNITED STATES. A. Allen Bradley, Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and H. Zhao

J57 JP1.9 ASSOCIATION OF THE NILE RIVER STREAMFLOW ANOMALIES WITH LOW FREQUENCYCLIMATIC INDICES. Alexandre K. Guetter, HRC, San Diego, CA; and D. R. Cayan

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J61 JP1.10 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX AND THE STANDARDIZEDPRECIPITATION INDEX. Nathaniel B. Guttman, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC

J63 JP1.11 INTEGRATED FORECAST-CONTROL SCHEMES FOR OPERATIONAL RESERVOIRMANAGEMENT WITH APPLICATION IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL. A. P. Georgakakos, Georgia Inst. ofTechnology, Atlanta, GA; and K. P. Georgakakos, H. Yao, A. K. Guetter, A. M. Grimm, and L. Munhozda Cunha

J66 JP1.12 MANAGEMENT OF PARANA RIVER FLOODS UNDER INCREASING UNCERTAINTY. Carlos U.Paoli, Univ. Nacional de Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina; and P. A. Cacik and J. E. A. Bolzicco

JOINT SESSION J2: HISTORICAL, CURRENT, AND PROJECTED CLIMATE TRENDS—MODELING,OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES, AND SOCIETAL IMPACTS (Joint Session with Eighth Symposium on GlobalChange Studies and AMS Committee on Societal Impacts)

J2.1 A TRANSIENT CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATION WITH HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED GHG ANDAEROSOL FORCING. George Boer, AES, Victoria, BC, Canada; and G. Flato, C. Reader, and D.Ramsden (Invited Presentation)

J73 J2.2 VARIATIONS IN TROPICAL GREENHOUSE FORCING DURING EL NINO. Brian J. Soden,NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

J75 J2.3 ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH ENSO.William K.-M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C.-H. Ho

J79 J2.4 THE EFFECT OF VARIABLE ATMOSPHERIC FORCING ON OCEANIC SUBDUCTION OF APASSIVE TRACER IN A NUMERICAL MODEL: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL WARMING. FionaHorsfall, National Hurricane Ctr., Miami, FL; and R. Bleck and H. P. Hanson

J2.5 ROLE OF DIFFERENT ICE PHYSICAL PROCESSES IN DETERMINING THE RESPONSE OF SEAICE TO SURFACE HEAT FLUX PERTURBATIONS. Judith A. Curry, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO;and J. L. Schramm

J83 J2.6 CURRENT TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS IN FREE ATMOSPHERE: LOWER STRATOSPHERE ISPERSISTENTLY BECOMING COOLER. Rudolf H. Reitenbach, RIHMI-WDC, Obninsk, Russia; andA. M. Sterin, V. A. Orzhekhovskaya, and S. V. Trutnev

J88 J2.7 MAJOR CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE OF THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA DURING THE LAST 50YEARS. John Turner, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK; and J. King, S. Harangozo, W.Connolley, and G. Marshall

J92 J2.8 ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR SELECTED REPORTING STATIONSIN NORTH AMERICA. Thomas J. Walsh, Fairfield, OH

J2.9 PAPER WITHDRAWN

J97 J2.10 SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATIONS OF RUSSIAN WINTER SNOW ACCUMULATION.Hengchun Ye, Emporia State Univ., Emporia, KS; and H.-R. Cho

J101 J2.11 ELEVATION DEPENDENCY OF THE SURFACE CLIMATE CHANGE SIGNAL: A MODEL STUDY.Filippo Giorgi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Hurrell, M. R. Marinuci, and M. Beniston

J105 J2.12 OBSERVATIONAL AND NUMERICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF CHANGES IN CLIMATOLOGICALEXTREMES IN TERMS OF SHIFTS IN MEANS. Martine Rebetez, Swiss Federal Inst. for Forestry,Snow and Landscape Research, Lausanne, Switzerland; and M. Beniston

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J108 J2.13 RESPONSE OF THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE TO AN INCREASE OF ATMOSPHERICMOISTURE RELATED TO GLOBAL WARMING. Christoph Frei, Atmospheric Physics ETH, Zurich,Switzerland; and M. Widmann, D. Luthi, H. C. Davies, and C. Schar

J2.14 THE BLACK AND THE CASPIAN SEA LEVELS - THE INDICATOR OF REGIONAL CLIMATECHANGE. Yu A. Reva, P. P. Shirshov Inst. of Oceanology, Moscow, Russia

J112 J2.15 CHANGES IN MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT HIGH ELEVATION STATIONS INTHE CENTRAL ANDES OF SOUTH AMERICA. Ramon A. Quintana-Gomez, UNELLEZ, Barinas,Venezuela

J114 J2.16 PHYSICAL IMPACTS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST AFRICAN SAHEL AND THEQUESTION OF DESERTIFICATION. Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; andM. Ba

J117 J2.17 A MODELING STUDY OF THE ROLE OF DEFORESTATION ON THE CLIMATE OF CENTRAL ANDEASTERN AFRICA. Fredrick H. M. Semazzi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and L. Sun andF. Giorgi

J121 J2.18 URBAN HEAT ISLANDS IN CHINA AND DECADAL-SCALE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY. David A.Portman, AER, Cambridge, MA

J2.19 PAPER WITHDRAWN

J123 J2.20 THE GODDARD DAAC IS CREATING NEW AIDS TO FACILITATE CLIMATE VARIATION STUDIES.H. Lee Kyle, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. N. Serafino, J. M. McManus, P. L. Hrubiak, andL. C. Millin

J128 J2.21 SEPARATING DIFFERENT SCALES OF MOTION IN TIME SERIES OF METEOROLOGICALVARIABLES. Robert E. Eskridge, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Y. Ku, S. T. Rao, P. S. Porter,and I. G. Zurbenko

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seventh conference on climate variations · 103 4.2 the role of eastern pacific sea surface...

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