session 18 the future an other. session 18 the future how market pressure (bottom-up) and gats/wto...
TRANSCRIPT
Session 18
The Future
AN Other
Session 18The Future
How market pressure (bottom-up) and GATS/WTO agreements (top-down) will influence the postal sector:
• Threats and Opportunities
• Market and Regulatory Impact
• WTO – Impact on Regulation
Session Objectives & Topics
Threats and Opportunities
Session 18The Future
Competitors
local couriers, DHL, FedEx TNT, UPS
banks, Moneygram, Western Union
local government, schools,health services
shops, kiosks, news agents
Internet service providers,cyber cafés
schools, community centers, religious centers
transportation companies, freight forwarders
internal distribution
Products
parcels, packages, express mail
savings, payments, loans,money orders, lottery
licenses, taxation, pensions, benefits, information
phones, phone cards, newspapers, stationary, etc.
hybrid mail, Internet, SMS, e-certification
access to people
warehousing, picking, packaging, distribution
letters, registered, philatelic
Service
Parcels/Express
Financial
Government
Retail
Electronic
Rural access
Logistics
Television, media, newspapersDirect marketing, document management, door to doorValue-added Mail
Market and Regulatory Impact
Session 18The Future
Market TrendsDevelopment Impact on Regulator
Improved Service
Demand
Investment, better managementImproved servicesBetter networks
Re –define service standards
More difficult to monitorHigher risk of abuse
Risk to USO
Liberalisation
Diversification
More competitorsMore demanding consumers
Pressure on USO
Maintaining USOContracts between competitors
Balancing market
Cross sector issuesCooperation essential
Foreign Investment
Lack of resourceRegional demands
Direct mailIncreased email – e-business
Economies of scale and scopeIncreased retail products
Network synergies (logistics)
More demanding consumersIncreased volumesInternational trade
Session 18The Future
Diversification in PracticeProduct
Express
Retail
Logistics
Financial Services
e-business
TOTAL
Consultancy etc
Deutsche Post
20
4
1
7
1
34
1
TPG
13
18
16
1
49
1
La Poste France
9
7
2
2
2
27
5
Posten Sweden
5
1
2
9
1
Canada Post
1
2
6
3
WTO: Impact on Regulation
Session 18The Future
• World Trade Organisation – promotes free trade• General Agreement on Trade in Services
– Multilateral rules covering international trade
– Country makes commitment to provide access to their markets
– Covers all internationally traded services except:• Services provided in the exercise of Government
authority• Air transport
WTO Agreements
Session 18The Future
GATS and Postal Services
• Dispute about the extent to which postal services are covered by GATS
• Are universal service obligations outside GATS?
• EU position is that all postal services are covered by GATS
Session 18The Future
Implications
• Postal services could be negotiated as part of a wider package
• Competition and forced liberalisation
• Terminal dues agreements?
• Countries need to gear up to change now
• Postal operators and policy makers must ensure their interests are accounted for
Session 18The Future
GATS – Implications for the Regulator
• Needs to carefully monitor negotiations
• Advice to Government on desirable limitations
• Continued improvement in procedures and management processes to withstand challenges to decisions on the basis of unfair treatment
Session 18The Future
Conclusion
• Wider changes will create opportunities for postal services– Overall economic development
– Increased employment
– Increased direct mail
– Increased e-business
– More foreign investment and innovation
Session 18The Future
Group Exercise
• What do you think are the long term implications for the postal service?
• What impact will that have on – Universal service?
– Competition?
– Post Offices?
– Postal Regulators?