serbian capital market regional conference economic crisis and responses of capital market...
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Serbian capital market Regional Conference
Economic Crisis and Responses of Capital Market Regulators
Belgrade, December 3, 2009
REPUBLIC OF SERBIA - SECURITIES COMMISSION
Milko ŠtimacChairman of the Securities Commission of the Republic of Serbia
2
Serbian capital market List of Participants
ParticipantsTotal number (September 30th)
2008 2009 index
Broker - Dealer Companies 85 61 71,8
Authorised Banks 19 21 110,5
Custody Banks 12 13 108,3
Management Companies (MF) 16 11 68,8
-mutual funds (MF) 17 16 94,1
Management Companies (PF) 9 9 100,0
-pension funds (PF) 8 10 125,0
Brokers 1.038 1.085 104,5
Portfolio Managers 75 109 145,3
Investment Advisers 19 32 168,4
Stock Exchange 1 1 100,0
-members of Stock Exchange 92 79 85,9
Central Securities Depository and Clearing House 1 1 100,0
-members of Central Securities Depository and Clearing House 105 95 90,5
List of active securities 2.506 2.470 98,6
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
3
January - September 2008 and 2009
2008Number of transactions Turnover
numberstructure
%index
(2008/07)billion€UR
structure%
index(2008/07)
1 BELEX 92.335 65,4% 38,3 0,8 1,2% 48,0
2 OTC(!) 48.929 34,6% 86,7 65,1 98,8% 158,1
TOTAL 141,264 100,0% 47,4 65,9 100,0% 153,0
2009 number Structure % index(2009/08)
billion€UR
structure%index
(2009/08)
1 BELEX 59.095 71,2% 60,8 0,2 0,8% 25,6
2 OTC(!) 22.744 28,8% 46,5 23,6 99,2% 36,2
TOTAL 78.839 100,0% 55,8 23,8 100,0% 36,1
Serbian Capital MarketNumber of transactions and turnover TOTAL = BELEX + OTC(!) 2008 - 2009
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
Serbian Capital MarketNumber of transactions and turnover TOTAL = BELEX + OTC(!) 2005 – 2009
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 4
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
20092008
20072006
2005
56,095
22,744
92,335
48,929
240,955
55,702
104,444
87,711
127,294
104,116
Number of transactionsJanuary - September
0
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
20092008
20072006
2005196,673,680.623,586,558,482.7769,352,152.4
65,122,310,064.0
1,604,086,448.133,186,010,403.8714,649,584.2
5,900,641,826.7
394,471,208.1
1,090,674,963.9
Turnover (€)January - September
5
Serbian Capital MarketNumber of transactions by securitiesTOTAL = BELEX + OTC(!) 2008 - 2009
Securities2008 2009
numberof
transactions
structure%
index numberof
transactions
structure%
index
(2008/07) (2009/08)
Shares 105.868 74,9% 44,6 54.263 68,8% 51,3
Bonds (Republic of Serbia, Series A - Foreign Currency Savings Bonds)
32.722 23,2% 57,1 22.260 28,2% 68,0
Treasury Bills (Republic of Serbia) and Bank Commercial Notes (NBS, REPO transactions)
2.674 1,4% 95,8 2.316 2,6% 86,6
TOTAL 141.264 100,0% 47,4 78.839 100,0% 55,8
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
January - September
6
Serbian Capital MarketTurnover by securitiesTOTAL = BELEX + OTC(!) 2008 - 2009
Securities
2008 2009
turnoverbillion €UR
structure%
index turnover
billion €URstructure
%
index
(2008/07) (2009/08)
Shares 0,9 1,3% 56,0 0,3 1,2% 32,5
Bonds (Republic of Serbia, Series A - Foreign Currency Savings Bonds)
0,2 0,3% 36,9 0,3 1,2% 139,1
Treasury Bills (Republic of Serbia) and Bank Commercial Notes (NBS, REPO transactions)
64,8 98,4% 95,8 23,2 97,6% 35,8
TOTAL 65,9 100,0% 153,0 23,8 100,0% 36,1
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
January - September
7
Serbian Capital MarketNumber of transactions and turnover by securities (structure)TOTAL = BELEX + OTC(!) 2008 - 2009
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
Shares75.3%
Bonds of RS (A)23.3%
Treasury Bills of RS
0.0%
Bank Comm. Not. NBS(repo)
1.4%
Transactions (structure)January - September 2008
Shares1.6%
Bonds of RS (A)0.4%
Treasury Bills of RS
0.2%
Bank Comm. Not. NBS(repo)
97.8%
Turnover (€)January - September 2008
Shares68.8%
Bonds of RS (A)28.2%
Treasury Bills of RS1.2%
Bank Comm.Not.NBS(
repo)1.7%
Transactions (structure)January - September 2009
Shares1.2%
Bonds of RS (A)1.1%
Treasury Bills of RS
6.2%
Bank Comm.Not.NBS(
repo)91.5%
Turnover (€) (structure)January - September 2009
8
Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeNumber of transactions and turnover by securities 2007 - 2009
January - September
BELEX Number of transaction Turnover
2008number
index(2008/2007)
million €URindex
(2008/2007)
92.335 38,3 762,6 48,0
2009number
index(2009/2008)
million €URindex
(2009/2009)
56.095 60,75 196,7 25,6
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
January - December
BELEX Number of transactions Turnover
2007number
index(2007/2006)
million €URindex
(2007/2006)
302.016 221,9 2.012,2 102,5
2008number
index(2008/2007)
million €URindex
(2008/2007)
119.001 39,5 905,4 44,2
Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeNumber of transactions and turnover by securities 2009
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 9
Shares
Bonds of RS (A)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
20092008
20072006
200549,430
6,665.0
86,422
5,913.0
228,178
12,777
83,374
21,070
91,935
35,359
BELEXTransactions
January - September
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
20092008
20072006
2005
139,751,679
56,922,002
703,104,752
66,247,400
1,422,773,049
181,313,399
612,153,298
102,496,286
315,081,852
79,389,356
BELEXTurnover (€)
January - September
mill
ion €
Serbian Capital MarketSHARES – Owners ship structure 2009
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 10
0-5%; 895,756
5-10%; 1
10-25%; 1
25-33%; 298
33-50%; 263
50-66%; 296
66-75%; 782
75-100%; 457
Number of shareholders with percentage of ownership in
capitalSeptember 30th 2009
shares in ownership of natural persons
<5%; 14% shares in ownership of natural persons >5%; 6%
shares in ownership of legal entities;
49%
socially owned capital;
2%
Share Fund and Pension and Dis-ability Insur-ance
Fund; 6%
custody bills; 2%
rest; 21%
Ownership structureSeptember 30th 2009
11
Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES – Number of transactions and turnover 2007 - 2009
January – September
SHARES Number of transaction Turnover
2008number
index(2008/2007)
million €URindex
(2008/2007)
86.422 37,9 703,1 49,4
2009number
index(2009/2008)
million €URindex
(2009/2009)
49.430 57,2 139,8 19,9
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
January - December
SHARES Number of transaction Turnover
2007number
index(2007/2006)
million €URindex
(2007/2006)
285.566 246,2 1.843,8 175,7
2008number
index(2008/2007)
million €URindex
(2008/2007)
110.787 38,8 816,9 44,3
12
Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES – Market Capitalization
Market Capitalization
SHARES December 31st 2008 September 30th 2009 index
Total number of “listed” stock companies 1.864 1.835 98,4
Total book valueof shares(last known)
billion €UR7,5
billion €UR7,3
97,4
Total market valueof shares
billion €UR8,7
billion €UR 8,9 102,6
Market value/book value(last known)
1,15 1,21 105,4
Market capitalization(2008.)
/GDP(estimate, 2007.) 0,25
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES - Market Capitalization by Sectors (structure)
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 13
Agriculture 4%
Industry 49%
Construction 6%
Trade, Tourism 8%
Financial Intermediati
on, Transport
30%
Other activities
3%
Market Capitalization by Sectors (structure)
September 30th 2009
Agriculture9%
Industry42%
Energetic0%
Construction12%
Trade, Tourism
20%
Financial Intermediati
on, Transport
7%
Other activities
10%
Numbers of Companies by Sectors (structure)
September 30th 2009
14
Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES – Market Value/Book Value
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
15
Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES – Movement of prices and turnover (Index BELEX15)
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
16
Serbian Capital MarketBELEX - Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES – Foreign Investors Participation
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
17
Serbian Capital MarketSHARES – Take over
Total number of stock companies that have been taken over (closed)
2008 (number) 133
2009 (number) 76
index (2009/2008) 54,1
Total value of purchased shares
2008 (million €UR) 126,3
2009 (million €UR) 15,3
index (2009/2008) 12,1
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
January - September
January - September
18
Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeBONDS (A) – Number of transactions and turnover 2007 - 2009
January – September
BONDS(A) Number of transaction Turnover
2008number
index(2008/2007)
million €URindex
(2008/2007)
5.913 46,3 66,5 36,7
2009number
index(2009/2008)
million €URindex
(2009/2009)
6.665 112,7 56,9 85,9
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
January - December
BONDS(A) Number of transaction Turnover
2007number
index(2007/2006)
million €URindex
(2007/2006)
15.644 61,3 207,1 130,5
2008number
index(2008/2007)
million €URindex
(2008/2007)
8.214 52,5 88,5 42,7
19
Serbian Capital MarketBELEX Belgrade Stock ExchangeBONDS (A) – Prices and yields
Maturitydate
Price(maturity day=100%)
(average – daily)
Yield(on annual basis)
(A) 2008January-September
2009January-September
2008January-September
2009January-September
2010. 89,20% 96,35% 7,10% 5,74%
2011. 83,20% 91,28% 7,14% 5,63%
2012. 78,00% 86,36% 7,01% 5,65%
2013. 72,40% 81,82% 7,16% 5,62%
2014. 67,00% 78,12% 7,32% 5,43%
2015. 63,50% 73,38% 7,05% 5,61%
2016. 59,30% 70,65% 7,05% 5,35%
Average (w): 75.98% 82,57% 6.71% 5,58%
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
Yield (on annual basis) 1 year 5 year 10 year
Government bonds - Germany 0,91% 2,38% 3,22%
Government bonds - USA 0,56% 1,80% 2,86%
20
Serbian Capital MarketRepublic of Serbia – Ministry of FinanceTreasury Bills – Turnover, Average weighted discount rate, Average yields
January – September
MATURITYDATE
(91 days)TURNOVER
AVERAGE WEIGHTEDDISCOUNT RATE(on annual basis)
AVERAGEYIELD
(on annual basis)
2008million €UR
index(2008/2007)
rate%
index(2008/2007)
yield(%)
index(2008/2007)
85,8 57,1 4,46% 64,1 4,62% 63,1
2009million €UR
index(2009/2008)
rate%
index(2009/2008)
yield(%)
index(2009/2008)
1.469,1 1.510,9 13,24% 269,7 14,15% 277,9
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
21
Serbian Capital MarketOpen Mutual FundsAsset Values
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
Open Mutual Fund
Asset Value
31.12.2007 31.12.2008 30.09.2009
naziv početak rada €UR €UR €UR
1 Delta Dynamics 30.01.2008 - 506,244 430,545
2 Delta Plus 08.03.2007 18,677,227 4,353,867 2,900,375
3 Erste Balanced 30.03.2009 - - 305,282
4 FIMA Novac 22.06.2009 - - 272,894
5 FIMA Proactive 07.05.2007 13,063,015 3,855,750 2,782,640
6 Focus Novčani Fond 06.11.2008 - 227,743 112,219
7 Focus Premium 07.09.2007 4,090,412 794,103 446,970
8 HYPO Balance 28.07.2008 - 443,321 548,119
9 Ilirika JIE 25.12.2007 545,154 228,942 284,913
10 KD Ekskluziv 27.12.2007 307,216 119,870 177,876
11 Kombank InFond 28.05.2008 - 986,843 1,150,596
12 Raiffeisen Akcije 16.08.2007 14,258,566 3,189,212 2,457,793
13 Triumph 21.02.2008 - 543,309 640,833
TOTAL 50,941,590 15,249,204 12,511,055
Index 100.00 29.93 24.55
Serbian Capital MarketOpen Mutual FundsAsset Values
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 22
0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000
Total Asset Value (€)December 31st 2007
Delta Plus FIMA Proactive
Raiffeisen Akcije Focus Premium
Ilirika JIE KD Ekskluziv
€UR
0 5000000 10000000 15000000
Total Asset Value (€)September 30th 2009
Delta Dynamic Delta Plus FIMA Proactive
Focus Novčani Fond HYPO Balance Ilirika JIE
#REF! KD Ekskluziv Kombank InFond
Raiffeisen Akcije Triumph
€UR
Serbian Capital MarketOpen Mutual Funds Net Asset Values – Rate of yield in relation to value in the beginning
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 23
-80.00% -60.00% -40.00% -20.00% 0.00% 20.00%-55.9%
-63.0%-34.8%
12.2%2.4%
-66.1%2.2%
-72.5%2.2%
-60.0%-58.0%
-25.9%-69.7%
-42.5%
Net Asset Value (€)Rate of Yield in relation to value in
the beginning (%)September 30th 2009
Investiciona jedinica-10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00%
13.79%
37.19%
5.24%
-1.71%
5.98%
0.36%
0.84%
Net Asset Value (€)Rate of Yield in realtion to value in
the biginning (%)December 31st 2007
Investiciona jedinica
24
Serbian Capital MarketExchange rate €UR/Din(middle, NBS)
Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission
Serbian capital market Regional Conference
Economic Crisis and Responses of Capital Market Regulators
Belgrade, December 3, 2009
REPUBLIC OF SERBIA - SECURITIES COMMISSION
Milko ŠtimacChairman of the Securities Commission of the Republic of Serbia