session 3: case studies low flows and floods – amazon basin jean loup guyot – ird lima –...

Session 3: Case studiesSession 3: Case studiesLow flows and floods – Amazon Basin Low flows and floods – Amazon Basin

Jean Loup GUYOT – IRD Lima – [email protected] - www.mpl.ird.fr/hybam Jean Loup GUYOT – IRD Lima – [email protected] - www.mpl.ird.fr/hybam

UPS ToulouseUPS ToulouseANA BrasíliaANA BrasíliaUnB BrasíliaUnB BrasíliaUFF NiteroíUFF NiteroíUFRJ Rio de JaneiroUFRJ Rio de JaneiroINAMHI QuitoINAMHI QuitoSENAMHI LimaSENAMHI LimaUNALM LimaUNALM LimaSENAMHI La PazSENAMHI La PazUMSA La PazUMSA La Paz

Amazon Drainage BasinAmazon Drainage Basin

the largest basin of the world

(Area : 6 000 000 km²)

≈ 5% of continental areas

≈ 20% of fresh water discharge

7 countries

Mean discharge : 200 000 m³.s-1

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Rai

nfa

ll s

tati

on

s n

um

ber

Colombia

Ecuador

Peru

Bolivia

Brasil

Rainfall DataRainfall Data

Rainfall stations from :Rainfall stations from :ANA (Brazil),ANA (Brazil),SENAMHI (Bolivia and Peru),SENAMHI (Bolivia and Peru),INAMHI (Ecuador)INAMHI (Ecuador)IDEAM (ColombiaIDEAM (Colombia

Rainfall data

1/1/1900 1/1/1920 1/1/1940 1/1/1960 1/1/1980 1/1/2000

+0003-7538-M1

+0004-5111-M1

+0005-5106-M1

+0013-6396-M1

+0013-6854-M1

+0014-6921-M1

+0017-6795-M1

+0017-7656-M1

+0021-7605-M1

+0022-6348-M1

+0023-7621-M1

+0024-7705-M1

+0025-697801-M1

+0025-697802-M1

+0029-7649-M1

+0030-5112-M1

+0031-7628-M1

+0031-7652-M1

+0034-5174-M1

+0037-6731-M1

+0038-6664-M1

+0042-7635-M1

+0043-6883-M1

+0045-6507-M1

+0050-5074-M1

+0051-6046-M1

+0052-7102-M1

+0054-7046-M1

+0054-7634-M1

+0058-6780-M1

+0058-6958-M1

+0058-7624-M1

+0060-6919-M1

+0061-6658-M1

+0063-6613-M1

+0064-5686-M1

+0064-5687-M1

This methodology consists in assuming that for the same climatic zone under the same rainfall regime, the annual pluviometric totals are pseudo proportional, with a little random variation every year due to rain distribution in the zone.

To calculate this “Vector” station, the RVM applies the concept of extended average rainfall to the work period, which is an estimation of the average possible value that would have been obtained through continuous observations during the study period. Based on the above mentioned, the Least Squares Method is applied to find the Regional Annual Pluviometric Regional Indexes Zi and the extended average rainfall Pj. This may be calculated by minimizing the sum of the formula (1), where i is the year index, j is the station index, N is the number of years, and M is the number of stations. Pij is the annual rainfall in the station j, the year i; Pj is the extended average rainfall to the period of N years; and finally, Zi is the regional pluviometric index of the year i. The series of the chronological indexes Zi is called “Regional Annual Pluviometric Indexes Vector”.

M

j=i

j

ijN

=i

ZP

P

11

.

Regional Vector Method - RVMRegional Vector Method - RVM

Hiez (1977) & Brunet-Moret (1979)Hiez (1977) & Brunet-Moret (1979)

25 vectors (homogenous areas) : 16 in the Andean Countries, 9 in Brazil25 vectors (homogenous areas) : 16 in the Andean Countries, 9 in Brazil

Espinoza et al. (submitted). Espinoza et al. (submitted).

n = 1446 (756)1964/2003

50W55W60W65W70W75W80W

05N

00

05S

15S

10S

20S

Km

300mm

6 000

3 000

Mean annual rainfallMean annual rainfall

0.1

0.5

1.0

50W55W60W65W70W75W80W

05N

00

05S

15S

10S

20S

PurusJuruá Madeira

Tapajó

s

Xin

gu

Negro

Bra

nco

Amazonas

Marañón

Uca

yali

Seasonal Variability Coefficient (sVC)Seasonal Variability Coefficient (sVC)

05N

00

05S

15S

10S

20S

50W55W60W65W70W75W80W

0.05

0.25

0.50

Interannual Variability Coefficient (iVC)Interannual Variability Coefficient (iVC)

0.1

1.0

2.0

3.0

50W55W60W65W70W75W80W

05N

00

05S

15S

10S

20S

Interannual VC / Seasonal VCInterannual VC / Seasonal VC

PLUIE ANNUEL

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

mm

Espinoza et al. (submitted). Espinoza et al. (submitted).

- 0.32 % / year- 0.32 % / year

Mean annual rainfall trend (Óbidos)Mean annual rainfall trend (Óbidos)

TAMSHIYACU

Espinoza et al. (2006).Espinoza et al. (2006).

Mean annual rainfall trend (Tamshiyacu)Mean annual rainfall trend (Tamshiyacu)

- 0.83 % / year- 0.83 % / year

Callède et al. (2004). Callède et al. (2004).

n = 431943/1999

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Année

Pluv

iom

étri

e (m

m)

Série 1940/2003

Série 1945/1998

Callède et al. (submitted). Callède et al. (submitted).

n = 1631940/2003

No trendNo trend

0

50

100

150

200

250

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Dis

char

ge

stat

ion

s n

um

ber

Colombia

Ecuador

Peru

Bolivia

Brasil

Discharge DataDischarge Data

Gauging stations from :Gauging stations from :ANA (Brazil),ANA (Brazil),SENAMHI (Bolivia),SENAMHI (Bolivia),INAMHI (Ecuador),INAMHI (Ecuador),HYBAM (Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador)HYBAM (Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador)

ÓbidosTamshiyacu

Estación: 10075000 = Tamshiyacu (Amazonas)Captor: I-1 = Données Opérationnelles

Gráfico de las Cotas

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

30/09/1983 26/06/1986 22/03/1989 17/12/1991 12/09/1994 08/06/1997 04/03/2000 29/11/2002

Co

tas

Código-'L'

Código-'R'

Reconstructing / Correcting Water Level DataReconstructing / Correcting Water Level Data

ADCP Discharge Measure (Tamshiyacu gauging station, Peru)ADCP Discharge Measure (Tamshiyacu gauging station, Peru)

Estación: 10075000 = Tamshiyacu (Amazonas)Captor: I-1 = Cotes Captor de Salida: I-1

Calibración del 01/10/1983 hasta nuestros días

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000

Cota en escala (cm)

Ca

ud

al

(m3

/s)

Aforos

Tabla de calibración

Rating curve (Tamshiyacu gauging station, Peru)Rating curve (Tamshiyacu gauging station, Peru)

ADCP Discharge Data (Óbidos gauging station, Brazil)ADCP Discharge Data (Óbidos gauging station, Brazil)

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Water Level (cm)

Dis

char

ge

(m3/

s)

USGS_CAMREX_DNAEE (Grandes Rios)

DNAEE (Moving Boat)

HYBAM (ADCP)

Historical Gauging Data (Óbidos gauging station, Brazil)Historical Gauging Data (Óbidos gauging station, Brazil)

TAM SAI

ACASER

CAR

G-L

PVE

FVA

MAN

OBI

ALT

Peru

Ecuador

Colombia

Venezuela

Bolivia

Brasil

Km

ITA

99% Positive significance99% Negative significance

STATION r ρ T r ρ T r ρ T Qmax Qm Qmin AmpCAR -0.206 -0.198 -0.113 0.069 0.057 0.046 0.054 0.15 0.085 -0.574 0.203 0.316 -0.619SER 0.207 0.207 0.136 0.062 0.101 0.067 -0.140 -0.067 -0.048 0.215 0.066 -0.546 0.404ACA 0.003 0.074 0.053 -0.058 -0.073 -0.044 0.269 0.258 0.168 0.002 -0.057 1.323 -0.394TAM -0.180 -0.162 -0.108 -0.486 -0.459 -0.315 -0.558 -0.48 -0.347 -0.222 -0.601 -1.307 0.337SAI 0.605 0.671 0.503 0.595 0.667 0.471 -0.224 -0.209 -0.13 0.751 0.826 -0.716 2.101G-L 0.187 0.198 0.136 -0.173 -0.0074 -0.039 -0.358 -0.177 -0.106 0.095 -0.174 -0.731 0.190PVE -0.253 -0.254 -0.168 -0.436 -0.432 -0.283 -0.547 -0.585 -0.382 -0.340 -0.679 -1.410 -0.220ALT -0.310 -0.187 -0.108 -0.257 -0.174 -0.108 0.080 -0.035 -0.045 -0.690 -0.590 0.196 -1.016ITA -0.160 -0.003 0.002 -0.448 -0.417 -0.278 -0.445 -0.51 -0.39 -0.180 -0.617 -1.200 -0.197

OBI* 0.015 -0.004 -0.011 -0.099 -0.073 -0.053 -0.330 -0.24 -0.168 0.016 -0.099 -0.558 0.427MAN 0.141 0.144 0.09 0.289FVA -0.289 -0.272 -0.18 -0.631OBI -0.057 -0.065 -0.071 -0.193

TREND INDEXQ mQ max Q min

The trend analysis is made based on the calculation of the correlation coefficients, which are applied for evaluating the series trend. The correlation coefficients applied are: Pearson coefficient, which is parametric and measures the lineal correlation among variables, Spearman is non-parametric based on the range, and Kendall, also non-parametric based on the range and probability of the data occurrence order.

Trend analysisTrend analysis

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

01/01/60 31/12/69 01/01/80 31/12/89 01/01/00 01/01/10

An

nu

el d

isch

arg

e (m

3/s)

Annual Minimum

Annual Mean

Annual Maximum

Annual Discharge Data (Óbidos gauging station, Brazil)Annual Discharge Data (Óbidos gauging station, Brazil)

2006

2005

Mean (no trend)

Max

Min

Nine events with runoff higher than 250 000 m3/s occurred between 1970 and 2005, while four have been observed since the beginning of the century,

0

10000

20000

30000

400001

96

4

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

Dé

bit

Ta

ms

hiy

ac

u (

m3 s

-1)

0

1000

2000

3000

Plu

ie T

am

sh

iya

cu

(m

m)

0

10000

20000

30000

400001

96

4

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

Dé

bit

Ta

ms

hiy

ac

u (

m3 s

-1)

0

1000

2000

3000

Plu

ie T

am

sh

iya

cu

(m

m)

Annual Discharge Data (Tamshiyacu gauging station, Peru)Annual Discharge Data (Tamshiyacu gauging station, Peru)

-0.81% / year

Espinoza et al. (2006). Espinoza et al. (2006). IAHS Publ. IAHS Publ. 308, 424-429.308, 424-429.

Positive trend no significance90% Positive significance99% Positive significance99% Negative significance90% Negative significanceNegative trend no significanceno trend

TAMSAI

ACASER

CAR

MAN

G-L

PVE

FVA

ITA ALT

OBI

Mean annual discharge trendMean annual discharge trend

TAMSAI

ACASER

CAR

MAN

G-L

PVE

FVA

ITA ALT

OBI


Max annual discharge trendMax annual discharge trend

TAMSAI

ACASER

CAR

MAN

G-L

PVE

FVA

ITAALT

OBI


Min annual discharge trendMin annual discharge trend

One long observed time serie : Negro River at Manaus (1903 - today)One long observed time serie : Negro River at Manaus (1903 - today)

Due to backwater effects, Negro River water levelsare controlled by theAmazon river near the confluence, like allmajors tributaries of theAmazon basin.

Meade et al. (1991). Meade et al. (1991). Environ. Geol. Water Sci. Environ. Geol. Water Sci. 18(2), 105-114.18(2), 105-114.

y = 0.0393x1.8982

R2 = 0.923

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500

Manaus mean monthly water level

Man

acap

uru

mea

n m

on

thly

dis

char

ge

50 000

100 000

150 000

30/12/1901 08/09/1915 17/05/1929 24/01/1943 02/10/1956 11/06/1970 18/02/1984 27/10/1997

Dis

char

ge

(m3/

s)

1 000

2 000

3 000

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

Manacapuru discharge

Manaus water level

Richey et al. (1989). Richey et al. (1989). Science. Science. 246, 101-103.246, 101-103.-> No trend, links with ENSO events-> No trend, links with ENSO events

Milly et al. (2002). Milly et al. (2002). NatureNature, 415: 524-517., 415: 524-517.-> increasing floods-> increasing floods

One long reconstructed time serie : Amazon River at Óbidos (1903 - today)One long reconstructed time serie : Amazon River at Óbidos (1903 - today)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Mois (de 1928 à 1996)

Co

tes

(cm

)

dh = 83 cm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100

Cotes Manaus (cm)

Co

tes

Ób

ido

s (

cm)

Echelle ancienneEchelle actuelle

2 observed periods withoutnivel correction.The rating curve for the recent Period can not be used for thewhole period.-> be careful with publisheddischarge data (UNESCO)


Max, Mean and Min annual discharges : Amazon River at Óbidos (1903 - 1999)Max, Mean and Min annual discharges : Amazon River at Óbidos (1903 - 1999)

The breaks and changes in the series are evaluated through different methods, using Kronostat software: the Buishand method, of Bayesian nature, based on changes of the series average. The Pettitt method is a non-parametric test based on changes in the average and the range of the series. Lee and Heghinian test are also used, which is other Bayesian method that uses the average as an indicator of change. Finally, Hubert segmentation is applied based on the significant difference of the average and the standard deviation among periods; for the search of multiple changes in the series.

Breaks analysisBreaks analysis


30,0

35,0

40,0

45,0

50,0

55,0

60,0

65,0

1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Année

Co

effi

cien

t (

%)

Coef.Ecoulement

Tendance poynomiale

Moy.Mobile

Séparation des influences

A B

Callède et al. (submitted). Callède et al. (submitted).

Runoff coefficient : Amazon River at Óbidos (1903 - 2003)Runoff coefficient : Amazon River at Óbidos (1903 - 2003)

Using Wavelet analyses to detect changes

Conclusion

Main results for the 1902 – 1999 period at Obidos are : i) increasing trends for annual mean discharge and annual flood discharge, ii) no tendency for low flows, and iii) a significant break for the maximum and mean time series in 1969-1970.

Using the HYBAM dataset for the whole Amazon basin, a first study has been realized for 30 years (1975-2005). Mean annual rainfall over the Óbidos drainage basin presents a decreasing trend of 0.32%/year, while mean annual discharge is stable. This difference between rainfall estimation and discharge can be the consequence of:• rainfall under estimation, mainly in the equatorial region (north Peru, Colombia) were rainfall data is rare,• impact of the deforestation : with the same rainfall, there is more runoff, etc…• and/or change in the rainfall regime, with higher intensity, i.e. more runoff.For the same period (1975-2005), annual flood discharges are increasing, while annual low flows are decreasing, traducing an increasing amplitude of discharge at the Óbidos station.

The study of these tendencies in the different sub basins should allow us to understand better the impact of the climatic variability in the Amazon basin.

=> More data is required, => We have to help the Andean countries in this way

HYBAM Observatorywww.ore-hybam.org

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

01/01/95 31/12/96 01/01/99 31/12/00 01/01/03 31/12/04

Su

spen

ded

Sed

imen

t Y

ield

(t/

d)

From MODIS DataFrom Sampling Data

Suspended Sediment Yield : Amazon River at Óbidos (1995 - today)Suspended Sediment Yield : Amazon River at Óbidos (1995 - today)

Guyot et al. (in press). Guyot et al. (in press). IAHSIAHS

session 3: case studies low flows and floods – amazon basin jean loup guyot – ird lima –...

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