september 2021 public review draft lincoln mpo 2050 long
TRANSCRIPT
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L I N C O L N M P O 2 0 5 0 L O N G R A N G E TRANSPORTATION P L A N U P D A T E
Required Credit / Disclaimer Statement “The preparation of the document was financed in part with
funding from the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) and administered by the Nebraska Department of Transportation (NDOT). The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent USDOT, or NDOT.”
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Acknowledgements The Lincoln Metropolitan Planning Organization would like to acknowledge the following who provided input in the development of the 2050 Long Range Transportation Plan.
MPO Officials Committee Leirion Gaylor Baird, Mayor, City of Lincoln
James Michael Bowers, Chair, City Council
Tammy Ward, Vice-Chair, City Council
Rick Vest, Chair, County Board
Deb Schorr, Vice-Chair, County Board
Richard Meginnis, City Council
Sean Flowerday, County Board
John Selmer, Director, Nebraska Department of Transportation (representative Ryan Huff)
MPO Technical Committee David Cary, Tri-Chair, Director, Lincoln-Lancaster County Planning Department Pam Dingman, Tri-Chair, Lancaster County Engineer Elizabeth Elliott, Tri-Chair, Director, Lincoln Transportation and Utilities Department Ronald Caldi, Assistant Director of Transportation (City Engineer), Lincoln Transportation and Utilities Department (representative Thomas Shafer and previous member Lonnie Burkland) Roger Figard, Executive Director, Railroad Transportation Safety District Paul Barnes, Long Range Principal Planner, Lincoln-Lancaster County Planning Department Larry Legg, Assistant County Engineer, Lancaster County Engineering Erin Sokolik, Assistant City Engineer, Lincoln Transportation and Utilities Department Kellee Van Bruggen, Multi-Modal Transportation Planner, Lincoln-Lancaster County Planning Department
Dan Marvin, Director, Lincoln Urban Development Department (representative Wynn Hjermstad or Richard Bishop) Gary Bergstrom, Air Quality Supervisor, Lincoln-Lancaster County Health Department Lynn Johnson, Director, Lincoln Parks & Recreation Department (representative Sara Hartzell or Robert Bartja) Michael Davis, Transit Manager, StarTran (representative Brian Prauner) David Haring, Executive Director, Lincoln Airport Authority (representative Chad Lay) Tom Goodbarn, District 1 Engineer, Nebraska Department of Transportation Craig Wacker, Planning and Project Development Manager, Nebraska Department of Transportation Kelly Oelke, City Administrator, City of Hickman Stephanie Fisher, City Administrator, City of Waverly
Non Voting Members Justin Luther, Federal Highway Administration
Gerri Doyle, Federal Transit Administration
Susan Larson Rodenburg, Pedestrian & Bicycle Advisory Committee
Paul Zillig, Lower Platte South NRD
Community Committee Tracy Corr, Planning Commission Tom Beckius, Planning Commission Alonzo Ball, Planning Commission Dick Campbell, Planning Commission Tracy Edgerton, Planning Commission Deane Finnegan, Planning Commission Cristy Joy, Planning Commission
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Cindy Ryman Yost, Planning Commission Dennis Scheer, Planning Commission Burdette Piening, Agriculture Silas Clarke, Small Communities Sam Manzitto, Developer Nader Sepahpur, Business Owner Bryan Seck, Economic Development DaNay Kalkowski, Development Attorney Marilyn McNabb, Sustainability/Resiliency Meghan Sittler, Natural Resources/Spring Creek Prairie Peter Hind, Design/Architect Karalyn Hoefer, Realty Anna Eickholt, Country Club Neighborhood Association Vishnu Reddi, Near South Neighborhood Association Megan Ourada, UPCO (Neighborhood Association) Grant Daily, South Salt Creek NA Susan Larson Rodenburg, Multi-Modal/ Pedestrian and Bicyclist Advisory Committee Jose Lemus/Kieran Kissler, Underrepresented Demographic Groups/ Civic Nebraska Marco Barker, Education/UNL Steve Ingracia, Technology/Engineering Firm Todd Ogden, Downtown Lincoln Association Sheila Dorsey Vinton, Health/Human Services/Asian Community and Cultural Center Kelly Oelke, City of Hickman Dave Johnson, Architect Stephanie Fischer, City of Waverly
Project Oversight Planning Committee Paul Barnes, Lincoln-Lancaster County Planning Department
Andrew Thierolf, Lincoln-Lancaster County Planning Department
Kellee Van Bruggen, Lincoln-Lancaster County Planning Department
Allan Zafft, Lincoln-Lancaster County Planning Department
Thomas Shafer, Lincoln Transportation and Utilities Department
Dan Carpenter, Lincoln Transportation and Utilities Department (previous member Mark Lutjeharms)
Erin Sokolik, Lincoln Transportation and Utilities Department
Roberto Partida, Lincoln Transportation and Utilities Department
Brian Praeuner, StarTran
Wynn Hjermstad, Lincoln Urban Development Department
Sara Hartzell, Lincoln Parks & Recreation Department
Bobby Bartja, Lincoln Parks & Recreation Department
Larry Legg, Lancaster County Engineering
Chris Schroeder, Lincoln-Lancaster County Health Department
Gary Bergstrom, Lincoln-Lancaster County Health Department
Craig Wacker, Nebraska Department of Transportation
Justin Luther, Federal Highway Administration
Gerri Doyle, Federal Transit Administration
Consultant Team Felsburg Holt & Ul lev ig
Jenny Young, Project Manager
Jesse Poore, Deputy Project Manager
Jessica Jurzenski
Megan Ornelas
Ajdin Hamzagic
Dale Tischmak
Cambridge Systemat ics
Sean McAtee
Mathew Trostle
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Table of Contents Page
1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1-1 Metropolitan Planning Organization ............................................................................................................................. 1-3
Reason for Planning .................................................................................................................................................................. 1-3
Compliance with Federal Regulations .......................................................................................................................... 1-4
Plan Update Process ................................................................................................................................................................. 1-7
Completed Projects ................................................................................................................................................................... 1-8
2. Vision, Goals, and Performance Measures ............................................................................. 2-1 Transportation Vision and Goals....................................................................................................................................... 2-2
Performance Measures .......................................................................................................................................................... 2-6
3. Outreach and Public Participation ........................................................................................... 3-1
Public Engagement Process ............................................................................................................................................... 3-1
Public Engagement Stakeholders .................................................................................................................................. 3-7
Key Themes of Public Input ................................................................................................................................................ 3-9
4. Current and Future Needs Assessment .............................................................................. 4-1
Land Use and Demographics.............................................................................................................................................. 4-1
Travel Patterns and Trends ................................................................................................................................................ 4-16
Roads and Bridges ................................................................................................................................................................. 4-22
Active Transportation ............................................................................................................................................................ 4-41
Transit .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 4-51
Intermodal Connections ..................................................................................................................................................... 4-53
Rail .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 4-54
Existing Freight System ...................................................................................................................................................... 4-56
Existing Airports and Airfields ......................................................................................................................................... 4-59
Safety .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 4-62
5. Needs Based Plan ........................................................................................................................... 5-1 Roadway ............................................................................................................................................................................................5-2
Goods and Freight Movement ........................................................................................................................................ 5-22
Airports and Airfields .............................................................................................................................................................. 5-23
Bicycle .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 5-23
Pedestrian ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 5-26
Trails ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 5-26
Transit ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 5-31
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6. Funding Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 6-1
Revenue Forecasts ..................................................................................................................................................................... 6-1
Resource Allocation ................................................................................................................................................................. 6-15
Funding Strategy ..................................................................................................................................................................... 6-22
Future Funding Considerations ..................................................................................................................................... 6-25
7. Fiscally Constrained Plan ............................................................................................................. 7-1
Project Prioritization Process ............................................................................................................................................. 7-2
Fiscally Constrained Plan Elements ............................................................................................................................... 7-6
Future Congestion Levels ................................................................................................................................................... 7-23
Air Quality ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 7-26
Environmental Justice and Equity ............................................................................................................................... 7-30
Illustrative Plan ......................................................................................................................................................................... 7-34
8. Implementation Plan .................................................................................................................... 8-1
Policies and Action Steps ....................................................................................................................................................... 8-1
Mitigating Impacts to Environmental, Social, and Cultural Resources ............................................... 8-30
Relationship to Transportation Improvement Program ................................................................................ 8-35
Amendment Process ............................................................................................................................................................. 8-35
Appendices Appendix A – LRTP Meetings
Appendix B – Public Engagement Summaries
Appendix C – Land Use Forecasts
Appendix D – Travel Demand Model Documentation and User Guide
Appendix E – Congestion Management Process
Appendix F – Project Prioritization Process
Appendix G – Roadway and Trail Project Scoring Results
Appendix H – Environmental Overview
List of Figures Figure 1.1 Lincoln Metropolitan Planning Area ....................................................................................................... 1-2
Figure 1.2 Major Projects Completed Since 2017 LRTP ....................................................................................... 1-9
Figure 2.1 PlanForward Themes and LRTP Goals .................................................................................................. 2-2
Figure 2.2 Equity Measure of Transit Service Frequency ................................................................................. 2-15
Figure 2.3 Equity Measure Access to On-Street and Trail Network .......................................................... 2-16
Figure 2.4 Equity Measure of Travel Time to Work .............................................................................................. 2-17
Figure 2.5 Equity Measure of Road Conditions ......................................................................................................2-18
Figure 3.1 Phases of LRTP Public Engagement Strategy .................................................................................. 3-1
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Figure 3.2 Distribution of Comments by Transportation Topic .....................................................................3-2 Figure 3.3 Perception of Ease of Travel by Mode 2016 and 2020 ..................................................................3-3 Figure 3.4 Public Input about the Most Pressing Transportation Challenges .................................... 3-4 Figure 3.5 Public Survey and Focus Group Distribution of Transportation Funding ......................3-5 Figure 3.6 Goals Ranked by Focus Groups and the Public .............................................................................. 3-8 Figure 3.7 Four Future Workshop Scenarios for 2050 ........................................................................................ 3-8
Figure 4.1 Lincoln Metropolitan Planning Areas .................................................................................................... 4-2 Figure 4.2 Household Growth ............................................................................................................................................. 4-3 Figure 4.3 Commercial Growth .......................................................................................................................................... 4-5 Figure 4.4 Industrial Growth ................................................................................................................................................ 4-6 Figure 4.5 Equity Index ............................................................................................................................................................ 4-9 Figure 4.6 Older Adults .......................................................................................................................................................... 4-10 Figure 4.7 People with Disabilities .................................................................................................................................. 4-11 Figure 4.8 People with Limited English Proficiency .......................................................................................... 4-12 Figure 4.9 Single Parent Households ........................................................................................................................... 4-13 Figure 4.10 People with Low Income ............................................................................................................................. 4-14 Figure 4.11 BIPOC Communities ...................................................................................................................................... 4-15 Figure 4.12 Workflows .............................................................................................................................................................. 4-16 Figure 4.13 Travel Time to Work ........................................................................................................................................ 4-16 Figure 4.14 Distance from Home to Work .................................................................................................................. 4-17 Figure 4.15 Distance and Direction from Home to Work.................................................................................. 4-17 Figure 4.16 Housing + Transportation Index .............................................................................................................. 4-18 Figure 4.17 Zero Vehicle Households ............................................................................................................................. 4-21 Figure 4.18 Roadway Surface Conditions (2017) ..................................................................................................... 4-23 Figure 4.19 Roadway Surface Conditions by Percent (2018) .......................................................................... 4-24 Figure 4.20 City of Lincoln Surface Maintenance Activity ................................................................................ 4-25 Figure 4.21 Bridge Ratings ................................................................................................................................................... 4-26 Figure 4.22 National Highway System .......................................................................................................................... 4-27 Figure 4.23 Existing Functional Classification .......................................................................................................... 4-30 Figure 4.24 Existing Through Lanes ................................................................................................................................ 4-31 Figure 4.25 Current (2019) Daily Traffic Volumes.................................................................................................... 4-32 Figure 4.26 Current Congestion Levels V/C ............................................................................................................... 4-34 Figure 4.27 Congestion Levels Over Time .................................................................................................................. 4-35 Figure 4.28 2035 Daily Traffic Forecasts E+C ............................................................................................................. 4-36 Figure 4.29 2050 Daily Traffic Forecasts E+C............................................................................................................. 4-37 Figure 4.30 2035 Congestion Levels E+C ..................................................................................................................... 4-38 Figure 4.31 2050 Congestion Levels E+C ..................................................................................................................... 4-39 Figure 4.32 Annual Electric Vehicle Sales in Nebraska ...................................................................................... 4-40 Figure 4.33 BikeLNK Ridership .......................................................................................................................................... 4-42
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Figure 4.34 Bike Demand and Bikeshare Locations ............................................................................................ 4-43 Figure 4.35 Trail and On-Street Bicycle Activity ...................................................................................................... 4-44 Figure 4.36 Citywide Network Bicycle Level of Stress ......................................................................................... 4-45 Figure 4.37 Existing On-street Bike Network ........................................................................................................... 4-47 Figure 4.38 Future County Bike Trail Connections ............................................................................................... 4-48 Figure 4.39 Existing Sidewalks and Trails .................................................................................................................... 4-50 Figure 4.40 StarTran Ridership ............................................................................................................................................ 4-51 Figure 4.41 StarTran Fixed Bus Routes ......................................................................................................................... 4-52 Figure 4.42 Autonomous Microtransit: Downtown Concept ......................................................................... 4-53 Figure 4.43 Railroad At-grade Crossings ..................................................................................................................... 4-55 Figure 4.44 Major Truck Corridors .................................................................................................................................... 4-56 Figure 4.45 Freight Movement by Tons and Value (2015) ................................................................................ 4-58 Figure 4.46 Freight Movement by Tons and Value (2045) ............................................................................... 4-58 Figure 4.47 Truck Routes and Destinations ............................................................................................................... 4-59 Figure 4.48 Lincoln Airport Environs Noise District .............................................................................................. 4-60 Figure 4.49 Lancaster County Airports and Airfields ............................................................................................ 4-61 Figure 4.50 Injury and Fatality Crashes per 100K Population ........................................................................ 4-62 Figure 4.51 Crash Severity ..................................................................................................................................................... 4-62 Figure 4.52 National Proportion of Fatalities Inside/Outside Vehicle, 1997–2018 .............................. 4-64 Figure 5.1 Urban Area Roadway Capital Projects .................................................................................................. 5-4 Figure 5.2 Rural Road Capital Projects ......................................................................................................................... 5-16 Figure 5.3 NDOT Highway Projects ................................................................................................................................ 5-21 Figure 5.4 Recommended Bike Network .................................................................................................................. 5-25 Figure 5.5 Trail Projects .........................................................................................................................................................5-28
Figure 6.1 Committed and Restricted Funds by Category ............................................................................ 6-18 Figure 6.2 Community Input on Funding Priorities .......................................................................................... 6-20 Figure 6.3 Project Oversight Planning Committee and Community Committee Input
on Resource Allocation Scenarios .......................................................................................................... 6-22 Figure 6.4 Comparison of Resource Allocation Scenarios .............................................................................. 6-23 Figure 6.5 Recommended Resource Allocation ($M) ...................................................................................... 6-24 Figure 7.1 Fiscally Constrained Rural Road & Bridge Capital Projects ................................................... 7-10 Figure 7.2 Fiscally Constrained Urban Roadway Capital Projects .............................................................7-16 Figure 7.3 Priority Trail Projects ........................................................................................................................................ 7-21 Figure 7.4 Congestion Levels............................................................................................................................................. 7-23 Figure 7.5 2035 Congestion Levels (Fiscally Constrained Plan) ................................................................. 7-24 Figure 7.6 2050 Congestion Levels (Fiscally Constrained Plan) .................................................................. 7-25 Figure 7.7 Example Pollutant Emission Rates for Lincoln Arterial Streets (May weekday
during 11AM hour) ............................................................................................................................................. 7-29
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Figure 7.8 Typical Weekday Pollutant Emission Totals for Fiscally Constrained Road Network .................................................................................................................................................... 7-30
Figure 7.9 Illustrative Plan (Unfunded) NDOT Highway Projects .............................................................. 7-35 Figure 7.10 Illustrative Plan (Unfunded) Rural Road & Bridge Capital Projects ................................ 7-38 Figure 7.11 Illustrative Plan (Unfunded) Urban Roadway Capital Projects .......................................... 7-42 Figure 7.12 Illustrative Plan (Unfunded) Trail Projects ....................................................................................... 7-45
List of Tables Table 1.1 Major Projects Completed Since 2017 LRTP ....................................................................................... 1-8
Table 2.1 Relationship of LRTP Goals to FAST Act Requirements .............................................................2-5
Table 4.1 Household and Employment Growth ................................................................................................... 4-4 Table 4.2 Socioeconomic Indicators ............................................................................................................................. 4-8 Table 4.3 Commuter Mode Split ................................................................................................................................... 4-17 Table 4.4 Bridge Conditions ............................................................................................................................................ 4-25 Table 4.5 Planning Level Daily Capacities (Per Through Lane) ............................................................... 4-33 Table 4.6 Vehicle Miles Traveled ................................................................................................................................... 4-35 Table 4.7 City Intersections Above Critical Crash Rates................................................................................ 4-63 Table 5.1 Urban Area Roadway Capital Projects ...................................................................................................5-5 Table 5.2 Two Plus Center Turn Lane Projects ...................................................................................................... 5-11 Table 5.3 Candidate Railroad Grade Separated Crossing Projects ......................................................... 5-13 Table 5.4 Rural Road Capital Projects ......................................................................................................................... 5-17 Table 5.5 NDOT Highway Projects ............................................................................................................................... 5-22 Table 5.6 Trail Projects ......................................................................................................................................................... 5-29
Table 6.1 NDOT Highways Program Funding ($M) ............................................................................................. 6-1 Table 6.2 Rural Roads Program Funding ($M) ...................................................................................................... 6-3 Table 6.3 Urban Roads Program Funding ($M) .................................................................................................... 6-8 Table 6.4 Rail Crossing Program Funds ($M) .......................................................................................................... 6-9 Table 6.5 Transit Program Funds ($M) ....................................................................................................................... 6-12 Table 6.6 Trails, Bicycle and Pedestrian Program Funds ($M) .................................................................. 6-14 Table 6.7 Total Revenue Forecasts ($M) .................................................................................................................... 6-15 Table 6.8 Funding Commitments and Restrictions ......................................................................................... 6-16 Table 6.9 Flexible Funds ..................................................................................................................................................... 6-19 Table 7.1 Resource Allocation ............................................................................................................................................ 7-1 Table 7.2 Roadway Project Evaluation Criteria ...................................................................................................... 7-4 Table 7.3 Trail Projects Evaluation Criteria ............................................................................................................... 7-5 Table 7.4 Weights by Goal Area and Project Category .................................................................................... 7-6 Table 7.5 Fiscally Constrained Rural Road & Bridge Capital Projects ..................................................... 7-8 Table 7.6 Fiscally Constrained Urban Roadway Capital Projects ............................................................. 7-13
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Table 7.7 Priority Transit Projects ................................................................................................................................. 7-18 Table 7.8 Priority Trail Projects ...................................................................................................................................... 7-20 Table 7.9 On-Street Bike Projects to be Constructed with Fiscally Constrained
Roadway Projects ............................................................................................................................................. 7-22 Table 7.10 Daily Travel Time ............................................................................................................................................... 7-26 Table 7.11 Composite Vehicle Pollutant Emission Rates ............................................................................... 7-28 Table 7.12 Composite Daily Pollutant Total Emissions (tons per day) ................................................... 7-28 Table 7.13 Illustrative Plan (Unfunded) NDOT Highway Projects ............................................................. 7-34 Table 7.14 Illustrative Plan (Unfunded) Rural Road & Bridge Capital Projects ................................. 7-36 Table 7.15 Illustrative Plan (Unfunded) Urban Roadway Capital Projects ........................................... 7-39 Table 7.16 Illustrative Plan (Unfunded) Trail Projects ....................................................................................... 7-43
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List of Acronyms ACS American Community Survey
AFV alternatively fueled vehicle
ASP Agency Safety Plan
AV automated vehicle
BIPOC Black, Indigenous, People of Color
BRT bus rapid transit
CMP Congestion Management Process
CNG compressed natural gas
CNT Center for Neighborhood Technology
CO2 carbon dioxide
CUFC/CRFC Critical Urban Freight Corridor/Critical Rural Freight Corridor
DHHS Department of Health and Human Services
E+C Existing + Committed
EJ environmental justice
FARS Fatality Analysis Reporting System
FAST Act Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act
FAT fatality
FFPP Federal Funds Purchase Program
FHWA Federal Highway Administration
FTA Federal Transit Administration
FY fiscal year
GPTN Great Plains Trails Network
HISP Highway Safety Improvement Program
H+T Housing and Transportation
INJ injury
ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991
ITS intelligent transportation systems
LEHD US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
LOS level of service
LOTM Lincoln on the Move
LRTP Long Range Transportation Plan
LTS level of traffic stress
LTU Lincoln Transportation and Utilities
LWCF Land and Water Conservation Fund
MAP-21 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century
MMTC Multimodal Transportation Center
MOVES3 US Environmental Protection Agency Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator software
MPA Metropolitan Planning Area
MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization
NAASQ National Ambient Air Quality Standards
NDOT Nebraska Department of Transportation
NHFN National Highway Freight Network
NHPP National Highway Performance Program
NHS National Highway System
NOx oxides of nitrogen
NRD National Resources District
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NSP Federal Transit Administration National Public Transportation Safety Plan
O&LB Omaha, Lincoln & Beatrice Railway
O&M Operations and Maintenance
OPPD Omaha Public Power District
PDO property damage only
PM2.5 particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter
POPC Project Oversight Planning Committee
RAISE Rebuilding American Infrastructure with Sustainability and Equity
ROW right-of-way
RTSD Railroad Transportation Safety District
SAFETEA-LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users
SGR state of good repair
SHSP Strategic Highway Safety Plan
SOV single occupant vehicle
STBG Surface Transportation Block Grant Program
TAMP Transit Asset Management Plan
TAZ transportation analysis zone
TDM Travel Demand Management
TDP Transit Development Plan
TEA-21 Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century of 1998
TERM Transit Economic Requirements Model
TIP Transportation Improvement Program
TMA Transportation Management Area
TNC Transportation Network Companies
TPM Transportation Performance Management
ULB useful life benchmark
UNL University of Nebraska – Lincoln
UPRR Union Pacific Railroad
UPWP United Planning Work Program
USACE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
USDOT US Department of Transportation
USPS United States Postal Service
V/C volume to capacity
VHT vehicle hours of travel
VMT vehicle miles of travel
VOC volatile organic compound
VRM vehicle revenue mile