session 2: china’s urbanization in historical and ... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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11.S945'Urbanizing'China''
Is#China#an#Outlier?#''
China’s#Urbanization#in#Historical#and#International#Contexts
Liyan Xu, Jinhua Zhao 9/9/2013
1
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Facts'of'World'Urbanization
This image is in the public domain.
Urbanization'rate:'percentage'of'population'living'in'urban#areas#(as#defined#by#the#country).'@Source:'hAp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Urbanized_population_2006.png 2
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Urbanization'History'by'Countries
Source:'various;'available'upon'request.
UK@
France@
Prussia/Germany@
US@
Russia/USSR@Japan@
S.Korea@
Brazil@
Colombia@
China@
India@
South'Africa@
Kenya@
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
1800@1810@1820@1830@1840@1850@1860@1870@1880@1890@1900@1910@1920@1930@1940@1950@1960@1970@1980@1990@2000@2010@
Urb
aniz
atio
n*R
ate/
*%
Year
World*Urbanization*by*Countries,*1800;2010
UK@ France@ Germany@ US@ Russia/USSR@ Japan@ S.Korea@
Brazil@ Colombia@ China@ India@ South'Africa@ Kenya@
3
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The'Urbanization'Curve
Courtesy of Elsevier, Inc., http://www.sciencedirect.com. Used with permission.
Source:'Mulligan,'G.'F.'(2013).'Revisiting'the'urbanization'curve.'Cities,'32(0),'113–122.'doi:hAp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2013.03.014@ 4
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Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Compendium#of#Statistics#1949F2008,'and'the'UN#World#Population#Perspective#2012.
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
0@
20000@
40000@
60000@
80000@
100000@
120000@
140000@
160000@
1949
@19
52@
1955
@19
58@
1961
@19
64@
1967
@19
70@
1973
@19
76@
1979
@19
82@
1985
@19
88@
1991
@19
94@
1997
@20
00@
2003
@20
06@
2009
@20
12@
2015
@20
18@
2021
@20
24@
2027
@20
30@
2033
@20
36@
2039
@20
42@
2045
@20
48@
Urb
aniz
atio
n*R
ate/
%
Popu
latio
n/10
*Tho
usan
ds
Year
China’s*Urbanization*1949;2050
Urban'Population@ Rural'Population@ Urbanization'Rate@
First'5cyear'Plan
The'“Great'Leap'Forward”
The'Culture'Revolution
Reform'and'Opencup
China'Entering'WTO
UN'Forecasting
5
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Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Compendium#of#Statistics#1949F2008.
0@
1000@
2000@
3000@
4000@
5000@
6000@
7000@
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
Per*c
apita
*GD
P/20
10*U
SD
Urb
aniz
atio
n*R
ate/
%
Year
China’s*Urbanization*and*Economic*Development*1952;2012
Per'capita'GDP@ Urbanization'Rate@
6
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Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Statistics#Yearbook'2012,'2006,'1990.
0.0'@
5.0'@
10.0'@
15.0'@
20.0'@
25.0'@
30.0'@
35.0'@
40.0'@
45.0'@
50.0'@
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
1952
@
1954
@
1956
@
1958
@
1960
@
1962
@
1964
@
1966
@
1968
@
1970
@
1972
@
1974
@
1976
@
1978
@
1980
@
1982
@
1984
@
1986
@
1988
@
1990
@
1992
@
1994
@
1996
@
1998
@
2000
@
2002
@
2004
@
2006
@
2008
@
2010
@
2012
@
Per*c
apita
*hou
sing
*are
a/m
2
Urb
aniz
atio
n*R
ate
Year
China’s*Urbanization*and*Housing*Improvement,*1952;2012
Urban'per'capita'housing'area@ Rural'per'capita'housing'area@ Urbanization'Rate@
7
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Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China#Statistics#Yearbook'2012,'1996.
0@
0.5@
1@
1.5@
2@
2.5@
3@
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
1952@1954@1956@1958@1960@1962@1964@1966@1968@1970@1972@1974@1976@1978@1980@1982@1984@1986@1988@1990@1992@1994@1996@1998@2000@2002@2004@2006@2008@2010@2012@
Tota
l*Ene
rgy*
Con
sum
ptio
nto
ns*o
f*Sta
ndar
d*C
oal
Urb
aniz
atio
n*R
ate
%
Year
ChinaPs*Urbanization*and*Per*capita*Energy*Consumption,*1952;2012
Per'capita'Energy'Consumption@ Urbanization'Rate@
8
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Facts'of'China’s'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China’s'5th'and'6th'National'Census'data.
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
0@ 200@ 400@ 600@ 800@ 1000@ 1200@ 1400@ 1600@ 1800@ 2000@
Gro
wth
*Rat
e/%
Rank
Population*Growth*of*Chinese*Cities*of*Different*Sizes,*2000;2010T
Larger'cities'grew'faster
9
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China’s'Urbanization:''What’s'So'Special?
Speed Economic Outcomes Resource/Environment Costs
10
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Speed'of'Urbanization
Rapid urbanization: far from “unprecedented” o Historical counterpart: Lowell, MA o Contemporary counterpart: Dubai o Country-level counterparts:
USSR, Japan, South Korea Latin America
11
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Urbanization'History'by'Countries
Source:'various;'available'upon'request.
UK@
France@
Prussia/Germany@
US@
Russia/USSR@Japan@
S.Korea@
Brazil@
Colombia@
China@
India@
South'Africa@
Kenya@
0@
10@
20@
30@
40@
50@
60@
70@
80@
90@
100@
1800@1810@1820@1830@1840@1850@1860@1870@1880@1890@1900@1910@1920@1930@1940@1950@1960@1970@1980@1990@2000@2010@
Urb
aniz
atio
n*R
ate/
*%
Year
World*Urbanization*by*Countries,*1800;2010
UK@ France@ Germany@ US@ Russia/USSR@ Japan@ S.Korea@
Brazil@ Colombia@ China@ India@ South'Africa@ Kenya@
12
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Shanghai@@1990c2010
13© sources unknown. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our CreativeCommons license. For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
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Lowell,'MA@@1821c1845
These maps are in the public domain.14
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Dubai@@c.1990c2010
Top image © source unknown. Bottom image © Hatim Saleh, ChopperShoot.com. All rights reserved. This contentis excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/. 15
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Urbanization'and'Economic'Development@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
Argentina@
Australia@
Brazil@
China
China,'Taiwan@
Cuba@
Dem.'Peopleks'Republic'of'Korea@
Democratic'Republic'of'the'Congo@
Egypt@
Equatorial'Guinea@ France@
Gabon@
Germany@Greece@
India@
Iran'(Islamic'Republic'of)@
Iraq@
Italy@ Japan@
Jordan@
Kenya@
Libya@Malaysia@
Mongolia@
Ghana@
Philippines@
Qatar@
Republic'of'Korea@
Russian'Federation@
Somalia@
South'Africa@
Sri'Lanka@ Syrian'Arab'Republic@
Thailand@Ukraine@
United'Kingdom@United'States'of'America@
Viet'Nam@
R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(P
PP*p
er*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World,*2010T
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ Annotations@ Linear'Lg'(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
16
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Healthy'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
Australia@Austria@ Belgium@Canada@
Chile@
Czech'Republic@
Denmark@
Estonia@
Finland@France@Germany@Greece@
Hungary@
Ireland@
Israel@Italy@ Japan@
Mexico@
Netherlands@
New'Zealand@
Norway@
Poland@Portugal@ Republic'of'Korea@
Slovakia@Slovenia@
Spain@Sweden@
Swirerland@
Turkey@
United'Kingdom@United'States'of'America@
R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(P
PP*p
er*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*OECD*Members,*2010T
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ OECD'Countries@ Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
17
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Healthy'Urbanization
Australia@Austria@ Belgium@Canada@
Chile@
Czech'Republic@
Denmark@
Estonia@
Finland@France@Germany@
Greece@
Hungary@
Ireland@
Israel@Italy@
Japan@
Mexico@
Netherlands@New'Zealand@
Norway@
Poland@
Portugal@ Republic'of'Korea@Slovakia@
Slovenia@Spain@
Sweden@Swirerland@
Turkey@
United'Kingdom@United'States'of'America@
Australia)
Austria)
Belgium)
Canada)
Chile)
Denmark)Finland)
France)
Greece)Ireland)
Israel)
Italy)
Japan)
Mexico)
Netherlands)
New@Zealand)
Norway)
Portugal)
Republic@of@Korea)
Spain)
Sweden)SwiHerland)
Turkey)
United@Kingdom)
United@States@of@America)
R²'='0.66121@2@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(G
DP*
per*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*OECD*Countries,*1960*;*2010T
PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@ OECD'Countries'2010@ OECD'Countries'1960@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012. 18
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Healthy'Urbanization
Photographs of suburb and suburban neighborhoodremoved due to copyright restrictions.
Photograph courtesy of global_jet on Flickr. Under CC-BY.
ManhaAan;'Suburb'(Harry'PoAer’s'aunt’s'house'in'suburban'London) 19
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Overcurbanization/Pseudo'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
Argentina@
Bolivia'(Plurinational'State'of)@
Brazil@
Chile@
Colombia@Costa'Rica@
Ecuador@El'Salvador@
Guatemala@Honduras@
Mexico@
Nicaragua@
Panama@
Paraguay@
Peru@
Uruguay@Venezuela'(Bolivarian'Republic'of)@
R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(P
PP*p
er*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*Continental*Latin*America,*2010T
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ Continental'Latin'America@ Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
20
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Overcurbanization/Pseudo'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012.
Argentina@
Bolivia'(Plurinational'State'of)@
Brazil@Chile@
Colombia@Costa'Rica@
Ecuador@El'Salvador@
Guatemala@Honduras@
Mexico@
Nicaragua@
Panama@
Paraguay@
Peru@
Uruguay@Venezuela'(Bolivarian'
Republic'of)@
Argentina)
Bolivia@(Plurinational@State@of))
Brazil)
Chile)
Colombia)
Costa@Rica)
Ecuador)El@Salvador)Guatemala)
Honduras)
Mexico)
Nicaragua)
Panama)Peru)
Uruguay)
Venezuela@(Bolivarian@Republic@of))
R²'='0.66121@
2@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(G
DP*
per*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*Continental*Latin*America,*1960*;*2010T
PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@ Continental'Latin'America'2010@
Continental'Latin'America'1960@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
21
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Overcurbanization/Pseudo'urbanization
Photograph courtesy of dany13 on Flickr. Under CC-BY. Photograph courtesy of dany13 on Flickr. Under CC-BY.
Rio:'skyscrapers'and'favelas'(screenshot'from'Fast#and#Furious#5#and'Rio,#the#2011#carton#movie#featuring#two#blue#macaws) 22
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Undercurbanization
Albania@
Armenia@
Azerbaijan@
Belarus@
Bosnia'and'Herzegovina@
Bulgaria@Croatia@
Czech'Republic@Estonia@
Georgia@
Hungary@
Kazakhstan@
Kyrgyzstan@
Latvia@Lithuania@
Mongolia@
Montenegro@
Poland@
Republic'of'Moldova@
Romania@
Russian'Federation@
Serbia@
Slovakia@Slovenia@
Tajikistan@
TFYR'Macedonia@
Turkmenistan@Ukraine@
Uzbekistan@
R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(P
PP*p
er*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*Post;Soviet/Socialist*Countries,*2010T
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ PostcSoviet/Socialist'Countries@ Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012. 23
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Undercurbanization
Photograph of Soviet baku removed due to copyright restrictions.
Soviet'Baku 24
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Overcurbanization'and'Economic'Stagnation
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
Angola@
Benin@
Botswana@
Burkina'Faso@
Burundi@
Cameroon@
Central'African'Republic@
Chad@
Congo@
Côte'dkIvoire@
Democratic'Republic'of'the'Congo@
Equatorial'Guinea@
Ethiopia@
Gabon@
Gambia@Ghana@
Guinea@
Kenya@Lesotho@
Liberia@
Madagascar@Malawi@Mali@
Mauritania@
Mozambique@
Namibia@
Niger@
Nigeria@
Rwanda@
Senegal@
Sierra'Leone@
Somalia@
South'Africa@
Swaziland@
Togo@Uganda@ United'Republic'of'Tanzania@Zambia@
Zimbabwe@ R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(P
PP*p
er*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*Sub;Saharan*Africa,*2010T
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ SubcSaharan'Africa@ Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
25
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Overcurbanization'and'Economic'Stagnation
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012.
Angola@
Benin@
Botswana@
Burkina'Faso@
Burundi@
Cameroon@
Central'African'Republic@
Chad@
Congo@
Côte'dkIvoire@
Democratic'Republic'of'the'Congo@
Equatorial'Guinea@
Ethiopia@
Gabon@
Gambia@
Ghana@
Guinea@
Kenya@Lesotho@
Liberia@Madagascar@
Malawi@
Mali@
Mauritania@
Mozambique@
Namibia@
Niger@
Nigeria@
Rwanda@
Senegal@
Sierra'Leone@
Somalia@
South'Africa@
Swaziland@
Togo@Uganda@ United'Republic'of'Tanzania@
Zambia@
Zimbabwe@Benin)
Botswana)Burkina@Faso)Burundi)
Cameroon)
Central@African@Republic)
Chad)Congo)
Côte@dSIvoire)Democratic@Republic@of@the@
Congo)Gabon)
Ghana)
Kenya)
Lesotho)
Liberia)Madagascar)
Malawi)
Mauritania)Niger)
Nigeria)
Rwanda)
Senegal)
Somalia)
South@Africa)
Swaziland)Togo)
Uganda)
Zambia)Zimbabwe)
R²'='0.66121@
2@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(G
DP*
per*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*Sub;Saharan*Africa,*1960*;*2010T
PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@ SubcSaharan'Africa'2010@ SubcSaharan'Africa'1960@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
26
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Overcurbanization'at'a'Low'Development'Level
Kibera,'Nairobi‘s'largest'slum
Map data ©2009 Google, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye. All rights reserved. This Photograph courtesy of dany13 on Flickr. Under CC-BY.content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For moreinformation, see http://ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/.
27
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Countries'with'Dutch'Diseases
Algeria@
Angola@Ecuador@
Equatorial'Guinea@
Gabon@Iran'(Islamic'Republic'of)@
Iraq@
Kuwait@
Libya@
Nigeria@
Oman@
Qatar@
Saudi'Arabia@
United'Arab'Emirates@
Venezuela'(Bolivarian'Republic'of)@
R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(P
PP*p
er*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World*+*OPEC*and*Other*Major*Oil*Exporters,*2010T
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ OPEC'and'Other'Major'Oil'Exporters@ Linear'Lg(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012. 28
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Countries'with'Dutch'Diseases
World map displaying cost of living removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source:'hAp://www.numbeo.com/costcofcliving/@ 29
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Countries'with'Dutch'Diseases
Article text removed due to copyright restrictions.
Source: Jones, Barbara. "Hamburgers cost £32 and a one-bed flats go for £7,500 amonth... this boy lives in the most expensive city in the world (sadly for him, he's onthe wrong side of the tracks)." DailyMail, Aug. 04, 2012.
Source:'hAp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articlec2183616/LuandacTheccapitalcAngolacexpensiveccitycworld.html@ 30
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Country'Trajectories
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
China, Taiwan
Cuba
Dem. People's Republic of Korea
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
France
Gabon
Germany
Greece
India
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Iraq
Italy Japan
Jordan
Kenya
Libya
Malaysia
Mongolia
Ghana
Philippines
Qatar
Republic of Korea
Russian Federation
Somalia
South Africa
Sri Lanka Syrian Arab Republic
Thailand
Ukraine
United Kingdom United States of America
Viet Nam 1800@1810@1820@1830@1840@
1850@1860@ 1870@
1880@1890@ 1900@ 1910@ 1920@ 1930@
1940@
1950@1960@
1970@1980@
1990@2000@2010@
R²'='0.66121@
2@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(G
DP*
per*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*World,*2010*with*Urbanization*Trajectories*of*Various*CountriesT
Annotations@ Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)@ UK'1830c2010@ USA'1800c2010@
Japan'1920c2010@ South'Korea'1960c2010@ China,'Taiwan'1952c2012@ Brazil'1960c2010@
India'1950c2010@ Ghana'1960c2010@ Dem.Rep.Congo'1960c2010@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
31
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Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.
Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina, Chapter 1
Deriving'a'Model…
32
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China:'the'Middle'Kingdom
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
China
China, Taiwan
Cuba
Dem. People's Republic of Korea
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
France
Gabon
Germany
Greece
India
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Iraq
Italy Japan
Jordan
Kenya
Libya
Malaysia
Mongolia
Ghana
Philippines
Qatar
Republic of Korea
Russian Federation
Somalia
South Africa
Sri Lanka Syrian Arab Republic
Thailand
Ukraine
United Kingdom United States of America
Viet Nam 1800@1810@1820@1830@1840@
1850@1860@ 1870@
1880@1890@ 1900@ 1910@ 1920@ 1930@
1940@
1950@1960@
1970@1980@
1990@2000@2010@
R²'='0.66121@2@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(G
DP*
per*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*World,*2010*with*Urbanization*Trajectories*of*Various*CountriesT
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)@ Annotations@ USA'1800c2010@ UK'1830c2010@Japan'1920c2010@ India'1950c2010@ Brazil'1960c2010@ South'Korea'1960c2010@China,'Taiwan'1952c2012@ Ghana'1960c2010@ Dem.Rep.Congo'1960c2010@ China'1952c2012@Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
33
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Resource/Environment'Costs?
34
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Land'Resources'Consumption
0@
100@
200@
300@
400@
500@
600@
700@
800@
900@
1000@
Per*c
apita
*urb
an*la
nd*u
se/m
2Per*capita*urban*land*use*2010T
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'data'from'hAp://www.demographia.com/' 35
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Land'Resources'Consumption
Australia@
Brazil@
Canada@
China
Danmark@
Egypt@
Frace@
Germany@
India@
Italy@
Japan@
Mexico@
Netherlands@
Philippines@
Poland@ Russia@
S.Korea@
Spain@UK@
US@y'='8.2016x'c'256.29@
R²'='0.28754@
c200@
0@
200@
400@
600@
800@
1000@
30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Per*c
apita
*urb
an*la
nd*u
se/m
2T
Urbanization*Rate/%*
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Per*capita*urban*land*use*2010T
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'data'from'hAp://www.demographia.com/,'and'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012. 36
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Land'Resources'Consumption
Australia@
Brazil@
Canada@
China
Danmark@
Egypt@
Frace@
Germany@
India@
Italy@
Japan@
Mexico@
Netherlands@
Philippines@
Poland@Russia@
S.Korea@
Spain@UK@
US@y'='340.47x'c'1106.8@R²'='0.44924@
c200@
0@
200@
400@
600@
800@
1000@
3@ 3.2@ 3.4@ 3.6@ 3.8@ 4@ 4.2@ 4.4@ 4.6@ 4.8@ 5@
Per*c
apita
*urb
an*la
nd*u
se/m
2
Per*capita*GDP/2010*USD
Per*capita*GDP*vs.*Per*capita*urban*land*use*2010T
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'data'from'hAp://www.demographia.com/,'and'the'World'Bank'GDP'per'capita'data'2012. 37
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Energy Use Per Capita
ui
vale
ntK
g of
Oil
Eq
China
United States
Energy'Consumption
Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for' IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request. 38
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Energy*Intensity*;*Total*Primary*Energy*Consumption*per*Dollar*of*GDP*T
(Btu*per*Year*2005*U.S.*Dollars*(Market*Exchange*Rates))T90000@
80000@
ear*2
005*
U.S
.*Dol
lars
T 70000@
60000@
50000@
40000@
BTU
*per
*Y
30000@
20000@
10000@
0@
1980
@19
81@
1982
@19
83@
1984
@19
85@
1986
@19
87@
1988
@19
89@
1990
@19
91@
1992
@19
93@
1994
@19
95@
1996
@19
97@
1998
@19
99@
2000
@20
01@
2002
@20
03@
2004
@20
05@
2006
@20
07@
2008
@20
09@
2010
@20
11@
United'States@
China@
Energy'Consumption
Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for' IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request. 39
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Energy'Consumption
Germany Singapore
India
Japan
Russia
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
R² = 0.1378
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Ene
rgy
Inte
nsity
(kg
oil
equi
vale
nt p
er 1
,000
US
D)
Urbanization Rate (Urban Population / Total Population)
Urbanization Rate and Energy Intensity
Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for' IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request. 40
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Energy'Consumption
Germany
India
Japan
Russia
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
R² = 0.17351
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Ene
rgy
Inte
nsity
(kg
oil
equi
vale
nt p
er 1
,000
US
D)
Per Capita GDP (2000 constant USD)
Per Capita GDP and Energy Intensity
Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for' IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request. 41
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Energy Intensity
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n P
er C
apita
Year
US Energy Intensity vs. Energy Consumption Per Capita
Energy Per Capita Energy Intensity
China,'2011@
China,'2011@
Energy'Consumption
Source:'According'to'Gao,'Spicer,'Hess.'2013.'Report'for' IT'11.481.'Available'upon'request. 42
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Pollution
Photograph of person surrounded by smog removed due to copyright restrictions.
Beijing,'2013.'Source:' http://gbtimes.com/life/china-gets-tough-air-pollution 43
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Pollution
Photograph of person surrounded by smog removed due to copyright restrictions.
London,' 952.'Source:'hAp://blog.ifeng.com/article/22421665.html 44
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China’s'Urbanization:'What’s'So'Special?
Then, what’s so special about China?
Is China really an outlier?
45
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Concluding'Remarks
China is unique o Normative vs. Positive Standards
Why? o Scale matters o Internal complexities are unprecedented
46
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Normative'vs.'Positive'Standards
To be good doesn’t necessarily mean to be normal
o Despite the “norm” given by the fitting line (in terms of the relationship between urbanization and economic development), most countries have failed to adhere to the norm.
o China is among the few developing countries economies where urbanization is relatively healthy.
o Even among these few countries/economies China is probably the one with the worst beginning conditions, which makes China’s achievements even more valuable.
47
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Winners
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'on'China#Compendium#of#Statistics#1949F2008,
1952@
1962@ 1972@
1982@
1992@2002@
2012@
1960@1970@
1980@
1990@
2000@
2010@
1952@
1960@1978@
1990@
2000@
2005@
2012@
R²'='0.66121@2@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(G
DP*
per*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*World,*1960*;*2010;*China,*1952;2012T
PPP'per'Capita_2010_CD_WB@ Annotations'2010@ World'2010@World'1960@ China'1952c2012@ China,'Taiwan'[email protected]@ China'Annotation@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
48
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Scale'MaAers
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012.
Argentina@
Australia@
Brazil@
China
China,'Taiwan@
Cuba@
Dem.'Peopleks'Republic'of'Korea@
Democratic'Republic'of'the'Congo@
Egypt@
Equatorial'Guinea@ France@
Gabon@
Germany@Greece@
India@
Iran'(Islamic'Republic'of)@
Iraq@
Italy@ Japan@
Jordan@
Kenya@
Libya@Malaysia@
Mongolia@
Ghana@
Philippines@
Qatar@
Republic'of'Korea@
Russian'Federation@
Somalia@
South'Africa@
Sri'Lanka@ Syrian'Arab'Republic@
Thailand@Ukraine@
United'Kingdom@United'States'of'America@
Viet'Nam@
R²'='0.65291@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(P
PP*p
er*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(PPP*per*Capita),*World,*2010T
Lg(PPPpc_2010_WB)@ Annotations@ Linear'Lg'(pcPPP)~Urbanization'Rate@
49
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Scale'MaAers
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012. 50
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Scale'MaAers
Fast speed and fair economy outcomes may not be unique, but these achievements become valuable when considering the huge scale of the country.
Why scale matters? o Huge scale may change the basic settings of the stage. o Partial equilibrium -> general equilibrium
o Absolute amount usually matters when it comes to public goods, or public “bads”, negative externalities such as air pollution or GHG emission
51
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Internal'Complexities
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012. 52
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Urbanization'Rate'at'the'Province'Level
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China’s'6th'National'Census'data 53
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Urbanization'Rate'at'the'Prefecture'Level
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'China’s'6th'National'Census'data 54
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Argentina)Brazil)
China@
China,@Taiwan)
Dem.@PeopleSs@Republic@of@Korea)
Equatorial@Guinea)Greece)
India)
Japan)
Jordan)
Kenya)
Mongolia)Philippines)
Qatar)
Republic@of@Korea)
Russian@Federation)
Somalia)
Sri@Lanka)
Thailand)
Ukraine)
United@States@of@America)
1952@
1960@1978@
1990@
2000@
2005@
2012@
Beijing@
Tianjin@
Hebei@
Liaoning@
Shanghai@
Jiangsu@Zhejiang@Fujian@Shandong@ Guangdong@Shanxi@
Jilin@
Heilongjiang@
Anhui@
Jiangxi@Henan@Hubei@Hunan@
Inner'Mongolia@
Guangxi@
Chongqing@
Sichuan@Guizhou@Yunnan@
Shaanxi@
Gansu@Qinghai@
Ningxia@
Xingjiang@
''Beijing@
''Fujian@ ''Guangdong@
''Hainan@''Hebei@
''Jiangsu@''Liaoning@''Shandong@
''Shanghai@''Tianjin@''Zhejiang@
''Anhui@''Henan@ ''Heilongjiang@''Hubei@''Hunan@
''Jilin@
''Jiangxi@''Shanxi@
''Gansu@''Guangxi@
''Guizhou@
''Inner'Mongolia@
''Ningxia@''Qinghai@''Shaanxi@''Sichuan@
''Tibet@
''Xinjiang@
''Yunnan@
''Chongqing@
R²'='0.66121@
2@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(G
DP*
per*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*China*Provinces*1952;2012;*Background:*World,*2010T
World'2010@ Annotations@ China'1952c2012@ China'Annotations@China'East'1952@ China'Middle'1952@ China'West'1952@ China'East'2010@China'Middle'2010@ China'West'2010@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
Unbalanced'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'China’s'6th'National'Census'data 55
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Unbalanced'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'China’s'6th'National'Census'data
Argentina)Brazil)
China@
China,@Taiwan)
Dem.@PeopleSs@Republic@of@Korea)
Equatorial@Guinea)Greece)
India)
Japan)
Jordan)
Kenya)
Mongolia)Philippines)
Qatar)
Republic@of@Korea)
Russian@Federation)
Somalia)
Sri@Lanka)
Thailand)
Ukraine)
United@States@of@America)
1952@
1960@1978@
1990@
2000@
2005@
2012@
R²'='0.66121@
2@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(G
DP*
per*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*China*1952;2012,*with*China*Prefectures*2010;*Background:*World,*2010T
World'2010@ Annotations@ China'1952c2012@ China'Annotations@
China'East'Prefectures'2010@ China'Middle'Prefectures'2010@ China'West'Prefectures'2010@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
56
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Unbalanced'Urbanization
Source:'Own'calculation'based'on'the'UN'World#Urbanization#Perspective#2012,'World'Bank'PPP'per'capita'data'2012,'and'China’s'6th'National'Census'data
Argentina)Brazil)
China@
China,@Taiwan)
Dem.@PeopleSs@Republic@of@Korea)
Equatorial@Guinea)Greece)
India)
Japan)
Jordan)
Kenya)
Mongolia)Philippines)
Qatar)
Republic@of@Korea)
Russian@Federation)
Somalia)
Sri@Lanka)
Thailand)
Ukraine)
United@States@of@America)
1952@
1960@1978@
1990@
2000@
2005@
2012@
Guangdong'1952
Guangdong'2012
Guangzhou@
Shaoguan@
Shenzhen@Zhuhai@
Shantou@
Foshan@
Jiangmen@
Zhanjiang@Maoming@Zhaoqing@
Huizhou@
Meizhou@ Shanwei@Heyuan@
Yangjiang@Qingyuan@
Dongguan@Zhongshan@
Chaozhou@Jieyang@Yunfu@
R²'='0.66121@
2@
2.5@
3@
3.5@
4@
4.5@
5@
0@ 10@ 20@ 30@ 40@ 50@ 60@ 70@ 80@ 90@ 100@
Lg(G
DP*
per*C
apita
)20
10*D
olla
rs*($
)
Urbanization*Rate/%
Urbanization*Rate*vs.*Lg(GDP*per*Capita),*China*Provinces*1952;2012;*with*Guangdong*Prefectures*2010;*Background:*World,*2010T
World'2010@ Annotations@ China'1952c2012@ China'Annotations@Guangdong'1952@ Guangdong'2012@ Guangdong'Prefectures'2010@ Linear'Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization'Rate@
57
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Despite similar urbanization level, rural Vermont(right) is different from rural Guizhou(left).
In the developed countries, the countryside and the city imply different styles of life; however in developing countries, they mean different qualities of life.
The two differ in terms of infrastructure accessibility, consumption level, educational quality, or even life expectancy.
Unbalanced'Urbanization
Photograph courtesy of kenner116 and sterlingcollege on Flickr. Under CC-BY.
58
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Therefor, China’s urbanization (and the developing world’s in general) can be viewed as a process of “voting with feet”.
Putting another way, the developed world is in a state of urban-rural equilibrium, but the developing world isn’t.
In China, the mobility is further facilitated by characteristics of regional economy (rather than international economy, as seen in the Europe): perfect factor mobility, same currency, etc.
Challenges: natural tendency toward over-urbanization (Harris and Todaro. 1970)
Corrective policy tools: Hukou?
Unbalanced'Urbanization
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Thank'you!
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11.S945 Urbanizing China: A Reflective DialogueFall 2013
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