Session 2

Introduction to Hazards Risk Management

Session 2 Slide Deck

Slide 2-1

Session 2 2

Session Objectives2.1 Introduce the concept of risk, and explain how and why

individuals and societies continue to face exposure to a range of hazards

2.2 Explain how and why the nature of hazards is changing over time, and why an understanding of these changes is important to the management of risk

2.3 Use open class discussion to consider the definitions related to hazards risk management and reach agreement on specific definitions that will be used throughout the course.

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Risk• An unavoidable aspect of life

• As individuals, we are responsible for managing risk– Mandatory management– Elective management

• Societies face risk collectively– Large scale hazards– Managed as a society

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Risk versus Benefit• Risk exposure typically in pursuit of some

associated benefit

• Communities mitigate risk in order to be able to continue to receive the benefit without having to face adverse events– Reduce the chances an event will happen– Reduce the impacts from events

• Management has followed needs, wants, and capacities (though rarely meets demand)

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Disaster Still Happen

• The nature of communities is changing

• The nature of hazards is constantly changing

• Despite measures taken - disaster still happen

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Nature of Hazards

• Hazard risk management process is ongoing because of changes in the:– Severity of events– Geographic area affected– Number of people affected– Value of property affected– Frequency of events

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Trends• We try to understand:

– What kinds of changes are occurring– Why are they occurring

• Trends are indicators– Provide clues about risk– Tell us how risk is changing over time

• How often

• How damaging

• May be incremental or extreme

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Trend Forces

• Changes in How Often Disasters Occur (Disaster Frequency)– Increases in hazard occurrences– Increases in human activity

• Changes in What Happens as a Result of Disasters (Disaster Consequences)– Changes in hazard attributes– Changes in human activity

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Reasons for Change

• Population growth

• Land pressure

• Economic growth

• Technological innovation

• Social expectations

• Growing interdependencies and complexities of systems and society

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Recent Trends

• The number of people affected by disasters is rising.

• Overall, disasters are becoming less deadly.

• Overall, disasters are becoming more costly.

• The number of disasters is increasing each year.

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Common Lexicon

• Terminology a key building block of a profession– Allows communication– Minimizes confusion– Allows people to collaborate

• Many terms have multiple definitions outside the profession that differ

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2 Communication Theorems

• 50% of the problems in the world result from people using the same words with different meanings

• The other 50% comes from people using different words with the same meaning

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Lexicon in Emergency Management

• Professionals draw from a wide range of backgrounds

• Many terms are used in daily speech with different meaning– Risk– Disaster– Safe

• Risk managers must understand and be aware of all interpretations

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Hazard• Rooted in the concept of uncertainty/chance

• Any event, object, situation, or other condition that has the potential to cause or result in some negative impact inclusive of:– Fatalities, injuries, or psychological impacts

– Livelihood hardships (e.g., unemployment, decreased quality of life)

– Property damage

– Infrastructure damage

– Agricultural loss

– Damage to the environment

– Interruption of business

– Other types of harm or loss

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Hazards (Cont’d)• Defined according to a dangerous condition,

material, event, or other factor– River vs. Flood– Volcano vs. Volcanic Eruption

• Hazard is not a disaster, it causes a disaster– E.g., an earthquake is a hazard, not a disaster

• Hazards exist on personal/community levels– Emergency managers concerned with events that

cause community-wide or capacity exceeding impacts

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Risk

• Very common term, used in almost every profession with different connotations– May carry positive and/or negative implications

• Risk always negative in emergency management

• A measure of hazard severity or seriousness

• Risk = Likelihood X Consequence

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Hazard Likelihood

• The chance that a particular hazard will result in an actual event or situation

• Expressed as a probability or a frequency– Probability: tells one how likely it is an event

will occur at least once within a given time period

– Frequency: Tells how frequently an event will occur within a given time period

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Hazard Likelihood

• Measure of the effect that an event caused by the particular hazard would have on people, property, the environment, the economy, or aesthetics, other factors

• Directly related to the size or magnitude of the event – Cannot generalize consequences over a hazard,

rather we must consider different magnitudes

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Disaster• Emergency event of such great magnitude that one

or more response requirements cannot be met• UN definition: a serious disruption of the

functioning of society, causing widespread human, material, or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources

• Disaster is relative to response capacity, and grow in intensity as progressively larger response units are overwhelmed

• Disasters may be sudden-onset or creepingSession 2 Slide 2-19

Catastrophe• Hazard events exist on a severity continuum

• Community preparedness dictates disaster– Incident

– Emergency– Disaster– Catastrophe

• Catastrophe - a hazard event is of such great magnitude that its consequences overwhelm the response capacities of all administrative levels from local to Federal

• Only 1 ESF need be insufficientSession 2 Slide 2-20

Vulnerability

• Likelihood and consequence values of risk are dictated by:– What is at risk– How vulnerable it is

• Risk from equal events differs from place to place because of vulnerability

• Vulnerability factors: – Things that are done in the community– Attributes of the community itself

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Vulnerability (Cont’d)

• Vulnerability influences the risk equation

• Vulnerability is the propensity to incur loss

• Resilient is the opposite of vulnerable

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Safe• Goal of risk management is to reduce risk• Desire to reduce risk to ‘safe’ levels• Safety does not always mean risk is eliminated• Safe is the best of the available alternatives, not

best of the alternatives we would hope to have available

• Must measure benefits of risk existence with the loss of those benefits through mitigation

• Few communities have enough resources to reduce all of their hazards to acceptable levels

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Hazards Risk Management• An involved process that involves input

from many different stakeholders

• Requires more than simply knowing how to reduce one or more particular hazard types

• ‘Whole community’ understanding

• Many different processes, but the concepts are essentially the same in all risk management systems

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HRM Requirements

• Understand the community• Understand the different hazards• Understand vulnerability• Understand hazard likelihoods• Understand hazard consequences• Compare (and rank) risks• Determine mitigation options • Make a plan or strategy

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HRP Approach• Step 1 - Build Support, Form Partnerships, and Involve the

Public

• Step 2 - Establish a Context for Risk Management by Understanding the Community

• Step 3 - Identify Hazards

• Step 4 - Scope Vulnerability and Understand Capacity

• Step 5 - Analyze Risk

• Step 6 - Assess Risk

• Step 7 - Identify and Assess Risk Reduction Measures

• Step 8 - Select, Implement, and Support Risk Reduction Measures

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