sentiment analysis report for we 180512 - proshare

7/31/2019 Sentiment Analysis Report for WE 180512 - Proshare

1/8

Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 180512

www.proshareng.com 1

Sentiment Analysis Report W/E May 18, 2012Sunday, May 20, 2012/ Proshare Research

The Diagnosis

Analysis of the market activity in the week ended May 18th 2012 technically reveals asustained decline in market optimism and continued weak bargain drive with significantincrease in profit-taking activities in the investors trading pattern as against a moderate

decline in market optimism and weak bargain drive with growing speculative activitiesobserved in the previous weeks performance.

In the week just ended, sustained feeble bargainandgrowing profit taking wasobserved across the major sectors as market sentiments remained negative, mainlytowards big and medium CAP stocks. However, there exist sustained and growingbargain drives in a few active sectors while sustained moderate sell tendency extends to

more unattractive sectors.

Nevertheless, the sustained moderate sell tendencyoutweighed the weak buy side asmost active and liquid stocks still trade within overbought range while the shorttermist remained in control of market direction - a major reason for the increase in

profit-taking propensity and pessimistic activities in the market.

To date, the indecisive posture of the market remains high, alongside a renewed growing

activity level as sideline attendants appeared to take cautious positions subtly, yetremain a significant feature.

Prescription and the likely expectation in the coming periods: The position of theAll Share Index (ASI) is still within the overbought range, indicating the possibility ofextending price correction as most of the active and value stocks are still trading withinoverbought region.

Meanwhile the chance of a sustained moderate volatility in the coming weeks hasincreased as invetors are likely to be more cautious amid sustained speculative trading -

a pointer to further market price volatility.

Market Diagnostic Score Card

Market Gauges Scores Remarks

ASI -1.07%

The negative posture was significantly impacted byactivities towards big and medium cap stocks acrossthe sectors. Weak bargain and increased selltendency was observed when compared to -0.19%loss recorded in the previous week.

Market Breadth Negative

This confirms the increase in pessimism andprofittaking tendencywitnessed in the week which furtherreflects the continued sell tendency towards bigand medium caps.

Market RSI62.21

(Healthy)

The market RSI shows that market is gainingdecliningmomentumwhile it may move into weakposture. Market RSI closed lower as against previousweek of 73.34. More importantly, this indicatesfurther that market is going through short termcorrection still. The trend may continue for fewsessions as the RSI is still within overbought range.

Indecision level (%) 57.25%

Illiquidity of some stocks, low purchasing power, lowrisk appetite, feeble confidence and wary posture ofinvestors reflected here significantly- This isconsidered too high- an improved posture against60.71% observed in the previous week.

Optimism Level (%) 18.84%

There is a decline in the optimism level of the marketagainst the previous outlook of22.86%. Also, therewas weak bargain tendency as the optimistic

activity on the bourse closed lower at 12.35%,against total market activity, from 39.13% recordedin the previous week.


2/8



Pessimism Level (%) 23.91%

There is sustained increase in pessimism level inthe market - an unimpressive posture over theprevious outlook of16.43%.

This shows that 23.91% of market participants in theweek were pessimistic about the market. However,there was a significant increase in the pessimisticactivity level to close higherat 68.57%, against totalmarket activity, from 59.53% recorded in the

previous week.

Source: Proshare Research

Technically, market sentiments during the week favoured liquid and active stocks ofMedium and Large CAP categories in the Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Oil & Gas

and Construction/Real Estate sector(s) in that order which further revealed thesectors investors patronised in the week.

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against theAgriculture, Consumer Goods, ICT, Services, Financial Services and Healthcaresector(s)as sell sentiments was stronger in the sector(s).

Sector Performance Sector Movers Direction & Trading Psychology

Conglomerates 2.81% TRANSCORP, UACN

Industrial Goods 0.92%BAGCO, PAINTCOM, CAP,

BERGER

Oil & Gas 0.36% FO, JAPAULOIL

Growing and sustained activebargain tendency observed in the

sector(s), indicating attractive posture ofthe stock(s)within the sector(s)

Construction/RealEstate

0.04% JBERGER

Continued but waning bargaintendency observed, indicating subtle

profit taking in the sector(s). Short trendreversal is not in doubt in the coming

periods.

Natural Resources 0.00% Indecisive (No active transactions)

Agriculture -0.05% OKOMUOIL

Consumer Goods -0.54%

NESTLE, NB, FLOURMILL,HONYFLOUR,

DANGSUGAR, VITAFOAM,INTBREW

Mild sell tendency observed in thesector(s)- Speculative trading patterndictates the direction as profit taking

tendency gained momentum

ICT -0.59% HIS

Continued but waning sell tendencywas observed as bears extend

dominance - a short term rally in the

coming periods is not in doubt

Services -1.36% NAHCO, RTBRISCOE

Active sell tendency observed in thesector(s)- Speculative trading patterndictates the direction as profit taking

tendency gained momentum

Financial Services -1.37%

CONTINSURE,

DIAMONDBNK,SKYEBANK, UBN, FCMB

Healthcare -2.66% NEIMETH, FIDSON

Continued and Growing sellingtendency observed in the sector(s)

Source: Proshare Research

Stock Trend & Direction

We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performancein the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK,MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors sentiments towards the market movers.


3/8



THE BIG VOLUME

IHS Plcexperienced continued bearish sentiments in the week to record -4.7% loss as

against -4.9% loss recorded in the previous week - sustained and growing sell tendencywas observed towards the stock in the week as the bearish volume topped marketvolume for the week.

The price movement pattern suggests no bargain drive position as revealed bycandlestick, indicating the strong bearish tendency, buttressed by MACD. The priceposition below bottom Bollinger band indicates a good chance of continuing the

downtrend while the stock remains bearish in both short and mid-long term period asrevealed by its price moving average.

To buttress this point, the RSI revealed the depressed posture of the stock as far belowthe oversold region while the bearish volume experienced a significant surge toclose at 347.32million as against 225units traded previously.

Similarly, the Money Flow Index (MFI) sustained a prolonged negative position,indicating no inflow of cash into the stock over a long period amid continued sell-off.

However, the sudden big volume, which is the highest volume traded in the last two

years, may signify fresh interest towards the stock as some investors might betaking advantage of its depressed posture which may encourage a short term trendreversal, though the reliability is low.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock is in a bearish and depressed modewith a corresponding high chance of continuing the trend; amid investors sustained sell-off tendency. However, depressed price posture might incite short term trend reversal as

the new big volume signifies big interest. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSIand volume analysis.

UBA Plc experienced positive sentiments and improved moderate bargain positions aswe had envisaged in our previous Sentiment Analysis Report W/E May 11, 2012

The stock recorded a modest gain of 5.0% as against the -5.5% loss recorded in the

previous week - an improved but weak bargain tendency was observed towards thestock despite mixed sentiments caused by overall bearish sentiments in the market.


4/8


5/8



Technical conclusion on sentiments: the stock is currently in overbought range whileexperiencing strong bullish tendency. The possibility of a short term pull-back anytime

soon is not in doubt, though there is no sign of weakness in the uptrend momentum atthe moment. A cautious treading is advised amid possible continuation of price uptrendin the next few sessions. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

DANGFLOUR Plc experienced a sustained active bargain drive and continued positivesentiments as we have envisaged in our previous report. The stock recorded 15.3%

gain to close among top gainers in the week as against 26.8% gain recorded in the

previous week - sustained bullish sentiments witnessed as the stock closed above its8months high of N7.22kobo, recording a new 8months high of N7.29.

The stock remained in full bullish mode as revealed by its price moving average andbuttressed by MACD while volume trend revealed active accumulation in the week. Asimilar uptrend was observed in the money flow index (MFI).

However, the stock is trading at its top as suggested by RSI, indicating the stock iswithin overbought range. Also, a slight weakness was observed in the uptrendmomentum as indicated in the RSI and money flow trend.

The last candlestick formation (Black Marubuso) revealed heavy sell tendency, indicatingpossible short term pull-back in the next session.

Technical Conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments appear negative as

profit taking tendency is likely to overwhelm a possible bargain drive as stock recorded

41.1% gain cumulatively in the last 3 consecutive weeks. The -4.9% loss recorded

in the last session buttressed the high possibility of a short term pull-back in the coming

session.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.


6/8



THE LOSERS

UBN Plc experienced strong sell tendency and trend reversal sentiments as the stock

witnessed consistent price correction in the week to record -18.0% loss as against

+14.4% gain recorded in the previous week. An expected strong price correction trend

was observed while the stock erased the +14.4% gain recorded in the previous week.

The stock remained within the ambit of the bears while experiencing sell pressure as

revealed by MACD. Also, the price moving average revealed the stock to be in a neutralposition in both short and mid-long term period, buttressing the dominance of the bears

and the sell pressure noted above. Additionally, the price pattern indicates strong sell

pressure while the consistent falling price momentum confirms the consistent distribution

trend witnessed in the week.

The chance that the stock may dip further into a depressed or oversold region has

increased due to the absence of bargain tendency as revealed by the sharp fall in RSI

and money flow index (MFI).

Technical conclusion on sentiments: there is a moderate possibility for the falling

trend to continue in the next few sessions, considering the falling momentum amid anabsence of bargain drive is revealed by the candlestick pattern. However, a slight decline

in sell pressure was observed as indicated by the volume trend, suggesting the sell

pressure could cease anytime soon.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volumeanalysis.


7/8


8/8



Due Diligence

Valuation/Investment Ratio IHS UBA TRANSCORP DANGFLOUR UBN NAHCO

Book Value (N'm) 26,877 181,131 26,622 27,690 - 184,571 4,882

Book Value/Per Share 6.11 5.60 1.03 5.54 -10.90 3.97

Price to Book 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

EPS -0.12 0.43 0.18 0.17 -3.69 0.08

PE -19.14 9.39 4.04 41.01 -1.11 71.88

Profitability

ROE (%)-1.92% 7.61% 17.53% 3.05% 33.85% 2.07%

PAT Margin (%) -4.51% 25.58% 33.15% 1.62% -79.64% 6.47%

PBT Margin (%)-

16.37%29.74% 24.84% 1.81% -109.31% 10.19%

Revenue Growth 6.27% 32.94% 1.07% -3.77% -8.32% -2.19%

Proshare Research

Price Trend

Price Performance IHS UBA TRANSCORP DANGFLOUR UBN NAHCO

52 Weeks High 3.10 6.70 1.13 18.52 11.15 9.00

52 weeks Low 2.24 1.64 0.50 3.85 1.96 4.75

3 Month's (%) -13.51% 111.64% 46.00% 71.53% -47.63% -20.27%

6 Month's (%) -13.85% 42.86% 14.06% 17.66% 95.69% 11.32%

12 Month's (%) -20.28% -40.30% -33.03% -62.54% 32.79% -34.44%

Price Trend

Current Price 2.24 4.00 0.73 6.93 4.09 5.90

15 Days MA 2.34 3.86 0.59 5.58 4.42 7.56

30 Days MA 2.37 -3.32 0.55 4.93 3.85 7.79

50 Days MA 2.41 3.06 0.55 4.86 3.95 7.71

200 Days MA 2.61 3.13 0.65 6.41 4.22 6.50

Proshare Research

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statementshere represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You areresponsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we makeany claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are foryour guidance purpose only.

sentiment analysis report for we 180512 - proshare

Documents